四季度债市展望：纯债的左侧拐点，转债的右侧机会 20251009 摘要 四季度利率走势或呈不对称倒 U 型，受风险因素及跨年配置需求影响。 30 年国债收益率约 2.1%，10 年期 1.8%，5 年期 1.6%，配置价值显 现，交易盘应关注稳定票息资产。 转债市场维持看多，溢价率高位，关注股性及结构性机会。监管趋严或 致部分产品收缩，如短债基金，但货基、专户产品或增量，关注央行与 监管协同效应。 商业银行资本新规影响已逐步释放，预计类似新规在正式执行前 3-4 个 季度开始显现。2024 年初新规对存单冲击有限，市场或提前反应，四 季度集中发酵。 跨年配置是金融机构早投放早收益的驱动因素，四季度利率下行多受政 策、基本面或事件驱动。国债表现通常优于国开债，尤其在 11 月下旬 至 12 月中旬。 三季度 GDP 增速预计 4.8%-4.9%，四季度 4.5%-4.6%，下行趋势未 改。四中全会有增量政策预期，但短期压力不大，货币政策仍是最灵活 工具。 Q&A 对于四季度债市的总体观点是什么？ 四季度债市短期内可能还有最后一跌，点位基本上已经到位，但时间维度上可 能还需要再等一段时间。当前市场情绪较好，但利率 ...

北大青鸟环宇(08095)再涨超10%，截至发稿，涨9.35%，报1.52港元，成交额1886.49万港元。 甬兴证券发布研报称，上海显耀显示科技有限公司(JBD)重磅推出"蜂鸟Ⅱ"彩色光引擎，以0.2立方厘米 的极致体积和性能突破。"蜂鸟Ⅱ"的核心创新在于其采用的0.1英寸MicroLED微显示屏，以及X-Cube架 构，最终实现体积和重量相比上一代缩小50%，体积为0.2立方厘米，重量为0.5克。随着智能眼镜新技 术不断创新，轻量的彩色显示有望推动行业不断发展，看好相关产业投资机会。 值得注意的是，根据JBD显耀显示公众号，9月22日，JBD宣布，联合应用材料公司(AMAT)与雷鸟创新 共同在全彩光波导AR眼镜显示画质方面取得实质性突破，相关成果率先落地于雷鸟X3Pro中，全面提升 了消费级光波导AR眼镜的视觉表现力。公开资料显示，北大青鸟环宇为JBD的早期投资方之一，并参 与了其多轮融资。 ...

