期指：静待走稳 2025 年 8 月 4 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 4054.93 | ↓0.51 | | 3596.9 | | | | | | IF2508 | 4042.8 | ↓0.52 | -12.13 | 341.1 | 28026 | ↓9717 | 44554 | ↓76 | | IF2509 | 4029.6 | ↓0.52 | -25.33 | 690.2 | 56881 | ↓34566 | 151416 | ↓6186 | | IF2512 | 3997.2 | ↓0.48 | -57.7 ...

人民财讯8月3日电，招商策略认为，行业选择层面，展望8月份，月底会迎来上市公司中报业绩披露高 峰，超预期和悲观业绩预期落地都是下一个阶段A股的重点布局方向。参考工业企业盈利、库存阶段、 行业景气度等多个维度判断业绩修复的领域。结合中观景气、盈利能力、筹码分布、估值、交易、周期 阶段和赛道价值等多个维度，推荐关注非银(证券)、医药生物(化学制药)、电力设备、机械(自动化设 备、工程机械)、国防军工、计算机等。赛道选择层面，8月重点关注五大具备边际改善的赛道：AI应 用、AI硬件、非银金融、国防军工、创新药。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月02日 金融工程日报 A 股震荡走低，AI 智能体午后走强、AI 硬件方向走低 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20250801 规模指数中中证 2000 指数表现较好，板块指数中深证 综指表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 价值指数表现较好。传媒、轻工制造、 家电、纺织服装、汽车行业表现较好，石油石化、国防军工、钢铁、通信、 非银行业表现较差。快递、PVC 地板、智慧停车、动物疫苗、K-12 教育等概 念表现较好，稀土、中船系、稳定币、磁电存储、电路板等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20250801 收盘时有 51 只股票涨停，有 9 只股票跌停。昨日涨停 股票今日收盘收益为 1.58%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-4.00%。今日封 板率 58%，较前日下降 1%，连板率 25%，较前日提升 0%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250731 两融余额为 19848 亿元，其中融资余额 19710 亿元，融券余额 138 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 10.5%。 折溢价：20250731 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是油气资源 ETF，ETF ...

本周，中证消费电子主题指数下跌0.5%，中证物联网主题指数下跌0.7%，国证机器人产业指数下跌2.3%，中证智能电动汽 车指数下跌4.5%。据Wind数据，截至昨日，机器人ETF易方达（159530）本周合计获1.3亿元净流入，净流入额居全市场机 器人ETF第一。 昨日，IDC发布全球与中国机器人市场规模预测，预计2029年全球机器人市场规模将突破4000亿美元，中国市场占近半份 额。2024年，全球商用服务机器人出货量破10万台，中国厂商出货占比达84.7%。IDC指出，具身智能机器人是机器人智能 化发展的重要方向，可以满足多样化、复杂化的应用场景需求。 | | 国证机器 | 中证智能电 | 中证消费电 | 中证物联网 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 产业指数 | 动汽车指数 | 子主题指数 | 主题指数 | | 本周涨跌幅 | -2. 3% | -4. 5% | -0. 5% | -0. 7% | | | 滚动市销率 | 滚动市盘率 | 滚动市盘率 | 滚动市盘率 | | 指数估值 | 4.7倍 | 26.0倍 | 47.1倍 | 27.2倍 | | 指数估值 ...

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.37%, the ChiNext Index down 0.24%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.17% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 16,199 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,420 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - AI hardware themes generally retreated, with CPO and GPU sectors leading the decline; stablecoins, military industry, and semiconductor stocks also saw significant drops [1] - Conversely, AI applications, photovoltaic, innovative pharmaceuticals, and smart logistics sectors were active [1] ETF Highlights - The Guangfa Fund's Hang Seng Consumer ETF rose by 4.69% [1] - The photovoltaic sector showed strength, with Guangfa Fund's Photovoltaic ETF, Guotai Fund's Photovoltaic 50 ETF, and Huashan Fund's Photovoltaic ETF Index Fund increasing by 2.53%, 1.94%, and 1.94% respectively [1] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector was active, with Yinhua Fund's Traditional Chinese Medicine 50 ETF and Huitianfu Fund's Traditional Chinese Medicine ETF rising by 2.36% and 1.89% respectively [1] International Market Trends - Overnight oil prices declined, leading to a drop of over 5% in Sinopec's stock, and the oil and gas resource ETF fell by 4.18% [1] - The South Korean stock market also declined, with the South Korea Semiconductor ETF down 3.38% [1] - European stock markets closed at their lowest in over a week, with France's CAC40 ETF and Germany's ETF down 2.44% and 2.2% respectively [1] - U.S. stocks experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the U.S. 50 ETF and Nasdaq ETF both down by 2% [1] - Military stocks were among the biggest losers, with the aerospace and defense ETF down 2.31% [1]

