有一些新手，往往有这个困惑：有的职业交易员，好像经常做错，经常止损，为什么收益那么高？ 同样，很多交易者，沉湎于各种技术指标的分析判断，试图找到最有效的进场点。他们往往看重和追求 的都是高胜率，他们可能花了很多精力，希望找到一种"绝世武功"，可以在期货市场无往而不胜。 也许在某一段行情中你以为可以成功，而这种所谓的成功很多时候回导致信心爆棚，加大仓量，最终往 往是被他自认为找到的"绝世武功"搞得"走火入魔"，在复杂的市场行情中反噬其身。 PART.01 没有人能保证自己一直保持"高胜率" 在期货交易中，胜率固然是非常重要的一环，如果你能有超高的胜率，那么你赚钱的几率自然就高。但 是，我们必须清醒地认识到：市场是复杂多变的，没有一个技术系统能保证永远适用。花太多精力在提 高胜率，可能见效甚微。因此期货交易者想成长，就必须走出片面"追求胜率"的误区。 1、"就专业交易员而言，其获利交易百分率经常低于40％"。 《高级技术分析》，作者Bruce：1975年就开始从事交易的市场老手，并在1976年就进入交易系统的研 究和设计领域，是美国一流的交易系统设计及运用专家。 2、"如果期货交易有20％的成功率，那他就非常走运 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The fundamental drivers for coking coal are limited, and it is expected to experience short - term low - level fluctuations. The supply side still faces significant pressure, while the current low - valuation of the futures market restricts downward movement but lacks upward drivers [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The coking coal main contract 2509 opened higher and closed lower today, with the closing price center continuing to rise. Domestic mine production is increasing, and imported coal resources are abundant. Although the downstream steel and coking enterprises'开工 has slightly increased, overseas resource prices are under pressure, and the supply side pressure is large. Considering the macro - risks and the current situation of the futures market, short - term coking coal should be treated with a fluctuating mindset [1]. Futures Market - The coking coal main contract JM2509 opened higher and then weakened, closing at 985.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 0.81%. The trading volume was 191,200 lots, and the open interest was 579,900 lots, an increase of 25,172 lots [3]. - For the coking coal 2505 contract, the top 20 long positions were 157,132 lots, an increase of 9,762 lots, and the top 20 short positions were 184,115 lots, an increase of 16,329 lots [5]. Spot Market - The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was quoted at 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Meng 5 main coking raw coal was 830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. Basis - The futures closing price of the main contract was 908 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 232 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. Supply - From April 4th to April 10th, the operating rate of 523 domestic sample coking coal mines was 87.16%, a month - on - month increase of 0.84 percentage points. The daily average output of clean coking coal was 782,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,800 tons. On April 5th, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 181,035 tons, a daily increase of 63,990 tons [7]. Demand - From April 4th to April 10th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 648,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 474,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2,402,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,900 tons [10].

【冠通研究】 今日焦煤主力低开后偏强震荡，收盘价格重心略有上移。国内矿山复产加快，产 量继续抬升；蒙煤通关车辆回升，进口煤资源充足，口岸库存高位运行。下游钢 焦企业开工小幅回升；国内焦煤竞拍价格上涨，出货好转，但是海外资源价格仍 承压，蒙煤二季度长协价下调。美国加征关税影响我国从美进口煤炭，但其他替 代资源充足，供给端压力仍较大。近期贸易冲突加剧黑色系波动，短期看盘面受 宏观风险影响仍较大，但焦煤估值偏低，亦缺乏上涨驱动，短期低位震荡思路对 待。 【策略分析】 短期低位震荡，上下空间有限 【期货行情】 期货方面：焦煤主力 JM2505 合约低开后偏强震荡，最终收盘于 905.5 元/吨， +7.5 元/吨，涨跌幅+0.84%。成交量 19.22 万手，持仓 18.71 万手，-23382 手， 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 焦煤 2505 小时 K 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 短期低位震荡，上下空间有限 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 14 日 2 数据来源:钢联，冠通期货 需求方面：4 月 4 日-4 月 10 日当周，下游独立焦企日均产量 64. ...