甬兴证券发布研报称，上海显耀显示科技有限公司(JBD)重磅推出"蜂鸟Ⅱ"彩色光引擎，以0.2立方厘米 的极致体积和性能突破。"蜂鸟Ⅱ"的核心创新在于其采用的0.1英寸MicroLED微显示屏，以及X-Cube架 构，最终实现体积和重量相比上一代缩小50%，体积为0.2立方厘米，重量为0.5克。随着智能眼镜新技 术不断创新，轻量的彩色显示有望推动行业不断发展，看好相关产业投资机会。 智通财经APP获悉，北大青鸟环宇(08095)再涨超10%，截至发稿，涨9.35%，报1.52港元，成交额 1886.49万港元。 值得注意的是，根据JBD显耀显示公众号，9月22日，JBD宣布，联合应用材料公司(AMAT)与雷鸟创新 共同在全彩光波导AR眼镜显示画质方面取得实质性突破，相关成果率先落地于雷鸟X3Pro中，全面提升 了消费级光波导AR眼镜的视觉表现力。公开资料显示，北大青鸟环宇为JBD的早期投资方之一，并参 与了其多轮融资。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][11] Core Views - The company has launched several new products based on laser core technology, including AR display engines for AR glasses and underwater blue laser radars, which open up new market opportunities [3][4] - The company's products are characterized by high performance and low cost, with differentiated technology that creates high barriers in the AR glasses and underwater navigation markets [3][4] - The company is expected to experience new growth points by leveraging its technological accumulation in the AR glasses and underwater laser radar sectors, despite some short-term profit impacts from arbitration matters and inventory impairment losses [4][11] Summary by Relevant Sections Product Launches - The company introduced laser + LCOS AR display engines for AR glasses and two underwater laser radar products at the Shenzhen Light Expo [3] - The AR display engines include the Dragan G1 (dual-eye) and Rainbow C1 (single-eye), while the underwater products are the consumer-grade D10 and professional-grade T1 [3] Market Positioning - The LCOS + laser AR display engine offers advantages over the current Micro LED technology, including lower power consumption and higher resolution [5] - The underwater laser radar addresses the precision navigation challenges faced by underwater devices, such as pool robots, with a detection range exceeding 10 meters [9] Financial Projections - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 0.2 billion, 2.5 billion, and 3.6 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -31%, +1192%, and +47% [4][21] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 501, 39, and 26 times for the respective years [4][21] Business Segments - The B-end business is expected to grow steadily, with revenue projections of 18.7 billion, 22.3 billion, and 26.6 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 6.6%, 19.4%, and 19.6% [15] - The C-end business is projected to decline initially but stabilize, with revenues expected to be 3.7 billion, 3.4 billion, and 3.4 billion for the same period [16] Overall Financial Performance - The company's total revenue is forecasted to reach 24.2 billion in 2025, with a slight increase to 27.5 billion in 2026 and 31.9 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [18][22] - The overall gross margin is expected to improve from 30.2% in 2025 to 33.4% by 2027 [18][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][11] Core Views - The company has launched several new products based on laser core technology, including AR display engines for AR glasses and underwater blue laser radar, which opens new market opportunities [3][4] - The company's products are characterized by high performance and low cost, with differentiated technology that creates high barriers in the AR glasses and underwater navigation markets [3][4] - The company is expected to experience new growth points by leveraging its technological accumulation in the AR glasses and underwater laser radar sectors [4][11] Summary by Relevant Sections Product Launches - The company introduced laser + LCOS AR display engines for AR glasses, including the Dragan G1 and Rainbow C1, and two underwater laser radar products: the consumer-grade D10 and professional-grade T1 [3][4] - The LCOS + laser AR display engine has significantly lower power consumption compared to the mainstream Micro LED route, with a full-color power consumption only 1/4 of Micro LED, and has already been validated by leading manufacturers like Meta [5][6] - The underwater laser radar products address the precision navigation challenges faced by underwater devices, such as pool robots, at a lower cost [3][9] Financial Projections - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 0.2 billion, 2.5 billion, and 3.6 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -31%, +1192%, and +47% [4][21] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 501, 39, and 26 times for the same periods [4][21] - The company anticipates B-end business revenue growth of 6.6%, 19.4%, and 19.6% from 2025 to 2027, driven by new product launches [15][18] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a global leader in laser display technology and aims to penetrate new markets such as AR glasses and underwater laser radar, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [4][11] - The company has already received a purchase order for 10,000 units of its AR glasses solution on the day of the technology announcement, indicating strong market interest [6][11]

Core Viewpoint - The smart glasses market is experiencing significant changes, with increased competition from both established tech giants and emerging startups, particularly in the AR and AI segments [2][8]. Company Summary - Thunderbird Innovation, a startup focused on AR glasses, has completed its third round of financing in six months, indicating a strong demand for funding [3][4]. - The company has developed the Thunderbird X2, the world's first dual-lens full-color MicroLED waveguide AR glasses, showcasing its technological innovation [6][7]. - Despite being a leader in the AR glasses market, Thunderbird Innovation faces intense competition from major players like Xiaomi and Huawei, who are focusing on AI glasses [11][19]. Industry Summary - The global smart glasses market is projected to reach 14.518 million units by 2025, with the Chinese market expected to hit 2.907 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 42.5% and 121.1% respectively [8]. - AI glasses are gaining traction, with a significant increase in their market share, accounting for 78% of total shipments in the first half of 2025, up from 46% the previous year [12]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with companies that possess large models, AI application entry points, and hardware ecosystems likely to gain an advantage [19][20].

