| | | 商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 19 日 尿素：高位震荡 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,877 | 1,892 | -15 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,877 | 1,894 | -17 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 186,596 | 413,756 | -227160 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 239,683 | 245,094 | -5411 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,355 | 7,352 | 3 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 700,580 | 1,566,907 | -866327 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | 5 3 | 5 8 | - 5 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -7 | -7 | 0 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （ ...

| | | 尿素早评20250516: 逢低做多为主 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 变化值 单位 5月15日 5月14日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | (絶対值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1799.00 1950.00 1890.00 | 1814.00 1950.00 1890.00 | -15.00 0.00 0.00 | -0.83% 0.00% 0.00% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1868.00 | 1900.00 | -32.00 | -1.68% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1892.00 | 1886.00 | 6.00 | 0.32% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1920.00 | 1930.00 | -10.00 | -0.52% | | (小顆粒) | | 河北 ...

市场分析 价格与基差：2025-05-14，尿素主力收盘1886元/吨（-11）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1930 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1950元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1950元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤660元/吨（+0），山东基差：64 元/吨（-9）；河南基差：44元/吨（+11）；江苏基差：64元/吨（+11）；尿素生产利润483元/吨（-20），出口利润425 元/吨（-8）。 供应端：截至2025-05-14，企业产能利用率87.35%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为81.72 万吨（-24.84），港口样本 库存量为13.30 万吨（+1.50）。 需求端：截至2025-05-14，复合肥产能利用率37.90%（-2.70%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为75.24%（+0.08%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日（+0.47）。 尿素出口有放开预期，但公布出口数量不及市场预期，市场情绪有所降温，尿素盘面回落。前期部分尿素检修装 置逐步恢复重启，新增装置释放产能，尿素产量高位运行。煤炭与天然气价格保持稳定，生产成本稳定。当前仍 处于尿素传统需求旺季，南方水稻用肥量较多，北方 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250514: 尿素偏强震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | | (绝对值) | 单位 | 5月13日 | 5月12日 | 变化值 | 英化值 (相对值) -0.17% | | UR01 UR05 山东 山西 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1798.00 1930.00 1980.00 1890.00 | 1801.00 1925.00 1970.00 1890.00 | -3.00 5.00 10.00 0.00 | | | | | | | | | | 0.26% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1897.00 | 1897.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | 0.51% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | 0.00% | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1930.00 | 1930.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for urea, expecting the urea market to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [3] Core Viewpoints - The self - regulated urea export volume is lower than market expectations. Currently in the traditional urea demand peak season, agricultural demand is gradually increasing, industrial demand is stable, and production is at a high level. With the implementation of export policies, export demand is expected to increase [1][2] Summaries by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Includes figures on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - Involves figures on weekly urea production and urea plant maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Covers figures on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [17][18][21] 4. Urea FOB Prices and Export Profits - Comprises figures on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China, urea export profit, and disk export profit, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [24][26][30] 5. Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - Contains figures on compound fertilizer capacity utilization, melamine capacity utilization, and urea enterprise advance order days, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes figures on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [46][48][49]

