关税战

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特朗普想抢巴西订单,不到48小时,卢拉打来电话,中方送上定心丸
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 12:15
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations, particularly focusing on President Trump's request for China to increase soybean imports from the U.S. by four times, amidst ongoing tariff negotiations and trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Soybean Trade Dynamics - Trump requested China to increase soybean imports from the U.S. to address a supply gap and reduce the trade deficit, framing it as a win-win situation [1][3]. - In 2016, China imported 40% of its soybeans from the U.S., but this figure dropped to 21% by 2024 due to deteriorating U.S.-China relations and retaliatory tariffs [3][5]. - The U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods citing the "fentanyl" issue, leading China to retaliate with tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, further diminishing soybean trade [3][5]. Group 2: China's Import Preferences - If China were to increase U.S. soybean imports as Trump suggested, over 80% of its soybean imports would come from the U.S., contradicting its risk diversification strategy [5]. - The cost of Brazilian soybeans is approximately 15% lower than U.S. soybeans post-tariff, making Brazil a more attractive supplier for China [5]. - Brazil's President Lula reached out to China to reinforce cooperation and express concerns over the potential impact of U.S. soybean imports on Brazil's market position [5][7]. Group 3: China-Brazil Relations - China expressed support for Brazil in its trade disputes with the U.S., emphasizing the need for countries to unite against unilateralism and protectionism [7]. - The collaboration between China and Brazil is positioned as a counterbalance to U.S. trade policies, with both countries advocating for mutual interests in the agricultural sector [7].
中美会谈结束后,不到24小时,特朗普就收到噩耗,美联储拒绝降息(2)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 06:35
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain interest rates and emphasized that a rate cut in September is premature, which is unfavorable for Trump [1] - Trump's pressure on Fed Chairman Powell has not yielded results, indicating his limited influence over monetary policy [1] - The trade war has significantly impacted the U.S. economy, disrupting international trade and contributing to a soaring fiscal deficit of $36 trillion [1] Group 2 - There is a growing consensus that the U.S. is approaching bankruptcy unless substantial measures to curb the deficit are implemented [1] - The failure of government efficiency reforms leaves Trump with limited options, primarily relying on tax increases [1] - International investors are increasingly pessimistic about U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to rising yields and further discouraging the Fed from cutting rates [1]
关税后果初现,百亿美元或蒸发,美盟友陷焦虑,中国成最大赢家?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 04:58
Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policies - Trump's tariff policy has led to significant negative impacts globally, particularly affecting U.S. allies such as Japan and South Korea, causing anxiety and dissatisfaction towards the U.S. [1][5] - Japan's automotive industry has been severely hit, with a continuous decline in exports to the U.S. and projected revenue losses of 1.4 trillion yen for Toyota due to tariffs [7][8] - South Korea's automotive exports have decreased by nearly 17%, with major manufacturers like Hyundai facing an additional cost pressure of up to $5 billion [9] Group 2: Domestic Consequences in the U.S. - The tariff policy, while aimed at China, has also adversely affected U.S. companies, exemplified by Ford's net profit plummeting by 86.2% in the first half of 2025 [16] - The steel industry in the U.K. is experiencing heightened anxiety due to increased tariffs, with the U.S. raising import taxes on steel and aluminum to 50% [11] Group 3: Opportunities for Chinese Companies - Chinese automotive manufacturers are accelerating their overseas expansion, with exports exceeding 3.08 million units in the first half of 2025, a 10.4% increase year-on-year [19][20] - The unfavorable conditions for Japanese and Korean automakers are providing Chinese companies with opportunities to strengthen their presence in global markets, particularly in Europe [20][24] Group 4: Performance of Multinational Automotive Companies - Major automotive companies have reported varying performance metrics in the first half of 2025, with significant declines in net profits for companies like Ford (down 86.2%) and BMW (down 29.0%) [21] - The overall trend indicates that many traditional automakers are struggling under the weight of tariffs and changing market dynamics [21] Group 5: Future Trends in the Automotive Industry - The EU's recent policy to ban the sale of fossil fuel vehicles by 2035 is expected to accelerate the development of electric vehicles, positioning Chinese companies as key beneficiaries due to their advantages in the EV sector [22][24]
加拿大宣布取消多项针对美国的报复性关税,将于9月1日生效
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-08-22 23:17
