1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - BZ futures maintain a certain premium, with strong downstream demand for pure benzene, leading to a decline in pure benzene port inventory from a high level. High开工 rates of styrene and CPL support demand, and the increase in polymer MDI开工 drives up aniline开工. However, the sustainability of high CPL开工 is questionable due to the decline in PA6 and nylon filament开工. On the supply side, the pressure of South Korean exports to China remains, and domestic开工 is still high, resulting in the continued weak consolidation of pure benzene processing fees. - For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly, and the EB basis is further weakening. Domestically, EB maintains a high开工 rate. In terms of demand, EPS开工 is increasing, but there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS, suppressing their开工 rates. - The recommended trading strategies are to remain on the sidelines for pure benzene, and to sell short styrene at high prices for hedging. For basis and inter - period spreads, conduct reverse hedging for near - month BZ paper goods against distant - end BZ2603 futures at high prices; conduct reverse inter - period spreads for EB2508 - 2509 and EB2509 - 2510. For cross - variety spreads, narrow the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 202 yuan/ton (+4), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 85 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton). The spread between the first - month contract and the third - month contract is also provided in the figures [1][11]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 116 yuan/ton (- 61 yuan/ton), and the inter - period spreads between EB2508 - 2509 and EB2509 - 2510 are recommended for reverse hedging [1][3]. 3.2 Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 160 dollars/ton (+2 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 143 dollars/ton (+2 dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 128.9 dollars/ton (- 24.1 dollars/ton). Downstream production profits include - 1818 yuan/ton (+42) for caprolactam, - 667 yuan/ton (+0) for phenol - acetone, - 97 yuan/ton (+74) for aniline, and - 1428 yuan/ton (- 14) for adipic acid [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 54 yuan/ton (- 87 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. The EB - BZ spread is recommended to be narrowed at high prices [1][3]. 3.3 Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.40 million tons (- 1.00 million tons), and the开工 rate of downstream products such as caprolactam is 91.72% (- 4.00%), phenol is 81.00% (+3.00%), aniline is 75.86% (+4.96%), and adipic acid is 64.80% (- 0.90%) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 138,500 tons (+27,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 45,000 tons (+6,000 tons), and the开工 rate is 78.3% (- 0.9%) [1]. 3.4 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 324 yuan/ton (+119 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 53.18% (+2.12%). - PS production profit is - 126 yuan/ton (+69 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 50.60% (- 0.50%). - ABS production profit is 490 yuan/ton (+77 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 65.90% (+0.90%). The downstream开工 is at a seasonal low [2]. 3.5 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam开工 rate is 91.72% (- 4.00%), and the production profit is - 1818 yuan/ton (+42). - Phenol - acetone开工 rate is 81.00% (+3.00%), and the production profit is - 667 yuan/ton (+0). - Aniline开工 rate is 75.86% (+4.96%), and the production profit is - 97 yuan/ton (+74). - Adipic acid开工 rate is 64.80% (- 0.90%), and the production profit is - 1428 yuan/ton (- 14) [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 18, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 18, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,010, the LME price was 9,538, and the ratio was 8.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of - 219.86. The domestic three - month price was 77,830, the LME price was 9,597, and the ratio was 8.12 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,120, the LME price was 2,693, and the ratio was 8.21. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.68, with a profit of - 1,248.97. The domestic three - month price was 22,085, the LME price was 2,696, and the ratio was 6.24 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,570, the LME price was 2,564, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.53, with a profit of - 1,293.96. The domestic three - month price was 20,355, the LME price was 2,567, and the ratio was 7.96 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118,550, the LME price was 14,787, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 2,413.78 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,625, the LME price was 1,946, and the ratio was 8.58. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, with a profit of - 540.93. The domestic three - month price was 16,905, the LME price was 1,974, and the ratio was 11.19 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 130, - 150, - 190, and - 290 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 492, 882, 1281, and 1680 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 75, 40, 10, and - 35, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 452, and 571 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 60, - 120, - 185, and - 240, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 328, 442, and 557 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, 10, 30, and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 315, 420, and 526 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 580, - 460, - 220, and - 70 [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 450, and the theoretical spread was 5437 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 20 and - 150, and the theoretical spreads were 465 and 878 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 75 and 0, and the theoretical spreads were 186 and 315 (also 172 and 286 in another record) [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 270 and 250, and the theoretical spreads were 216 and 327 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 18, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.52, 3.82, 4.60, 0.92, 1.20, and 0.77 respectively, and in London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.53, 3.75, 4.90, 0.94, 1.31, and 0.72 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - As of July 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts volume was 11,204 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2507 contract