高盛发布研报称，仍看好瑞声科技(02018)，并预期光学业务的规模和组合提升，以及汽车、人工智 能/AR眼镜和机器人业务的长期机遇，将进一步改善盈利能力。维持"买入"评级，目标价由62港元升至 63.6港元。该行同时将瑞声2025至27年各年盈利预测分别上调14%、3%及4%，收入预测亦分别上调 1%、1%及3%，以反映今年上半年业绩表现。 瑞声上半年光学业务毛利有所增长，该行预期下半年毛利率将恢复至23.6%，主要受以下因素推动，包 括手机镜头毛利在下半年改善至30%以上;声学业务毛利回复，原因是中高端项目量产;以及汽车声学和 冷却业务多元化，利润率较高。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the growing demand for AR glasses, with silicon carbide (SiC) materials being ideal for AR lens substrates due to their high refractive index and thermal conductivity [3] - The company has partnered with leading AR players to establish a presence in the AR glasses substrate market, with plans to increase production capacity significantly [3] - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 20 billion, 22 billion, and 27 billion CNY, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 18, and 15 times respectively [9] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to decline from 17,983 million CNY in 2023 to 13,385 million CNY in 2025, with a subsequent increase to 15,236 million CNY by 2027 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 4,558 million CNY in 2023 to 2,017 million CNY in 2025, before rising to 2,658 million CNY in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to drop from 3.48 CNY in 2023 to 1.54 CNY in 2025, then increase to 2.03 CNY by 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 29.71 CNY, with a market capitalization of approximately 38,906.25 million CNY [6] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.26 and a total share capital of 1,309.53 million shares [6][7] Production Capacity - The company currently has a crystal pulling capacity of 300,000 pieces, which will increase to 900,000 pieces after the new capacity is established in 2025 [3] - A subsidiary in Malaysia is expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 240,000 pieces of 8-inch silicon carbide substrates [3]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4]. Core Views - The report highlights the company's strong position in the optical lens industry, driven by rigid demand, refined application scenarios, and structural optimization, which are expected to sustain good growth in market size [1][36]. - The company is strategically positioned across various segments of the industry chain, enhancing its competitiveness and market share [2][61]. - The company is actively developing its XR business, which is anticipated to create a second growth curve, particularly in the smart glasses segment [3][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been a leader in the lens manufacturing industry since its establishment in 1996, focusing on standardized lens production and expanding into customized lenses through acquisitions and partnerships [16]. Lens Industry Dynamics - The Chinese optical lens market is projected to grow, with manufacturer sales expected to reach CNY 297.5 billion and retail sales to CNY 537.1 billion by 2029, driven by increasing consumer spending and diverse vision correction needs [1][38]. - The demand for lenses is supported by rising vision problems among youth and the aging population, leading to a stable demand for corrective lenses [44][47]. Competitive Strategy - The company has established strong ties with upstream suppliers, particularly Mitsui Chemicals, ensuring a competitive advantage in raw material procurement [2][63]. - The company ranks first in domestic market share by sales volume and third by sales revenue, indicating a strong competitive position in a fragmented market [74][76]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are CNY 23.28 billion, CNY 26.57 billion, and CNY 29.63 billion, with net profits projected at CNY 5.61 billion, CNY 6.72 billion, and CNY 7.77 billion respectively, reflecting robust growth driven by traditional and smart lens segments [4][5].

Key Points - Momenta's self-developed driving assistance chip has been lit up and is undergoing vehicle testing, aiming to reduce PCB and E/E modification requirements, with performance potentially comparable to NVIDIA's Orin series and Qualcomm's SA8650 [4][5] - Xiaomi has appointed several executives for its African market, indicating a significant investment push, with a reported 38% sales growth in 2024, making it the third-largest smartphone brand in Africa [7][8] - GAC Group has approved a 600 million yuan investment in Huawei's new high-end automotive brand, aiming for a market launch in 2026 [10][12] - Vivo is set to release its first mixed reality headset, the Vivo Vision, on August 21, with a focus on lightweight design and high performance [12][13] - Li Auto announced the first batch of deliveries for its i8 model starting August 20, with a target of over 10,000 units by the end of September [14][15] - Didi has invested in the autonomous vehicle company New Stone, expanding its logistics capabilities [16] - TikTok is testing a "My Express" service to enhance its e-commerce logistics capabilities, allowing users to manage deliveries within the app [22][23] - Tencent reported a 15% year-on-year revenue increase for Q2 2025, with significant growth in its video and music subscription services [32][33] - Tesla has restructured its engineering teams following the termination of its Dojo AI project, redistributing personnel to various teams [35][36] - OpenAI's CEO has invested in Merge Labs, a startup focused on brain-computer interfaces, indicating a competitive stance against Elon Musk's Neuralink [37][42]

