2026年3月1日 证券研究报告 | 太空光伏研究专题 逐梦航天，太空光伏技术与市场前景展望 行业研究 · 行业专题 太空光伏 · 价值分析 投资评级：优于大市 证券分析师：王蔚祺 证券分析师：李恒源 证券分析师：袁阳 010-88005313 021-60875174 0755-22940078 S0980520080003 S0980520080009 S0980524030002 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn lihengyuan@guosen.com.cn yuanyang2@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容一、太空光伏市场前景分析 太空光伏发展现状与前景综述 图1：太空光伏与地面电站光伏（硅基）市场比较 | 2025年 | 太空光伏（砷化镓） | 地面光伏（晶硅） | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年销售单价 | 900-1500元/w | 0.7-1.2元/w | | 2025年新增容量 | 约9-10MW | 620 GW* | | 2025年市场规模 | 80-90 亿元 | 4200-4640 亿元 | | | ...

证券研究报告 商业航天规模化在即， 太空光伏打开成长空间 ——商业航天&太空光伏系列深度（一） 行业投资评级：强于大市|维持 中邮证券研究所 电新团队 中邮证券 1 1 发布时间：2026-02-24 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 卫星需求拉动太空光伏市场空间：卫星互联网应用场景打开+战略布局+太空算力，低轨卫星需求将 快速提升。太空光伏是卫星能源供应唯一供给方案，受益于卫星数量+单星功率提升。 太阳翼向柔性演进：单星功率提升要求太阳翼向轻量化、柔性化发展。 技术路线迭代带来新机遇：砷化镓-HJT-钙钛矿叠层演进。（1）砷化镓为目前主流技术路线，可靠性 高但成本高昂。（2）p-HJT方案依托于成熟的晶硅产业，较砷化镓方案大幅降本，且异质结作为向钙钛 矿叠层方案发展的基础，预计在短中期有较大发展空间。（3）钙钛矿叠层方案目前仍处于起步研究阶段， 存在光照或高温环境下稳定性不足、寿命短等问题亟待突破，随技术成熟产能增加叠加降本，预计中长期 将有较大发展空间。 投资建议：建议关注迈为股份、东方日升、钧达股份。 风险提示：商业火箭发射降本、卫星发射频次不及预期，技术迭代、产业落地不及预期，国际技术标准 与规则竞争 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company Involved**: XunTian QianHe Space Technology Co., Ltd. (寻天千禾) - **Parent Company**: JunDa Co., Ltd. (君达股份) has become the major shareholder with a 60% stake in XunTian QianHe, indicating a strategic partnership aimed at enhancing the commercial satellite sector in China [1][16]. Core Insights and Arguments XunTian QianHe's Position and Strategy - **Leadership in Commercial Space**: XunTian QianHe positions itself as a leader in China's commercial space sector, focusing on high-value commercial satellites. The team has experience in the development and launch of nearly 100 satellites [2][6]. - **Self-Developed Products**: Approximately 70% of the satellite platform products are self-developed, showcasing a strong vertical integration within the industry [2][7]. - **Policy Support**: The company benefits from recent government policies aimed at accelerating the development of commercial space, including the establishment of a dedicated Commercial Space Administration [3][4]. Market Dynamics - **Competitive Landscape**: The near-Earth orbit resources are highly competitive, with a "first come, first served" principle for frequency resources. China aims to catch up with the U.S., which has a significant lead in satellite launches [3][5]. - **Launch Goals**: XunTian QianHe aims to complete the launch of 1,300 satellites by 2029 and 15,000 satellites by 2030, indicating a robust growth trajectory in satellite deployment [5][14]. Technological Capabilities - **Satellite Types**: The company focuses on various satellite types, including communication, remote sensing, navigation, and computing satellites, with a strong emphasis on integrating advanced technologies [10][12]. - **Innovative Solutions**: XunTian QianHe is developing cutting-edge technologies, such as AI-enabled satellites for on-orbit target extraction and advanced meteorological payloads [12][13]. JunDa's Strategic Vision - **Investment in XunTian QianHe**: JunDa's investment is aimed at leveraging XunTian QianHe’s technological strengths and market position to become one of the top three commercial satellite companies in China [16][18]. - **Market Opportunities**: JunDa identifies significant market opportunities in remote sensing, communication, and computing satellites, particularly as launch costs decrease and demand for satellite services increases [19][21][22]. Additional Important Insights - **Collaboration and Partnerships**: JunDa plans to collaborate with various stakeholders, including government entities and major corporations, to enhance the operational capabilities and market reach of XunTian QianHe [24][25]. - **Global Market Expansion**: There is a strategic focus on expanding into overseas markets, particularly in regions like the Middle East and Southeast Asia, to establish a localized service system [25][26]. - **Technological Leadership**: JunDa emphasizes its technological leadership in space energy solutions, particularly in solar power technologies for satellites, which could become a standard solution in the industry [27][28]. Conclusion The conference highlighted the strategic partnership between JunDa and XunTian QianHe, focusing on leveraging technological capabilities and market opportunities in the rapidly evolving commercial satellite industry in China. The emphasis on self-developed products, government support, and ambitious launch goals positions both companies for significant growth in the coming years.