Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2509) are expected to oscillate and weaken. LME inventory warrants and SHFE warrants are both increasing [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1153,000 tons, consumption was 1,130,200 tons, with a surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4,451,400 tons, consumption was 4,507,900 tons, with a shortage of 56,500 tons. In April, global zinc sheet production was 1,072,200 tons, and from January to April, global zinc ore production was 4,040,600 tons [2]. - The basis is +100 with the spot price at 22,170, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On July 15, LME zinc inventory increased by 5,200 tons to 118,600 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 2,013 tons to 11,184 tons, which is bearish [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, which is bullish [2]. - The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (July 15) - The trading volume of zinc futures on July 15 was 216,448 lots, with a turnover of 2,392,324,480 yuan, and the total open interest was 236,504 lots, a decrease of 1,770 lots [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (July 15) - Zinc concentrate in Linzhou was priced at 16,880 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; zinc ingots in Aoshi were 22,170 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; galvanized sheets in China were 3,951 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; galvanized pipes in China were 4,289 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,700 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 26,870 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; and secondary zinc oxide in Lin was 7,694 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 3 - July 14) - On July 14, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 742,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons compared to July 7 and 15,000 tons compared to July 10 [5]. 5. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (July 15) - The total SHFE zinc warrants on July 15 were 11,184 tons, an increase of 2,013 tons. In Guangdong, the warrants increased significantly, with Zhongchu Shengshi increasing by 125 tons, Guangdong Jushen increasing by 396 tons, and Shengui increasing by 521 tons. In Tianjin, the warrants also increased, with Shanggang Yuncang Tianjin increasing by 760 tons and Quansheng Logistics Tianjin increasing by 732 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics (July 15) - The total LME zinc inventory on July 15 was 118,600 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons from the previous day. The注销 ratio was 22.45% [8]. 7. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The production of refined zinc in June 2025 was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July is 470,300 tons [16]. 8. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (July 15) - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% grade vary by region, generally ranging from 3,400 to 4,000 yuan/metal ton. The import processing fee for 48% grade is 60 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 9. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (July 15, Contract zn2509) - In terms of trading volume, Guotai Junan ranked first with 21,619 lots, an increase of 1,123 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 21,225 lots, an increase of 215 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 10,712 lots, a decrease of 2,072 lots [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: In the short - term, PTA's driving force is weak, and its price follows cost fluctuations. In July, there are few PTA device overhauls, and the Sanfangxiang device is planned to be put into production. Meanwhile, it is the off - season for terminal demand, polyester sales are weak, inventory pressure accumulates, and there are news of production cuts. The PTA supply - demand forecast is negative, and the spot basis runs weakly [6]. - MEG: In the short - term, the price of ethylene glycol will be mainly adjusted in a wide range. The restart difficulties of some devices in the Saudi region have boosted market sentiment. In the long - term, the transferable spot in the ethylene glycol market will continue to be loose, and there is a clear expectation of inventory accumulation in August - September, with an overall range of about 18 - 20 tons. As the inventory pressure of polyester products increases, the intention of subsequent factories to participate in raw material procurement will also weaken [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market improved compared with the previous day. Individual polyester factories made bids, and the spot basis stabilized. The mainstream price of July goods was negotiated and traded at 09 + 8 - 10, and the price negotiation range was around 4680 - 4750. The night - session price was at the high end. A small amount of August goods were traded at 09 + 8 - 10. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 + 9 [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4712, the basis of the 09 contract is 16, and the futures price is at a discount [7]. - Inventory: The inventory of PTA factories is 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.09 days compared with the previous period [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main - force position: Net short, short positions increasing, bearish [6]. MEG - Fundamental: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol was adjusted in a wide range, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session ethylene glycol fluctuated at a high level and then declined. The spot transaction was around a premium of 68 - 69 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. During the day, the ethylene glycol market fluctuated narrowly, and the spot transaction was carried out around a premium of 66 - 70 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The overall market transaction was weak. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market was sorted out narrowly, and the overall transaction was okay. The mainstream negotiation price of recent shipments during the day was around 513 - 517 US dollars/ton. There was a large - order transaction of Singaporean goods in the morning, and the recent shipments were traded around 513 - 514 US dollars/ton in the afternoon [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 4399, the basis of the 09 contract is 77, and the futures price is at a discount [9]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 48.03 tons, a decrease of 5.17 tons compared with the previous period [9]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [9]. - Main - force position: Net short, short positions increasing, bearish [8]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Influencing factors: - Bullish: The PX operating rate remains at a relatively high level [10]. - Bearish: Iran confirmed a cease - fire. From the demand side, it is the end of the export rush and the domestic demand off - season, and the trend of weakening terminal demand is certain. