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中美经贸磋商机制首次会议为全球经济注入确定性|专家热评
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-13 06:53
何立峰副总理强调"贸易战没有赢家",并提出中美双方要"进一步发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用,不断 增进共识、减少误解、加强合作"。 作为发展阶段、经济制度不同的两个大国,中美双方在经贸合作中出现分歧和摩擦是正常的。然而,国 际贸易不可忽视的本质是互利共赢。在全球产业链分工日益细化的今天,世界经济体系高度相互嵌套, 一荣俱荣,这种基于市场选择的自然合作是全球化资源配置的必然结果。近年来,随着美方当局违背经 济规律,倒行逆施单边主义与保护主义,全球政治、经济、贸易局势呈现出显著地恶化趋势。这种将经 贸问题政治化、安全化的做法,不仅撕裂了全球供应链的完整脉络,更在根本上动摇了多边贸易体系的 根基。历史与现实反复印证,贸易战没有赢家,霸凌打压只会造成多败皆伤的困境。当保护主义阴云笼 罩全球经济之际,理性回归的呼声正逐渐汇聚成强大的力量——发展中国家联合捍卫公平贸易原则,跨 国资本用投资选择表达对开放市场的信心,美国国内工商界和农业州也持续发出反制关税的抗议。来自 各方的呼吁清晰表明,世界经济的复苏需要拆除人为藩篱,全球秩序的重构亟须重返合作轨道。 伦敦会议的成果是中美双方正视经贸互利共赢本质,尝试回归经济理性的重要探索。 ...
不止是稀土!特朗普才发现:“天平”已倾向北京,美国想挽回晚了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-13 01:31
Group 1 - The report from Harvard's Belfer Center indicates that the U.S. continues to lead China in key technology sectors such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, semiconductors, space, and quantum technology [1] - The report emphasizes the significant weight of private and public funding resources in the U.S., contrasting with other indices that show China leading in many research areas [1] - Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate, noted at the Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum that the gap between the U.S. and China in AI is rapidly closing, with China making significant advancements in AI model training efficiency and research [1] Group 2 - China's economic performance in Q1 2025 showed a GDP of 31.8758 trillion yuan, growing 5.4% year-on-year, while the U.S. reported a GDP contraction of 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate [3] - Analysts highlighted that China's success in the rare earth supply chain has shifted the balance of power in trade negotiations, especially following U.S. tariffs [3] - The article discusses how the U.S. is dependent on Chinese supply chains despite its "America First" rhetoric, indicating a potential vulnerability in U.S. trade policy [5] Group 3 - A report tracking global sentiment towards China and the U.S. revealed that China's net favorability score reached 8.8, surpassing the U.S. score of -1.5, marking a significant shift in global perception [7] - The report suggests that this change in sentiment represents a blow to U.S. soft power, particularly among its key economic and military partners [7]
没谈妥?美国与日本谈判,石破茂态度突变,给了美“当头一棒”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 10:15
据环球网援引日本《朝日新闻》消息,日本和美国的第五轮关税谈判未取得进展,日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮表示双方尚未找到共识 。美日谈判陷入僵局, 而日本首相石破茂态度突变,这背后有着诸多复杂因素。 石破茂(资料图) 石破茂态度转变有着多方面原因。从经济利益考量,日本汽车产业是其经济支柱之一,若按照美国要求限制汽车出口,日本经济将遭受重创。农业方面,大 量农业就业岗位与当前农产品关税政策相关,降低关税会引发国内农业领域动荡。在外交层面,日本也在尝试多元化发展。日本加强与东盟国家的合作,积 极推动区域经济合作;在处理与中国关系上,也有积极信号释放,中国是日本重要的贸易伙伴,2023 年中日贸易额达 3500 亿美元,日本期望通过改善对华 关系,在经济合作中获取更多利益,减少对美国市场的过度依赖。此外,日本持有 1.1 万亿美元美债,这成为日本在谈判中的重要筹码,日本暗示必要时可 能抛售美债作为对美国关税政策的反制手段。 美日谈判若持续破裂,双方可能爆发贸易战。美国可能对日本汽车加征 25% 关税,日本也计划对 34 亿美元美国农产品实施反制。这不仅会冲击美日双边贸 易,还将影响全球供应链,特别是汽车和半导体产业。若达成协 ...
