Core Viewpoint - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has been continuously declining in 2023, with significant drops observed compared to previous months and the same period last year [1][2][3]. Price Trends - As of May 29, 2023, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 60,200 yuan/ton, down 1.63% from the previous day and 44.97% lower than the same time last year [1][2]. - The price has decreased from approximately 78,800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market is experiencing a reduction in production capacity for battery-grade lithium carbonate, with expectations of supply-side cutbacks as prices continue to fall [2]. - The industry is facing a long-term oversupply situation, which is expected to suppress any potential price rebounds [2][3]. - The breakeven price for lithium carbonate processing companies is generally considered to be around 70,000 yuan/ton, but current prices have fallen below this threshold, leading many companies to reduce or halt production [2]. Industry Impact - The decline in lithium carbonate prices has negatively affected the performance of lithium-related listed companies, with most reporting revenue declines in 2024 [4]. - Companies are adjusting their cost structures and accelerating the development of domestic and international salt lake capacities to maintain profitability [4]. - For example, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. plans to apply for a project loan of up to 1.8 billion yuan to support the construction of a 40,000-ton/year lithium salt integrated project [4]. Future Outlook - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to continue growing from June to August 2023, while demand may enter a seasonal downturn [3]. - The industry anticipates that the overall market will remain in an oversupply situation until significant production cuts occur at mining operations [3].

-广告- 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电 和年初许多人预测的差不多，2025年碳酸锂的价格重心还是继续下移，比2024年的底部更低。 二季度以来，空头拿川普当枪使，碳酸锂眼见就要破 6。用一位锂盐厂家领导的话来说，这波空头主 力打的思路很清晰、很坚决、很稳定，作为锂盐厂虽然很气愤，超出了所有锂盐厂的预期，空头童话 的确实现了。 同时，随着价格逼近 6万，市场情绪又被逐渐调动了起来，有想追空的、有想抄底的， 碳 酸 锂 不 知 不觉间又成了热门品种，一些有大半年不碰碳酸锂的资金又开始蠢蠢欲动。 目前，市场分歧主要在于成本。 价格一旦跌破 6，国产矿里也只剩下锂辉石（自有矿）以及江 西个别技术领先的锂盐厂尚能维持，大部分锂盐厂都将处于亏损状态，近期检修确实已有增多的迹 象；同时，澳洲第二梯队锂矿以及非洲矿也将基本没有盈利空间，减不减产就看各自的综合实力了， 有个别非洲矿商家近日已明确表示800美元以下不出货。 智利碳酸锂出口预计依旧是"神一月鬼两 月"的节奏，不会出现连月出口爆种，万一锂价再往5万5以下砸，估计连智利也要掀桌子了， 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oversupply pattern in the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue in Q2, with no significant growth in demand-side production scheduling. The supply side shows no obvious improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de-stocking process. The main market contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and lithium salt prices [3]. - The fundamentals remain weak, but as the lithium carbonate price continues to decline, the probability of supply-side disturbances will increase. Be vigilant against sharp fluctuations caused by short covering. The short-term strong resistance level is 63,000 - 65,000 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Volatility - The pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 25.3%, and the current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) is 30.1% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high product inventories and inventory impairment risks, strategies include shorting lithium carbonate futures (using LC2508, selling, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2), selling call options (using over - the - counter/on - exchange options, selling, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 3), and buying out - of - the - money put options (using on - exchange/over - the - counter options, buying, strategy level 2) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include selling put options (using on - exchange/over - the - counter options, selling, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 1 - 3), buying long - term lithium carbonate contracts (using far - month lithium carbonate contracts, buying, hedging ratio based on procurement plan), and buying out - of - the - money call options (using on - exchange/over - the - counter options, buying, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 1) [2]. 3.3 Market News - It is rumored that several lithium salt plants plan to conduct maintenance in June, which is expected to affect the monthly lithium salt output by about 3,000 tons. Combined with last Thursday's shutdown, it is expected to affect the future monthly output by 4,500 tons, but it has little impact on the current lithium carbonate market [4]. 