was 18,761 tons, 2.6 times the delivery volume of LC2506. Among them, the volume of rolling delivery warehouse receipts was 13,884 tons, accounting for 74%, and the volume of transfer of futures to cash was 3,357 tons, accounting for 18% [4]. - In late June 2025, there was an opportunity for a "buy spot - sell 07" trade. The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts generally showed a positive spread trend, possibly related to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts [4]. - The futures market is relatively strong, causing the basis to weaken. Those with the ability to register warehouse receipts can appropriately participate in the "buy spot - sell 09" combination, and upstream hedgers can still participate in selling hedges at high prices. If the warehouse receipts do not increase significantly near the delivery date, there is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts. The "buy 08/09 - sell 11" positive spread combination can be held, and continuous attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts and timely profit - taking [4]. - Since May, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have been decreasing, and the enthusiasm for registering new warehouse receipts is low. With the mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of July, there is a high possibility of insufficient delivery warehouse receipts for the 08 and subsequent contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Delivery Information - As of July 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts volume was 11,204 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2507 contract was 18,761 tons, 2.6 times the delivery volume of LC2506. Delivery matching was mainly concentrated at the beginning of the month. Rolling delivery warehouse receipts volume was 13,884 tons (74%), one - time centralized delivery was 1,520 tons (8%), and transfer of futures to cash was 3,357 tons (18%) [7]. - The report lists the delivery volumes of various buyer and seller members. For example, among buyers, Guotai Junan Futures had a delivery volume of 6,025 tons, and among sellers, CITIC Futures had a delivery volume of 3,284 tons [8]. 3.2 Futures Warehouse Receipt Distribution - Since May, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have been decreasing, and low prices have not attracted new warehouse receipts registration. With the mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of July, if we assume that warehouse receipts registered after June 5 meet the conditions, only 2,028 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered from June 5 to July 16. There is a high possibility of insufficient delivery warehouse receipts for the 08 and subsequent contracts [12]. - The report details the warehouse receipt distribution in different regions and specific warehouses and factories, such as the warehouse receipts in warehouses like COSCO Shipping Zhenjiang and factories like Shengxin Lithium Energy (Suining) [12]. 3.3 Review of Basis and Inter - period Opportunities - About one month before the delivery of the 07 contract, the holding cost of lithium carbonate was about 1,277 yuan/ton (after offsetting margin with warehouse receipts, the futures capital cost can be saved). Starting from the end of June 2025, there was an opportunity for a "buy spot - sell futures" trade for those with the ability to register warehouse receipts. The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts generally showed a positive spread trend, possibly related to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts [16][18][19]. 3.4 Later Evaluation - The holding cost of the "buy spot - sell 09" combination is about 1,668 yuan/ton. The current spot - futures basis is below - 1,500. Those with the ability to register warehouse receipts can appropriately participate in the "buy spot - sell 09" combination [21]. - As of July 16, the exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts volume decreased to 10,655 tons. Due to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts and the warehouse receipt cancellation rule at the end of July, the risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts is expected to increase. If the warehouse receipts do not increase significantly near the delivery date, there is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts. The "buy 08/09 - sell 11" positive spread combination can be held, and continuous attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: Suspended [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the expansion of the Comex - LME spread under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to the decline of copper prices in non - US markets. The domestic copper price is temporarily suppressed, and the domestic social inventory has increased. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude for now [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 77,960 yuan/ton and closed at 77,980 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,810 yuan/ton and closed at 77,950 yuan/ton, down 0.01% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 70 - 120 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, with an average of 95 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 77,970 - 78,150 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain firm, but the regional price difference may widen [2]. Important Information Summary - Macro and geopolitical: The US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%. Trump showed a draft letter to fire the Fed Chairman Powell. Traders believe the probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeds 50%. The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro (2.3 - trillion - dollar) budget plan. China's Q2 GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year [3]. - Mine end: On July 16, Antofagasta's Q2 2025 copper production was 160,100 tons, up 3% quarter - on - quarter, and gold production was 48,300 ounces, up 13% quarter - on - quarter [4]. - Smelting and import: In May 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.3775 million tons, with a supply surplus of 84,200 tons. Freeport Indonesia expects 2025 copper concentrate production to be 2.964 million tons, lower than the previous forecast [5]. - Consumption: On July 16, the copper rod order volume of 31 domestic copper rod producers and 6 traders was 14,000 tons, down 9.38% from the previous day [6]. - Inventory and warehouse receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 850 tons to 121,000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 109 tons to 50,242 tons. On July 14, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,600 tons [6]. 