Core Points - Canada has decided to cancel several retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods effective September 1, while temporarily maintaining tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum [1] - The decision is a response to the U.S. lowering tariffs on Canadian goods, with Canada aiming to strengthen trade and security relations with the U.S. [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney emphasized that the U.S. has indicated it will not impose tariffs on Canadian goods that fall under the USMCA, marking a positive development [1] Group 1 - The Canadian government will align with the U.S. by removing all retaliatory tariffs on goods covered by the USMCA [1] - Carney stated that the average tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on Canadian goods is approximately 5.6% [1] - Carney compared the current situation to a hockey game, suggesting a more cautious strategy rather than an aggressive stance [1] Group 2 - A White House official welcomed Canada's decision, indicating it was overdue and expressing a desire to continue discussions on trade and national security [1] - Earlier in the month, Carney hinted at the possibility of canceling some retaliatory tariffs to help Canadian industries amid the tariff conflict with the U.S. [2] - Carney's approach has shifted from a more aggressive stance during the election campaign to a more moderate position, including the cancellation of the digital services tax proposal [2]
加拿大宣布取消多项针对美国商品的报复性关税
Yang Shi Xin Wen Ke Hu Duan· 2025-08-22 16:37
Group 1 - Canada has decided to cancel several retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, while temporarily maintaining tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum [1][3] - The measures are a response to the U.S. reducing tariffs on Canadian goods, indicating a potential thaw in trade relations [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney and U.S. President Trump discussed the tariff situation and other international issues, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement [1] Group 2 - On July 31, Trump signed an executive order raising tariffs on certain Canadian goods to 35%, effective August 1, excluding products covered by the USMCA [3] - Since the trade conflict began, the Canadian government has imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods three times, including tariffs on $60 billion CAD worth of U.S. products and additional tariffs on U.S. automobiles [3]
美债突破37万亿!特朗普高喊"美国全胜",财长紧急向中国求援遭拒
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 10:46
Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with a government deficit reaching $1.83 trillion, indicating a rapidly deteriorating economic situation [1][2][3] - In the previous year, U.S. government revenue was $4.92 trillion, while expenditures totaled $6.75 trillion, leading to an alarming deficit [2] - Despite the economic challenges, former President Trump has made contradictory statements, claiming "victory" in various aspects of the economy, which contrasts sharply with the reality of the national debt and deficit [3][5] Group 2 - Trump's administration attempted to implement cost-cutting measures by forming a "government efficiency department" led by Elon Musk, but this initiative failed within three months due to backlash from bureaucratic and interest groups [5][7] - The administration's plan to impose a 10% tariff on $4.11 trillion of imports was met with resistance from allies, who refused to bear the financial burden, leading to complications in the tariff strategy [7][9] - Retailers in the U.S. have begun raising prices on imported goods due to increased costs from tariffs, contributing to a resurgence in inflation, with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [11][15] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has maintained a tight monetary policy to combat inflation, resulting in rising loan rates that are causing financial strain on small and medium-sized enterprises [15] - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" plan, which aimed to support key industries, has been criticized for primarily benefiting Wall Street giants and energy companies while cutting healthcare subsidies for ordinary citizens [15][20] - The U.S. is seeking financial support from allies like Japan and the EU, but these countries have expressed their own economic pressures and are unwilling to provide assistance [17][20] Group 4 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has expressed a desire to strengthen economic cooperation with China, hoping for increased purchases of U.S. agricultural products and bonds, but China has reduced its holdings of U.S. debt by over $20 billion [20][22] - China's response to U.S. economic overtures has been clear: it demands an end to confrontational policies before considering any financial support, highlighting the inconsistency in U.S. policy [22][24] - The fundamental issue facing the U.S. economy lies in its dual standards of policy, seeking cooperation while simultaneously imposing restrictions on other nations, which is unlikely to resolve the ongoing economic crisis [22][24]
货币战又要来了,欧美逼人民币升值!金融战回旋镖重创美国制造业
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 09:29
Group 1 - The core argument of the articles revolves around the failure of Trump's tariff strategy, which aimed to pressure China into a currency agreement similar to the Plaza Accord, resulting in a significant increase in electric vehicle prices in the U.S. by 23% [2][9] - The U.S. retail giants, including Walmart and Target, have shifted their stance, now willing to absorb tariffs to maintain supply chains, indicating a backlash against the tariff strategy [9] - The financial implications of the tariff war have led to a surge in U.S. debt costs, with the Treasury Department expressing concern over rising interest rates and the potential loss of dollar credibility [12] Group 2 - The articles highlight the contrast between the current U.S.-China trade dynamics and the historical context of Japan's Plaza Accord, emphasizing that China is less likely to concede financial sovereignty due to its strong manufacturing base and foreign reserves [6][10] - The impact of the tariffs has been felt in the semiconductor industry, where China's exports have reached $160 billion, and the rising costs have pressured U.S. automotive and chip manufacturers [4][9] - The emergence of alternative financial systems, such as the digital yuan and regional trade agreements, is seen as a challenge to the dominance of the U.S. dollar, with increasing use of local currencies in trade [12]
关税战玩不转,美国又要对中国使出阴险杀招?