3.4利多 and利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: Positive macro - policies may stimulate power demand growth; the probability of upstream ore and lithium salt plant shutdowns and maintenance increases as prices fall; there is an expectation of "90 - day" export rush due to the easing of Sino - US game, leading to passive de - stocking; high open interest may cause a rebound in the market due to short profit - taking [5][6]. - **利空 Factors**: There are still many future lithium ore production expectations, and high inventories suppress ore prices, which may drag down lithium carbonate costs; both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are high and still in the process of inventory accumulation; industrial technology upgrades delay the clearance of high - cost production capacity [6]. 3.5 Price and Spread Data - **Futures Price Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 60,920, with a daily increase of 820 (1.36%), and a year - on - year decrease of 42.64%. The trading volume of the main contract is 392,469, with a daily increase of 130,487 (49.81%), and a year - on - year increase of 309.68%. The open interest of the futures main contract is 293,695, with a daily decrease of 32,777 (-10.04%), and a year - on - year increase of 71.11% [8]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The SMM average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,500, down 550 (-0.87%); the SMM average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,900, down 550 (-0.9%); the SMM average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide is 64,420, down 300 (-0.46%); the SMM average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide is 58,400, down 260 (-0.44%); the SMM average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.4 dollars/kg, down 0.05 (-0.59%); the fastmarkets average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.4 dollars/kg, with no change [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Brand Basis**: The basis quotes of various lithium carbonate brands remain unchanged compared to the previous day [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of LC07 - 08, LC08 - 11, LC11 - 12, and LC12 - 03 have different degrees of change compared to the previous period, with significant year - on - year changes [13]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spread**: The difference between electric and industrial carbonates is 1,600 (no change); the difference between battery - grade carbonate and hydroxide is 1,920, up 250 (14.97%); the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea and the domestic price is -4,080.28, down 131.83 (3.34%) [18]. - **Lithium Ore and Shipping Cost**: The average price of lithium mica (2% - 2.5%) is 1,260, down 20 (-1.56%); the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 688 dollars/ton, down 2 (-0.29%); the fastmarkets price of lithium spodumene (6%) is 645 dollars/ton (no change); the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, Zimbabwe) is 635 dollars/ton, down 15 (-2%) [20]. 3.6 Warehouse Receipt Data - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 34,154, a daily decrease of 825. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation shows that supply exceeds demand, and the price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The supply is stable with an expected increase in South American imports, while short - term demand growth is slower than supply. The price is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend, and a high - selling strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material production schedules [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View Supply Side - In April, domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 9% month - on - month. This week, production decreased by 795 tons to 15,048 tons. In March, production increased by 24% month - on - month to 78,730 tons. Pilbara Minerals lowered its lithium concentrate production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year. In March, China imported 534,500 tons of lithium ore, a 6% month - on - month decrease, and 18,100 tons of lithium carbonate, a 5% year - on - year decrease. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers [4] Demand Side - In May, the overall production schedule is expected to be flat month - on - month. In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2GWh, a 0.03% month - on - month decrease and a 49.0% year - on - year increase. Exports were 22.3GWh, a 2.9% month - on - month decrease and a 64.2% year - on - year increase. Sales were 118.1GWh, a 2.3% month - on - month increase and a 73.5% year - on - year increase. Policies are expected to support the new energy vehicle market [5] Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate inventory decreased. Factory inventory decreased by 242 tons to 34,543 tons, market inventory increased by 560 tons, and Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 851 tons [5] Strategy Suggestion - Supply is stable with expected high South American imports. Demand is good but affected by the US tariff policy. The short - term demand growth is slower than supply, and the lithium carbonate price is expected to remain under pressure. A high - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts and cathode material production