Group 1 - Guotai Junan International received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its existing securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services, leading to a significant market reaction with its stock price surging by 198.4% on June 25 [1] - The approval has sparked interest in the virtual asset trading market, with 40 institutions now authorized to offer such services, including Tianfeng International and Huafu Securities, indicating a growing recognition of virtual asset trading services in the market [1] - The event has created a ripple effect in the brokerage sector, with several Chinese brokerage stocks experiencing price changes, reflecting investor optimism about the expansion of virtual asset trading services [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities announced plans to issue the first broker-dealer technology innovation bond in the interbank market, with an initial issuance size of 500 million yuan, marking a significant expansion of financing channels for brokerages [2] - The total issuance of technology innovation bonds by brokerages in the exchange market has surpassed 100 billion yuan, with major players like CITIC Securities and Guotai Haitong leading the way [2] - The issuance of these bonds is expected to bolster the capital strength and market confidence of the issuing brokerages, while also reflecting the industry's support for technology innovation [3] Group 3 - In June, the new fund issuance scale exceeded 90 billion yuan, with bond funds becoming particularly popular, indicating a shift in investor preference towards more stable investment strategies amid market volatility [4] - Mixed-asset FOF funds emerged as the top fund-raising category in June, while passive index products saw a decline in issuance, suggesting a cautious market sentiment among investors [4] - The changes in fund flows reflect an adaptive response to the current market conditions, with a trend towards conservative investment approaches [4] Group 4 - The first batch of 15 floating-rate funds has been established, attracting over 150 billion yuan in total subscriptions and more than 180,000 effective subscriptions, indicating strong market acceptance of these products [5] - The establishment of these floating-rate funds is expected to alleviate the decline in active equity fund issuance, thereby boosting investor confidence [5] - The successful launch of these funds may enhance the long-term development prospects for fund companies and increase interest in related sectors such as financial technology and fund distribution [6]

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 26 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 6 月 25 日，万得全 A 再次放量上涨，开盘震荡运行后一路走高，超 7 成个股 飘红，指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 1.44%、 1.17%、1.68%、1.32%，大盘蓝筹股表现更优。指数期货表现强于现货，IF、IH、 IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 1.83%、1.51%、2.26%、2.08%（按前一交易日收盘价为 基准计算）。 | 表1:股指期货、 ...

Group 1 - Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed the expectation for foreign companies to provide more quality products and services to the Chinese market and emphasized the importance of cooperation in technology and industry to achieve mutual benefits and enhance competitiveness [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 300 billion yuan MLF operation, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased liquidity, with a total net liquidity injection of 318 billion yuan in June [1] - The Ministry of Finance reported that national lottery sales in May reached 57.036 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, driven by increased sports events and a low base from the previous year [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission noted that since the release of the reform opinions on mergers and acquisitions, the Shenzhen market has seen 903 new disclosures of mergers and acquisitions totaling 423.5 billion yuan, with significant growth in major asset restructurings [1] - The Shanghai Municipal Government is soliciting opinions on the development plan for the marine industry, aiming to build a world-class shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment industry cluster by 2030 [1] - The Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued measures to promote high-quality development in service consumption, including expanding openness in the biotechnology and medical sectors [1] Group 3 - Guotai Junan International Holdings received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its securities trading license to include virtual asset trading services, leading to a significant increase in its stock price [1] - China Construction Bank announced a specific issuance of A-shares totaling 11.589 billion shares at a price of 9.06 yuan per share, raising a total of 105 billion yuan [1] - Xiaomi is set to launch its first SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, along with other products, indicating a strong push into the automotive and technology markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The approval of Guotai Junan International by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its existing securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services has sparked significant market activity, marking it as the first Chinese-funded brokerage in Hong Kong to offer comprehensive virtual asset-related trading services [1][3]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Guotai Junan International's stock surged nearly 200% on June 25, contributing to an 11.75% increase in the Hong Kong Chinese brokerage index and a 5.52% rise in the Wind brokerage index [2][4]. - The approval has led to a broader rally in the market, with several other brokerage stocks, including Tianfeng Securities and Dongfang Caifu, also experiencing significant gains [2][5]. Virtual Asset Trading Services - Guotai Junan International can now directly facilitate trading in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as stablecoins like Tether, and provide advisory services related to virtual asset trading [3][5]. - The company has been proactive in the virtual asset space, having launched a virtual asset spot ETF-based structured product in 2024 and obtaining licenses for tokenized securities distribution and digital bond issuance in 2025 [3]. Regulatory Landscape - As of June 24, 2025, a total of 40 institutions have upgraded their licenses to provide virtual asset trading services, including 38 brokerages, one bank, and one internet company [6][8]. - Notably, ZA Bank has become the first licensed bank in Asia to offer cryptocurrency trading services to retail investors, with promotional offers to attract new clients [6]. Future Developments - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has outlined a regulatory roadmap for the virtual asset market, focusing on ensuring investor asset safety, introducing diverse products like ETFs and tokenized assets, and enhancing infrastructure for trading stability [9]. - Several other Chinese-funded brokerages, including Huatai International and China Merchants Securities International, are actively preparing to enter the virtual asset trading space, indicating a strategic shift in the industry [10].