【冠通研究】 基本面偏弱，盘面宽幅震荡 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 11 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约高开高走震荡收涨，今日期市较本周相对波动幅度稳定。上游 工厂报价小幅上扬，前期降价后近日出货较顺畅，部分工厂预收订单增加，受期 货价格飘红影响，交投氛围良好。供给端，本周日产环比下降，春季多发临检， 但前期检修企业也有复产，日产稳定为主，华锦、渭河等有检修计划，天庆田原 等本周复产。需求端，下游情绪尚好，成交有所好转。目前接货以复合肥工厂为 主，但工厂原料价格近日下降，利润回暖，企业成品库存增加，工厂开工负荷降 低，春季肥已达尾声，夏季肥进展有限，预计本月开工负荷继续走低。稻农需备 肥零星跟进，下一轮集中备肥系 6 月左右农需备肥。本期上游工厂出现累库，系 清明假期期间下游接货力度不足，但也表现出下游需求整体不足，工厂出现累库。 整体来说，尿素基本面依然偏弱，盘面小幅上涨，但弹性预计不足，需求端环比 走弱，盘面宽幅震荡为主，05 合约关注 1780-1900 元/吨区间宽幅震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2505 合约 1855 元/吨高开低走，盘面震荡收涨，最终 收于 1870 元/吨，收成 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 11 日星期五 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 父易俗询贷俗: 200192 | | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格上涨 4 元/吨至 2397 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 | | | | | 价格上涨 55 元/吨至 2520 元/吨。多头持仓减少 25484 手至 28.05 万手，空头持仓 | | | | | 减少 24959 手至 29.29 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 88.24%，环比上涨 3.5%。海外甲醇开工率 75.09%， | | | | | 环比上涨 2.34%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 56.98 万吨，较上一期数据减少 4.63 ...

上期所原油期货2405合约夜盘收跌2.93%，报467.60元人民币/桶。 沪金夜盘收涨0.58%，沪银收涨0.39%。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: Iran's methanol shipments are low, and there is not enough time until the 05 contract. It is currently expected that inventory will decline to a seasonal low by the end of April. Be vigilant if Iran's subsequent shipments still fall short of expectations. Assuming normal imports and Shenghong's shutdown in May, inventory will accumulate. However, the low inventory at the end of April will still influence trading. If there is an unexpected supply gap in the 05 contract, the low - inventory situation will continue, providing a safety margin for long positions [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream inventory increased during the holiday, and coal - chemical inventory also rose. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 05 contract basis is +300 in North China and +300 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production increased month - on - month in February. Pay attention to US price quotes and the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [1]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina and the mid - stream inventory increased during the holiday. In terms of valuation, the basis is +10, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. There are no reports of large - scale export transactions. The non - standard price differential is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. PDH profit is around - 600, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The draw production ratio is neutral. There are few known maintenance plans in the future, and supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, with neutral raw material inventory and slightly high finished - product inventory. Under the background of over - capacity, the 05 contract is expected to face significant pressure. To relieve the pressure, there needs to be a significant increase in exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million tons of PDH plants [1]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened to 05 - 230, and the factory - pickup basis is - 430. Downstream operations are seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventory has started to decline. With concentrated spring maintenance, the operating rate is expected to reach 75% temporarily. In the second quarter, pay attention to the scale of spring maintenance after profit compression. Export orders are fair. The macro - policies in March did not exceed expectations. Coal prices are stable, the cost of semi - coke is weakening, and it may be difficult for calcium carbide to expand profits as PVC plants undergo maintenance. The FOB price for caustic soda exports is 440. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 300. Currently, the static inventory is at a high level, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [1]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From March 31 to April 7, the price of power coal futures remained at 801, while the Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2612 to 2505, and the daily change on April 7 was - 75. Other regional spot prices also showed varying degrees of decline. The CFR China price remained at 283 on April 7, with a daily change of 0. The import profit was 116, and the daily change was 0. The main - contract basis was 95, with a daily change of 10, and the MTO profit on the futures market was - 1031, with a daily change of 83 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From March 31 to April 7, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene dropped from 855 to 845, with a daily change of - 10. The price of North China LL dropped from 7700 to 7550, with a daily change of - 150. The main - contract futures price dropped from 7669 to 7320, with a daily change of - 370. The basis was 100, with a daily change of 70. The two - oil inventory remained at 76, and the number of warehouse receipts was 450, with no daily change [1]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From March 31 to April 7, the price of Shandong propylene dropped from 6600 to 6600 (with a decline during the period), and the daily change on April 7 was - 150. The price of Northeast Asia propylene dropped from 800 to 790, with a daily change of - 10. The price of East China PP dropped from 7300 to 7255, with a daily change of - 80. The main - contract futures price dropped from 7313 to 7197, with a daily change of - 151. The basis was 30, with a daily change of 50. The two - oil inventory remained at 76, and the number of warehouse receipts was 1950, with no daily change [1]. PVC - **Price Data**: From March 31 to April 7, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2700, and the price of Shandong caustic soda dropped from 897 to 856, with a daily change of - 20. The price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China dropped from 4980 to 