Economic Growth Expectations - The FOMC members project a median GDP growth of 1.6% for 2025, 1.4% for 2026, and 1.8% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median growth rate of 1.8% [2] - The central tendency for 2025 GDP growth is between 1.4% and 1.7%, with a range of 1.3% to 2.0% [2] Unemployment Rate Projections - The median unemployment rate is forecasted to be 4.5% for both 2025 and 2026, 4.3% for 2027, and 4.2% for 2028, with a long-term median of 4.0% [3] - The central tendency for 2025 unemployment rate is between 4.4% and 4.5%, with a range of 4.2% to 4.6% [3] Inflation Trends - The median forecast for the PCE price index year-on-year growth is 3.0% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028, with a long-term median of 2.0% [4] - The core PCE inflation forecast (excluding food and energy) is 3.1% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028 [4] Interest Rate Path - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is 3.6% at the end of 2025, 3.4% for 2026, and 3.1% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median of 3.0% [5] - The central tendency for the 2025 interest rate is between 3.6% and 4.1%, with a range of 2.9% to 4.4% [5] Comparison with Previous Forecasts - Compared to the June 2025 forecast, the median predictions for GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate remain unchanged, indicating stable assessments by FOMC members [6] Uncertainty and Risk Assessment - FOMC members assess that the uncertainty regarding GDP growth and inflation for 2025 is "similar to or higher than" the past 20 years [7] - Some members view the risks for GDP growth and unemployment as "roughly balanced," while inflation risks are seen as "roughly balanced" or "tilted upward" [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts after a 9-month pause, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25% [2][3] - The dot plot indicates that 9 out of 19 officials expect two more rate cuts in 2025, while 2 expect one cut, and 6 do not anticipate further cuts [2] - New board member Stephen I. Miran voted against the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead [2][4] Group 2 - Economic activity growth has slowed in the first half of the year, with a slight increase in unemployment, although it remains low [3] - Inflation has rebounded and remains elevated, with the committee's goal being maximum employment and a long-term inflation target of 2% [3] - The committee will continue to monitor the latest information affecting economic outlook and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as necessary [3]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate three times in late 2024, leading to a decline in deposit rates, making it crucial for consumers to seek high-yield savings accounts to maximize their interest earnings [1][5]. Group 1: Current Savings Rates - High-yield savings accounts offer significantly higher interest rates compared to traditional savings accounts, with rates reaching as high as 4% APY and averaging around 4% to 4.5% APY, while the average traditional savings account rate is only 0.39% [2][3]. - As of September 17, 2025, the highest savings account rate available is 4.30% APY, provided by EverBank and Western Alliance [4]. Group 2: Future Rate Expectations - Deposit account rates are closely linked to the federal funds rate; as the Fed lowers its target rate, deposit rates are expected to continue falling, with experts predicting two more cuts in 2025 [4][5]. Group 3: Considerations for Savings Accounts - High-yield savings accounts are suitable for short-term savings goals, providing a secure place to earn interest while maintaining accessibility to funds [6]. - While high-yield savings accounts offer attractive rates, they may not match the long-term growth potential of stock market investments, making them less ideal for long-term savings goals like retirement [6]. - Savings accounts are generally insured by the FDIC, providing a low-risk option for consumers [7].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's adjustments to the federal funds rate significantly influence borrowing costs across various loan types, including personal, auto, and private student loans [1][3][4] Impact on Loan Rates - The federal funds rate serves as a benchmark for lenders, affecting how much they charge for overnight lending, which in turn impacts consumer loan interest rates [3][4] - Between February 2022 and August 2023, the Fed raised the federal funds rate from 0.08% to 5.33% to combat inflation, leading to higher loan rates that remain elevated despite some rate cuts in 2024 [4][5] - The prime rate, which is typically set about three percentage points above the federal funds rate, also influences consumer loan rates, particularly for creditworthy borrowers [4] Personal Loan Rates - Average personal loan rates have remained high, decreasing slightly from 12.49% in February 2024 to 11.57% currently for two-year loans [5][6] - Most personal loans have fixed rates, meaning existing borrowers will not see changes in their rates, while new borrowers may face higher rates compared to previous years [6] Student Loan Rates - Federal student loan rates are set by Congress and are not directly influenced by the Fed, while private student loan rates are affected by the federal funds rate [7][9] - Federal student loan rates were particularly low at 2.75% for the 2020-21 academic year but have increased to 6.39% for the 2025-26 academic year [8] Auto Loan Rates - Auto loan rates are also influenced by the federal funds rate, with average rates for new car loans at 7% and used car loans at 10.7% as of August 2025 [11] - Various factors, including credit score and vehicle type, also play a role in determining auto loan rates [11] Strategies for Securing Competitive Rates - Improving credit scores and financial profiles can enhance the chances of securing better loan rates [13][15] - Shopping around with multiple lenders and comparing repayment terms can help borrowers find the best offers [17][19] - Timing borrowing decisions based on the Fed's rate changes can also be beneficial, particularly if rates are expected to decrease [20]