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a significant influx of capital, with major indices rising over 1%, and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year at 3455.97 points [1][2] - The multi-financial sector, including brokerage and banking stocks, has performed exceptionally well, with several stocks hitting their daily limit up [1][2] - Military equipment stocks have gained traction, driven by geopolitical factors and recent military successes, with multiple stocks experiencing substantial increases [2][3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on Chinese assets, projecting a target of 4600 points for the CSI 300 index, indicating a potential upside of approximately 10% [4] - The market sentiment has improved significantly, with trading volumes increasing, providing support for a potential rebound [4][5] - The recent policies aimed at stabilizing and activating capital markets are expected to benefit the securities sector, suggesting a positive trend for the industry [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market has seen a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through resistance levels and reaching a year-to-date high, supported by increased trading volume of 1.6 trillion yuan, up by 188.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4][20]. - The bond market is expected to experience high-level fluctuations, influenced by the performance of the stock market, which may continue to suppress bond market performance if it remains strong [4][16]. - The US stock market is anticipated to challenge new highs as speculative sentiment returns, with reduced risks from rising oil prices and US Treasury yields [5][27]. Group 2: Sector Performance - In the A-share market, sectors such as military, securities, internet finance, and insurance have shown strong performance, while oil and gas, pesticides, and film sectors have lagged [20][21]. - The commodity market has seen a decline in the Wenhua Commodity Index by 0.5%, with energy sectors leading the downturn, while non-ferrous and ferrous metals recorded gains [6][35]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Developments - Domestic policies emphasize expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption to promote high-quality economic development, as highlighted by the Vice Premier's recent remarks [7][41]. - Internationally, the EU is preparing to implement additional tariff countermeasures against the US, indicating ongoing trade tensions [7][42].

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3455.97 points, marking a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index rising over 3% [1] - Total trading volume in the two markets reached 16,028 billion yuan, an increase of 1,882 billion yuan compared to the previous period [1] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment is steadily improving, with Fidelity International's survey indicating that the average investment return for mainland Chinese investors since 2025 is 4.3%, surpassing the Asia-Pacific average of 3.2% [2] - 74% of respondents reported feeling "comfortable" with their current financial situation, a significant increase from 2024 [2] Foreign Institutional Perspective - Several large foreign institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Nomura, have expressed positive views on the Chinese equity market [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, projecting a target of 4600 points for the CSI 300 Index, implying about a 10% upside potential [3] - Nomura's strategy team believes that Chinese equity assets will outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong domestic policy expectations and favorable liquidity conditions in emerging markets [3] Brokerage Sector Performance - The brokerage sector has been a key driver of market enthusiasm, with significant gains observed in stocks such as Guosen Securities and Tianfeng Securities [4] - Guotai Junan International became the first Chinese brokerage to obtain a virtual asset trading license, which catalyzed the overall strength of the brokerage sector [4] - The discussion around virtual asset trading has gained traction, with experts emphasizing the need for brokerages to enhance their capabilities in compliance, risk control, and technology integration [4] Virtual Asset Market Potential - The trend towards the compliance and institutionalization of virtual assets presents substantial growth opportunities for brokerages [5] - The success of U.S. brokerage Robinhood, which has seen its stock price rise over 540% due to its cryptocurrency trading services, highlights the potential for similar growth in the Chinese market [5] - Robinhood's trading-related revenue reached $670 million in Q4, with cryptocurrency revenue alone at $360 million, indicating a significant shift in revenue sources for brokerages [5]