Core Insights - The evolution of AR glasses has seen a shift from Google Glass to Meta's Orion, with Meta aiming to redefine the market with its new products [2][3][5] - Meta's strategy includes a focus on AI glasses, which have gained significant market traction, while traditional AR glasses remain in development [7][10] - Apple's entry into the market with Vision Pro highlights a different approach, emphasizing spatial computing and advanced imaging capabilities [19][24] Group 1: Meta's Developments - Meta has invested heavily in AR technology, acquiring Oculus for $2 billion in 2014 and spending billions on content development [3] - The recently launched Orion AR glasses, developed over ten years at a cost of $5 billion, are seen as a significant but non-commercial product [5] - Meta's Ray-Ban Meta has achieved sales of 2 million units, indicating strong consumer interest in AI glasses despite their limitations [7][10] Group 2: Apple's Strategy - Apple introduced the Vision Pro MR glasses, focusing on advanced imaging and 3D video capabilities, marking its entry into the AR space [19][21] - The Vision Pro's 3D camera allows users to capture and view 3D videos, enhancing the user experience and setting a new standard in the market [21][24] - Apple's approach contrasts with Meta's, leveraging its existing smartphone ecosystem to influence the XR industry [24][26] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The global smart glasses market is expected to grow significantly, with IDC predicting a shipment of 2.846 million units in China by 2025, a 116.4% increase [35] - The demand for audio and video recording glasses is projected to rise sharply, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [35] - The AR glasses market is still in its early stages, with ongoing development needed for content ecosystems and product stability [34][35]

Group 1 - Meta is currently defining the AI glasses sector, with Meta Ray-Ban being the only product that has successfully transitioned from concept to market [1][4] - The Meta Connect 2025 event took place on September 18, where the highlight was the launch of the "mass production version Orion" [2][3] - The event featured not only the Meta Ray-Ban Display but also updates on Oakley and Ray-Ban product lines, along with advancements in the Quest ecosystem [3] Group 2 - The Meta Ray-Ban Display is a significant product, as it represents a tangible AR glasses offering rather than a concept device [5][6] - The display features a right-eye full-color single display with a resolution of 600x600 pixels, a 20-degree field of view, a refresh rate of 90Hz, and peak brightness of around 5000 nits [12] - The glasses include a UV detection feature that automatically adjusts the display based on environmental conditions [12] Group 3 - The Meta Ray-Ban Display is powered by the Qualcomm Snapdragon AR1 Gen 1 chip, maintaining the same processing capabilities as previous models [13] - The product incorporates a gesture wristband that detects muscle signals for advanced gesture controls, allowing users to navigate music and adjust volume [14] - A new feature under development will support EMG-based handwriting capabilities [15] Group 4 - The glasses enable users to view and respond to messages from WhatsApp, Messenger, and Instagram, and support real-time video calls [18] - A real-time transcription and translation feature is included, making it suitable for travel scenarios [19] - The Meta Ray-Ban Display will retail starting at $799 and is set to launch on September 30 [22] Group 5 - The third generation of Ray-Ban Meta glasses offers double the battery life of its predecessor and supports high-resolution photo and video recording [26][28] - The Oakley Meta Vanguard was introduced as a high-end sports AI glasses product, featuring significant hardware upgrades and a focus on sports applications [29][31] - The Oakley Meta Vanguard will be priced starting at $499 and is available for pre-order [37] Group 6 - Although no new Quest products were announced, Meta highlighted the performance of Quest in 3D content, with James Cameron discussing the upcoming 3D release of "Avatar 3" [40][41] - Meta aims to enhance the 3D content creation process for filmmakers, promoting a broader adoption of 3D technology [43] - The launch of the Meta Ray-Ban Display completes the full range of Meta's AI/AR glasses offerings [44]