专访|美单边关税不停止 难有真正的贸易公平——访波黑经济学家伊戈尔
Xin Hua She· 2025-06-09 05:25
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the escalation of U.S. protectionism through the increase of tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%, which poses significant risks to global trade stability [1] Impact on Bosnia and Herzegovina - The U.S. tariffs have a direct and severe impact on Bosnia and Herzegovina's defense industry, which constitutes over 60% of its exports to the U.S. The tariffs on this sector have risen from 12% to 35% [1] - Other sectors, including metals, are also affected by the increased tariffs, indicating a broader economic impact beyond just defense [1] Regional Trade Dynamics - Bosnia and Herzegovina, while not an EU member, has strong economic ties with the EU, particularly in the automotive manufacturing sector. The long-term effects of U.S. tariffs on Bosnian enterprises are significant and cannot be overlooked [1] Response to Tariff Challenges - The economist suggests that Western Balkan countries should collaborate and enhance communication to effectively respond to external shocks caused by U.S. tariffs [1] - The EU's response to U.S. tariffs is viewed as insufficient, lacking internal consensus, which hampers its ability to counteract U.S. economic pressure effectively [1] Long-term Economic Consequences - The article argues that unless the U.S. halts its aggressive tariff policies, true trade fairness will remain elusive. The U.S. approach is seen as treating trade partners as subordinates rather than equal collaborators, undermining international trust and cooperation [1] - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. economy may bear the greatest losses from its own protectionist measures [1] Call for a Fair Trade System - There is a call for major economies to work towards establishing a fairer and clearer global trade system, which would allow smaller economies like Bosnia and Herzegovina to thrive in a more balanced international trade environment [1]
高端访谈丨阿中愿携手维护多边贸易体系和发展中国家利益——访阿拉伯议会议长亚马希
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-06-05 00:56
Core Viewpoint - The Arab countries and China are committed to mutual support and maintaining a multilateral trade system that benefits developing countries, aiming for a fairer and more inclusive global economic governance system [1][2]. Group 1: Political and Economic Cooperation - The political, economic, and cultural exchanges between Arab countries and China are deepening based on mutual respect and win-win cooperation [2]. - The cooperation between the Arab Parliament and the National People's Congress of China enhances bilateral and multilateral coordination, particularly in legislative support for economic, cultural, and scientific cooperation [2]. Group 2: Stance on Global Issues - Both Arab countries and China share a common stance on global issues, supporting the principles of international law, strengthening multilateralism, and opposing hegemonism and double standards [2]. - The protectionist policies of certain countries, particularly the United States, are seen as harmful to international trade stability and detrimental to the interests of developing countries [2]. Group 3: Call for International Cooperation - There is a call for enhanced international cooperation to build a fairer and more inclusive global economic governance system that better protects the economic and developmental interests of developing countries [2].
金砖国家议会论坛与会代表强调捍卫多边主义
Xin Hua She· 2025-06-04 09:02
第11届金砖国家议会论坛将于5日结束,来自金砖成员国及伙伴国的150多名代表参加。 (文章来源:新华社) 阿联酋联邦国民议会代表阿里·努艾米强调,有必要利用金砖机制在各国人民之间"架设桥梁"。他 说:"金砖国家的原则是,我们能够共赢,而不是一方赢,另一方输。" 南非国民议会国际关系与合作委员会主席苏普拉·马胡马佩洛表示,南非从金砖机制中受益匪浅,新开 发银行正在为众多项目提供融资,促进了该国有关建设计划的实施。 白俄罗斯众议院议会间合作委员会主席谢尔盖·拉奇科夫指出,白俄罗斯在与合作伙伴的贸易中始终保 持开放态度。他表示,白俄罗斯在化肥、技术和机械出口方面具有优势,期待加强与金砖国家的联系。 新华社巴西利亚6月3日电(记者赵焱)第11届金砖国家议会论坛3日开幕。会议首日,来自金砖成员国 及伙伴国的立法机构代表在发言中强调捍卫多边主义,加强团结合作。 主持论坛有关会议的巴西参议院外交关系委员会主席内尔西尼奥·特拉德认为,世界需要一个以世界贸 易组织为核心、以规则为基础的开放、透明、可预测和非歧视性的多边贸易体系。国际贸易是包容性增 长、消除饥饿、减少贫困以及促进环境、经济和社会可持续发展的重要驱动力。促进金砖国 ...