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-22 07:36
当美国发现关税大棒砸不垮中国制造,金融战也没能如愿绞杀中国经济时,华盛顿的政客们又开始摩拳 擦掌,准备使出更毒辣的一招了。 ...
中美“关税战”最大牺牲品浮出水面!特朗普突遭晴天霹雳,中国铁了心不再购买美国大豆
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 06:15
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the U.S. soybean industry due to declining exports to China, highlighting the impact of political decisions on agricultural cash flow and market dynamics [1][3][10] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Exports and Market Dynamics - U.S. soybean exports heavily rely on China, with approximately 28% of production sold to China before 2018, and nearly 60% of total U.S. soybean exports [3] - In the 2023/24 market year, U.S. soybean exports to China are projected at nearly 25 million tons, while exports to the EU are less than one-fifth of that amount [3] - The delay in Chinese orders for U.S. soybeans is the latest in nearly two decades, with China locking in significant purchases from Brazil instead [1][3] Group 2: Factors Influencing China's Purchasing Decisions - China's reluctance to purchase U.S. soybeans is driven by three main factors: price competitiveness, stable supply chain, and risk management [4] - The increase in South American soybean production and lower shipping costs have made Brazilian soybeans more attractive to China [4] - Political tensions have led China to diversify its sourcing strategy, incorporating alternative oils and reducing reliance on U.S. soybeans [4][7] Group 3: Implications for U.S. Farmers - U.S. farmers face significant financial risks due to the potential disruption of cash flow from contract farming, which is tightly linked to market conditions and political decisions [3][4] - The article emphasizes that U.S. farmers are becoming "tools" in political negotiations, with their economic stability jeopardized by the intertwining of agricultural trade and political agendas [7][10] - Historical data shows that U.S. agricultural losses can be substantial, as seen in 2018 when tariffs led to a drop in exports to China, resulting in an estimated $2 billion loss [4][10] Group 4: Recommendations for U.S. Agricultural Policy - The article suggests that the U.S. government should focus on creating predictable trade rules and reducing political noise to regain market share in China [5][8] - Specific recommendations include establishing a clear timeline for tariff handling, improving logistics and inspection processes, and separating agricultural issues from broader political discussions [8] - By addressing these areas, the U.S. soybean industry could potentially restore its competitive edge and improve cash flow stability for farmers [8][10]
外交部:中国优质产品享誉世界是关税战、贸易战改变不了的
Xin Hua She· 2025-08-21 11:07
毛宁表示,面对复杂多变的外部环境,中国外贸运行持续向好,展现出中国经济的强大韧性和全球市场 对中国产品的旺盛需求,这是扩大高水平对外开放、推动高质量发展、促进产业优化升级等因素共同作 用的结果。 "事实证明,基于比较优势开展国际贸易,实现共同发展,各方都从中受益。中国优质产品享誉世界, 多元稳定市场广受青睐,这是关税战、贸易战改变不了的。"毛宁说,中国将继续同各国共享发展机 遇,开放合作、互利共赢。 新华社北京8月21日电(记者邵艺博、陆君钰)外交部发言人毛宁21日表示,中国外贸运行持续向好, 展现出中国经济的强大韧性和全球市场对中国产品的旺盛需求。中国优质产品享誉世界,多元稳定市场 广受青睐,这是关税战、贸易战改变不了的。 当日例行记者会上,有记者问:我们注意到,日前中方公布了7月份经济数据,其中外贸数据尤为亮 眼,货物进出口总额创今年来新高。有评论认为,中国外贸持续增长凸显全球对中国商品的广泛认可, 这将继续成为中国经济的重要驱动力。但也有分析称,关税战等外部风险冲击全球贸易,让中国出口市 场持续承压。发言人对此有何评论? ...