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【期货热点追踪】出口相关利好传闻再次传出!印度开启新一轮高达200万吨的招标,在这些消息的推动下,尿素后市能走多远?
news flash· 2025-06-25 10:06
出口相关利好传闻再次传出!印度开启新一轮高达200万吨的招标,在这些消息的推动下,尿素后市能 走多远? 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...
尿素早评:等待现货企稳-20250625
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 08:01
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire in the Middle East, geopolitical speculation may come to an end. In the future, two points need attention: the impact of coal market sentiment on coal - chemical industry may slow down, and urea demand in the next two months is expected to be good. Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On June 24, 2025, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, UR09 were 1667 yuan/ton, 1686 yuan/ton, 1698 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 19 yuan/ton (- 1.13%), - 17 yuan/ton (- 1.00%), - 13 yuan/ton (- 0.76%) compared to June 23. Domestic spot prices in different regions also showed certain changes, such as a - 20 yuan/ton (- 1.05%) change in the Northeast [1] Basis and Spread - On June 24, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was 64 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton compared to June 23. The 01 - 05 spread was - 19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream, the prices of some products like compound fertilizer and melamine were mostly stable, while the price of compound fertilizer in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1679 yuan/ton, the highest was 1726 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1672 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1698 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1698 yuan/ton, and the position was 247071 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities. Consider the risk of changes in export policies [1]
尿素日报:供需延续宽松,尿素震荡偏弱-20250625
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:37
尿素日报 | 2025-06-25 供需延续宽松,尿素震荡偏弱 市场分析 价格与基差:2025-06-24,尿素主力收盘1698元/吨(-13);河南小颗粒出厂价报价:1760 元/吨(0);山东地区小 颗粒报价:1750元/吨(+0);江苏地区小颗粒报价:1770元/吨(+0);小块无烟煤750元/吨(+0),山东基差:52 元/吨(+13);河南基差:62元/吨(+13);江苏基差:72元/吨(+13);尿素生产利润220元/吨(+0),出口利润705 元/吨(+57)。 供应端:截至2025-06-24,企业产能利用率88.28%(0.08%)。样本企业总库存量为113.60 万吨(-4.11),港口样本 库存量为29.50 万吨(+5.00)。 需求端:截至2025-06-24,复合肥产能利用率31.82%(-1.99%);三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.32%(+0.55%);尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日(+0.58)。 伊朗以色列地缘冲突有缓和迹象,尿素盘面重回基本面交易,供需延续宽松。尿素开工高位运行,装置检修计划 偏少,产量预计走高,供应端压力较大。尿素下游农业需求追肥补货需求释放,工厂预售订单 ...
大越期货尿素早报-20250625
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 02:22
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 • 尿素概述: • 1. 基本面:近期尿素盘面震荡。国际局势波动导致尿素供应紧张,国际尿素价格上涨,影响 部分传导至国内期货及现货市场。供应方面,开工率及日产均为近年新高,库存有所回落。需求 端,工业需求中复合肥开工回落,三聚氰胺开工上升,农业需求有所回暖。尿素整体供过于求仍 明显,出口政策仍未放开。交割品现货1920(-0),基本面整体中性; • 2. 基差: UR2509合约基差222,升贴水比例11.6%,偏多; • 3. 库存:UR综合库存98万吨(-21.8),偏空; • 4. 盘面: UR主力合约20日均线向下,收盘价位于20日线下,偏空; • 5. 主力持仓:UR主力持仓净空,减空,偏空; • 6. 预期:尿素主力合约盘面震荡,国际尿素价格偏强,农业需求有所回暖,但整体供过于求 仍明显,预计UR今日走势震荡偏弱 尿素早报 2025-6-25 • 尿素概述: • 利多 • 1、国际价格偏强 • 2、国内农需边际转好 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、库存同比偏高 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0 ...
尿素早评:等待现货企稳-20250624
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 05:08
| | | | | 尿素早评20250624:等待现货企稳 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | | 单位 | 6月23日 | 6月20日 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 山东 期现价格 山西 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1686.00 1703.00 1750.00 | 1689.00 1709.00 1820.00 | -3.00 -6.00 -70.00 -40.00 | -0.18% -0.35% -3.85% -2.38% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1711.00 | 1730.00 | -19.00 | -1.10% | | | | | 元/吨 | 1640.00 | 1680.00 | | | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1760.00 | 1820.00 | -60.00 | -3.30% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1800 ...
