Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of the M2 money supply to pre-pandemic peak levels and rising inflation indicators have raised concerns about a potential "second wave" of inflation in the U.S. economy, reminiscent of the inflationary cycles of the 1970s [1][4][11] Group 1: Money Supply and Inflation Indicators - The M2 money supply has returned to its historical peak levels, with an annual growth rate approaching 5%, a level historically associated with inflation risks [4][2] - Recent data shows the Producer Price Index (PPI) has risen to a high of 3.3%, indicating cost pressures at the wholesale level, which typically precede consumer price increases [8][6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has been described as "quite hot," further supporting inflation concerns [6] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Warnings - Economists warn that the current situation may mirror the 1970s, where premature easing of monetary policy led to successive waves of inflation, ultimately resulting in severe economic consequences [11][13] - The lessons from the 1970s highlight the dangers of complacency among central bank officials, who may mistakenly believe they have conquered inflation, leading to policy missteps [13][11] Group 3: Political and Economic Pressures - There is a growing divergence between the White House and the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with calls for interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth and ease debt burdens [14] - The potential for renewed inflation could undermine the credibility of the current administration, with risks associated with political pressures on the Federal Reserve to lower rates [14]

Group 1 - The financial market is currently in a "silent" state, with reduced volatility in assets like the dollar and gold, as investors await a "confirmation signal" from Powell's speech, indicating that volatility could be imminent [2] - Investors are not looking for direct answers regarding interest rate changes but rather for an overall attitude from Powell during the Jackson Hole speech [3] - The atmosphere during Powell's speech is deemed more important than the specific wording, as the market reacts strongly to the overall sentiment conveyed through his demeanor and the audience's reactions [4] Group 2 - The term "risk balance" is highlighted as a key phrase; if Powell emphasizes this, it may be interpreted as a positive signal, suggesting a shift in focus from inflation control to economic and employment considerations, potentially signaling a precursor to interest rate cuts [4] - Powell is expected to maintain ambiguity in his statements, avoiding a clear roadmap to prevent the market from making aggressive bets on significant easing measures, which could put him in a difficult position [5] - The current situation indicates that Powell is in a challenging position, needing to balance concerns about inflation with the risk of market downturns and economic slowdowns, making the upcoming speech more of a performance than a straightforward Q&A [6]

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust reported a holding of 15,339.66 tons of silver as of August 19, with a decrease of 16.95 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On August 19, the spot silver price closed at $37.36 per ounce, down 1.68%, with an intraday high of $38.15 and a low of $37.26 [1] Group 2 - The White House released a list of 11 final candidates to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chairman, marking a shift from previous speculation that only included Trump loyalists [3] - The expanded candidate list now includes current and former Federal Reserve officials, indicating potential private communication opportunities regarding interest rate cuts [3] - The list features three current Fed officials and includes private sector economists, reflecting a broader approach to the selection process [3][4]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices experienced a slight rebound, trading around $3318.88 per ounce, while spot silver continued its fifth consecutive day of decline, trading at approximately $37.20 per ounce [1] - Recent U.S. economic data has unexpectedly declined, while stronger-than-expected PPI data suggests that Trump's tariff policies may still exert inflationary pressure, leading to a significant likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting [2] - The market for gold has been characterized by a stalemate due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy and the dollar, with prices hovering around $3350 over the past three months, supported by stable investment demand [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that spot gold is in a bearish correction channel, with prices remaining below the 50-day EMA, suggesting continued downward pressure unless new positive signals emerge [3] - For spot silver, the 14-day RSI has dropped below 50, intensifying bearish sentiment, with prices likely to approach the support level at $37.11; a breach of this level could lead to further declines towards $35.70 and potentially as low as $32.96 [3] - Initial resistance for silver is seen at the 9-day EMA around $37.75, with a more significant challenge at the upper channel limit near $38.70; a breakthrough could shift market sentiment positively, allowing prices to target the July 23 high of $39.53 [3]

2025.08.20 周三 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 反正，标普是提前转向了。标普全球确认美国的信用评级为"AA+"，在声明中表示："目前看来，关税收入的大幅增加有可能抵消近期预算立法中导致赤字 增加的部分。" OK~所以怎么说呢，这次是真的不一样，将降息抬上日程，对黄金好吗？好。但是这玩意儿我怕是镜中花水中月诶，谈不上抄底，有机会做个多得了。 我倒要看看，这次是怎么个不一样法。 黄金正儿八经的是昨天横盘了一天，在美盘后半段，准确来说是十一点钟，才松手下撤，刷新低点。隔夜一度触及3311一带，报收一根含长上影线的中阴烛 体。 好消息，黄金下破前低，高低点依次下移，或将带动大周期构成抄底机会； 坏消息，黄金这次的下撤，刚好就打在斐波那契扩展线的支撑上，按这个节奏，不能一段一涨吧？ 中等消息，市场似乎在等周四开始的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，虽说以往都是利多美股的，但是听说"这次不一样"。 不一样在哪里呢，是在说明年美联储换掌舵人这件事吗。老特在百忙中再次diss老鲍，称"他正非常严重地伤害房地产业"，并在此重述应该降息的事情。 同时，财长贝森特称，他将在9月1日劳动节假期前后开始与11位有实力接替美 ...