Core Insights - Tianyue Advanced has begun bulk supply of silicon carbide substrate materials to the Japanese market, with projected overseas revenue of 840 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 104.43%, accounting for 47.53% of total revenue [1] - The company holds a 22.80% market share, making it the second-largest silicon carbide substrate manufacturer globally, with increasing brand recognition in international markets [1] - The shift in semiconductor manufacturers in Japan and Europe towards Chinese substrates due to price and quality advantages is expected to enhance market share [1] Group 1: Technological Leadership - Tianyue Advanced has established significant technological advantages in the silicon carbide industry, with a total of 194 invention patents and 308 utility model patents, ranking among the top five globally [2] - The company recently won a prestigious award for its revolutionary breakthroughs in silicon carbide substrate technology, marking a historic achievement for Chinese enterprises in the semiconductor materials field [2] - The company has achieved mass supply of 8-inch conductive substrates and is set to launch the industry's first 12-inch silicon carbide substrate in November 2024 [2] Group 2: Production Capacity and Expansion - Tianyue Advanced has built two major production bases in Jinan, Shandong, and Lingang, Shanghai, with an annual production capacity exceeding 400,000 pieces [4] - The Shanghai Lingang factory has a production capacity of 300,000 conductive substrates per year, with plans for future capacity enhancements [4] - The company is also planning to establish factories overseas to further expand its production capabilities [5] Group 3: Market Demand and Applications - The demand for silicon carbide is rapidly increasing in downstream applications such as electric vehicles, photovoltaic power generation, energy storage, and AI, with nearly 80% of current demand coming from the electric vehicle sector [6] - The global power semiconductor market is projected to grow 7.4 times by 2035, reaching 2.9 trillion yen (approximately 150 billion RMB), with silicon carbide expected to play a significant role beyond electric vehicles [6] - Tianyue Advanced is actively entering the AR glasses market, anticipating significant growth in the AI glasses industry, with global shipments expected to exceed 60 million units by 2030 [6][7] - A strategic cooperation agreement has been signed with Sunny Optical to focus on the mass production of silicon carbide optical waveguide lenses, further broadening the company's growth avenues [7]

Market Performance - The main board led the gains with notable increases in stocks such as XinYa Electronics (+10.02%), Hengsheng Electronics (+10.01%), and WoGe Optoelectronics (+10.00%) [1] - The ChiNext board saw significant growth, particularly with XingFu Blue Ocean (+20.02%) and Guotou Intelligent (+18.52%) [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board also performed well, with Dongxin Co. (+20.01%) and Fangbang Co. (+20.00%) leading the charge [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Communication Network Equipment and Devices (+6.34%) and SW Printed Circuit Boards (+3.36%) [1] Domestic News - Yifang Commercial Technology launched its first AR glasses, NOMO-1, featuring over 82% light transmittance and a 120Hz refresh rate [1] - MuXi released the XiYun C600 chip, enhancing its training and inference capabilities with HBM3e memory and a storage capacity of 144GB [1] - Chengdu Silan's automotive semiconductor packaging project commenced with a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan, expanding production lines for automotive-grade power modules [1] - TSMC's advanced packaging plant in Arizona is expected to begin construction in the second half of next year, aligning with the development of a 2nm wafer plant [1] Company Announcements - Siwei Tuxin announced the acquisition of seven invention patents covering various technologies including autonomous driving and navigation [3] - Shijia Photon reported a total revenue of 993 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 121.12%, with a net profit of 217 million yuan, up 1712% [3] - Zhongcheng Technology signed a significant contract with China Mobile for a big data cloud platform service project valued at approximately 50.52 million yuan [3] - Liansheng Technology received a government subsidy of 13.5 million yuan, representing 12.24% of its latest audited net profit [3] Overseas News - The VSAP advanced packaging technology laboratory project in Da Nang has officially launched, focusing on cutting-edge packaging technology research [4] - Nvidia has ordered 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC to meet strong demand in the Chinese market [4] - Texas Instruments announced the release of a new low-cost processor, AM62L, designed for various industrial and general applications [4] - The U.S. Department of Justice announced that an EDA company agreed to pay over $140 million to resolve allegations of illegal sales of chip design software to Chinese institutions [4]