schedules [5] 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the average price of lithium concentrate, lithium carbonate, and related products; production and inventory data of lithium carbonate, power batteries, and cathode materials; and import data of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene over different time periods (weekly, monthly, and yearly) [7][8][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be volatile. The price of the LC2507 contract is projected to range between 55,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton [1][4][5] - The market is transitioning from trading the logic of collapsing mine - end costs to trading the trend of mine shutdowns. However, due to the lack of concentrated shutdowns of high - cost projects and relatively low costs, there is no room for price rebound [4] - For hedging, it is recommended to increase the proportion of buying hedging to 50% in the short - term, and buy spot ore and sell on the futures market to lock in processing profits. In the long - term, selling hedging should still be the main strategy, with a short - term proportion of 30% [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - The LC2507 contract of lithium carbonate declined, with positions decreasing and then stabilizing, followed by a decline with increasing positions. The LC2507 contract closed at 60,960 yuan/ton, down 840 yuan/ton week - on - week; the LC2509 contract closed at 62,300 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price dropped 1,450 yuan/ton to 63,050 yuan/ton [1] - The SMM basis (2505 contract) weakened by 610 yuan/ton to 2,090 yuan/ton. The Fubao trader's premium/discount quotation was + 490 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2507 - 2509 contracts was - 1,340 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - The lithium ore price dropped to $690/ton, but the decline rate slowed. Some mines started to cut or halt production. In May, the Bikita mining area's emissions nearly stopped, and concentrator work was expected to be cut or stopped. Dongpeng's production cut affected about 1,500 tons of LCE per month [2] - In April, China imported 622,900 tons of spodumene, a 16.5% increase from the previous month, and 28,300 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56.3% increase from the previous month. In the future, the shipments of spodumene and lithium salts from Mali's Kodal and Goulamina projects will gradually increase, while shipments from Zimbabwe projects are expected to decrease. Lithium salt imports are expected to decrease due to high inventories and the cancellation of the reserve price [2] - This week, the lithium carbonate output was 16,093 tons, a 3.23% decrease from the previous week. The overall smelting - end operating rate was 45.75%, a decrease in operation [2] Demand - The 90 - day tariff relaxation period in the US brought a small amount of rush - shipping demand, mainly for the export of energy - storage batteries. However, the tariff level of 40.9% is still higher than the profit of battery cell manufacturers, so the overall effect is limited [2] - This week, the passenger car sales were 382,000 vehicles, among which new energy vehicle sales were 215,000 vehicles, a 3.59% decrease from the previous week. Currently, battery manufacturers' orders to cathode material manufacturers in June are expected to increase month - on - month. However, due to profit losses, cathode material enterprises are maintaining rigid raw material inventory, reducing cathode material production, and actively reducing inventory [2] 3.3 Inventory - The lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly. Upstream enterprises continued to accumulate inventory, while downstream enterprises actively reduced inventory. The lithium carbonate inventory was 13.2 tons, a decrease of 141 tons from last week. The number of futures warrants decreased to 35,800 tons [3] 3.4 Market Outlook - The market is expected to be volatile. The price of the 2507 contract is expected to range between 55,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton. For inter - delivery trading, no recommendation is given for now [4][5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-22 消息端扰动较多，盘面受消息扰动加大 市场分析 2025年5月21日，碳酸锂主力合约2507开于61060元/吨，收于61100元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨0.59%。当 日成交量为270174手，持仓量为329205手，较前一交易日减少10468手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳1950 元/吨。所有合约总持仓571450手，较前一交易日增加11744手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加26820手，成 交量增加，整体投机度为0.5。当日碳酸锂仓单36393手，较上个交易日减少152手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月21日电池级碳酸锂报价6.13-6.48万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.02万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.095-6.195万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.015万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下行。当前 碳酸锂市场延续弱势运行格局，价格持续承压。从当前市场成交情况来看，以贸易商与下游材料厂之间的成交为 主，但成交寥寥。下游材料厂在客供及长协比例较高的情况下，等待价格的进一步下探。上游锂盐厂虽挺价情绪 持续，但考虑到目前锂 ...

