December 18, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific A-Share Sentiment Marginally Up But May Not Sustain Market sentiment rose marginally on higher turnover. However, global market volatility and lackluster domestic macro could curb it. A more forceful fiscal pivot and further China technology breakthrough could lead to more sustainable sentiment pickup. A-share investor sentiment increased vs. previous cycle: Weighted MSASI increased 4ppt to 51% vs. the prior cutoff date (December 10), while ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: A-Shares in China - **Market Sentiment**: A-share sentiment has softened due to year-end profit-taking and increased volatility in the US market, with a cautiously constructive outlook maintained by the company [1][2][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investor Sentiment**: - The weighted MSASI (Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator) decreased by 1% to 50% compared to the previous cut-off date, and the 1MMA (1-Month Moving Average) dropped by 4% to 61% [2]. - Average Daily Turnover (ADT) for A-shares decreased by 6% to RMB 1,801 billion, while ChiNext turnover rose by 2% to RMB 506 billion [2]. - **Net Inflows**: - Southbound trading recorded net inflows of USD 2 billion from November 20 to November 26, with year-to-date net inflows reaching USD 167 billion [3]. - **Government Policy**: - Beijing is considering interest subsidies to lower mortgage costs, which could support listings and stabilize prices. A broad 100bps subsidy could cost approximately RMB 400 billion annually [4]. - The implementation of such policies could lead to a gradual recovery in housing demand and stabilize prices in higher-tier cities [4]. - **Market Volatility**: - Chinese equities have experienced heightened volatility since October, with a potential US market correction posing a significant risk to global risk assets, including Chinese equities [13]. - However, A-shares have shown the lowest correlation with US markets, suggesting potential for relative outperformance [13]. Additional Important Insights - **Foreign Investor Sentiment**: Positive feedback from foreign investors indicates a growing interest in the Chinese equity market, with expectations for continued net inflows in the coming year [14]. - **Catalysts for Improvement**: Key catalysts for a more bullish outlook on China include improved US-China relations and a more aggressive fiscal policy, particularly regarding housing inventory [15][16]. - **Earnings Estimate Revisions**: The breadth of consensus earnings estimate revisions remains negative but has shown slight improvement compared to the previous week [2]. - **Methodology of MSASI**: The MSASI is constructed using 12 individual indicators to capture various dimensions of investor sentiment, normalized to reduce noise and reflect medium-term trends [17][26]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the importance of monitoring various metrics such as ChiNext turnover, A-share turnover, and margin financing to gauge market sentiment and activity [19][20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the A-share market dynamics, investor sentiment, government policies, and potential catalysts for future market performance.

Core Viewpoint - CME Group experienced a platform-wide trading halt due to a cooling failure at a third-party data center, impacting key commodity prices like gold, silver, and copper, which entered a "stagnation" phase for over 8 hours [3][4]. Group 1: Incident Details - The trading halt was triggered by a cooling issue at CyrusOne data center, preventing global traders from operating through the Globex system, leading to significant risks for institutions relying on this platform for hedging and speculation [4]. - The immediate consequence of the outage was a sudden disappearance of liquidity in the futures market, with OTC spreads widening significantly [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, noted that a significant portion of the gold price increase was due to investors positioning for an anticipated low interest rate environment, with an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut in December according to CME's FedWatch tool [5]. - The system failure not only affected commodities but also impacted forex, U.S. Treasury, and stock index futures, with the EBS forex platform also pausing trading [6]. Group 3: Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment is supporting precious metal prices, as the dollar is experiencing its worst week since late July, enhancing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets like gold [6]. - Market participants are limited to off-market operations until trading resumes, creating a disjointed state that may increase price volatility risks [6].

We continue to follow the outage at the CME that has halted trading in stock index futures and other contracts. That was caused by a cooling issue at the CME's data center. However, services are gradually being restored and treasuries.Commodities and metals are said to be trading normally at this point. You can kind of see the moves in the pound, the dollar, the euro. Stock index futures are still halted though.We will keep you updated on when those might be restored, but again, it's been hours at this poin ...

Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reached HKD 48.1 trillion by the end of October 2025, a 37% increase from HKD 35.2 trillion in the same period last year [1] - The average daily trading amount in October 2025 was HKD 274.9 billion, up 8% from HKD 255 billion in October 2024 [1] - The average daily trading amount for the first ten months of 2025 was HKD 258.2 billion, a significant increase of 102% compared to HKD 127.8 billion in the same period last year [1] Derivative Products Market - The average daily trading volume of futures and options for the first ten months of 2025 was 1,696,752 contracts, a 7% increase from 1,582,570 contracts in the same period last year [2] - The average daily trading volume of stock index futures was 568,701 contracts during the first ten months of 2025 [2] Stock Options and Futures - The average daily trading volume of stock index options was 115,461 contracts for the first ten months of 2025 [3] - The average daily trading volume of stock options increased by 22% to 896,891 contracts compared to 733,117 contracts in the same period last year [3] - The average daily trading volume of stock futures was 8,538 contracts for the first ten months of 2025 [4] Currency Futures - The average daily trading volume of Renminbi currency futures increased by 20% to 107,126 contracts compared to 89,600 contracts in the same period last year [4] Historical Records - On October 2, 2025, the weekly stock options trading volume reached a historical high of 312,545 contracts [4] - On October 27, 2025, the trading volume of Hang Seng Tech Index futures options hit a historical high of 64,982 contracts [5] IPO and Fundraising - There were 81 new listings in the first ten months of 2025, a 50% increase from 54 new listings in the same period last year [1] - The total amount raised through initial public offerings (IPOs) in the first ten months of 2025 was HKD 216 billion, a 209% increase from HKD 70 billion in the same period last year [1] - The total fundraising amount for the first ten months of 2025 reached HKD 507 billion, up 228% from HKD 154.8 billion in the same period last year [1]

日经225指数收盘上涨0.38%，至37644.26点，而覆盖面更广的东证指数上涨0.31%，至2,742.08点；当天，韩国综合 股价指数上升1.17%，以2607.33收盘，Kosdaq指数上升0.4%，以725.40收盘；在澳大利亚，标准普尔／ASX 200指 数收窄涨幅，持平于8,233.50点。 与此同时，ICE美元指数也大幅上涨。衡量美元兑一篮子全球货币的该指数最后上涨1.3%，至101.63。此外，泛欧 斯托克600指数早盘上涨0.7%。油价也大幅上涨。7月到期的国际基准布伦特原油期货上涨2.3%，至每桶65.38美 元，而美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨2.4%，报每桶62.49美元。 债券方面，欧债全线下跌，中期债券遭投资者抛售，其中2年期德债收益率飙升11.6BPs至1.906%，2年期意债收益 率升7.8BPs至2.147%，2年期法债收益率大涨10.9BPs至2.058%；长债方面，10年期德债收益率上行7.8BPs至 2.631%，10年期意债收益率升6.6BPs至3.678%，10年期法债收益率升6.5BPs至3.321%。 | SYMBOL # | YIELD $ | CHANGE ...