见证历史！ 当地时间7月9日， 英伟达股价达到一个新的里程碑，成为首家市值达到4万亿美元的公司。 当天，美股三大股指全线高开，截至发稿，道指上涨0.65%，标普500指数上涨0.64%，纳指上涨0.95%。 | 0 △ ■ 田 0 | 价格 = | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 | 44526.47 | +0.65% | | .DJI | | | | 标普500指数 | 6265.17 | +0.64% | | .SPX | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 20613.00 | +0.95% | | .IXIC | | | 投资者将重点关注美联储上次会议纪要的公布情况，这份报告将于北京时间周四（7月10日）凌晨2点公布。 消息面上，据央视新闻，欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席贝恩德·朗格当地时间7月9日在比利时布鲁塞尔举行发布会时表示，当前欧盟与美国的贸易争端仍集中 在具体行业的关税领域，特别是钢铁、汽车、铜以及可能涉及的制药产品。 朗格表示，欧盟主要出口药品、汽车和机械设备，因此迫切需要尽快与美方达成一项协议，取得明确的最终结果和决定。但他同时表示，美方目前尚未承诺 降 ...

以下文章来源于科创板日报 ，作者马兰 花旗还指出，基于主权AI（通常是国家政府开发的人工智能）的需求高于预期，到2028年， AI数据中心市场规模将达到5630亿美元，高于此前预估的5000亿美元，而这将利好英伟达， 因为该公司几乎参与了所有的主权交易。 分析师看好 英伟达股价自4月下旬以来持续上涨，因市场预期人工智能需求激增将持续提振其盈利。尽管 公司首席执行官黄仁勋在5月份曾警告，美国限制对华芯片出口政策可能会对投资者造成不利 影响，但投资者似乎已经克服了对美国贸易政策的最严重担忧。 另一方面，机构投资者持续看好英伟达，因为该公司在人工智能领域的优势地位将继续帮助该 公司盈利并扩大业务。 花旗分析师Atif Malik将英伟达的目标价从180美元上调至190美元，还有34位华尔街分析师 也给出了"买入"评级，平均目标价为175.97美元，意味着英伟达股价在未来几个月还可能再 上涨10%。 科创板日报 . 科创圈都在关注的新型主流媒体，上海报业集团主管主办，界面财联社出品。 英伟达股价周二收于160美元，只要其股价超过160.46美元，就能刷新全球的市值纪录。而 一旦英伟达股价升至163.93美元，该公司将 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several key companies in the semiconductor and AI infrastructure sectors, including Chipone Technology, Industrial Fulian, and Huakong Technology [4][45]. Core Insights - Oracle has signed a significant cloud service agreement expected to generate over $30 billion annually starting from FY2028, which will account for approximately 52% of its total revenue for FY2025 [1][8]. - The demand for AI computing power is driven by three main application scenarios: third-party large language model (LLM) training, sovereign AI infrastructure development, and customized private cloud solutions for enterprise clients [2][33]. - The global AI computing landscape is evolving with both GPGPU and ASIC technologies advancing rapidly, indicating a dual-track growth in the market [3][12]. Summary by Sections Oracle's Major Contract and GPU Demand - Oracle's recent contract is a record-breaking deal that significantly impacts its revenue structure, highlighting the rapid growth in AI model and cloud service demand [1][8]. - To meet this demand, Oracle has procured approximately 400,000 NVIDIA GB200 high-end computing cards, making it the second-largest holder of NVIDIA's high-end computing cards globally [1][9]. Global AI Computing Landscape - The AI computing market is bifurcating into two main technology camps: GPGPU, led by NVIDIA, and ASIC, driven by companies like Google and Amazon [3][12]. - GPGPU technology is particularly suited for large model training and general AI applications, while ASIC technology focuses on optimizing specific tasks such as AI inference and cost efficiency [3][22]. New Growth Drivers for NVIDIA GPGPU Demand - The demand for NVIDIA's GPGPU is primarily fueled by three areas: third-party LLM training, sovereign AI initiatives, and enterprise-level private cloud deployments [33][34]. - The training of large models, such as GPT-3, requires substantial computational power, which NVIDIA's GPUs provide efficiently [34][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong core technologies and competitive advantages in the AI computing supply chain, including Chipone Technology, Industrial Fulian, and Huakong Technology [4][43]. - The long-term demand for computing power is expected to be robust, driven by sovereign AI, accelerated large model training, and enterprise private cloud deployments [4][44].