2025 年 5 月 22 日 商 品 研 究 | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 承压 | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com | 邵婉嫕 | | | | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | | | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | T-22 | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | | T-66 | | 2507合约（收盘价） | | 61,100 | 240 | -4,100 | -3,060 | -9,280 | -16,820 | | 2507合约（成交量） | | 270,174 | 27,898 | -107,351 | 66,360 | 213,449 | 266,264 | | | | 250 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that lithium carbonate futures are experiencing a downward trend, with a significant bearish sentiment in the market. As of May 20, the main contract for lithium carbonate has dropped to 60,860 yuan/ton [2] - The decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to increased cost optimization from industry chain integration and a continuous decrease in raw material prices, leading to weakened cost support for lithium carbonate [2] - Despite favorable macro policies, the lack of substantial demand support has prevented lithium carbonate prices from rebounding [2] Group 2 - Current downstream demand for lithium carbonate remains stable, with April demand recorded at 89,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2,625 tons and a year-on-year growth of 33.9%. May demand is expected to be 88,600 tons [3] - High inventory levels are exerting pressure on the market, with total inventory increasing to 131,900 tons as of May 15, including significant accumulation in upstream smelting plants [3] - The supply side remains relaxed, with upstream production recovering and overseas mineral arrivals increasing, maintaining significant supply pressure despite some production cuts in April and May [2][3] Group 3 - The market outlook for lithium carbonate remains weak, with supply-demand imbalances highlighted. Although supply pressure is expected to ease slightly in May, the downward trend in raw material costs is reducing support for prices [4] - The futures price is anticipated to test the 60,000 yuan/ton level, and if it breaks below this threshold, it may trigger accelerated declines in the market [4] - Overall, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures is expected to trade weakly within the range of 58,000 to 63,000 yuan/ton [4]

2025 年 5 月 20 日 商 品 研 究 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM、Fastmarkets 【宏观及行业新闻】 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 61,180 | -620 | -2,860 | -4,780 | -9,660 | -17,740 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 224,064 | -81,532 | -89,870 | 109,526 | 182,140 | 217,886 | ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - Due to the weak fundamentals of lithium carbonate remaining unimproved, with spot - end transactions mainly between traders and downstream enterprises and lithium salt manufacturers mainly holding prices, in the short term, the lithium carbonate futures price shows a rebound after a long - term decline. However, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged, the visible inventory continues to accumulate, the downstream purchasing willingness has not increased, the ore - end price continues to decline, and the lithium carbonate price remains weak [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,700 yuan, up 100 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 63,050 yuan, up 100 yuan [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Carbonate lithium 2505 closed at 64,780 yuan, up 2.5%; carbonate lithium 2506 at 65,140 yuan, up 2.65%; carbonate lithium 2507 at 65,200 yuan, up 3%; carbonate lithium 2508 at 66,120 yuan, up 2.64%; carbonate lithium 2509 at 66,280 yuan, up 2.57% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 713 yuan, down 1 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 760 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1360 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6300 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7340 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) average price is 31,445 yuan, up 50 yuan; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 146,070 yuan, down 10 yuan; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,375 yuan, up 20 yuan; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,325 yuan, down 10 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1650 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 500 yuan, down 1880 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 60 yuan, down 80 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 980 yuan, up 180 yuan [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons) is 131,569 tons, down 464 tons; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 54,852 tons, up 3819 tons; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 42,156 tons, down 3013 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 34,561 tons, down 1270 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 36,716 tons, up 272 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,000 yuan, and the profit is - 4192 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally and the profit are not clearly presented in a complete form [3] Company News - On May 12, CATL disclosed its H - share prospectus, H - share issue price cap, H - share Hong Kong public offering, etc., and is expected to be listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 20. The issue price range cap of CATL's H - share IPO is HK$263 per share, and a total of 118 million shares are planned to be issued. With the full exercise of relevant rights, the estimated total fundraising is US$4 - 5 billion (about RMB 28.95 - 36.19 billion) [3]