Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the US manufacturing PMI to 49.5 in July, marking the lowest level since December 2024 [4] - The European Central Bank has maintained its three key interest rates, aligning with market expectations [4] - The EU has approved a countermeasure plan against US tariffs, amounting to €93 billion [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 4.18% to 2120.00 [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 21057.96, up by 0.18%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.70% to 44693.91 [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price rose by 1.24% to $69.36 [5] - The US dollar index increased by 0.29% to 97.49 [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65% to 3605.73, and the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 1.19% to 2203.09 [5]

Group 1 - The report explains a dual-factor model for gold price fluctuations, identifying US M2 and the US dollar index as the core factors influencing gold pricing. The model indicates that US M2 accounts for 78% of the variance in gold prices [1][10][17] - The first phase of gold value recovery has concluded, with gold prices experiencing a significant upward trend from August 2023 to March 2025, leading to a positive price differential for the first time in April 2025 [2][9][12] - Future gold price movements are expected to be driven by a weak dollar cycle, as the report highlights the long-term overvaluation of the dollar as a key factor suppressing US manufacturing competitiveness [3][24][25] Group 2 - The report suggests that the rapid increase in gold prices has brought them into a reasonably valued range, indicating that the phase of rapid price increases may have ended. Gold price fluctuations are now entering a second phase influenced by the strength of the dollar [5][33][36] - The continuous growth of US M2 is expected to limit the downside potential for gold prices, with projected prices of $3018.75 and $3060.67 for December 2025 and December 2026, respectively [5][33][34] - The report provides a target price for gold based on the regression model and price differentials, predicting a potential price of $3837 per ounce by December 2025 under a weak dollar scenario [6][34][35]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3359.85 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.24% [1] - The highest price reached was $3373.25 per ounce, while the lowest was $3357.70 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend for gold [1] - Gold prices have been suppressed below the $3400 mark for two consecutive trading days, with buyers entering around $3350 [5] Group 2 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.416%, contributing to an increase in the real yield, which reached 2.046% [3] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened, closing up 0.28% at 97.48 [3] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain key interest rates, indicating a high threshold for any potential rate cuts in September [3] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, with a 96% probability for no change [3] - Gold prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, with potential resistance at $3400 and targets at $3438 and $3452 [5] - A drop below $3350 could challenge the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, located at $3347 and $3341 respectively [5]

Group 1 - Silver market shows strong upward momentum, outperforming gold with a year-to-date increase of approximately 35% compared to gold's nearly 28% rise [1] - Current silver price is attempting to maintain above the critical level of $39 per ounce, following a prolonged supply shortage lasting 7 years [1] - Spot gold price has fallen below the important threshold of $3360.23 per ounce, while spot silver has shown a slight increase of 0.02% to $39.03 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates that the US composite PMI rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6 in July, with the services PMI significantly increasing to 55.2, reflecting accelerated economic activity [2] - Strong PMI data supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates, while also boosting the US dollar index and US Treasury yields [2] - Upcoming US durable goods orders data is crucial as it may provide new insights into gold price trends, with strong data potentially reinforcing economic recovery expectations and further pressuring gold prices [2] Group 3 - Spot gold experienced fluctuations with a downward trend, while spot silver remains near a 14-year high, hovering around levels last seen in September 2011 [3] - Silver's recent price action is supported by a weak dollar, with a weekly increase of nearly 2.36%, despite a slight daily decline of 0.50% [3] - Silver continues to trade well above its 9-day, 21-day, and 50-day moving averages, maintaining a bullish technical structure [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that several dollar-denominated wealth management products in China have been terminated early due to reaching their preset profit-taking conditions, reflecting a trend in the market [1][3][4] - The "Zhaoyin Wealth Management Zhaorui Dollar Overseas QDII" product was terminated after only 7 months, with a target annualized return of 4.20% [1] - Other products, such as those from Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, have also been terminated early, indicating a broader trend in the industry [3][4] Group 2 - The total scale of dollar-denominated wealth management products has surpassed 520 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to the previous year [4] - In June, the market saw a record high of 161 new dollar-denominated wealth management products, a 31.97% increase from the same period last year [4] - Many banks are offering annualized returns exceeding 5%, with some products reaching over 5.5% [4] Group 3 - The high returns on dollar-denominated wealth management products are primarily due to the high benchmark interest rates in the U.S., although a rate-cutting cycle is anticipated [5] - Long-term projections suggest a downward trend in U.S. interest rates, which may reduce the yields on dollar deposits and bond assets [5] - Concerns about the U.S. dollar's performance are linked to fluctuating policies, worsening fiscal conditions, and criticisms of the Federal Reserve, which may impact demand for dollar-denominated products [5]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is showing an upward trend, currently at 97.59, with a 0.11% increase, stabilizing near a two-week low, and is expected to record the largest weekly decline in a month due to investor focus on US tariff negotiations and upcoming central bank meetings [1] - Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are expected to maintain interest rates in their upcoming policy meetings, with traders looking for comments to gauge future actions [1] - The outlook for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has improved following a trade agreement with the US that reduced tariffs on Japanese car imports to 15%, with the yen expected to rise by 1% this week, marking its strongest performance since mid-May [1] Group 2 - President Trump’s rare visit to the Federal Reserve was largely overlooked by the market, which is accustomed to his criticisms of Fed Chair Powell and the Fed [2] - Market focus remains on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where Powell is expected to reiterate a patient, data-driven policy outlook without committing to a rate cut [2] - Technically, the dollar index faced resistance below 97.55 and support above 97.10, indicating potential for an upward trend if it stabilizes above 97.15 [2]