8月20日，英国国家统计局公布的数据显示，7月消费者价格同比上涨3.8%，较6月的3.6%进一步加 速，创下2024年1月以来最快增速。 通货膨胀反映的是物价相比12个月前的变化。这意味着与一年前相比，现在英国家庭为这些产品和 物品支付的费用更高了。 英国央行指出，此次价格上涨主要受机票、酒店和汽车燃油价格上涨的推动。 "现在物价太离谱了。"英国市民米歇尔·伯肯黑德（Michelle Birkenhead）感叹道，"两年前，每周采 购只要100英镑（约合人民币920元），现在却要150英镑。" 食品和燃油价格的持续上涨正使英国人的财务状况捉襟见肘。 彭博社指出，这些数据进一步证明，企业正通过将数百亿英镑的额外成本转嫁给消费者，以应对财 政大臣里夫斯自4月起实施的大幅增税及最低工资标准上调政策。 英国央行最新预测显示，通胀率将在9月份达到4%的峰值，是其2%通胀目标的两倍。 而英国相对紧张的劳动力市场也对价格形成上行压力。经济学家表示，自"脱欧"以来，劳动力市场 更趋刚性。尽管工资增长有所放缓，但约5%的增幅仍过高，使英国央行难以相信通胀能迅速回落至 2%。 英国国家统计局首席经济学家格兰特·菲茨纳表示，食品价 ...

Group 1 - Market expectations are leaning towards a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with investors betting on at least a 25 basis point cut in September and potentially another cut later in the year due to weak employment data [1][4] - The Dow Jones U.S. Home Builders Select Index has risen above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a technical bullish trend, driven by expectations of rate cuts [5] - Notable increases in stock prices for residential builders such as D.R. Horton Inc. and Lennar Corp., with respective gains of 5.8% and 9.2% in the past week, reflect the market's optimism regarding rate cuts [5] Group 2 - The current monetary policy framework of the Federal Reserve, established in 2012, is set for a review, which may lead to significant changes in policy strategies and communication mechanisms [4][6] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may abandon the "average inflation targeting" framework, which was deemed ineffective in the post-pandemic inflation environment, in favor of a single inflation target of 2% [6] - Powell's potential changes to the inflation targeting strategy are expected to be a significant part of his legacy as he approaches the end of his term in May 2024 [6]

黄金过山车，重回3330，跌没所有涨幅。震荡调整后，再次大跌30美金，破位新低，延续大的空头，持 续再探3300关口。 今天的走势 上方先看3324的位置，再次突破，持续看3345前高阻力。 昨天反弹无力，晚间就跌破位了。 当然了，不破3324，继续看回调。 今天跌至3310，跌幅达到了30多美金。 再次止跌调整，先看调整力度。 今天消息面 重磅今晚美联储货币政策会议纪要，又到了鹰鸽两派对决的时候了。无疑重点，依然是降息的议题，特 别是9月会议临近，要不要降息，或成为了最近的争论的焦点，内部分歧的结果，或影响市场走向。 下方延续，持续看向3300的关口。 再一次试探关键关口，不破上方再战3324。 下方再次跌穿3300，持续看向3280的支撑。 黄金连涨4个月后，到本月进入了高位调整的过程。围绕3300关口横盘，到本月依然不改震荡格局。随 着调整的持续，大的方向也进入了抉择的过程，震荡了4个月，随时迎来大的突破。 操作方面，黄金接连震荡下行，继续看承压和回调，关注3324和3345做空的机会。此外，黄金下方面临 关键支撑区域，关注3300和3280做多的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，关税收入大增，对于关税的 ...

英国7月通胀率升至3.8%，创18个月新高，服务业通胀也高于央行预测，数据进一步削弱了市场对央行近期降息的预期。 据英国国家统计局周三公布的数据，7月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨3.8%，高于6月的3.6%，为2024年1月以来最快增速。航空票价、酒店和汽 车燃料价格上涨是推动通胀加速的主要因素。 细分项目中，食品通胀从上月的4.5%加速至4.9%，创2024年2月以来新高。数据暗示，企业正在将税收和最低工资上调所带来的数十亿英镑额外 成本转嫁给消费者。 服务业通胀这一衡量潜在价格压力的关键指标则升至5%，超过英国央行4.9%的预测。该数据尤其令政策制定者担忧，因为这反映了英国国内价格 压力的持续性。 英镑在数据公布后抹去跌幅，在1.3492美元附近小幅波动。 交易员已大幅下调对英国央行降息的押注。媒体调查显示，截至周二，市场认为11月降息的概率仅为三分之一，年底前降息的概率也仅为50%。 自英国央行8月7日决定将利率下调至4%后，市场对未来降息步伐的预期已明显降温。部分政策制定者已警告，随着消费者试图恢复失去的购买 力，工资和价格螺旋上涨的风险正在上升。 通胀反弹对财政大臣里夫斯和首相斯塔默构成政治压力 ...

Core Insights - July inflation in the UK unexpectedly accelerated to 3.8%, the fastest rate in a year and a half, impacting expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England [1][3] - The inflation rate exceeded the 3.7% forecast by economists and was higher than June's 3.6% [3] - Key drivers of inflation included rising transportation costs, particularly airfares, and automotive fuel prices, with food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increasing by 4.9% year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month [3] Economic Indicators - Service sector inflation rose to 5% in July, up from 4.7% in June, indicating significant price pressures within the economy [3] - The Bank of England faces dual challenges of inflation rebound and sluggish economic growth, having recently cut rates by 25 basis points to 4% while raising inflation forecasts [3][4] - The anticipated inflation for September is projected to reach 4%, double the Bank's target of 2%, with expectations that it will only return to target by 2027 [3] Employment and Economic Growth - There are signs of a weakening job market in the UK, with rising unemployment rates and a decline in employment numbers from May to June, which may hinder wage growth [4] - The UK GDP growth for the second quarter was only 0.3%, a slowdown from 0.7% in the first quarter, influenced by global commodity stockpiling that had previously boosted exports [4] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The unexpected inflation data diminishes the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England in September, with core inflation pressures raising doubts about further policy easing this year [4] - Some analysts suggest that the Bank may overlook certain one-off factors driving price increases and could still consider another rate cut within the year [5]