Core Viewpoint - The HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market is expected to experience tight supply and demand until 2027, driven by technological iterations and AI demand, with SK Hynix and Micron leading the market due to their technological and capacity advantages [1][2]. Supply and Demand Trends - HBM supply tightness is projected to persist through 2027, with a gradual easing of oversupply expected in 2026-2027. Channel inventory is anticipated to increase by 1-2 weeks, reaching a healthy level [2]. - The delay in Samsung's HBM certification and the strong demand growth from NVIDIA's Rubin GPU are the main factors contributing to the current supply-demand tension [2]. - HBM4 supply is expected to significantly increase by 2026, accounting for 30% of total bit supply, with HBM4 and HBM4E combined expected to exceed 70% by 2027 [2]. Demand Drivers - HBM bit demand is forecasted to accelerate again in 2027, primarily driven by the Vera Rubin GPU and AMD MI400 [3]. - From 2024 to 2027, the CAGR for bit demand from ASICs, NVIDIA, and AMD is projected to exceed 50%, with NVIDIA expected to dominate demand growth [3]. - Sovereign AI demand is emerging as a key structural driver, with various countries investing heavily in national AI infrastructure to ensure data sovereignty and security [3]. Pricing and Cost Structure - Recent discussions around HBM pricing are influenced by Samsung's aggressive pricing strategy to capture market share in HBM3E and HBM4 [4]. - HBM4 is expected to have a price premium of 30-40% over HBM3E12Hi to compensate for higher costs, with logic chip costs being a significant factor [4]. Market Landscape - SK Hynix is expected to lead the HBM market, while Micron is likely to gain market share due to its capacity expansion efforts in Taiwan and Singapore [5]. - Micron's HBM revenue grew by 50% quarter-over-quarter, with a revenue run rate of $1.5 billion, indicating a stronger revenue-capacity conversion trend compared to Samsung [6]. Industry Impact - HBM is driving the DRAM industry into a five-year upcycle, with HBM expected to account for 19% of DRAM revenue in 2024 and 56% by 2030 [7]. - The average selling price (ASP) of DRAM is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3% from 2025 to 2030, primarily driven by the increasing sales proportion of HBM [7]. - Capital expenditures for HBM are expected to continue growing, as memory manufacturers focus on expanding capacity to meet rising HBM demand [7].

| 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | | --- | 2025 年 07 月 02 日 他 研 究 开源晨会 0702 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 综合 | 2.601 | | 医药生物 | 1.804 | | 银行 | 1.535 | | 有色金属 | 1.489 | | 公用事业 | 1.046 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 计算机 | -1.182 | | 商贸零售 | -0.788 | | 通信 | -0.452 | | 传媒 | -0.376 | | 电力设备 | -0.373 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】"两重"接力支撑 PMI，预计 Q2 GDP 约 5.2%——兼评 6 月 PM ...

Core Insights - OpenAI's report highlights Zhipu AI as a key competitor in the sovereign AI landscape, indicating a shift in global AI power dynamics driven by China's technological sovereignty [1][4][11] - Zhipu AI's strategy includes a hybrid architecture and a comprehensive ecosystem that mirrors OpenAI's approach, focusing on developer APIs, enterprise solutions, and consumer AI applications [3][4] - The report emphasizes Zhipu AI's significant state capital support exceeding $1.4 billion and its collaboration with major players like Huawei, positioning it similarly to OpenAI's relationship with Microsoft [4][9] Group 1 - Zhipu AI is recognized for its "responsible and transparent" AI solutions, which are seen as a direct challenge to the centralized models of American companies [1][7] - The company has developed a "sovereign toolbox" that includes local data storage and partnerships in various countries, enhancing its global reach and compliance with local regulations [7][9] - Zhipu AI's rise is supported by strategic investments from entities like Saudi Arabia's Prosperity7 fund, indicating a shift towards a decentralized AI ecosystem [7][9][14] Group 2 - OpenAI's concerns center around the concept of "sovereign AI," which refers to a nation's ability to control its AI infrastructure and data, contrasting with OpenAI's reliance on centralized cloud services [7][11] - The report serves as a strategic alert to the U.S. government, suggesting that without national-level support, American companies may struggle against state-backed competitors like Zhipu AI [11][12] - Zhipu AI's emergence reflects a broader geopolitical strategy, where technology sovereignty is viewed as a critical competitive advantage in the digital age [14]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock surged 4.3% to a record high of $154.31, solidifying its position as the world's most valuable company with a market cap of approximately $3.77 trillion, surpassing Microsoft [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Nvidia's revenue for Q1 of the fiscal year reached $44.06 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase; GAAP net profit was $18.78 billion, up 26%; Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.81, reflecting a 33% growth [7] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Nvidia is entering a "decade-long AI infrastructure construction cycle," with a focus on AI and robotics as major growth opportunities, representing a multi-trillion dollar market [4][6] - The company plans to release new AI chips annually to meet the increasing demand for model inference and training [5] - Nvidia is accelerating its efforts in sovereign AI and large-scale government collaborations to strengthen global infrastructure and mitigate the impact of export controls [7] Group 3: Market Position and Competition - Loop Capital predicts Nvidia's market value could reach $6 trillion, with analyst Ananda Baruah raising the target price from $175 to $250, the highest on Wall Street [3] - Despite facing challenges such as export restrictions to China and increasing competition from companies like AMD, Google, and Amazon, Nvidia maintains a strong position in high-end AI chip performance [9] - Nvidia's transition from a "chip company" to an "AI infrastructure platform provider" is deepening its ecosystem, which includes GPUs, CUDA platforms, software services, and data center support [8] Group 4: Robotics Focus - Nvidia is targeting the robotics sector, emphasizing the arrival of the "era of general-purpose robots," with ambitions extending to various types of robots, including agentic robots, autonomous vehicles, and humanoid robots [6]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock surged 4.3% to a record high of $154.31, with a market capitalization of approximately $3.77 trillion, solidifying its position as the world's most valuable company, surpassing Microsoft [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q1 of the fiscal year 2026, Nvidia reported revenue of $44.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 69% [3] - GAAP net profit reached $18.78 billion, up 26% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.81, reflecting a 33% increase [3] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Nvidia is transitioning to an AI infrastructure company, emphasizing the importance of sovereign AI and accelerating global AI infrastructure deployment [2][3] - The company plans to release new AI chips annually, with preparations for the Blackwell and Vera Rubin series to meet growing model inference and training demands [2] Group 3: Market Position and Competition - Nvidia is positioned at the forefront of the "golden wave" of generative AI adoption, with analysts predicting its market value could reach $6 trillion [1] - Despite facing competition from AMD, Google, and Amazon, Nvidia maintains a stronghold in high-end AI chip performance, although the competitive landscape is intensifying [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Nvidia's CEO highlighted the beginning of a "decade-long AI infrastructure construction cycle," identifying AI and robotics as significant growth opportunities worth trillions of dollars [1][2] - The company is expanding its global market presence and aims to mitigate the impact of export restrictions by enhancing its AI infrastructure ecosystem [3]