Economic Data Summary - Business inventories for July increased by 0.2%, matching the final June read [1] - The yield curve has steepened, with two-year note yields down by approximately three basis points, while 10-year yields remain stable [2] Housing Market Insights - Homebuilder sentiment in September remained unchanged at 32 on the NAHB index, which is below the neutral level of 50, indicating negative sentiment [2][3] - The index has been in a low range since May, with a previous reading of 41 in September of the previous year [3] - Builders are optimistic about lower mortgage rates potentially increasing buyer activity, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping to 6.25% [3] - NAHB's chief economist anticipates a federal funds rate cut, which could lower interest rates for builders and developers [4] - Current sales conditions remained at 34, while buyer traffic decreased to 21, and future sales expectations rose to 45, the highest since March [4] - 39% of builders reported cutting prices in September, an increase from 37% in August, marking the highest percentage in the post-COVID period [5]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street strategists are divided on whether the U.S. financing market will become more accommodative in the coming months, primarily due to increased volatility in overnight borrowing costs [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A series of events is driving up short-term interest rates, including the U.S. Treasury issuing more short-term bonds to rebuild cash reserves and the Federal Reserve reducing its balance sheet [1] - The use of key overnight lending tools by the central bank has dropped to nearly zero, raising investor concerns about the sharp rise in borrowing costs [1] - The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has been above the Federal Reserve's target rate since late August [1] Group 2: Divergent Views from Major Banks - JPMorgan, led by Teresa Ho, expects overnight rates to ease by year-end and recommends traders to buy December SOFR futures while selling equivalent federal funds futures [3] - JPMorgan anticipates the spread between SOFR (currently at 4.42%) and the 30-day federal funds rate (currently at 4.33%) to narrow by the end of 2025 [3] - Citigroup, led by Jason Williams, believes financing costs will remain high until year-end and suggests traders short December SOFR contracts relative to federal funds [4] Group 3: Future Projections - Citigroup expects SOFR to gradually rise in the coming months, citing guidance from the Treasury regarding increased Treasury bill auction sizes in October [4] - Barclays has exited a position betting on a narrowing spread between September SOFR and federal funds, indicating ongoing upward pressure on financing costs [4] - Morgan Stanley strategists believe market conditions may ease as soon as next month, suggesting a long position on the SOFR relative to federal funds spread for October 2025 [4] Group 4: Consensus on Historical Context - Both JPMorgan and Citigroup agree that the situation from September 2019, when financing costs surged and the Federal Reserve injected hundreds of billions into the financing market, is unlikely to repeat [5]

格隆汇9月15日｜投资管理公司Payden & Rygel表示，美联储本周降息25个基点还是50个基点只是"次要 分歧"。其分析师指出，关键在于当前劳动力市场处于脆弱平衡状态——这与2024年的情况截然不同。 他们表示："为避免平衡崩溃，美联储应如理事沃勒近期演讲所建议的'尽快推进降息'。"该公司对未来 12-15个月的经济展望表明，联邦基金利率应逐步接近3%。目前美联储设定的联邦基金利率目标区间为 4.25%-4.50%。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference after the most recent meeting in July. As the next meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee approaches, investors, economists, and policymakers are trying to predict how the central bankers will react to a weakening labor market and stubborn unemployment. When is the next Fed meeting? The next meeting of the FOMC will take place over Sept. 16 and 17. During this meeting, the members will ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the August CPI data is expected to influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with traders adjusting their positions based on recent economic indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Weak employment data and moderate producer price data have led traders to anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's meeting on September 16-17, with two additional cuts possible by the end of the year [1][2]. - The market's perception of economic risks has shifted, with a tendency to believe that the Fed will lower rates below neutral levels to stimulate growth and avoid recession [1][3]. - The August producer price index unexpectedly declined, causing a drop in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which fell to 3.51% [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Traders are pricing in three 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to just below 3%, which is viewed as the neutral rate [2][3]. - The market's rapid pricing of significant rate cuts amid persistent inflation is seen as surprising, with some analysts suggesting that inflation driven by tariffs may be temporary [3][4]. - Global bond markets have been rising due to expectations of renewed rate cuts by the Fed and other developed countries, although long-term bonds have lagged due to cautious investor sentiment regarding government spending [3][4]. Group 3: Political Influences - Political factors, including President Trump's criticism of the Fed's rate cuts, are influencing market positioning and expectations for future rate cuts [4][5]. - The Fed's current stance indicates that key rates are above neutral levels, which is intended to cool inflation [4][5]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Concerns about economic downturn risks are expected to increase demand for the Fed's accommodative policies, with investors likely to price in a lower policy rate than previously anticipated [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is engaged in a heated debate regarding the neutral interest rate (r-star) amidst challenges of weakening economic momentum and liquidity management [1][2] - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that structural factors limiting long-term interest rates remain strong, suggesting that the natural equilibrium rate of the U.S. economy is still hovering at pre-pandemic lows [1][2] - The current target range for the federal funds rate is maintained at 4.25%-4.5%, with median forecasts for the neutral rate around 3%, reflecting significant internal divergence among policymakers [2] Group 2 - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that employment concerns have become a key consideration, opening the door for a potential rate cut in September due to rising unemployment [3] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction process is entering a critical phase, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan warning of potential temporary pressures in the money market [4] - The current reserve balance in the banking system stands at $3.3 trillion, indicating substantial room before reaching the estimated "minimum adequate level" of $2.7 trillion [4] Group 3 - Lorie Logan emphasized the need for reform in communication mechanisms within the Fed, proposing changes to the presentation of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) to enhance policy transparency [5] - Analysts predict that the Fed will face three major challenges in the coming months: the debate over the magnitude of rate cuts due to differing views on neutral rates, precision in liquidity management during the balance sheet reduction phase, and maintaining policy continuity amid leadership transitions [6] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs' chief economist expects the Fed may implement an unconventional 50 basis point cut in September if the labor market deteriorates faster than anticipated [7] - UBS Wealth Management's investment director highlighted two critical moments for investors to watch: the September FOMC meeting's guidance on rate cuts and market reactions when reserve levels exceed $3 trillion in the fourth quarter [7]