证券研究报告·公司点评报告·光伏设备 钧达股份（002865） 2025 年业绩预告点评：业绩阶段性亏损，加 快布局新增长点 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 18,657 | 9,952 | 9,318 | 14,627 | 19,215 | | 同比（%） | 60.90 | (46.66) | (6.37) | 56.97 | 31.37 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 815.64 | (591.11) | (1,272.02) | 471.07 | 1,043.17 | | 同比（%） | 13.77 | (172.47) | (115.19) | 137.03 | 121.45 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.79 | (2.02) | (4.35) | 1.61 | 3.57 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 30.22 | (41.70) | (19.38) | 5 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the electric power industry, specifically the initiatives and investments by the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) to enhance the electric grid infrastructure and support renewable energy projects [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Plans**: In 2026, SGCC plans to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets, a significant increase from 2.85 trillion yuan during the previous five-year period, marking a new phase of high-intensity construction aimed at building a new power system to adapt to renewable energy and carbon neutrality goals [2]. - **Strengthening the Grid Platform**: SGCC aims to enhance the grid platform by focusing on UHV (Ultra High Voltage) construction to support the development of wind and solar resources in the western regions and hydropower projects in the southwest. Key equipment such as transformers, GIS (Gas Insulated Switchgear), and converters will see increased demand, benefiting companies like Pinggao Electric, China XD Electric, and XJ Electric [1][4]. - **Improving Regulation Capabilities**: SGCC is investing in virtual power plants, energy storage technologies, and digital upgrades of distribution networks, with a focus on smart terminals and automated distribution systems. Companies like Dongfang Electronics and Sifang Co. are expected to benefit from these investments [1][5]. - **Technological Empowerment**: The company is actively investing in technologies such as drone inspections and AI applications to enhance operational capabilities. Companies like Dongfang Electronics and Sifang Co. are positioned to benefit from these technological advancements [1][6][7]. - **Electric IT and Software Development**: A robust software platform is essential for digital transformation in areas like scheduling, marketing, and asset management. Companies like State Grid Information and Yuanguang Software are expected to benefit from these developments [1][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Market Opportunities**: There is a strong demand for electric equipment globally, particularly in North America and Southeast Asia, which presents significant growth opportunities for Chinese companies. The focus should be on capturing new cyclical development opportunities in these markets [3][9]. - **Space Photovoltaics Investment Logic**: The investment logic in space photovoltaics includes reduced launch costs due to commercial space advancements, increased power output per satellite, and the application of new technologies. Companies like Junda and Dongfang Risheng are leading in this field [3][10][11]. - **AIDC Power Trends**: The tightening of power supply in North America has led to increased electricity prices, driven by the demand from data centers. This trend is expected to continue, providing growth opportunities for Chinese power supply companies entering the North American market [3][12]. - **Investment Themes**: Current market themes include space photovoltaics, AIDC power, and solid-state batteries, which have clear long-term demand and investment value. The recent electric grid investment plans are likely to boost related equipment markets in the short term [3][13].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The global energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth, with an expected new installed capacity of 233 GWh by 2026 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 37% over the next three years. Independent storage accounts for approximately 78% of this capacity, primarily located in Ningxia and Shanxi [1][8][9]. - North America’s AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) storage demand is projected to surge from 8.9 GWh in 2025 to 190 GWh by 2030, with a remarkable CAGR of 84%. The green electricity direct connection model is favored for its quick delivery and economic benefits [1][12]. - The European energy storage market is driven by both large-scale and commercial storage, with an anticipated overall installed capacity of 29.7 GWh by 2025, representing a 30% year-on-year increase, and expected to reach 118 GWh by 2029 [1][13]. - Domestic grid investment is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan annually, while international investment is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan. The acceleration of ultra-high voltage projects in 2026 will enhance the main distribution network's performance [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The preferred investment order in the wind, solar, storage, and grid sectors is: storage, grid, wind, and solar. Storage is primarily driven by strong domestic and international policies and market demand [2]. - Large-scale storage is identified as a core growth area, with significant projects expected to materialize in North America and Europe within the next 3-5 years [2]. Key Developments in Specific Sectors Energy Storage - The internal rate of return (IRR) for independent storage remains attractive, with a projected IRR of 18% under standard assumptions [1][9]. - The demand for commercial and industrial storage is shifting from traditional pricing arbitrage to a multi-revenue model, including spot market trading and capacity compensation [10]. Wind Power - The wind power industry is expected to maintain a favorable competitive landscape, with a continued trend of rising volume and price in 2026. Both offshore and overseas wind power markets present significant opportunities [1][6]. - The global wind power sector is projected to grow at a CAGR of 27% from 2025 to 2030, with China and Europe leading the way [18]. Solar Power - The solar industry is focusing on countering internal competition and the impact of rising component prices, with some prices reaching 0.8 yuan per watt. Technological breakthroughs such as perovskite and reduced silver usage are expected to accelerate cost reductions [4][7]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates in April 2026 is anticipated to increase export costs for companies, potentially reducing internal competition among Chinese firms [22]. Emerging Markets and Global Trends - Emerging markets, particularly in Australia, are receiving policy support for renewable energy and storage, with a target of 82% renewable energy by 2030 [15]. - Chinese companies are accelerating their international expansion, with expected shipments of energy storage systems reaching 400 GWh by 2025, a 60% increase year-on-year [16]. Conclusion - The energy sector is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements, favorable policies, and increasing demand across various markets. Key players in storage, wind, and solar sectors are recommended for investment consideration, particularly those with strong international expansion strategies.