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The controlling shareholder of Shanghai Fuyou Xinghe Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. has changed to Jun Da Co., which holds 60% of the shares. Shanghai Xuntian Qianhe Space Technology Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Fuyou Xinghe [2][5]. - Xuntian Qianhe is a leading satellite manufacturer in China, located in the G60 Space Internet Industry Base in Songjiang District, Shanghai. The company focuses on high-quality commercial satellites through independent research and technological innovation [12]. - The company has a strong technical team with nearly a hundred commercial satellite development experiences and has developed six satellite platforms covering micro and small satellites from 10kg to 1000kg [12]. - Jun Da Co. has completed its H-share placement, raising a net amount of HKD 398 million, with 45% allocated for the research and production of space photovoltaic battery products, 45% for equity investment and cooperation in the commercial aerospace sector, and 10% for working capital [12]. - The company aims to solidify its position in the remote sensing satellite market, enhance data accuracy and timeliness, and expand into the communication satellite field [12]. Financial Data Summary - Current stock price is 97.83 CNY, with a total share capital of 31,127 million shares and a circulating A-share of 22,487 million shares [7]. - The projected total revenue for 2026 is 10,805 million CNY, with a net profit forecast of 488 million CNY [16]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 1,034 million CNY by 2027, with an EPS of 3.32 CNY [16].

Group 1 - Duan Yongping sold 1.5 million shares of China Shenhua H-shares and bought 77,194 shares of Kweichow Moutai, with a total investment of approximately 1 billion yuan. The stock price of Kweichow Moutai increased by over 12% in the last five trading days, leading to a floating profit of over 10 million yuan for Duan [2] - On February 4, the A-share market showed a strong upward trend, with resource-related ETFs such as coal, energy, and gold leading the gains. The coal ETF rose over 9% due to increased energy demand caused by a cold wave [2] - The U.S. and Iran are set to negotiate a potential nuclear agreement, which has led to increased volatility in the commodity markets, with silver prices rising over 4% and Brent crude oil increasing by over 0.5% [2] Group 2 - Nintendo's stock price fell nearly 11%, resulting in a market value loss of approximately 64 billion yuan. The disappointing Q4 2025 financial report was impacted by U.S. tariffs on the Switch 2 gaming console and rising memory chip prices [3] - Ruixin Technology announced a major asset restructuring plan involving the acquisition of Wuhu Deheng Automotive Equipment Co., which is expected to constitute a significant asset restructuring [3] - Changguang Huaxin denied rumors of a 4.5 billion yuan strategic investment from Huawei, labeling the information as false and misleading [3] Group 3 - The space photovoltaic concept stocks surged in the A-share market, following Elon Musk's announcement of acquiring xAI and plans for collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla to expand solar energy production [5] - Various regions are actively laying out plans for the commercial aerospace industry, with 2026 being viewed as a significant year for this sector. The focus is on "full-chain" and "industrial clusters" to address existing challenges in China's commercial aerospace industry [5]

