欧洲央行管委卡兹米尔：在贸易战局势更为明朗之前，不会调整利率。 ...

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The Euro is consolidating near the weekly high above 1.1600 against the US Dollar [1] - The British Pound is stabilizing around 1.3600 amid the latest rally [1] - The Japanese Yen continues its strong rebound from the lowest point since May 13, supported by ongoing buying pressure [1] - The Australian Dollar is recovering towards 0.6500 due to improved global risk sentiment [1] - The New Zealand Dollar has risen over 1%, rebounding approximately 2.5% from Monday's low [1] - The US Dollar is weakening against the Canadian Dollar [1] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by at least 2 to 3 percentage points [2] - Fed officials Bowman and Goolsbee have indicated support for a rate cut in July if inflation pressures are controlled [2] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Data - Germany's June manufacturing PMI reached a 34-month high, with services and composite PMIs also hitting 3-month highs [3] - France's June manufacturing PMI fell to a 4-month low, with services and composite PMIs at 2-month lows [3] - The German Industrial Association forecasts a 0.3% contraction in the German economy by 2025, revised from a previous estimate of 0.1% contraction [3] - ECB officials have suggested potential rate cuts despite oil market volatility, with Lagarde noting a generally weak economic outlook [3] Group 4: Japanese Economic Outlook - Japan's PMI supports the Bank of Japan's potential rate hike in October [4] - Japanese officials support a revised bond issuance plan [5] - The Prime Minister aims to increase Japan's GDP from 400 trillion yen to 1000 trillion yen by 2040, targeting a real wage growth rate of 1% or more [5] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD maintains strong momentum, having broken the significant resistance level at 1.3520, with targets at 1.3600 and 1.3655 [6] - The USD/JPY has broken below the 100-hour moving average support, testing the critical support range of 145.40-145.00 [6] - The US Dollar Index remains below key moving averages, indicating a bearish trend, but a short-term breakout above the 50-day moving average could trigger a short-covering rally [6]

Group 1: US Dollar - Trump calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by at least 2 to 3 percentage points [1] - Fed officials Bowman and Goolsbee suggest support for a rate cut in July if inflation pressures are controlled [1] Group 2: Eurozone - Germany's June manufacturing PMI reaches a 34-month high, while services and composite PMIs hit 3-month highs [1] - France's June manufacturing PMI hits a 4-month low, with services and composite PMIs at 2-month lows [1] - The German Industrial Association forecasts a 0.3% contraction in the German economy by 2025, revised from a previous forecast of a 0.1% contraction [1] - European Central Bank officials express potential for rate cuts despite oil market volatility, with Lagarde noting a generally weak economic outlook [1][1][1] Group 3: Japanese Yen - Capital Economics indicates that Japan's PMI supports the Bank of Japan's potential rate hike in October [1] - Japanese Finance Ministry officials show majority support for the revised bond issuance plan [1] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida aims to increase Japan's GDP from 400 trillion yen to 1,000 trillion yen by 2040, targeting a real wage growth rate of 1% or more [1]

Core Viewpoint - Mobileye's stock experienced a significant increase of 11.6% due to geopolitical events and macroeconomic factors, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite which both gained 0.9% [1] Geopolitical Factors - Investors reacted positively to Iran's missile strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq and Qatar, interpreting them as a sign that military tensions might deescalate [2][5] - The U.S. had conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, raising concerns about potential escalation in the Middle East, but the nature of Iran's retaliatory strikes appeared largely symbolic and preemptively communicated to U.S. officials, resulting in no reported casualties [4][5] - Mobileye, being headquartered in Israel, could face challenges if geopolitical stability worsens, but the current signs of deescalation have positively impacted its stock price [6] Macroeconomic Factors - Comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman suggested that a rate cut could be possible next month, which contributed to the bullish sentiment in the stock market [7][8] - Bowman's remarks indicated that the macroeconomic environment might be more favorable for a rate cut than previously thought, potentially benefiting Mobileye and other growth stocks if the Fed decides to lower rates [8]

编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 摘要 美联储主席鲍威尔在众议院金融服务委员会发表半年度货币政策报告证词（22:00） 06 月 25 日美联储主席鲍威尔在参议院委员会就半年度货币政策报告作证词陈述（22:00）日本央行公 布 6 月货币政策会议审议委员意见摘要（07:50） 06 月 26 日美国至 6 月 21 日当周初请失业金人数(万人)（20:30）美国第一季度实际 GDP 年化季率终值 （20:30）美国第一季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率终值（20:30） 06 月 27 日美国 5 月核心 PCE 物价指数年率（20:30）美国 6 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值 （22:00） （转自：吴说） 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美联储和日本央行都维持利率不变；本周可重点关注鲍威尔就半年度货 币政策报告作证词陈述以及美国 5 月 核心 PCE 等。 上周回顾美联储宣布利率决定（上限）为 4.50%，符合预期 4.50%，前值 4.50%。日本央行维持政策利 率在 0.5%不变，符合市场预期，这是其连续第三次维持利率不变。美国至 6 月 14 日当周初请失业金人 数 24.5 万人，预期 24.5 万人 ...