Core Insights - Nvidia's stock price surged 4.3% to $154.31, reaching a historic high and reclaiming the title of the world's most valuable company with a market capitalization of $3.77 trillion, surpassing Microsoft [1] - The recovery from earlier losses of $1.4 trillion signifies a complete rebound for the chip giant [1][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The stock surge is attributed to optimistic statements from CEO Jensen Huang during Nvidia's annual shareholder meeting, highlighting the potential of AI and robotics, which he claims could create "trillions of dollars in opportunities" [3][4] - There is a growing demand for "sovereign AI," positioning Nvidia at the forefront of a decade-long AI infrastructure buildout [4] Group 2: AI Demand and Financial Performance - Nvidia's stock rebound reflects market recognition of sustained AI demand, with Microsoft reporting a fivefold increase in AI model requests compared to the previous year [5] - CoreWeave, an AI company supported by Nvidia, has seen its stock rise over 300% since its Nasdaq listing in March, indicating strong long-term growth prospects in the AI sector [5] Group 3: Recovery and Future Outlook - Nvidia's market capitalization has rebounded by approximately $1.42 trillion since its low of $94.21 in April, recovering from a 37% decline earlier this year [6] - Analysts from Barclays have raised Nvidia's target price to $200, suggesting a potential market cap of $4.9 trillion, indicating a 38% upside from current levels [7] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Nvidia plans to release a new AI chip annually and has signed agreements for sovereign infrastructure with countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, showcasing its global ambitions [8]

Core Viewpoint - Meta is entering the ASIC market to compete with Nvidia, with plans to launch millions of high-performance AI ASIC chips by 2026, potentially challenging Nvidia's long-standing market dominance [1][2]. Group 1: Meta's MTIA Plans - Meta's MTIA project aims to release its first ASIC chip, MTIA T-V1, in Q4 2025, designed by Broadcom with a complex 36-layer PCB and hybrid cooling technology [3][8]. - By mid-2026, the MTIA T-V1.5 will double in chip area and approach Nvidia's GB200 system in computational density [3][8]. - The MTIA T-V2, expected in 2027, will feature larger CoWoS packaging and a high-power (170KW) rack design [3][8]. Group 2: ASIC Market Rise - Nvidia currently holds over 80% of the AI server market, while ASICs account for only 8-11% [7]. - By 2025, Google's TPU shipments are projected to reach 1.5-2 million units, and AWS's Trainium 2 ASICs are expected to be around 1.4-1.5 million units, potentially matching Nvidia's GPU shipments [2][15]. - With Meta and Microsoft set to deploy their ASIC solutions, total ASIC shipments may surpass Nvidia's GPU shipments by 2026 [2][15]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - Meta's goal of 1-1.5 million ASIC shipments by late 2025 to 2026 may face delays due to wafer allocation limitations, which currently support only 300,000 to 400,000 units [4][15]. - The technical challenges of large CoWoS packaging and system debugging, which can take 6-9 months, add uncertainty to Meta's plans [4][15]. - A simultaneous acceleration in deployment by Meta, AWS, and other cloud service providers could lead to shortages of high-end materials and components, increasing costs [4][15]. Group 4: Nvidia's Advantages - Nvidia is not idle; it has introduced NVLink Fusion technology to strengthen its market position by allowing seamless connections between third-party CPUs or xPUs and its AI GPUs [5][15]. - Nvidia maintains a lead in chip computational density and interconnect technology, making it difficult for ASICs to catch up in the short term [5][15]. - The CUDA ecosystem remains the preferred choice for enterprise AI solutions, presenting a significant barrier for ASICs to overcome [5][15].