Group 1 - The interbank foreign exchange market showed stable trading with an average daily transaction volume of $208.2 billion in June, a year-on-year increase of 15.7% [2] - The average daily trading volume of the RMB foreign exchange market was $152.4 billion, up 8.9% year-on-year, while foreign currency trading grew over 30% [2] - The US dollar index experienced fluctuations, initially rising and then declining, ending the month at 96.77, a depreciation of 2.68% [3] Group 2 - The RMB exchange rate showed a steady increase, fluctuating between 7.17 and 7.19, with a month-end value of 7.1656, appreciating by 0.94% [4] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell to its lowest level since 2021, closing at 95.35, a cumulative depreciation of 0.64% for the month [4] - The offshore and onshore exchange rates continued to align closely, with the average daily deviation being minimal [5] Group 3 - The foreign exchange market saw a shift towards net selling, with an average daily net selling of $8.51 million, an increase of $5.84 million from May [6] - The market sentiment index rose to 62.78, slightly above the historical average, indicating a stable trading environment [6] Group 4 - The implied volatility of foreign exchange options decreased, with the average daily transaction volume reaching $8.28 billion, a 6.12% increase from the previous month [7] - The short-term implied volatility for the RMB against the USD fell from 3.8% to around 3.5% [7] Group 5 - The interest rate differential between China and the US continued to narrow, with the 10-year US Treasury yield dropping to 4.23% by month-end [8] - The 1-year swap points increased to -1866 basis points, the highest in nearly eight months, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8][9] Group 6 - The US dollar liquidity remained loose, with the domestic dollar financing costs showing a clear advantage [10] - The overnight interest rate differential between domestic and foreign markets remained negative, reaching a new high of -18 basis points by month-end [11]

黄金走势分析：从上周的周评中，我已经明确了本周的做单思路，回调看涨，上方关注3400整数关口位置，在周内的分析也给出3388的现价 单看涨3400破位到3420位置，周初的涨势过猛的情况下，我又给出了3420这个趋势压制线可能压制不住，去提示大家关注3452历史次高点的 压制情况，然后也给出3440尝试布局空单的建议（虽然金价最高3438附近就走跌）。在昨日关税协议消息面前，我的思路是等待回调3418- 3412继续看涨到3438这个位置的突破情况再去布局中线空，但是美盘消息面出现，金价接连跌破3405与3377-3383的两个支撑位，截止发文金 价最低到达3351这里反弹。每每消息面刺激多头情绪的上行都会在避险消退后金价会再跌回原点，这次的走势的是对这种行情最好的诠释。 如果从3438这里走跌是对前期消息面刺激上行的修复，那么3351这里止跌反弹就是对避险情绪退潮下跌的修复，但仅仅的20个点或许不够。 现在从盘面来看，上方短期的压制可关注3383附近（上行途中回调的位置）；下方可参考的支撑位就是起涨点3351这里；后市操作思路上建 议是： 周四（7月24日）美市盘现货黄金（XAU/USD）价格震荡走低，日内 ...

