美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：债务上限将随着宏伟的法案而提高。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，上周，众议院预算委员会以21:16的投票结果否决了特朗普力推的全面减税法 案"One Big, Beautiful Bill"，虽然后续投下反对票的强硬保守派议员中有四位选择了"弃权"，使得法案 最终以17：16的投票结果通过，但摩根大通认为，这暴露出共和党内部在财政政策优先级和立法时间表 上的深刻分歧。 法案核心内容与争议焦点 摩根大通在一份报告中表示，该法案旨在落实特朗普竞选承诺，核心内容包括： 税收政策：永久降低个人和企业税率，临时取消小费和加班费征税，将州和地方税收(SALT)抵扣上限 从1万美元提高至3万美元(适用于年收入低于40万美元的家庭)，并计划将债务上限提高4万亿美元。 财政紧缩：拟削减约1.5万亿美元开支，主要来自医疗补助(Medicaid)削减，预计未来十年可节省超9000 亿美元，但可能导致2034年至少860万人失去医疗保险。 经济影响：联合税收委员会(JCT)预测，法案未来十年将增加3.7万亿美元联邦债务;税收基金会则认为， 这对长期GDP增长的推动作用仅为0.6%，远低于2017年税改法案的 1.7%。负责任联邦预算委员会 (CRFB)进一步指出，如果法案中的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of U.S. Treasury investors has shifted from optimism regarding trade relations to concerns about the U.S. fiscal trajectory, particularly following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government credit rating, which is expected to lead to an increase in Treasury yields [1][3]. Group 1: Treasury Yields and Market Reactions - The Wells Fargo strategist team predicts that the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields will rise by 5 to 10 basis points due to the impact of Moody's downgrade [1]. - The 30-year Treasury yield has already reached 5%, marking the highest level since November 2023 [2]. - The bond market is closely monitoring developments in Congress regarding the proposed "Big, Beautiful Bill," which could significantly increase the already high debt level of $36 trillion [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - The proposed "Big, Beautiful Bill" could add trillions to the national debt, raising concerns among bond market participants about fiscal responsibility [3]. - Analysts suggest that the downgrade of U.S. debt ratings is not surprising given the ongoing fiscal expansion, which may lead large investors to shift away from U.S. Treasuries to other safe-haven assets [3]. - The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the proposed legislation could increase U.S. debt by approximately $3.3 trillion by 2034, or up to $5.2 trillion if temporary measures are extended [3]. Group 3: Urgency of Debt Ceiling Resolution - The U.S. Treasury Secretary is urging Congress to raise the federal debt ceiling before mid-July, as the government may reach a critical "X date" by August when it can no longer meet its obligations [5]. - Concerns about the debt ceiling are already being reflected in the yields of Treasury securities maturing in August, which are higher than those of securities maturing at other nearby dates [5]. - There is a consensus among Republicans to extend the tax cuts from 2017, but disagreements remain on how to offset the loss in tax revenue through spending cuts, which are limited due to mandatory spending commitments [5].

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（5.12-5.16） 关税博弈阶段性缓和，美国通胀仍在下行 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：加快构建科技金融体制，持续推进城市更新。5 月 13 日，中国－拉美 和加勒比国家共同体论坛第四届部长级会议在北京举行，同日，中国和巴西发 布关于强化携手构建中巴命运共同体的联合声明，未来我国自巴西进口有望持 续增加，中国企业向巴西出海投资的步伐也有望加快；14 日，科技部联合中 国人民银行等七部门发布《加快构建科技金融体制 力支撑高水平科技自立自 强的若干政策举措》，提出 15 项具体措施，推动金融资源精准投向科技创新 领域；同日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁主持召开民营企业座谈会，围绕经济 形势、稳就业稳经济政策落实等议题，系统回应民营企业关切，释放了强化政 策执行、法治保障和战略引导的积极信号；15 日，中办、国办印发《关于持 续推进城市更新行动的意见》，系统部署八大任务与六大支撑保障措施，城市 更新改造后续或将获得更多财政和融资等方面的支持。 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声 ...