Summary of Conference Call on Company and Industry Insights Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focused on the laser equipment industry, particularly the advancements in photovoltaic (PV) technology and semiconductor equipment, with a specific emphasis on the company 帝尔激光 (Dier Laser) [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Increase in Single GW Value**: The single GW value has increased from 50 million/GW to at least 70-80 million/GW. This enhancement is attributed to: 1. New crystallization equipment contributing over 10 million per GW. 2. Anticipated bulk orders for metallization processes, including electroplating and copper paste sintering this year. 3. Layout of two welding routes for full plate welding and conductive backplane interconnection, with mass production orders expected to materialize by the first half of 2026 [1]. - **Space Photovoltaics**: 1. HJT (Heterojunction Technology) is being developed with laser transfer printing, induced repair, and sintering, all of which are mature mass production processes. The single GW value can reach 50 million/GW. 2. Perovskite technology is being explored with laser grooving and slicing, achieving a single GW value in the tens of millions [1]. - **Innovative Equipment and Multi-functional Devices**: The company is set to receive orders from leading customers in Jiangsu and is also in discussions with clients in Beijing regarding innovative equipment and processes [2]. - **Adaptation to Thin Silicon and Flexible Components**: Full plate welding and conductive backplane interconnection are naturally suited for ultra-thin silicon wafers and flexible components. Laser technology remains the core of all battery technology routes, with a high upper limit for single GW value this year marking a year of new laser technologies [3]. - **Semiconductor Product Layout**: The company aims for non-PV orders to reach 1 billion in 2026. The target for TGV (Through Glass Via) orders this year is over a hundred units. PCB (Printed Circuit Board) prototypes are expected to be delivered in February for validation [3]. - **Advanced Semiconductor Packaging**: The use of laser technology for advanced packaging, such as laser transfer printing for ball placement (tin ball dot printing) and laser drilling for optical fiber arrays in AFU (Active Fiber Unit) modules, is highlighted [4]. - **Dual-Drive Strategy**: The combination of photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors is driving growth, with space photovoltaics opening new opportunities for the company [4]. Other Important Insights - The emphasis on laser technology across various applications indicates a strategic focus on innovation and efficiency in production processes. - The anticipated growth in both the photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors suggests a robust market outlook for the company, positioning it well for future developments and potential investment opportunities [1][3][4].

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company, highlighting its leadership in photovoltaic encapsulation technology and its exploration of new solutions for space photovoltaic applications, with a recommendation to "maintain buy" rating [2][4][6]. Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the photovoltaic encapsulation materials sector, holding a market share of approximately 50% in the photovoltaic film auxiliary materials field [4]. - It offers a diverse range of products including UVB films, light conversion films, high-reflective black films, ultra-high reflective white films, high barrier edge sealing adhesives, PIB films, and high-reflective back sheets, aimed at providing cost-effective encapsulation solutions for emerging technologies like TOPCon, HJT, thin-film batteries, and perovskite cells [4]. Technological Advancements - The company possesses advanced encapsulation technology that meets the requirements for space photovoltaic applications, particularly in terms of radiation resistance [5]. - It is actively developing new materials that combine various properties to meet the unique demands of space environments, leveraging its existing expertise in PI materials and PET materials [5]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share of 0.39, 0.74, and 0.99 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 38.8, 20.7, and 15.4 times [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Trina Solar's forecast for 2025, indicating that despite maintaining industry leadership in photovoltaic products and solutions, the company anticipates a decline in profitability due to rising raw material costs and market competition [1] - Trina Solar's energy storage business has seen rapid growth in overseas markets, significantly increasing its market share, and the company plans to introduce innovative technologies into the commercial aerospace sector to create new profit growth points [1] - The company has made significant advancements in space photovoltaic technology, focusing on three main directions: crystalline silicon batteries (HJT, etc.), perovskite tandem batteries, and III-V arsenide multi-junction batteries, achieving leading research results [2] Group 2 - Trina Solar has developed the industry's first large-area P-type HJT/perovskite tandem battery with an efficiency of 31.5%, maintaining world records in various battery technologies [3] - The company is actively collaborating with leading clients in Europe and the U.S., as well as domestic research institutions and commercial aerospace companies, to expand its market presence and has initiated the construction of a supporting supply chain [3] - The company is focusing on perovskite-silicon tandem batteries as the primary direction for future space photovoltaic applications, catering to different product demands across various orbital levels [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][5] Core Views - The company is a leader in photovoltaic encapsulation materials, maintaining a market share of approximately 50% in the