银河期货尿素日报-20250623
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 11:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to be weak in the short - term, with both futures and spot prices likely to decline [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review - Urea futures decreased with increased positions, closing at 1711 (-35/-2%) [3] - Spot market: The decline in factory - gate prices widened, and trading was sluggish. Factory - gate prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1730 - 1750 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1700 - 1810 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1760 - 1770 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1640 - 1700 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1760 - 1770 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1640 - 1700 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On June 23, the daily urea production was 19.98 tons, an increase of 0.47 tons from the previous workday and 2.86 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 86.31%, a 7.24% increase from 79.07% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - Market sentiment was still weak, with factory - gate prices in major regions falling more sharply and trading being sluggish. In Shandong, the mainstream factory - gate price led the decline, and it is expected to continue to fall. In Henan, the market sentiment was also weak, and the price is expected to decline. In the delivery area, the price is likely to keep falling [5] - Although some plants were under maintenance and the daily output dropped below 200,000 tons, it was still at the highest level in the same period. The international market price rose due to the Middle - East conflict, and the large price difference between domestic and international markets had a certain positive impact on the domestic market [5] - The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizer plants in central and northern China was low, and the overall demand was declining. The inventory of urea production enterprises was still relatively high, but it decreased slightly to around 1.04 million tons this week [5] - After the Indian tender results were announced, the export orders increased, which boosted the market. However, as the price in the central mainstream delivery area rose, the downstream started to wait and see, and the spot price has been falling since the weekend, with weak order receipts [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bearish [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options on rebounds [6]
尿素早评:关注回落后的做多机会-20250623
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 03:17
| | | | | 尿素早评20250623:关注回落后的做多机会 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 6月20日 6月19日 | 单位 | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1689.00 1820.00 1680.00 | 1725.00 1840.00 1730.00 | -36.00 -20.00 -50.00 | -2.09% -1.09% -2.89% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1709.00 | 1737.00 | -28.00 | -1.61% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1780.00 | -50.00 | -2.81% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1820.00 | 1830.00 | -10.00 | -0.55% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 ...
大越期货尿素早报-20250623
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 02:29
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-6-23 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述: • 1. 基本面:近期尿素盘面震荡。国际局势波动导致尿素供应紧张,中东尿素装置出现停产, 国际尿素价格上涨,影响部分传导至国内期货及现货市场。供应方面,开工率及日产均为近年新 高,库存小幅波动。需求端,工业需求中复合肥开工回落,三聚氰胺开工上升,农业需求有所回 暖。尿素整体供过于求仍明显,出口政策仍未放开。交割品现货1930(+0),基本面整体中性; • 2. 基差: UR2509合约基差200,升贴水比例10.4%,偏多; • 3. 库存:UR综合库存119.9万吨(-11.1),偏空; • 4. 盘面: UR主力合约20日均线向下,收盘价位于20日线下,偏空; • 5. 主力持仓:UR主力持仓净空 ...
尿素日报:下游跟进放缓,尿素小幅回落-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:51
尿素日报 | 2025-06-20 下游跟进放缓,尿素小幅回落 需求端:截至2025-06-19,复合肥产能利用率31.82%(-1.99%);三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.32%(+0.55%);尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日(+0.58)。 尿素下游跟进放缓,盘面小幅回落。以色列伊朗军事冲突持续,国际尿素价格高位运行,出口与外盘价格提振, 港口库存呈现小幅增加趋势。当前正值传统农需旺季,全国大部分地区水稻、玉米等作物的追肥旺季,多数企业 新单成交尚可,尿素企业订单天数小幅增加。同时下游工业需求减弱,复合肥、三聚氰胺等行业开工率环比走低。 尿素产量持续处于高位,且未来检修计划较少,供应端压力较大,市场呈现供大于求格局,厂内库存处于高位。 策略 中性。 风险 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 市场分析 价格与基差:2025-06-19,尿素主力收盘1780元/吨(-9);河南小颗粒出厂价报价:1830 元/吨(0);山东地区小 颗粒报价:1840元/吨(+10);江苏地区小颗粒报价:1840元/吨(-10);小块无烟煤750元/吨(+0),山东基差:60 元/吨(+19);河南基差:50 ...
大越期货尿素早报-20250620
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 01:33
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-6-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述: • 1. 基本面:近期尿素盘面低位反弹。国际局势波动导致尿素供应紧张,理论出口利润大幅提 升,影响传导至国内期货及现货市场。供应方面,开工率及日产均为近年新高,库存小幅去库。 需求端,工业需求中复合肥开工回落,三聚氰胺开工中性,农业需求有所回暖。尿素整体供过于 求仍明显,出口政策仍未放开。交割品现货1930(+20),基本面整体中性; • 2. 基差: UR2509合约基差150,升贴水比例7.8%,偏多; • 3. 库存:UR综合库存119.9万吨(-11.1),偏空; • 4. 盘面: UR主力合约20日均线向下,收盘价位于20日线上,中性; • 5. 主力持仓:UR主力持仓净多,翻多,偏多; • ...