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Pay attention to the cost side, and after the disk rebounds, pay attention to the upper resistance level [11][12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, output, import, export, consumption, and inventory data [13]. - Ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including operating rate, output, import, export, consumption, and inventory data [14]. - Price data: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester on July 15 - 14, 2025, as well as data on basis, spread, and profit [15]. - Inventory analysis: It shows the inventory data of various products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PET chips, and polyester from 2021 to 2025 [44][45][47]. - Operating rate data: It shows the operating rate data of various products in the polyester industry chain such as PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [57][58][60]. - Profit data: It shows the profit data of various products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester fibers from 2022 to 2025 [67][69][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market presents a complex situation with both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors involve overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4975 - 5045 [8][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure decreased this week, and the expected production is likely to increase next week as the expected maintenance decreases. The downstream overall and most sub - sectors'开工率 is lower than the historical average, with the current demand potentially remaining sluggish. The cost side shows that the losses of calcium carbide and ethylene methods are decreasing, but the profit is still lower than the historical average, which may put pressure on production scheduling. The fundamentals are considered neutral [6][8] - **Basis**: On July 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 80 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory decreased by 1.21% month - on - month, with the calcium carbide factory inventory down 1.61% and the ethylene factory inventory up 0.22%. The social inventory increased by 5.25% month - on - month, and the production enterprise's in - stock inventory days decreased by 0.32%. The inventory situation is considered neutral [10] - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20, which is bullish [10] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, and production of different types of PVC, as well as the operating rates of downstream industries [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC futures, including the relationship between the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [17][18] - **Price and Volume Trends**: It presents the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract, including the trends of MA5, MA10, MA20, MA60, and MA120, as well as the position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [21] - **Spread Analysis**: It shows the historical spread trends of different contract months of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method of PVC production [26][29][31][34] - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, production profits, daily and weekly production volumes, and maintenance losses of PVC [40][42] - **Demand Trend**: It includes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and the operating rates of downstream industries such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also shows the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and infrastructure investment - related indicators [44][45][49][54][55][57] - **Inventory**: It presents the inventory data of the exchange, calcium carbide and ethylene factory warehouses, social inventory, and the inventory days of production enterprises [60] - **Ethylene Method - Related**: It includes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads in the ethylene method of PVC production [61][62] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory and social inventories, demand, and export from May 2024 to June 2025 [64][65]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **For Threaded Steel (Rebar)**: The demand shows no improvement, with low - level inventory slightly decreasing. Traders' purchasing willingness remains weak, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. However, considering factors such as low inventory, positive basis, and price above the 20 - day line, it should be treated with a volatile and slightly bullish mindset [2]. - **For Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decline, and exports are blocked. Although there are some positive factors like positive basis and price above the 20 - day line, due to the weakening market situation and export obstacles, it should also be treated with a volatile and slightly bullish mindset [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Threaded Steel (Rebar) - **Fundamentals**: Demand is poor, inventory is at a low level and slightly decreasing, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rebar is 3210, and the basis is 72; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 359.49 million tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year; bullish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of rebar is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include low production and inventory levels and spot premium. Negative factors are the continuous downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand lower than the same period [2][3]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decline, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role; neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of hot - rolled coil is 3300, and the basis is 24; bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 267.75 million tons, increasing month - on - month but decreasing year - on - year; neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of hot - rolled coil is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [6]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors are fair demand and spot premium. Negative factors are that downstream demand has entered a seasonal off - season with a pessimistic outlook [8][9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.97%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量33.819万吨，环比减少1.92%,乙烯法企业产 量11.439万吨，环比增加3.62%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为41.11%，环比减少1.77个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为34.55%，环比减少0.20个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.67%，环比减少1.83个 百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为77.44%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.4825万吨，环比减少0.25%,乙烯法企业产 量11.039万吨，环比减少2.73%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.88%，环比增加.100个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为34.75%，环比减少0.25个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为39.5%，环比增加.939个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.88%，环比增加.100个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为34.75%，环比减少0.25个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为39.5%，环比增加.939个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为72.22%，环比减少0.56个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下 游糊树脂开工率为74.66%，环比减少1.62个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看涨；国内PVC出口 价格价格占优；当前需求或持续低迷。 