photovoltaic film auxiliary materials sector. It offers a range of products including UVB films, light conversion films, and high-reflective back sheets, aimed at providing cost-effective encapsulation solutions for new technologies such as TOPCon and HJT [8] - The company is actively exploring new solutions for space photovoltaic applications, leveraging its existing technology in UV cutoff and conversion, as well as its proprietary PI material technology, which has already been commercialized in electronic materials [8] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 18,622 million, with a growth rate of -2.7%. By 2026, revenue is expected to increase to RMB 23,536 million, reflecting a growth rate of 26.4% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is RMB 1,029 million, with a significant rebound expected in 2026 to RMB 1,930 million, representing a growth rate of 87.6% [7] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 0.39, with an increase to RMB 0.74 in 2026 and RMB 0.99 in 2027 [5][7] - The company maintains a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 38.8 for 2025, which is expected to decrease to 20.7 in 2026 and further to 15.4 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [5][7] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown an absolute return of 9.7% year-to-date, with a relative performance of 7.4% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" and the rating has been maintained [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability pressure in the photovoltaic equipment sector remains significant, but there are signs of operational improvement [3][8]. - The commercial aerospace industry is experiencing a trend that is expected to benefit space photovoltaic technologies, driven by increased satellite launches and technological advancements [5][7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for new photovoltaic technologies, such as HJT and perovskite solar cells, to gain traction in the commercial aerospace sector [8]. Summary by Sections - **Industry Performance**: The photovoltaic equipment sector has shown a 12.22% increase over 1 month, 14.66% over 3 months, and 44.01% over 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [6]. - **Commercial Aerospace Developments**: China has submitted applications for 203,000 satellites, marking the largest frequency and orbital resource application to date, which is expected to activate the entire satellite manufacturing, launching, and operation industry chain [7]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on equipment manufacturers, material suppliers, and producers with strong technological reserves in the context of accelerating commercialization in the aerospace industry [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][5] Core Views - The company is a leader in photovoltaic encapsulation materials, maintaining a market share of approximately 50% in the photovoltaic film auxiliary materials sector. It offers a range of products including UVB films, light conversion films, and high-reflective back sheets, aimed at providing cost-effective encapsulation solutions for new technologies such as TOPCon and HJT [8] - The company is actively exploring new solutions for space photovoltaic applications, leveraging its existing technology in UV cutoff and conversion, as well as its proprietary PI material technology, which may play a significant role in future space photovoltaic projects [8] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from RMB 22,589 million in 2023 to RMB 27,672 million in 2027, with a notable increase of 26.4% in 2026 [7] - The projected net profit is expected to rise from RMB 1,850 million in 2023 to RMB 2,592 million in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 87.6% in 2026 [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 0.71 in 2023 to RMB 0.99 in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 34.3% in 2026 [7] - The company maintains a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 38.8 for 2025, decreasing to 15.4 by 2027, indicating a potential for valuation improvement [5][10] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown an absolute return of 9.7% year-to-date and a relative return of 7.4% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - The average trading volume over the past three months is RMB 370.03 million, with a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 39,965.88 million [2]

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace Industry - The commercial aerospace industry is on an upward trend, with a positive outlook for future market performance[5] - Key focus areas include stable or potentially increasing value in manufacturing and launch sectors, as well as communication terminal components like baseband and RF chips[22] - Significant growth expected in satellite constellations, with G60 planning to launch 1,296 satellites by the end of 2027 and 15,000 by 2030, while GW plans to launch an average of 1,800 satellites annually post-2030[18] Group 2: Space Photovoltaic Equipment - New technologies such as heterojunction and perovskite are accelerating advancements in space photovoltaic applications, providing new demand scenarios[37] - The global supply landscape may change due to emerging applications, creating new incremental demand for equipment companies[37] - P-type HJT batteries are identified as the optimal choice for space photovoltaic technology due to their lightweight, high power density, and resistance to extreme environments[30] Group 3: Wind Power Sector - Goldwind Technology is a leading global wind power manufacturer, with a projected revenue of CNY 566.99 billion in 2024, reflecting a 12.37% year-on-year growth[49] - Taisheng Wind Power is expanding into commercial aerospace, with plans to start rocket storage tank production by mid-2026[54] Group 4: AI and AR Glasses - Meta's AI glasses are expected to double production capacity, driving market growth and enhancing consumer demand for high-end optical products[5]