海关总署副署长赵增连在宁波会见部分外宾
news flash· 2025-05-22 13:01
Core Viewpoint - The meeting held on May 22 focused on enhancing multilateral trade systems, deepening China-Europe economic relations, and expanding the trade scale of agricultural and food products [1] Group 1 - The meeting involved key officials from China and Central and Eastern European countries, including the Vice Chairman of the China-EU Chamber of Commerce and various ministers from Bulgaria, Croatia, and Greece [1] - Discussions included the importance of maintaining a multilateral trade system and the potential for increased cooperation in agricultural and food product trade [1] - Relevant cooperation documents were signed during the meeting to formalize agreements on these topics [1]
董一凡:希望欧盟“联通欧亚”步伐不再迟缓
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-05-20 22:58
Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is increasingly focusing on the Asia-Pacific region to strengthen economic cooperation and mitigate internal and external risks amid changing transatlantic relations and U.S. tariff pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Cooperation and Strategic Shift - The EU has historically prioritized economic cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region, as evidenced by official documents dating back to 1994 and subsequent strategies emphasizing connectivity and trade agreements [2][3]. - The EU's renewed focus on Asia is driven by the need to seek opportunities and mitigate risks in a volatile geopolitical landscape [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Potential of the Asia-Pacific Region - The Asia-Pacific region accounts for approximately 30% of global GDP, making it a highly attractive market due to its economic vitality and potential for growth [3]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Asia's GDP will grow by 4.6% in 2024, with growth rates of 3.9% and 4% expected in 2025 and 2026, respectively, significantly outpacing global averages [3]. - The region's trade dynamics are also robust, with actual export and import growth rates of 3.4% and 3.6% in 2024, compared to global rates of 1.8% and 2.2% [3]. Group 3: Current Trade Relations and Challenges - The EU's presence in the Asia-Pacific trade landscape is limited, accounting for only 8% of ASEAN's external trade, indicating a relative withdrawal over the past two decades [4]. - The rise of U.S. protectionism has increased the need for the EU and Asia-Pacific countries to strengthen their economic ties and diversify partnerships [4]. - Strengthening cooperation between the EU and Asia-Pacific can reinforce the traditional consensus on supporting a multilateral trade system and enhance joint efforts in reforming international trade rules [4]. Group 4: Existing Agreements and Future Prospects - The EU has established free trade agreements with several Asia-Pacific countries and has reached digital partnership agreements with Japan and Singapore, indicating a foundation for deeper cooperation [5]. - A pragmatic approach to economic development and addressing mutual concerns in regulatory standards and market access could accelerate the EU's vision of connecting Europe and Asia [5].
半两财经|诺奖得主迈克尔·斯宾塞:贸易战是互相伤害必须纠正
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-17 11:49
今日(5月17日),在2025清华五道口全球金融论坛上,2001年诺贝尔经济学奖得主迈克尔·斯宾塞通过视频连线 形式发表主旨演讲。他指出,全球贸易体系方面,贸易战是互相伤害,必须纠正,未来最有可能的情形是建立多 边体系,欧洲、中国及其他主要新兴经济体支持建立相对合理、可行的多边体系。 对于AI在教育方面的应用,迈克尔·斯宾塞认为,应当鼓励学生负责任地使用AI,把它作为一个学习的辅助工具, 无论是在哪个学科。 文/北京青年报记者 蔺丽爽 编辑/汪浩舟 他认为,美国发起的关税战已经削弱了消费者信心,对美国经济的负面影响开始展现,若不纠正,将对包括中美 在内的全球经济带来灾难性影响。当前特朗普政府与中国及其他国家展开的双边谈判是对先前政策的调整和纠 正,"这是个非常乐观的进展,毕竟没人希望在互相伤害的道路上走下去。" 对于美国的货币政策走向,他认为,美联储的首要任务是稳定就业、管理好通货膨胀,其货币政策会根据不同的 情况进行反应,美联储目前仍在观望之中。 技术方面,迈克尔·斯宾塞说,中美之间差距在迅速缩小,DeepSeek等一些大模型在中国出现,未来人工智能 (AI)的包容性、普惠性越来越强。 现在中国、美国的很多 ...
诺奖得主斯宾塞:关税战或助推多边贸易发展
谈到贸易战的话题,迈克尔·斯宾塞表示,特朗普发起的关税战可能会推动中国、欧洲以及其他主要新兴经济体走向 一个"比较合理的、可行的"多边贸易体系。 5月17日,2001年诺贝尔经济学奖得主迈克尔·斯宾塞在2025清华五道口全球金融论坛上表示,AI发展不应局限于特定 公司或行业,开源AI模型日益增多,中美在AI领域的差距正快速缩小。 迈克尔·斯宾塞说,现在无论是中国,还是美国的很多公司都在研究一些小模型,非常有用,而且它依赖于大模型, 但是用起来会更加便宜。这些新的进展非常重要,对全球经济来讲产生了积极影响。 在经济和商业方面,迈克尔·斯宾塞表示,全球步入快速变化期。这个阶段我们能够怎么样使用AI?他表示,最主要 的是要确保AI的发展,不要只局限于某些公司或者某些行业,希望能够广泛提高生产力。在不同的AI应用领域如金 融、教育普惠方面,AI包容性越来越强,普惠性也越来越强。 对于AI在教育方面的应用,迈克尔·斯宾塞认为,应当鼓励学生负责任地使用AI,把它作为一个学习的辅助工具,无 论是在哪个学科。 斯宾塞还提到,美国发起的关税战已经削弱了消费者信心,对美国经济的负面影响开始展现,若不纠正,将对包括 中美在内的全球 ...