Group 1: Investment Trends - Net purchases included Tencent Holdings at 2.231 billion, Alibaba-W at 1.171 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W at 0.765 billion [1] - Southbound funds have continuously net bought Xiaomi for 5 days, totaling 2.92981 billion HKD, and Tencent for 3 days, totaling 5.49 billion HKD [4] - Net sales included SMIC at 0.706 billion and Hua Hong Semiconductor at 0.235 billion [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Tencent Holdings announced the optimization of its red envelope sharing mechanism, now referred to as "password red envelope" [5] - Alibaba has open-sourced a new efficient hybrid expert model, Qwen3-Coder-Next, with a total of 80 billion parameters [5] - China Mobile expects net profit to be under pressure due to an increase in value-added tax rates, focusing on operational efficiency and transitioning to AI and cloud services [5] Group 3: Corporate Expansion - Pop Mart announced London as its European headquarters and plans to open 7 new stores in the UK, creating over 150 jobs [6] - Junda Co. has initiated a placement to fund research and production of space photovoltaic battery products and investments in commercial aerospace [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with coal and space photovoltaic concepts showing significant activity. However, the rebound in coal stocks is primarily a result of overselling, while the space photovoltaic sector may have more sustainable growth due to ongoing positive developments and performance reversals [1][2][10]. Group 1: Coal Sector Analysis - The coal sector saw a notable increase, with indices such as the central enterprise coal index rising by 6.23% and the coal mining selection index by 5.93% [3][11]. - Despite the surge, 19 out of 27 companies in the coal industry have projected a decline in performance for 2025, indicating a lack of fundamental support for the rebound [2][11]. - The operational strategy for coal stocks should be closely monitored, particularly in relation to the performance forecasts for the first quarter of 2026 [2][11]. Group 2: Space Photovoltaic Sector Analysis - The space photovoltaic sector is showing stronger fundamentals, with nearly 50% of companies in the photovoltaic equipment industry expected to achieve performance growth by 2025, a significant increase compared to previous years [2][12]. - Notable stocks in the space photovoltaic sector include Zhonglai Co. and Zerun New Energy, which have reached "20CM" and "10CM" daily limits, respectively, indicating strong market interest [2][12]. - The space photovoltaic index has also shown a year-to-date increase of 31.04%, reflecting robust investor sentiment [3][12]. Group 3: Technological Developments in Space Photovoltaics - Space photovoltaic cells are categorized into three main types: gallium arsenide, crystalline silicon, and perovskite cells, each with distinct advantages and challenges [5][15]. - The efficiency of gallium arsenide cells is high but comes with a high cost, while perovskite cells offer flexibility and low theoretical costs but face stability issues [5][15]. - Crystalline silicon cells, although less efficient, are currently the most cost-effective option and are gradually replacing gallium arsenide in low-cost satellite applications [5][15]. Group 4: Company Developments and Performance Forecasts - Companies like Canadian Solar (阿特斯) are actively developing technologies related to space photovoltaics, including HJT technology and perovskite/HJT tandem cells, achieving significant advancements in efficiency [16][17]. - The company has reported a research and development efficiency exceeding 27.6% and a mass production efficiency of over 27.30%, positioning it at the forefront of the industry [16][17]. - Five companies are projected to see their performance double by 2025, with the fastest growth expected from Dingjide (鼎际得), forecasting a net profit increase of 171.15% to 206.73% [8][20].

