Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous month, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.3%, down from -2.7%[2][28] - The month-on-month CPI shifted from positive to negative, decreasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month[3][18] - The core CPI year-on-year increased to 0.6%, up from 0.5% in the previous month, indicating a slight recovery[5][18] Group 2: Key Influencing Factors - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% drop in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total CPI decrease[4][18] - Seasonal increases in vegetable supply led to a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices, contributing to the overall decline in CPI[5][18] - Core CPI's increase was supported by rising gold prices, a narrowing decline in energy prices, and increased transportation rental fees due to holiday effects[5][18] Group 3: Future Projections - If pork prices rise unexpectedly to 40 CNY per kilogram and oil prices also increase, the CPI could potentially reach an annual growth of 0.2% in 2025[3][8] - The core CPI is expected to stabilize around 0.2% for the year if utility prices rise again, indicating a potential recovery in consumer prices[9][8] - The PPI is anticipated to remain under pressure in June 2025, influenced by international input factors and domestic energy price declines[12][14]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating an improvement in economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B increased by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in domestic economic growth[1] - Real estate sector sentiment improved, while investment sentiment declined, and consumption sentiment remained stable[1] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decrease by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in June, while non-food prices are projected to remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about 0.1%[2] - The PPI is anticipated to decline by around 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year drop to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, indicating a potential upward movement in the ten-year government bond yield and a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 20, 2025, is 2.23%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,098.20[20] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 4.00%[3] - Retail sales total for the month shows a year-on-year increase of 5.10%[3] - Exports for the month have a year-on-year growth of 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is recorded at 7.90%[3]

Group 1 - The core CPI for May is 2.8%, marking the lowest level since March 2021, indicating a stabilization in inflation growth [1][3] - The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.1% in May, lower than the expected 0.2%, suggesting a slower inflation rate [3] - Energy prices, particularly gasoline, have significantly impacted the overall price level, with energy prices down 1% and gasoline prices down 2.6% in May [3][7] Group 2 - Clothing and automobile prices unexpectedly declined, indicating that the anticipated impact of tariffs on these goods has not fully materialized [1][3] - Food prices saw a slight increase, while housing prices remained stable, suggesting mixed trends in consumer goods [7] - Economists believe that the true impact of tariffs on inflation may not be evident until later in the year, as retailers and manufacturers have pre-purchased goods [7][9] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is cautious about the potential impact of tariffs on inflation, with market expectations indicating no interest rate cuts before September [7][9] - Analysts suggest that the current price increases may be temporary due to businesses still digesting inventory and demand not fully rebounding [9] - The upcoming months' inflation trends will be influenced by multiple factors, including tariff policies, consumer demand, and labor market changes [9]

智通财经6月13日电，西班牙5月份CPI同比上升2.0%，预估为1.9%。 ...

智通财经6月13日电，阿根廷5月CPI环比上升1.5%，创2020年5月份以来最慢，预期上升2.00%；5月CPI 同比上升43.5%，预期上升44.60%。5月布宜诺斯艾利斯CPI环比上升1.5%，同比上升43.8%。 阿根廷5月CPI环比上升1.5% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the potential impacts of tariffs on inflation, highlighting that the CPI has been consistently below market expectations for three consecutive months [2][10]. Group 1: CPI Trends - In May, the CPI year-on-year increased from 2.3% to 2.4%, which was below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.5%. The core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, also below the expected 2.9% [2][20]. - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.1%, lower than both the expected and previous values of 0.2%. The core CPI also increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% [2][20]. - The proportion of CPI items with a year-on-year increase exceeding 2% rose from 37.7% to 40.8%, indicating a widening inflation breadth [20]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The article identifies several factors that may have suppressed the impact of tariffs on inflation, including the suspension and reduction of reciprocal tariffs and micro-level tax avoidance measures [3][10]. - The effective tariff rate in April was only 7.07%, significantly lower than estimates of 13-20% from overseas institutions, suggesting that various avoidance strategies have mitigated the tariff impact [3][10]. - The first sale rule allows importers to calculate tariffs based on the initial sale price, which may further reduce the effective tariff burden [11]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Consumer Behavior - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the futures market pricing in an average of 1.97 rate cuts for the year, up from 1.73 [2][29]. - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with one-year and five-year inflation expectations remaining at their highest levels in 45 and 25 years, respectively [5][13]. - Despite concerns about price increases, a significant majority of retail executives plan to raise prices, indicating ongoing pressure for price transmission in the market [6][15].

分析师密切关注PPI报告，因为其中的一些组成部分被用来计算美联储偏爱的通胀指标——个人消费支 出(PCE)价格指数。这些类别在5月份表现疲软：机票和投资组合管理费下降，而医疗保健成本也较为温 和。PCE报告将于本月晚些时候发布。 在美国总统特朗普今年4月宣布对贸易伙伴征收高额关税后，美国企业近几周一直在努力应对反复无常 的贸易政策。 特朗普表示，他打算在未来一到两周内向贸易伙伴发送信函，设定单边关税税率，以便在7月9日的最后 期限之前对数十个经济体重新征收更高的关税。 智通财经APP获悉，美国5月份生产者价格指数(PPI)总体保持温和，这表明关税尚未导致消费者和企业 价格上涨。美国劳工统计局周四公布的报告显示，5月PPI环比上涨0.1%，涨幅低于市场预期的0.2%。 扣除食品和能源后的核心PPI也环比上涨0.1%。 此前公布的5月美国消费者价格指数(CPI)显示，通胀连续第四个月保持温和。尽管到目前为止，加征关 税对美国民众的影响尚不显著，但经济学家预计，随着企业希望防范利润率进一步走软，价格压力将在 今年下半年加大。 PPI数据显示，5月份批发和零售商的利润率有所上升，尤其是汽车和机械批发，而此前一个月的利 ...

CPI公布降息预期提振？黄金日内上涨能否突破前高？中东局势骤然紧张，后市趋势如何演变？TTPS团 队交易学长正在分析，立即观看！ 相关链接 ...

印度5月份CPI同比增长2.82%，预估为2.98%。 ...

策略师：低于预期的CPI令人宽慰 但关税通胀"定时炸弹"仍存 金十数据6月11日讯，Principal Asset Management首席全球策略师Seema Shah表示，今日低于预期的通胀 数据确实令人宽慰，但仅限于一定程度。关税驱动的价格上涨可能还需数月才会完全体现在CPI数据 中，现在就断言价格冲击不会到来还为时尚早。 ...