7月24日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对 人民币7.1385元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1414元调升29个基点。人民币对美元中间价连续三个交易日 升值，续创2024年11月以来高点。 连续几日升值后，人民币汇率创阶段性升值高点。7月24日，人民币中间价连续第三个交易日升值，单 日调升29基点报7.1385，在岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中同步走高，一度收复7.15关口，三大 人民币汇率报价均创下2024年11月以来升值高点。对于下阶段人民币汇率表现，有分析人士指出，在经 济基本面形成有效支撑、稳汇率工具会适时出手的前景下，人民币汇率韧性将会延续。 人民币汇率创阶段高点 连平指出，当前人民币处于升值阶段，我国降息存在一定的窗口期。建议货币政策持续释放人民币汇率 稳定的预期，运用工具箱内的各种工具，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。加快步伐发展 离岸人民币市场和在岸人民币离岸金融体系，在保持人民币汇率基本稳定的同时，稳慎推进人民币国际 化。 在王青看来，中美经贸对话磋商进展、美元走势以及国内宏观政策的节奏和力度，都会影响人民币汇 率，而未来国内宏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 20th anniversary of the RMB exchange rate reform, highlighting the shift from a fixed exchange rate to a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, referencing a basket of currencies [1][3]. Exchange Rate Reform - The RMB exchange rate reform, known as "7·21," was implemented on July 21, 2005, transitioning from a single peg to the US dollar to a more flexible system [1]. - Since the reform, the People's Bank of China has gradually increased the daily fluctuation range of foreign exchange trading prices and reduced intervention in the exchange rate, enhancing the market's role in the formation of the exchange rate [1]. RMB Exchange Rate Trends - A report by the China Financial Forty Forum (CF40) analyzes the RMB exchange rate's fundamentals, valuation, and potential in the context of current foreign exchange management policies and the internationalization strategy of the RMB [3]. - From 2005 to early 2022, the RMB's real effective exchange rate appreciated nearly 60%, aligning with the faster productivity growth of China's trading partners [3]. - However, since 2022, despite rapid industrial upgrades and increasing export competitiveness, the RMB's real effective exchange rate has depreciated by over 15% [3][6]. Determinants of RMB Exchange Rate - The determinants of the RMB exchange rate include external forces (global financial market risk appetite and the US dollar index), domestic market forces (improvements in economic expectations), and domestic policy influences [4][5]. - The correlation between the RMB exchange rate and the US dollar index is significant but lower than that of developed countries' currencies [4]. Domestic Policy Impact - Since 2017, China's foreign exchange reserves have stabilized, indicating a reduced intervention by monetary authorities in managing the RMB exchange rate [5]. - The alignment of the RMB's central parity and spot exchange rate from 2017 to 2022 suggests a move towards a more flexible floating exchange rate system [5]. Demand Insufficiency - Demand insufficiency is identified as the primary reason for the RMB's continued depreciation since 2022, leading to low price levels and asset valuation [6]. - The low inflation and weak asset price expectations resulting from demand insufficiency reflect a market failure, causing an undervaluation of the RMB's real exchange rate [6]. Recommendations for Exchange Rate Management - To address the current situation, it is suggested to establish a wide fluctuation range for the RMB against the US dollar to prevent excessive distortion of the exchange rate [7]. - The implementation of this intervention should be firm, with strict penalties for actions that breach set limits, ensuring that market participants do not easily challenge the established boundaries [7].