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan International has become the first Chinese broker in Hong Kong to offer comprehensive virtual asset trading services, allowing clients to trade cryptocurrencies and stablecoins directly on its platform, which has significantly impacted the capital market [1][6][8]. Group 1: Company Developments - On June 24, Guotai Junan International received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its existing securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services [6][8]. - The company aims to enhance its service ecosystem in the virtual asset sector and plans to explore deeper integration of fintech and virtual asset businesses [8][19]. - Guotai Junan International's stock surged nearly 200% following the announcement, marking a significant milestone in its market performance [1][10]. Group 2: Market Impact - The entry of Guotai Junan International into the virtual asset market has sparked a strong reaction in the capital markets, with other brokerage stocks in Hong Kong also experiencing gains [9][10]. - The A-share market saw a resurgence in stablecoin-related stocks, indicating a broader interest in virtual assets following Guotai Junan's announcement [11][19]. Group 3: Industry Landscape - The approval of Guotai Junan International is expected to accelerate the overall layout of Chinese brokers in the virtual asset sector, with other major firms like CITIC Securities and Haitong International closely monitoring the developments [19][20]. - The current regulatory framework in Hong Kong allows various financial institutions to engage in virtual asset operations, with a total of 11 platforms already approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission [13][14]. - Traditional brokers entering the virtual asset market may lead to a shift towards a more institutionalized and diversified market, reducing speculative risks for investors [23].

Group 1: Market Activity - Southbound funds net bought Hong Kong stocks worth 95.74 billion HKD on June 25 [1] - Notable net purchases included Guotai Junan International (16.62 billion HKD), SMIC (14.25 billion HKD), and China Construction Bank (8.92 billion HKD) [1] - Significant net sales were observed in Tencent Holdings (5.51 billion HKD), Alibaba-W (4.6 billion HKD), and Xiaomi Group-W (3.06 billion HKD) [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Guotai Junan International saw a remarkable increase of 198.4% with a net purchase of 13.69 billion HKD [4] - SMIC experienced a 5.6% rise with a net purchase of 7.39 billion HKD [4] - Xiaomi Group-W had a slight decline of 0.4% with a net sale of 4.16 billion HKD [4] Group 3: Company Developments - Guotai Junan International received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its securities trading license to include virtual asset trading services [5] - SMIC is facing potential changes as the U.S. Department of Commerce plans to revoke the "indefinite exemption" for semiconductor companies operating in mainland China [5] - China Ping An's shareholding by BlackRock increased from 5.91% to 6.04% as of June 19 [6] Group 4: Industry Trends - The insurance sector in Hong Kong is experiencing a wave of shareholding increases, with 19 instances reported by June 20, 2025, involving 16 companies [6] - Xiaomi announced the launch of its AI glasses, which have already received 250,000 pre-orders [6] - The launch of the Cross-Border Payment System on June 22 marks a significant step in connecting mainland China and Hong Kong's payment systems [6]

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the license upgrade allows Guotai Junan International to directly trade cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, marking a significant step in the development of virtual asset trading services in Hong Kong [1][4]. Group 1: Company Developments - On June 24, Guotai Junan International received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its existing securities trading license to include virtual asset trading services [3]. - Following the license upgrade, Guotai Junan International's stock price surged to HKD 3.7 per share, a 198.39% increase, reaching its highest level since July 2015 [2]. - Guotai Junan International is now the first Chinese broker in Hong Kong to offer comprehensive virtual asset trading services, including trading, advisory, and issuance of related products [4]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Xu Kang, Chief Analyst at Huachuang Securities, believes that Guotai Junan International's early involvement in virtual asset services and the faster-than-expected approval process positions it well for future growth [4]. - The ongoing development of Hong Kong's cryptocurrency and virtual asset trading ecosystem is expected to enhance its strategic position in Web 3.0, supported by a complete regulatory framework and expanding participation [5]. - The Hong Kong Legislative Council passed the Stablecoin Bill on May 21, 2025, indicating a clear strategic commitment to developing virtual assets, leveraging its mature financial infrastructure and international regulatory framework [6].