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a rebound on February 3, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4067.74 points, up 1.29%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14127.11 points, up 2.19% [2] - Over 4800 stocks rose, with more than a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit or increasing by over 10% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 25,656 billion yuan [2] Space Photovoltaics Sector - The photovoltaic industry chain saw a collective surge, particularly in the space photovoltaic sector, with stocks like Aotwei and Dike Co. hitting the daily limit at a 20% increase [3] - SpaceX announced the acquisition of xAI, which is expected to enhance its capabilities in the space photovoltaic domain [3] - Junda Co. announced a share placement to fund research and production of space photovoltaic batteries and plans to invest 30 million yuan for a 16.67% stake in Shanghai Xingyi Xinneng [3] Chemical Sector Activity - The chemical sector also showed strong performance, with companies like Wanfeng Co. achieving a four-day consecutive limit increase [4] - Wanfeng Co.'s stock price has risen nearly 75% this year, driven by rising prices of disperse dye intermediates [4] - Analysts suggest that the chemical industry is shifting towards profitability-focused strategies, with opportunities arising from high-end export replacements due to declines in Europe and Japan [4] Market Outlook - Short-term market fluctuations are expected due to rapid previous gains and the upcoming Spring Festival, but medium-term support factors remain unchanged, indicating potential for a slow upward trend [5] - Analysts predict that February may see a rotation of funds towards technology and cyclical sectors, with a focus on previously underperforming stocks [5] - The market is anticipated to face adjustments in February, particularly in high-performing sectors like non-ferrous metals, while technology and cyclical sectors may present significant investment opportunities [5]

Group 1 - The global commercial space industry is experiencing rapid growth, driven by policy incentives and the increasing demand for AI computing power, which is expected to boost the demand for space photovoltaic solutions [1][3] - Space photovoltaic systems are identified as the most cost-effective power solution for space activities, with significant advantages over terrestrial solar power, including enhanced sunlight exposure and higher energy stability [1][3] - The annual energy output of a solar cell in a morning and evening orbit is 5-12 times greater than that of ground-based systems, and it does not require expensive energy storage systems [1] Group 2 - Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites are currently favored for short-term applications, with HJT crystalline silicon batteries being the preferred choice, while perovskite batteries are expected to be the future option [2] - Space photovoltaic batteries are categorized into three types: gallium arsenide, crystalline silicon, and perovskite, with crystalline silicon currently being the most cost-effective despite its lower performance [2] Group 3 - The market potential for space crystalline silicon and perovskite photovoltaic batteries is estimated to be around 3 billion RMB annually from 2026 to 2030, but this is limited in the short term [3] - If launch costs significantly decrease, the annual launch capacity could dramatically increase, potentially reaching 100 GW, leading to a market expansion to 500 billion RMB [3] Group 4 - Companies that may benefit from the growth of space photovoltaic technology include those involved in HJT and perovskite battery equipment, such as Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751.SZ), Jiejia Weichuang (300724.SZ), and Jing Shan Light Machinery (000821.SZ) [4] - Other beneficiaries include GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800) for perovskite batteries and Dongfang Risheng (300118.SZ) for ultra-thin HJT batteries [4]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective rise in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4031.07 points, up 0.38%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.93% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 161.69 billion yuan by midday [2] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Aerospace Development and JuLi Sockets [4] - The photovoltaic sector continued to strengthen, with stocks like Shuangliang Energy and JunDa Co. reaching their daily limit up shortly after market open [4] - The chemical sector also experienced a rally, with WanFeng Co. achieving a fourth consecutive limit up [9] Key Stocks - Aotewei reached a 20% limit up, while other stocks such as Dike Co. and Maiwei Co. saw increases of over 10% [6][7] - JunDa Co. announced a share placement to fund research and production of space photovoltaic battery products, and it also invested 30 million yuan for a 16.67% stake in Shanghai Xingyi Xinneng [8] Industry Insights - According to CICC, the development of commercial aerospace is driving the space photovoltaic sector towards a new phase of technological upgrades and industrial delivery [8] - Guosheng Securities noted that the demand for space photovoltaic energy is expected to become a new growth area, driven by the global demand for space energy and the restructuring of supply chains [8] - The chemical industry is expected to evolve with a shift from market share focus to profitability, alongside opportunities for high-end export replacements due to declines in Europe and Japan [9][10]