4900, with a daily change of - 110. The basis of high - end deliverable products was - 120, with a daily change of 40 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the main contract roll - over node, be vigilant about large - scale fluctuations in soda ash and glass prices [1] - Soda ash supply has recovered, and the inventory accumulation rate has increased. Glass production and sales are okay, but terminal demand is poor, and market sentiment is cautious [4][57] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Price - On April 3, 2025, the 2504, 2505, and 2509 futures contracts of soda ash were priced at 1389, 1381, and 1420 respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 1, - 12, and - 19. The spot prices of heavy soda ash in different regions also showed some fluctuations [6] - The main contract basis was - 10 [6] Supply - The overall capacity utilization rate increased from 82.38% to 85.09%. The weekly output increased from 69.02 million tons to 71.30 million tons, a rise of 3.30%. The heavy - soda production increased by 5.45%, and the light - soda production increased by 0.84% [7] - Many enterprises had device maintenance. For example, Shandong Haitian started maintenance on October 21, 2024, and the end time was undetermined [25] Demand - The daily output of float glass increased slightly by 0.13%, and the daily output of photovoltaic glass increased by 1.75%. The apparent demand for light - soda decreased by 4.33% [7] Inventory - The total inventory of soda ash increased by 4.38% to 170.14 million tons. The heavy - soda inventory increased by 7.54%, and the light - soda inventory increased by 1.42%. The social inventory decreased by 2.81% [7] Profit - The profit of the dual - alkali method decreased by 13.00% to 184.1, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method decreased by 95.00% to - 101.81 [7] Glass Price - On April 3, 2025, the 2504, 2505, and 2509 futures contracts of glass were priced at 1198, 1198, and 1226 respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 8, 1, and - 24. The main contract basis was - 38 [55] Supply - The capacity utilization rate was 75.42%, with a slight decrease of 0.2429. The daily output increased from 15.83 million tons to 15.85 million tons, and the weekly output increased from 110.83 million tons to 110.88 million tons [56] Demand - The apparent demand remained unchanged. Due to some regional sentiment, policy superposition, and price advantages of some enterprises, the downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, and the sales of some enterprises improved [56] Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2% to 6575.7 million heavy boxes, and the inventory of Shahe traders decreased by 9% to 420 million heavy boxes [56] Profit - The profit of natural - gas production increased by 4%, the profit of coal - gas production increased by 14%, and the profit of petroleum - coke production increased by - 123% [56] Potential Factors Soda Ash - Potential positive factors: Macroeconomic policies and commodity market sentiment boost, unexpected device maintenance or load reduction, and energy - consumption policies [8] - Potential negative factors: Significant inventory accumulation in soda - ash plants, unexpected cold - repair of float and photovoltaic glass, and new production devices coming into operation [8] Glass - Potential positive factors: Macroeconomic policies boost the commodity market sentiment, and demand shows seasonal improvement [57] - Potential negative factors: The demand in the "Golden March and Silver April" period falls short of expectations [57] Market Outlook Soda Ash - The supply is expected to increase steadily, which will put some pressure on prices. The soda - ash plants will face the pressure of high - level inventory accumulation [7][8] Glass - The supply will remain stable, and the downstream will enter the digestion stage after this round of replenishment. The sustainability of mid - stream inventory replenishment needs further tracking [57]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in oil prices due to the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with WTI crude oil falling below $70 and Brent crude experiencing significant drops [1]. Market Sentiment - There is a strong bearish sentiment in the market, with some analysts predicting a potential shift towards a short-selling trend in oil [2]. - Domestic investors cannot directly invest in foreign oil but can focus on domestic futures like SC crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, which have also weakened alongside international oil prices [2]. Futures Trading Apps Overview - The article reviews five futures trading applications that are beneficial for investors in the current market environment [3]. 1. Sina Finance App - Offers comprehensive global market coverage and real-time data updates, particularly for Brent crude oil and other international commodities [4]. - Integrates financial news and market analysis, helping users capture event-driven trading opportunities [4]. - Provides regular market analysis reports and live courses for mid to long-term investors [4]. 2. Tonghuashun Futures - A versatile platform catering to both novice and experienced investors, supporting real-time data and trading across major domestic futures exchanges [9]. - Features smart analysis tools and community interaction for strategy sharing [10]. 3. Wenhua Finance - Known for its professional-level quantitative trading support, allowing users to automate complex strategies [11][12]. - Offers mobile functionality for seamless trading and data synchronization [13]. 4. Jinshi Data - Focuses on news-driven trading with real-time alerts for key financial events, aiding investors in preemptive positioning [15]. - Provides visual data representation and sentiment indicators to assist in trend analysis [16]. 5. Dongfang Caifu Futures - Creates a community-driven investment ecosystem, integrating news, trading, and social interaction [18]. - Covers a wide range of global markets and facilitates cross-market arbitrage analysis [19].