请阅读正文后的声明 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 30 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 5 月 29 日，万得全 A 放量上涨，开盘上涨后震荡运行，收涨 1.17%，超 8 成 个股飘红。指数现货方面，沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 开盘上涨后震荡运行， 收盘分别上涨0.59%、1.47%、1.76%，上证50开盘上涨后有所转弱，收盘上涨0.29%， 中小盘股表现更优。指数期货方面，期货表现强于现货，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合 约分别收涨 0.73%、0.31%、1.81%、2.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's recent statements regarding tariffs have caused significant volatility in the stock market, particularly affecting Apple and European markets [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Apple - Trump threatened a 25% tariff on iPhones not produced in the U.S., pressuring Apple to manufacture domestically [2][10]. - Apple's stock price has dropped 19% year-to-date, making it the worst performer among the seven major tech companies in the U.S. [11]. - The potential tariffs could lead to an additional cost of $900 million for Apple in Q3, with future costs possibly increasing [11]. Group 2: Market Reactions - European stock markets experienced significant declines, with major indices like the Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, and CAC 40 dropping over 2% [2][3]. - U.S. stock futures also fell over 1%, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices dropping more than 1% upon market opening [4][5]. - Major tech stocks, including Nvidia, AMD, and Amazon, saw declines of over 2% [6]. Group 3: Bond Market Response - In response to the market turmoil, funds have shifted into the bond market, leading to a decrease in yields for German, French, and Swiss 10-year government bonds [4]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - Trump's aggressive tariff stance poses a significant threat to global trade recovery, reminiscent of previous market downturns following tariff announcements [9]. - Analysts suggest that unless risks escalate significantly, the market may not experience another substantial decline, although the recent comments are seen as a step in the wrong direction [9].

Group 1 - Australia Trade and Tourism Minister Don Farrell rejects pressure from the Trump administration to align on trade issues against China, emphasizing that China is a larger buyer of Australian exports [1] - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in the cancellation of 91% of tariffs by both sides, leading to a positive response from global markets and a recovery in Australia-China trade relations [3] - The Australian consumer confidence index rose by 2.2% in May, reflecting a recovery from the impacts of the global trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration [5] Group 2 - Australia is negotiating with the US to remove tariffs on Australian goods, but the country is not rushing the process due to its reliance on resource exports to China [6] - Ten Australian meat companies have been granted permission to export sheep and goat meat to China, marking a significant expansion in the market and providing a balance against US tariffs [8]

关于本栏目 高频数据难懂？挖掘信息不易？【图说经济】每周一期，与您一同从高频数据库中抽丝剥茧，看 懂全球经济的新变化。如需底层数据库，欢迎联系国金宏观团队。 本期Headline 洛杉矶港口进口与预期同时回落 韩国 5 月前 10 日出口大幅下滑 中国出口仍然维持韧性 国内商品价格下行压力延续 服务业高频好转，有望带动 GDP 增速小幅企稳 美国港口进口与预期同时回落 5月4日 -5月10日，美国洛杉矶港口船舶停靠数量下滑至16艘，4月均值为21.3艘；港口集装箱 进口吞吐量环比下滑-124%，已经连续两周大幅下滑，当周同比增速下滑至32.1%，4月末同 比为56%。 此外，美国洛杉矶港执行董事塞洛卡表示洛杉矶港原本预计5月份将有80艘船只抵达，但其中 20%已被取消。截至目前，客户已经取消了6月份的13个航次。 洛杉矶港进口量下滑或主要反映中美直接贸易往来在持续快速降温。 据统计，中国货物占洛 杉矶港业务量的45%，涵盖家具、玩具及电子产品等。 | | | 03 节后第一周，中国离港船舶数量和载重量维持韧性。 5月4日-5月10日，中国20大港口离港船舶数量均值为199.9艘，上周均值为203.6艘，同 比 ...

欧盟贸易和经济安全事务专员塞夫科维奇：与美国商务部长卢特尼克达成协议，将加快谈判进程。 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 ...