行业日报 | 北交所 延续调整，关注 AI+、创新药持续性 北交所市场点评——20250731 核心结论 行情回顾：1）指数层面：7 月 31 日北证 A 股成交金额达 261.0 亿元，较上 一交易日减少 9.1 亿元，北证 50 指数收盘价为 1422.87，下跌 1.16%， PE_TTM 为 66.55 倍。北证专精特新指数收盘价为 2432.93，下跌 1.09%； 2）个股层面：当日北交所 269 家公司中 44 家上涨，2 家平盘，223 家 下跌。其中涨幅前五的个股分别为：鼎佳精密（479.1%）、广道数字（29.9%）、 方盛股份（15.1%）、美登科技（9.1%）、星昊医药（8.0%）；跌幅前五的 个股分别为：恒立钻具（-11.4%）、骑士乳业（-7.8%）、百甲科技（-7.5%）、 五新隧装（-7.2%）、中航泰达（-7.0%）。 新闻汇总：1）国常会：要深入实施"人工智能+"行动，大力推进人工智能规 模化商业化应用：会议审议通过《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》， 会议部署实施个人消费贷款贴息政策与服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策，以降低居 民信贷成本和服务业经营主体融资成本；2）脑机 ...

今天，对于A股市场而言，无疑是一场腥风血雨。沪指毫无征兆地跌破3600点，超过四千只股票泥沙俱 下，哀鸿遍野。然而，在这片惨淡的绿色海洋中，竟有42只股票逆势突围，强势涨停，宛如孤岛般醒 目。这究竟是一场崩盘式的溃败，还是一次优胜劣汰的大洗牌？ 黑色星期五：沪指失守3600点，一场资金乾坤大挪移？ 美联储"鹰"姿飒爽，全球市场风声鹤唳 这场暴跌的导火索，或许要追溯到昨夜美联储的会议。鲍威尔的讲话如同给全球投资者泼了一盆冰水， 直言通胀依旧顽固。一夜之间，华尔街对9月降息的预期从64%骤降至不足五成。 海外市场率先做出反应，纳斯达克金龙指数应声下跌近2%，跌势如拖泥带水般沉重。这股寒流迅速蔓 延至港股，恒生指数今日再度下挫1.58%，理想汽车等科技股首当其冲，领跌大盘。 政策的退潮效应，让市场措手不及。昨日政治局会议刚刚定调要巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头，一些嗅 觉灵敏的资金便开始悄悄获利了结。正如烟花散尽，观众退场，只留下一地残屑。 某券商自营盘交易员小陈一边在电脑上挂出卖单，一边感慨："政策礼花再美，终归有落灰的时候。"主 力资金出逃之坚决，从全天近800亿的净流出额便可见一斑。 AI硬件一枝独秀，难挽颓势 ...