劳动节假期前最后一个交易日，尿素期货2509合约涨幅超过7%，提振市场情绪。劳动节后，尿素期货 2509合约延续强势上涨趋势，5月9日盘中一度升至1926元／吨。从中长期来看，在高库存、高产量背景 下，盘面持续上涨空间有限。 消息面提振市场情绪 与此同时，5—6月份有两套新装置存在投产预期，总产能逼近200万吨／年。而检修的企业只有两家， 涉及产能在100万吨／年左右。若新增产能按计划投放，后期供应压力将持续攀升，进一步压制盘面价 格。 成本中枢下移 作为尿素的主要生产原料，近期煤炭价格持续走低，带动尿素成本中枢下移。劳动节假期当周，国内动 力煤跌幅超过3%，受多重利空因素拖累：首先，大秦线春季检修结束后，随着发运恢复，煤矿生产积 极性较前期有所提升，供应压力增加。其次，劳动节假期期间，北方港口库存快速累积，疏港压力不断 上升，部分贸易商出货心态愈发明显。最后，5月份国内气温将逐渐升高，部分地区将迎来雨季，水电 等非化石能源对煤电的替代预期较强。后期来看，在煤炭库存居高不下、产地供应维持高位、水电能源 替代作用下，预计煤价继续承压下行，对尿素的支撑力度减弱。 劳动节假期后，下游提货速度边际改善，尿素企业库存大 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250512: 尿素偏强震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | 单位 5月9日 5月8日 (绝对值) (相对值) | | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | UR01 | | | 元/吨 | 1790.00 | 1786.00 | 4.00 | 0.22% | | UR05 山东 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1935.00 1920.00 | 1911.00 1900.00 | 24.00 20.00 | | | | | | | | | | 1.26% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1893.00 | 1882.00 | 11.00 | 0.58% 1.05% | | 期现价格 山西 河南 | | | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1890.00 1910.00 | 1850.00 1900.00 | 40.00 10.00 | 2.16% 0.53% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The previous trading day, UR showed a relatively strong oscillation and closed at 1886. Looking ahead, due to the difficulty in confirming or refuting the changes in export policies in the short - term, two possibilities are considered. If export is confirmed to be liberalized, considering the large current price difference between domestic and foreign markets and the relatively considerable export profit, the domestic urea price may rise above 2000 after the export liberalization. If export remains restricted, after several rounds of false export speculations in the past, the price increase is basically taken back in the short - term. However, considering the expected peak season in the domestic market, the decline in urea price will stimulate demand, and it is believed that there is still support at the 1700 level. Strategically, it is recommended that long - position holders can appropriately realize part of the profits, and the remaining part should continue to monitor the direction of export policies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On May 8, UR01 in Shandong closed at 1786 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from May 7; UR05 closed at 1911 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.05%); UR09 closed at 1882 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan (- 0.21%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Shanxi and Henan, the prices remained unchanged at 1850 yuan/ton and 1900 yuan/ton respectively. In Hebei, it rose to 1950 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (1.56%); in Northeast and Jiangsu, the prices remained stable at 1900 yuan/ton and 1910 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 11 yuan/ton on May 8, up 1 yuan from May 7. - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 125 yuan/ton on May 8, up 6 yuan from May 7 [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream Cost**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong remained at 2980 yuan/ton, while in Henan it dropped to 2560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.78%). The prices of melamine in Shandong, Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1875 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1890 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1859 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1882 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1874 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 266569 lots [1].

尿素日报 | 2025-05-08 下游刚需跟进，上游小幅去库 市场分析 尿素出口放松的消息扰动盘面。新增装置投产，淡季储备货源释放，尿素产量维持高位。部分地区返青肥结束， 农业处于空档期，而南方地区降水偏少，水稻用肥需求后延且分散，工业需求复合肥开工率大幅下降，整体需求 较为分散，下游整体接货积极性不高，订单预收情况转弱。上游库存累积，中长期来看供应压力仍维持高位。内 盘尿素价格走低，而国际尿素价格小幅走高，尿素内外盘价差走高。进出口窗口维持关闭，国内出口政策维持收 紧情况下，未来短期国内企业参与出口可能性较低，港口未有明显变化，整体港口库存偏平稳运行，出口量维持 低位，建议持续关注尿素出口相关政策。 策略 中性，预计尿素行情延续窄幅震荡为主。 风险 价格与基差：2025-05-07，尿素主力收盘1886元/吨（+5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1900 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1900元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1910元/吨（+20）；小块无烟煤660元/吨（+0），山东基差： 14元/吨（+5）；河南基差：14元/吨（+5）；江苏基差：24元/吨（+15）；尿素生产利润433元/吨（ ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 08 日 尿素：震荡有支撑 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,886 | 1,881 | 5 -25978 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,884 | 1,868 | 1 6 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 379,039 | 405,017 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 256,052 | 231,434 | 24618 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 4,970 | 4,970 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,428,441 | 1,513,204 | -84764 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | 1 4 | 9 | 5 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -36 | -61 | 2 5 | | | | 东光 ...