2. Strategy - Copper: Adopt a neutral strategy and wait and see for now [7]. - Arbitrage: Suspend operations [7]. - Options: Suspend operations [7]. 3. Data Table - The table shows data on copper prices, basis, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, import profitability, and price ratios over different time periods (July 17, 2025; July 16, 2025; July 10, 2025; June 17, 2025) [26][27][28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas methanol production is operating at a high level, leading to significant arrival pressure in China and a rapid accumulation of port inventories. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. Meanwhile, the Xingxing MTO maintenance plan is yet to be implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress of Nanjing Chengzhi's maintenance or load - reduction plan in late July [2]. - In the inland region, short - term maintenance of coal - based methanol has reduced supply. Although the formaldehyde industry is in a seasonal off - peak period, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid are acceptable. There is still sufficient demand resilience inland, and the inventory pressure on inland methanol factories is not significant. The inland market is stronger than the port market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts showing methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol Taicang basis and main contract, basis of different regions' spot - main futures, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts [6][22]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts are provided to display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [26][34]. III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Data shows that the total port inventory of methanol is 790,200 tons (+71,300 tons), with Jiangsu port inventory at 454,000 tons (+59,000 tons), Zhejiang port inventory at 180,000 tons (+4,500 tons), and Guangdong port inventory at 106,000 tons (-6,000 tons). The downstream MTO operating rate is 85.15% (+0.55%). The inland factory inventory is 352,340 tons (-4,560 tons), and the northwest factory inventory is 218,000 tons (-10,000 tons). The inland factory's pending orders are 243,119 tons (+21,879 tons), and the northwest factory's pending orders are 113,600 tons (+13,600 tons) [1][2]. IV. Regional Price Differences - The report lists various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest (-280 spread - 3 yuan/ton, +3 yuan/ton), the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550 spread - 141 yuan/ton, -1 yuan/ton), etc. [2]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - There are charts showing the production profits of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [55][60]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Hedge by short - selling the 09 contract at high prices. - Inter - period: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread at high prices. - Cross - variety: No strategy is provided [3].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/17 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78060 9576 8.15 三月 77940 9641 8.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -149.02 现货出口 -105.62 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22060 2686 8.21 三月 21995 2695 6.27 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.68 -1243.32 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20520 2579 7.96 三月 20360 2581 7.92 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.51 -1436.31 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119950 14947 8.02 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -2104.30 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on July 16, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 16, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,025, the LME price was 9,596, and the ratio was 8.19; the three - month domestic price was 77,990, the LME price was 9,645, and the ratio was 8.09. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of - 326.69 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,150, the LME price was 2,702, and the ratio was 8.20; the three - month domestic price was 22,070, the LME price was 2,712, and the ratio was 6.28. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.68, with a profit of - 1,293.29 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,510, the LME price was 2,590, and the ratio was 7.92; the three - month domestic price was 20,395, the LME price was 2,592, and the ratio was 7.88. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.52, with a profit of - 1,549.55 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118,450, the LME price was 14,799, and the ratio was 8.00. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 2,657.39 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,800, the LME price was 1,956, and the ratio was 8.61; the three - month domestic price was 16,965, the LME price was 1,988, and the ratio was 11.13. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, with a profit of - 480.20 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 16, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were - 360, - 460, - 490, and - 540 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 494, 887, 1288, and 1689 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 95, - 110, - 110, and - 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 334, 454, and 574 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 55, - 90, - 150, and - 215 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 328, 442, and 557 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 100, - 65, - 35, and - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 316, 422, and 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 2320, - 2180, - 1950, and - 1790 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 460, and the theoretical spread was 5451 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 475 and 115 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 561 and 940 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 30 and - 65 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 185 and 314 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 230 and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 218 and 330 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 16, 2025, for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc, the Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios were 3.53, 3.82, 4.60, 0.92, 1.20, and 0.77 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios were 3.58, 3.74, 4.83, 0.96, 1.29, and 0.74 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Options: Suspended [8] Core View of the Report - This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the widening of the spread between Comex and LME under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to a decline in copper prices in non - US markets. Domestic copper prices are temporarily suppressed, and social inventories have increased. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude for now [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 15, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 77,900 yuan/ton and closed at 78,090 yuan/ton, a - 0.40% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,960 yuan/ton and closed at 78,070 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at a premium of 90 - 180 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract, with an average premium of 135 yuan/ton, a 155 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. As it was the last trading day of the 2507 contract, the market mainly quoted for the 2508 contract. After entering the 2508 contract, it is expected that the initial quote will maintain a 150 - yuan/ton premium, but the spot premium may quickly decline due to low inventory costs and weak demand [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: In the US, the overall CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, and the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%. Interest rate futures show that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this month is small, but there is a high possibility of a 25 - basis - point cut in September. The US and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the US will impose a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods. China's economy grew 5.3% year - on - year in the first half of the year, and 5.2% in the second quarter [3] - **Mine End**: On July 14, Tyranna Resources signed an agreement to acquire a 70% stake in the Maongo copper - gold project in Angola, which is expected to get approval in the third quarter [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In June 2025, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 6.95 million tons, a 4.4% year - on - year increase. The cumulative output from January to June was 40.32 million tons, a 2.9% cumulative year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export in China" [4] - **Consumption**: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rebounded to 67%, but was still 4.56 percentage points lower than expected. The operating rate of the copper cable industry reached 71.52%. It is expected that the operating rate of copper rod enterprises will rise to 74.57% next week, and the operating rate of the copper cable industry will fall to 70.57% [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 850 tons to 110,475 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 15,754 tons to 50,133 tons. On July 14, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,600 tons, a change of 3,900 tons from the previous week [6][7] Table Data - The table shows copper price and basis data from July 16, 2025, including spot premiums, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, and import profitability [29][30][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Options: Suspended [6] Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a volatile downward trend, mainly due to the widening spread between Comex and LME under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to a decline in non-US market copper prices. Domestic copper prices are temporarily suppressed, and domestic social inventories have increased. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On July 14, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,040 yuan/ton and closed at 78,400 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 77,900 yuan/ton and closed at 78,020 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The domestic electrolytic copper spot market trading was stable. The SMM1 copper was quoted at 78,370 - 78,540 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day. The market supply was sufficient, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery was average. It is expected that today's quotes will remain firm [2]. - **Important Information Summary**: - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Trump threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if the Russia-Ukraine conflict agreement is not reached within 50 days, and also impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Brazil will announce counter - tariff measures against the US, and the EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods. The European Central Bank will discuss a more negative situation next week [3]. - **Mine End**: Rio Tinto is optimistic about the US government's push for domestic key mineral production and hopes to increase investment in US copper mining. Mercuria Energy Group and a Zambian state - owned company will ship copper ore for the first time. In Peru, protests by informal miners may affect the production of two major copper mines [3]. - **Smelting and Import**: As of the week of July 8, the net long position of COMEX copper futures held by funds continued to increase to 39,604 lots. The US tariff policy on imported copper led to a sharp rise in US copper prices and increased fund bulls' confidence [3]. - **Consumption**: - **Copper Rod Enterprises**: The operating rate last week rebounded to 67%, but was still lower than expected. It is expected to rise to 74.57% next week, but the actual resumption progress may be less than expected [4]. - **Copper Cable Industry**: The operating rate reached 71.52%, an unexpected rebound. However, due to terminal capital pressure, it is expected to fall to 70.57% next week [4][5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 625 tons to 109,625 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 11,072 tons to 34,379 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on July 14 was 14.76 million tons, changing by 0.39 million tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - For copper, it is recommended to take a neutral stance and wait - and - see. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to suspend operations [6].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 14 日 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2510 | 773.56 | 0.03% | #N/A | #N/A | | | 黄金T+D | 769.30 | 0.01% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex黄金2510 | 3370.30 | 1.12% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3355.37 | 0.95% | - | - | | | 沪银2510 | 9040 | 1.36% | #N/A | #N/A | | 格 | 白银T+D | 9028 | 1.46% | #N/A | #N/A | ...