Core Insights - XREAL has launched its new flagship product, XREAL One Pro, featuring significant upgrades including a 57-degree field of view, which is over 63% larger than its predecessor [1] - The company emphasizes the need for China's industrial chain to evolve from OEM to product definition capabilities, particularly in the AR sector [1] - XREAL's founder predicts that the "iPhone moment" for AR glasses will occur around 2027-2028, when users are willing to form emotional connections with AI [2] Product Features - XREAL One Pro utilizes the self-developed X Prism optical engine and the X1 spatial computing chip, achieving a low latency of 3 milliseconds and supporting both 3DoF and 6DoF spatial interaction [1] - The device is compatible with various platforms including Windows, Android, Mac, iPhone, and Steam Deck [1] - The X1S chip is designed to handle latency-sensitive tasks, while general computing is offloaded to external devices, promoting a lightweight design [1][2] Market Positioning - XREAL maintains a high-end positioning for its products, avoiding price wars despite competition from Apple and Xiaomi [3] - The company focuses on technology-first development, investing in audio partnerships and self-developed optical chips [3] - XREAL aims to create practical devices with an average daily usage of over one hour, contrasting with competitors that may have lower engagement [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [5][6][16]. Core Insights - The company has released a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, expecting a year-on-year increase of no less than 30% in net profit attributable to shareholders, driven by strong sales growth of high-refractive index and functional products, which also enhances the average selling price [5][6]. - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades and has established strong manufacturing capabilities, which are expected to drive steady revenue growth and improved profitability [5][6]. - The XR business has a significant competitive advantage, with strategic partnerships, particularly with Goer, expected to unlock further business development opportunities [5][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 1,760 million RMB - 2024: 2,061 million RMB (13% YoY growth) - 2025E: 2,403 million RMB (17% YoY growth) - 2026E: 2,790 million RMB (16% YoY growth) - 2027E: 3,248 million RMB (16% YoY growth) [2][7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023: 327 million RMB - 2024: 428 million RMB (32% YoY growth) - 2025E: 550 million RMB (31% YoY growth) - 2026E: 682 million RMB (29% YoY growth) - 2027E: 840 million RMB (24% YoY growth) [2][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.77 RMB in 2023 to 1.75 RMB in 2027 [2][7]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer of optical lenses, with a comprehensive product SKU matrix and solid upstream and downstream partnerships [5][6]. - The smart glasses market is experiencing rapid growth, with significant sales increases expected for products like the second-generation Ray-Ban Meta, indicating a robust demand for innovative eyewear solutions [5][6]. - The company is actively expanding its domestic market presence and building its own brand, which is expected to contribute to new growth momentum [5][6].

Group 1 - Apple is developing at least seven types of head-mounted devices, with the first product expected to be smart glasses similar to Ray-Ban, projected to ship 3-5 million units by 2027 [1][2] - Apple will not launch new head-mounted devices in 2026, but multiple new products are anticipated starting in 2027, indicating a shift in focus towards smart glasses [1][2] - The AI glasses market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Apple, Samsung, and Google racing to establish a presence against Meta, which currently dominates the market [1][3] Group 2 - Among the seven smart glasses being developed by Apple, three belong to the Vision series, which includes lighter and more affordable XR headsets, while four are smart glasses that may replace some TWS and smartphone camera functions [2] - The global shipment of smart glasses is expected to exceed 10 million units by 2027, with Apple focusing on self-developed core chips for these devices [3][2] - Meta has released the Oakley Meta, targeting the vertical sports market, with significant improvements in battery life and functionality, indicating a strategic move towards specialized applications [6][7] Group 3 - Meta's aggressive investment strategy aims to dominate the smart glasses market, with plans to release a high-end product named "Hypernova" in 2025, priced over $1,000 [7][9] - Meta's AI smart glasses sales surged by 216% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by the popularity of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, which accounted for a significant portion of the market [7][9] - Google is also entering the smart glasses market by collaborating with Samsung to launch an operating system for smart glasses, indicating a different approach compared to Meta's self-contained strategy [11][12] Group 4 - The domestic market is experiencing a "hundred glasses war," with emerging manufacturers facing challenges related to supply chain management and product quality [13][14] - The competition involves internet companies, smartphone manufacturers, and startups, each leveraging their unique advantages in software, hardware, and ecosystem development [14] - The success of companies in this competitive landscape will depend on their ability to integrate product design, software optimization, and systematic capabilities [14]

Core Insights - The smart glasses industry is facing significant delivery challenges, with multiple companies issuing apologies for delays and lack of transparency in communication [2][9][15] - Despite the market's vibrancy, with 56 new smart glasses launched in 2024, over 40% of products showcased have not been made available for purchase, leading to a perception of them as "concept products" [3][4][9] Industry Overview - The smart glasses market has seen a surge in new product launches, with 56 models introduced in 2024 alone, surpassing the total from the previous year [3][4] - Major players in the market include both startups and established tech companies, such as XREAL, Rokid, and Xiaomi, indicating a diverse competitive landscape [4][5] Product Launch Challenges - Companies like Yingmu Technology and Shanjing Technology have faced repeated delays in product deliveries, leading to customer dissatisfaction and refund incidents [2][9] - A significant number of products, approximately 25, remain unavailable for purchase despite being announced, highlighting supply chain constraints [9][10] Sales Performance - Among the launched products, 31 are currently available for purchase, with brands like XREAL and Xiaomi performing particularly well in sales [11][12] - Xiaomi's AI glasses quickly became a top seller on platforms like JD.com, indicating strong consumer interest despite the overall market challenges [12][14] Market Dynamics - The industry is characterized by rapid product introductions, with 15 products claiming to be "first in the world," raising concerns about potential marketing gimmicks [15][16] - The smart glasses sector is compared to the smart speaker market, which faced a decline due to lack of innovation and consumer interest, suggesting a cautionary tale for smart glasses [17][18] Future Outlook - The smart glasses industry must focus on overcoming technical challenges and ensuring reliable product availability to build consumer trust [18][19] - There is a need for companies to prioritize functional simplicity and user experience over excessive features to avoid the pitfalls seen in other tech markets [19][20]