Group 1: Metal Sector - China Hongqiao's net profit forecast for 2024 is CNY 223.72 billion, with a PE ratio of 8.14[12] - Hualing Steel's net profit is projected to increase from CNY 20.32 billion in 2024 to CNY 28.54 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 19.72[12] - Xiamen Tungsten's net profit is expected to rise from CNY 17.28 billion in 2024 to CNY 21.01 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 22.97[12] Group 2: Construction and Transportation - Sichuan Road and Bridge's net profit is forecasted to grow from CNY 72.10 billion in 2024 to CNY 82.86 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 10.35[12] - YTO Express's net profit is expected to decrease from CNY 40.12 billion in 2024 to CNY 35.39 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 13.03[12] - China Merchants Highway's net profit is projected to be CNY 55 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.56[12] Group 3: Chemical and Energy Sector - Yara International's net profit is expected to rise from CNY 9.50 billion in 2024 to CNY 17.94 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 30.56[12] - Funiu Power's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 28.95 billion, with a PE ratio of 9.18[12] - Huajin's net profit is projected to recover to CNY 0.92 billion in 2025 after a loss of CNY 27.95 billion in 2024[12] Group 4: Strategic Metals and New Materials - Xiamen Tungsten's strategic metal segments are expected to contribute 79% to profits in 2024, with a focus on tungsten and rare earths[21] - Zhongcai Technology's special glass fiber is projected to see significant demand growth due to AI hardware requirements, with expected profits of CNY 0.2 billion in 2024[30] - The company anticipates a profit contribution from special glass fiber of CNY 7.2 billion by 2026[30]

Group 1: Company Performance - Longchuan Technology achieved revenue of 2.167 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.8%, and net profit of 427 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.73%, exceeding the previous forecast range of 360 million to 420 million yuan [1] - Xiamen Tungsten's revenue for the first half of the year was approximately 7.534 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, with net profit of 307 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.76% [2][3] - West Mining reported revenue of 31.619 billion yuan and net profit of 1.869 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 27% and 15%, respectively, driven by an increase in copper production and prices [3] - Zhimin Technology's revenue reached 295 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.83%, and net profit surged to 38.3 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2147.93%, attributed to increased customer demand and order volume [4] Group 2: Industry Trends - The semiconductor and AI sectors, along with resource industries like rare earths and gold, are showing strong performance according to the statistics from over 1,570 listed companies [4] - The testing industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, with expectations for continued high growth in revenue driven by major customer demand and market expansion [1] - The demand for lithium cobalt and power battery materials is increasing, supported by national subsidy policies and enhanced AI functionalities in consumer electronics [2]

Group 1 - Juzi Technology Development Co., Ltd. submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 23, with Huifu Financing Co., Ltd. as the sole sponsor [1] - Luxshare Precision announced plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and governance transparency [2] Group 2 - The investigation into the water quality issues in Yuhang District revealed that the odor was caused by organic sulfur compounds due to environmental factors, including high temperatures and algal blooms [3][4] - The Yuhang Water Supply Company and related authorities took measures to switch water sources and flush pipelines to address the water quality issues, restoring normal supply by July 17 [3][4] - A total of seven officials were held accountable for the inadequate response to the water quality crisis, highlighting deficiencies in emergency response and monitoring systems [4] Group 3 - Sam's Club reintroduced Wei Long's konjac snacks on its app, indicating a shift back to popular products after consumer complaints about quality [6] - The high price of Coca-Cola at the Peace Hotel in Shanghai sparked public debate about pricing practices in the hospitality industry [5] Group 4 - Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced the dissolution of its Shanghai AI research institute due to strategic adjustments, emphasizing the need for resource optimization [15] - Volvo plans to reform its dealer management processes and introduce a "one-price" model to enhance customer service and streamline pricing [16] Group 5 - Pop Mart is suing 7-Eleven in the U.S. for selling counterfeit LABUBU toys, indicating ongoing issues with brand protection in international markets [16] - The upcoming wedding of Steve Jobs' daughter is expected to cost over $4.8 million, showcasing the intersection of celebrity and luxury events [16] Group 6 - Alibaba is set to launch its first self-developed AI glasses, marking a significant step in its AI consumer product strategy [24] - 360 Group plans to release two AI hardware products, including a smart recording pen and smart glasses, aimed at enhancing user experience in meetings and daily tasks [25] Group 7 - Momenta led a 500 million yuan financing round for Zero One Automotive, focusing on the development of new energy heavy trucks and autonomous driving technology [23] - The outdoor sports brand "SURPINE" completed a multi-million Pre-A financing round to enhance product development and market expansion [22]