1、基本面: 中性。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-552元/吨，亏损环比增加9.50%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润为-695 元/吨，亏损环比增加0.20%，低于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Fundamental analysis shows a short - term bearish outlook for asphalt due to high supply pressure and weak demand recovery. However, high - level crude oil prices provide some support. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating in the range of 3592 - 3654 [8][10][15] - Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs, which provide some support. Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and increasing expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 33.1376%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure, but supply pressure may decrease next week [8] - **Demand Side**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.0382%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 26%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; and the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 452.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1113.1829 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.54%. The loss of asphalt processing decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [9] - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating in the range of 3592 - 3654 [10] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview, including data on various contracts such as 01 - 12 contracts, covering indicators such as futures closing prices, price changes, basis, weekly production, and weekly operating rates [18] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices [21] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **主力合约价差**: It presents the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is helpful for analyzing the price differences between different contracts [25] - **沥青原油价格走势**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [27] - **原油裂解价差**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [30][31] - **沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the relative price relationships among these products [35] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [37] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **沥青利润**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025, showing the profitability of asphalt production [40] - **焦化沥青利润价差走势**: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the profit differences between different refining processes [44] - **Supply Side**: - **出货量**: It shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt shipments from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the sales situation of asphalt [46] - **稀释沥青港口库存**: It presents the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 to 2025, which is related to the supply of raw materials [48] - **产量**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the overall supply capacity of asphalt [51] - **马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势**: It presents the historical trends of the price of Marruán crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil, which is related to the supply of raw materials for asphalt production [56] - **地炼沥青产量**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt production from local refineries from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production capacity of local refineries [58] - **开工率**: It presents the historical trend of weekly asphalt operating rates from 2021 to 2025, reflecting the production activity of asphalt [61] - **检修损失量预估**: It shows the historical trend of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 to 2025, which is related to the supply reduction caused by refinery maintenance [63] - **Inventory**: - **交易所仓单**: It presents the historical trend of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the inventory situation in the futures market [66] - **社会库存和厂内库存**: It shows the historical trends of social and factory - level asphalt inventories from 2022 to 2025, reflecting the overall inventory situation [70] - **厂内库存存货比**: It presents the historical trend of the inventory - to - stock ratio in factories from 2018 to 2025, which is related to the inventory management of factories [73] - **进出口情况**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the international trade situation of asphalt [76][79] - **Demand Side**: - **石油焦产量**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in the related industries [82] - **表观消费量**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the overall market demand [85] - **下游需求**: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, as well as the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers, reflecting the demand for asphalt in the downstream construction industry [88][92][94] - **沥青开工率**: - **重交沥青开工率**: It presents the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [97] - **按用途分沥青开工率**: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production activities of different types of asphalt [99] - **下游开工情况**: It presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the demand for asphalt in the downstream industries [101][103] - **供需平衡表**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to July 2025, including data on production, imports, exports, social inventories, and factory inventories, which is helpful for analyzing the overall supply - demand situation of the asphalt market [106]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-10） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：部分煤矿有所复产，原料端供应逐渐改善。市场情绪有所提振，产地出货节奏加快，部分 下游企业及贸易商采购增多，煤矿订单增多出货良好，厂内库存压力减弱，线上竞拍也普遍出现明显上 涨，煤矿报价也多以小幅探涨为主；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价920，基差48.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：近期下游焦钢企业及贸易商对原料煤采购积极，对一些跌幅较大的性价比较好的煤种加快采 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1168元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1178元/吨，基差为-10元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存180.95万吨，较前一周增加2.41%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 。 2、风险点：下游浮法和光伏玻璃冷修不及预期，宏观利好超预期。 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较 ...