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宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20250507
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 02:41
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report presents the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various commodities on different dates, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, which can help investors analyze the price relationships and trends of these commodities [2][8][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Power Coal - Basis data from April 25 to May 6, 2025, shows that the basis values are negative and gradually decreasing, with values of - 146.4, - 147.4, - 149.4, - 151.4, - 153.4 respectively. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads are all 0 [2]. 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the crude oil/bitumen ratio, basis and ratio data from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are presented. For example, the INE crude oil basis on May 6 is - 40.14 [6]. (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: From April 25 to May 6, 2025, basis data for natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP are provided. For instance, the natural rubber basis on May 6 is - 115 [8]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for different chemicals are given, such as the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads for natural rubber, methanol, etc. The 5 - 1 spread of natural rubber is - 930 [8]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are presented for different dates [8]. 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are shown. For example, the rebar basis on May 6 is 113.0 [13]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. The 5 - 1 spread of rebar is - 78.0 [13]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety relationships such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are presented for different dates [13]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are given. The copper basis on May 6 is 770 [22]. (2) London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. For example, the LME copper spread on April 30 is 20.23 [29]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: Basis data for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are provided. The soybean basis on May 6 is - 269 [37]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for various agricultural products are given. The 5 - 1 spread of soybean is 23 [37]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety relationships such as soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., are presented for different dates [37]. 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are shown. The CSI 300 basis on May 6 is 42.34 [45]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for different stock index futures are provided. The next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 30.6 [45].
铜:现货坚挺,支撑价格
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 02:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of copper is firm, which supports the copper price. The copper market shows certain price fluctuations and supply - demand characteristics, and is also affected by macro and micro news [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 77,600 with a daily increase of 0.49%, and the night - session closing price was 78,320 with a night - session increase of 0.93%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,520 with a daily increase of 4.32% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 83,514, a decrease of 6,040 from the previous day, and the open interest was 172,625, an increase of 4,071. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 10,860, an increase of 69, and the open interest was 289,000, an increase of 584 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 24,922, a decrease of 3,244 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 195,625, a decrease of 1,675. The LME Copper注销仓单比 was 44.45%, a decrease of 0.45% [1]. - **Spreads**: There were various changes in different spreads, such as the LME copper ascension and premium, the spot - to - futures near - month spread, etc. For example, the spot - to - futures near - month spread increased by 55 to 285 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The EU plans to expand counter - measures and may impose tariffs on 100 billion euros of US goods if negotiations fail. The Fed may delay interest rate cuts due to concerns about inflation. China's Caixin Services PMI in April was 50.7 with a slowdown in new order growth [1]. - **Micro News**: Peru's Antamina Mining Company shut down its mine due to a safety accident. The 2025 - 2026 global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus, with 289,000 tons in 2025 and 209,000 tons in 2026. In the first quarter of this year, Codelco's output was 296,000 tons, a 0.3% increase year - on - year. Chile's copper output in March was 477,049 tons, a 9.1% increase year - on - year, and Zambia's copper output in the first quarter increased by 30% to about 224,000 tons [1][3]. 3.3 Industry Data - From January to March 2025, the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry achieved an operating income of 2,135.65 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.5%; the operating cost was 2,015.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.7%; and the total profit was 65.77 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 33.6% [3]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive trend [3].
纯碱:供应宽松格局,价格重心下移
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 13:23
分析师:何慧 【策略】 单边策略:目前主力09合约关注20日均线压制情况,短期1380成为多空分水岭,盘面围绕联碱成本在1230-1320运行。 套利策略:目前纯碱9-1价差在-10附近,几乎平水,考虑到夏季季节性检修,以及年底天然碱新增产能投产计划,9-1正套参与。 FG-SA09合约价差为-270左右,4月中旬玻璃-纯碱价差走弱,目前仍未止跌迹象,在-320至-360之间再尝试参与多玻璃空纯碱操作。 套保策略:目前碱厂库存绝对高位,上游企业可依据自身库存情况关注09合约在盘面大幅升水现货时,在1400-1450附近卖出套保 机会。下游玻璃企业刚需补库,可在盘面低于现货交割成本时买入套保。 【风险】检修超预期(上行风险)、煤炭及相关燃料走强(上行风险)、重回累库(下行风险)、宏观政策不及预期(下行风险) 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货研究院 时间:2025.04.30 【观点】4月在中美关税政策冲击下,商品市场弱势运行,叠加碱厂检修装置复产,纯碱期现价格联动下行。供应方面,碱厂5月检 修计划增多,市场存供应缩 ...
宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20250430
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 02:51
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025 年 4 月 30 日) 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤(元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/04/29 | -149.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/28 | -147.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/25 | -146.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/24 | -144.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/23 | -143.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差(右) 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼 ...
宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20250429
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 02:53
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025 年 4 月 29 日) 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤(元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/04/28 | -147.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/25 | -146.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/24 | -144.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/23 | -143.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/22 | -141.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差(右) 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼 ...
宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20250428
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:49
www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025 年 4 月 28 日) 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤(元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/04/25 | -146.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/24 | -144.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/23 | -143.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/22 | -141.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/21 | -140.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差(右) 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) ...
宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20250423
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 02:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on April 23, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, spreads, and price ratios [1][4][15][23][39][46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from April 16 - 22, 2025 shows that the basis was negative and fluctuated slightly, with values like - 137.4 on April 16 and - 141.4 on April 22. The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis from April 16 - 22, 2025 was negative and changed, e.g., - 25.30 on April 16 and - 33.74 on April 22. The fuel oil basis data was incomplete, and the crude oil / asphalt price ratio was around 0.14 [5]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis: The basis of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., showed different trends from April 16 - 22, 2025. For example, the natural rubber basis was 15 on April 16 and - 135 on April 22 [11]. - Spreads: The spreads of different contracts (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of chemical products also varied. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of natural rubber was - 885 [11]. - Cross - product spreads: The spreads between different chemical products such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., had different values on different dates [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal changed from April 16 - 22, 2025. For example, the rebar basis was 47.0 on April 16 and 75.0 on April 22 [16]. - Spreads: The spreads of different contracts of black metals showed different trends. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was - 102.0 [16]. - Cross - product: The price ratios and spreads such as rebar / iron ore, rebar / coke, etc., also changed over time [16]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Basis: The basis of domestic non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., fluctuated from April 16 - 22, 2025. For example, the copper basis was 760 on April 16 and 360 on April 22 [24]. - LME data: For LME non - ferrous metals, data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London price ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profits and losses were provided for April 22, 2025 [30]. 3.4.2 London Market - The report shows the LME basis and Shanghai - London price ratio trends, but no specific data analysis is provided [32][33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis: The basis of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., changed from April 16 - 22, 2025. For example, the soybean basis was - 220 on April 16 and - 320 on April 22 [39]. - Spreads: The spreads of different contracts of agricultural products also had different values. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans was - 6 [39]. - Cross - product: The price ratios and spreads such as soybean / corn, soybean oil / soybean meal, etc., were presented [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis: The basis of stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 changed from April 16 - 22, 2025. For example, the CSI 300 basis was 82.02 on April 16 and 50.95 on April 22 [47]. - Spreads: The spreads of different contracts of stock index futures showed different trends. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 28.0 [47].