Group 1: Macro Policies - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have introduced 19 measures to expand service consumption, including a series of promotional activities for service consumption [1] - The government aims to support high-quality consumption resources and collaborations with well-known IPs, extend operating hours for popular cultural and tourist venues, and optimize reservation methods [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Chinese assets have surged, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 1.76%, reaching its highest closing level since February 2022, driven by significant gains in stocks like NIO and Baidu [2] - The offshore RMB has also strengthened, breaking the 7.11 mark and reaching a ten-month high [2] Group 3: Industry Developments - The first brain-computer interface industry standard has been released in China, laying the foundation for high-quality development in the sector, with potential applications in neuro-rehabilitation and motor function restoration [9] - Meta's upcoming AR glasses are expected to significantly boost supply chain revenues, with global AR glasses shipments projected to reach 600,000 units by 2025 [10] - The humanoid robot startup Figure has raised over $1 billion, achieving a post-money valuation of $39 billion, indicating a growing interest and investment in the humanoid robotics sector [11]

Summary of the Conference Call for Jing Sheng Mechanical & Electrical Co., Ltd. Company Overview - Jing Sheng Mechanical & Electrical Co., Ltd. specializes in the production of silicon carbide (SiC) substrates, with a focus on 8-12 inch core processes. The company has an annual production capacity of 300,000 pieces in Shangyu and is expanding to 600,000 pieces in Yinchuan, with plans to gradually transfer capacity to reduce costs. [2][3] Key Points and Arguments Industry and Market Dynamics - The SiC substrate market is primarily used in power applications (e.g., new energy vehicles, energy storage, data centers), optical applications, and advanced packaging. The market for power applications is estimated to be around 10 billion yuan. Demand for AI glasses could potentially double the demand for power applications. [2][7] - The advanced packaging market is also significant, with Jing Sheng poised to leverage its technology and cost advantages. [2][8] Competitive Advantages - Jing Sheng has a strong competitive edge in the SiC substrate sector due to its expertise in crystal growth technology and equipment manufacturing. The company has successfully produced 12-inch products, a feat achieved by only a few global players. [3][6] - A strategic partnership with Xreal has been established to supply 8-inch and future 12-inch SiC substrates for AI glasses validation and product design. [6] Semiconductor Equipment Business - The company has seen significant growth in new orders for semiconductor equipment, with reported orders exceeding 3 billion yuan. This includes not only manufacturing equipment but also subcontracting for equipment components. [2][10] Challenges in the Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is currently facing overcapacity and declining profitability, with many segments operating at a loss. Jing Sheng's PV equipment revenue constitutes about 80% of total revenue, but new orders are under pressure due to poor profitability in the silicon wafer sector. [4][11] - The company is promoting superconducting technology, although progress has been slow, and it faces minimal impairment pressure as major clients have already accounted for potential losses. [4][13] Product Insights - Jing Sheng's main PV materials include quartz crucibles and diamond wires. The price of quartz crucibles is at a low point, with the company expected to increase its market share from 40% this year to 60% next year. [4][13] - In the diamond wire segment, tungsten wire is gradually replacing carbon wire as the mainstream material, with the company focusing on self-research to reduce costs. [4][13] Future Outlook - The future application prospects for SiC are broad, particularly in power applications for new energy vehicles. The market for AR glasses and advanced packaging is expected to exceed current power application markets significantly. [9] - As a leading manufacturer of large-size SiC substrates, Jing Sheng's competitive advantages are expected to strengthen with increasing sizes and new applications. [9][10] Additional Important Information - The company is also developing smart factory-related equipment, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from intelligent equipment in the first half of the year. [13] - The overall outlook for Jing Sheng's PV equipment and materials business is positioned at the bottom of the cycle, with potential for performance recovery as the industry stabilizes. [13]