Fundamental Analysis - U.S. officials stated they will not seek a devaluation of the dollar during trade negotiations, leading to a rapid rebound in the dollar and a decline in gold prices [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is the only member of the Trump administration's economic team handling these issues, and discussions on currency policy can only occur in his presence [1] - The House Republican leaders have introduced a new tax cut and spending reduction bill, which is expected to be voted on before Memorial Day and aims to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion to allow for future budget execution [1] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have seen a significant decline from a high of 3435.0 to a low of 3168.0, marking a drop of nearly $267, indicating a strong bearish trend [4] - The moving averages indicate a bearish arrangement, with the 60-period moving average crossing below the 100-period moving average [4] - Trading strategy suggests attempting to short at around 3208.0 with a stop loss at 3216.0 and targets set at 3185.0 and 3168.0 [5] Silver Analysis - Silver prices have shown a bullish trend from a low of 31.65 but have faced resistance at 33.68, leading to a recent decline to 32.07 [8] - The moving averages are flattening, but the 60-period moving average is turning down, indicating a weak bearish trend [8] - Suggested trading strategy includes shorting at around 32.53 with a stop loss at 32.73 and targets at 32.10 and 31.90 [9] Economic Events - A series of economic indicators are scheduled for release, including the UK's GDP and trade balance, Eurozone GDP and industrial output, and U.S. retail sales and PPI [10]

美国财政部副部长：相信八月是我们最早需要关注的触发债务上限的X日（X-Date）。 ...

Key Points - The report highlights a significant increase in US tariff revenue, which surged by 130% year-on-year to reach 16 billion USD in April [4] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated potential meetings with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to achieve a more comprehensive agreement [4] - The report notes that the 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 11.93 basis points to 4.0082%, while the 5-year and 10-year yields increased by 10.92 and 9.05 basis points, respectively [4] - Nissan is reported to be laying off approximately 15% of its global workforce [4] - Apple is considering raising prices for its iPhone product line set to be released in the fall [4] - The report mentions that CATL's initial public offering was fully subscribed on its first day [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1299.00, down 1.29% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 18708.34, up 4.35%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.81% to 42410.10 [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price increased by 1.69% to 64.99 USD [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed at 23549.46, up 2.98%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 3.01% to 8559.23 [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.82% to 3369.24 [5]

在共和党人就是否提高百万富翁的税率进行了数周的辩论之后，该提案并未包括对最富有的美国人增税。该法案将永久延续特朗普2017年税法中设定的 37%的个人最高税率。尽管特朗普上周还告诉众议院议长迈克·约翰逊，他希望对收入超过250万美元的个人征收39.6%的税率。 这份提案是共和党控制的众议院向本月内进行全院表决迈出的关键一步，也是特朗普立法议程的核心。然而，由于众议院共和党席位优势微弱，特朗普 需要党内几乎一致的支持才能通过该法案。 SALT上限调整：政治妥协与地区博弈 法案草案将州地方税扣除上限(SALT)从目前的1万美元提高至3万美元，适用于个人和夫妇，但对收入超过20万美元的单身纳税人或40万美元的联合申 报者设限。 SHMET 网讯：共和党公布万亿级税改方案，将SALT扣除限额提至3万美元，取消小费和加班税，剔除富人税增提议，同时寻求提高债务上限4万亿美 元。 美东时间周一，根据媒体报道，众议院税务委员会公布了特朗普税改方案，提出在未来十年减税超过4万亿美元，同时削减开支至少1.5万亿美元。根据 报道，该法案还寻求将国家债务上限提高4万亿美元，低于参议院倾向的5万亿美元水平。这一举措旨在将任何额外债务上 ...

美国财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）上周五表示，如果届时不提高或暂停联邦债务上限，美国可能会 耗尽现金。此后，美国国债投资者又开始回避8月到期的国债。周一，受美国股票需求激增的影响，美 国国债收益率普遍上涨。在贝森特向美国立法者发出警告后，8月到期的美国国债收益率涨幅位居前 列。8月国债收益率已达到所有期限（从四周到一年）的最高水平，部分原因是投资者预计美联储将在9 月降息。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that all treasury yield curves seem to be declining, making it difficult to determine whether this is driven by the debt ceiling or recent tariff news [1] - The strategist believes that the price of three-month treasury bonds is cheaper compared to surrounding bonds, suggesting that incorporating the debt ceiling into pricing is reasonable due to updated guidance from the Treasury for August maturities [1]