WTO总干事恩戈齐·奥孔乔表示，全球贸易仍处于"危机"之中。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariff measures pose a challenge to global trade, as stated by WTO Director-General Okonjo-Iweala during her meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida in Tokyo [1] Group 1: Trade Challenges and Opportunities - The current trade environment is facing severe challenges, but there are also numerous opportunities that should be leveraged to address these challenges [1] - There is a consensus between Okonjo-Iweala and Kishida on the necessity to collaboratively address issues such as the deficiencies in the WTO dispute resolution mechanism [1]

美国财长贝森特：对于更无摩擦的全球贸易乐观以对。 ...

Group 1 - The easing of global trade tensions has led to a decline in investor risk aversion, resulting in a significant sell-off of bonds and a sharp rise in government bond yields in Europe and the US on May 12 [1][2] - The Nasdaq futures rose by 3.6%, S&P 500 futures increased by 2.8%, and the Dow Jones index surged nearly 1,000 points, marking a 2.3% increase [1] - In the Asia-Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index surged by 2.98% to 23,549.46 points, the highest level since March 26, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 5.16% to 5,447.35 points, the highest since April 2 [1] Group 2 - The ICE Dollar Index increased by 1.3% to 101.63, reflecting a stronger dollar against a basket of global currencies [2] - Oil prices saw a significant rise, with Brent crude oil futures increasing by 2.3% to $65.38 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rising by 2.4% to $62.49 per barrel [2] - European bonds experienced a widespread decline, with the 2-year German bond yield rising by 11.6 basis points to 1.906%, and the 10-year German bond yield increasing by 7.8 basis points to 2.631% [2][3] Group 3 - The UK bond market also saw increases, with the 2-year UK bond yield rising by 6.5 basis points to 3.971%, and the 10-year UK bond yield increasing by 5.2 basis points to 4.618% [4] - Japanese bond yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 6.3 basis points to 0.693%, and the 10-year yield surging by 10.3 basis points to 1.458% [4] - US Treasury yields mirrored the trends in European bonds, with the 2-year yield jumping by 11.1 basis points to 3.994%, and the 10-year yield rising by 4.9 basis points to 4.424% [5][6] Group 4 - The US Treasury issued $144 billion in two bond offerings, including $76 billion in 13-week bills and $68 billion in 26-week bills on May 12 [7] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including the Consumer Price Index for April and Producer Price Index and retail sales data later in the week, to assess the impact of trade tensions on the economic outlook [6]

Group 1: Conflict Overview - The India-Pakistan conflict escalated unexpectedly but ended with a comprehensive ceasefire agreement on May 10, 2023, after intense military exchanges [1][3][4] - The ceasefire was announced by both countries' officials, with military communication established to facilitate the agreement [3][4] - Despite the ceasefire, small-scale skirmishes continued in the border regions shortly after the announcement [3][4] Group 2: Military Actions - Prior to the ceasefire, India launched missile strikes on three military bases in Pakistan, marking a rare direct attack near the capital Islamabad [4][6] - In retaliation, Pakistan initiated a military operation targeting over 20 Indian military sites and claimed to disrupt 70% of India's power grid, although this was later contested [6][10] - The military actions and subsequent ceasefire negotiations highlight the precarious balance of power and the potential for escalation between the two nuclear-armed nations [8][10] Group 3: Economic Implications - The ongoing conflict poses significant risks to both countries' economies, with potential negative impacts on Pakistan's growth and fiscal stability, especially after recent IMF support [10][11] - India's economic growth is also at risk, with projections indicating a decline from 8.2% to 6.4% in the upcoming fiscal year due to the conflict and other external factors [11] - The situation underscores the importance of economic stability as a deterrent against further military escalation, as both nations are at critical junctures in their economic development [10][11] Group 4: Diplomatic Efforts - Multiple countries, including China and Saudi Arabia, are involved in diplomatic efforts to mediate the conflict, emphasizing the international community's interest in regional stability [8][10] - The involvement of over 30 countries in diplomatic negotiations indicates a broad recognition of the potential consequences of a prolonged conflict between two nuclear powers [8]