Domestic News - The People's Bank of China maintains the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5% respectively, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology focuses on key industries such as clean low-carbon hydrogen, new energy storage, and green computing, aiming to enhance technological innovation and develop landmark products [3] - The Financial Supervisory Administration allows currency brokerage firms to facilitate market transactions for financial institutions involving currency, bonds, foreign exchange, and gold [3] - The National Medical Products Administration has approved measures to optimize lifecycle supervision to support the innovation of high-end medical devices [3] - The Ministry of Finance reports that from January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while stamp duty revenue increased by 18.8% to 1,787 billion yuan, with securities transaction stamp duty revenue rising by 52.4% to 668 billion yuan [3] International News - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has raised the margin for Brent crude oil futures by 24%, reflecting increased market volatility [2] - Market reports indicate that the European Union has abandoned the proposal to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $45 [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy report states that inflation is "slightly high" and the job market is in "good condition," with policies ready to wait for clearer economic prospects [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggests that a rate cut may occur as early as the July meeting, while other officials indicate that current data does not necessitate an urgent rate cut [2] - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran continues, with Iran expressing readiness to discuss uranium enrichment limits but rejecting zero enrichment options [2]

特朗普：美联储应将利率下调至1%-2% 或许选择"不会解雇"鲍威尔 金十数据6月21日讯，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文："太迟先生"鲍威尔抱怨成本问题，而其中很大 一部分成本是由拜登的虚假"政府"造成的。但他本可以通过帮助降低利率来为我们的国家完成最伟大、 最出色的工作—— 如果他能将利率降至合理水平，即1%到2%，那么这个"蠢货"每年就能为美利坚合 众国节省高达1万亿美元。我完全明白，我对他的强烈批评让他更难去做他该做的事（即降息），但我 已经尝试过所有不同的方式。我曾友善相待，也曾保持中立，还曾言辞犀利——但友善和中立都不管 用！他是个愚蠢的家伙，而且显然是我的反对者， 他根本就不该坐在那个位置上。我当初听信了不该 听信的人，而拜登也不该重新任命他。我们目前几乎没有通胀，我们的经济表现非常好，而且随着巨额 关税收入的流入以及全国各地正在建设的工厂，经济很快就会比以往任何时候都更加繁荣。如果他真的 关心通胀或其他任何问题，那他只需降低利率，这样我们就能从利息成本中受益；如果未来这些"其他 因素"真的出现（我对此表示怀疑！），再加息即可。但不要说你认为未来某个时候会出现通胀，因为 现在并没有——但如果真的出现 ...

5. 认为破坏福尔多是必要的——据CBS报道，多位消息人士称，特朗普已经了解了轰炸伊朗最安全的核 设施福尔多的利弊，他的想法是，由于在相对较短的时间内生产武器的风险，破坏该设施是必要的。 6. 如期参加北约峰会——美国白宫表示，特朗普特将于当地时间下周一早上离开华盛顿特区，参加下周 在荷兰举行的北约峰会。 7. 监测油价——在被问及油价时，白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示，美国一直在尽力压低油价，特朗普正在权 衡各种因素并监测油价。 8. 抨击华尔街日报——特朗普发文称，《华尔街日报》根本不知道我对于伊朗问题的想法是什么。此前 该报曝猛料，称特朗普已批准袭击伊朗的方案，但尚未下达最终攻击令。 金十数据整理：特朗普过去24小时都忙了什么？（2025-06-20） 1. 批鲍威尔是"美国耻辱"——特朗普发文表示，"太迟先生"鲍威尔让我们的国家损失了数千亿美元。我 们的利率本应该降低2.5个百分点（250个基点），我们的通胀率很低！"太迟先生"是美国的耻辱！ 2. TikTok法案再延期——美国总统特朗普19日签署行政令，将TikTok"不卖就禁用"法案执行宽限期再延 长90天。 3. 计划两周内决定对伊朗的行动——白宫新闻 ...

Economic Overview - The economic outlook has slightly deteriorated, with growth rate forecasts down by 0.3 percentage points and unemployment rate up by 0.1 percentage points compared to March predictions [2] - The PCE and core PCE inflation forecasts have been raised by 0.3 percentage points, with tariffs expected to push prices higher this year [2] Policy Insights - The dot plot indicates a "bimodal distribution" within the Federal Reserve, with one faction focused on the impact of tariffs on prices and another concerned about the economic growth implications [4] - Seven officials predict no rate cuts in 2025, while two expect only one cut this year, and eight anticipate two cuts [4] - Powell emphasized the uncertainty in the economic outlook and stated that no official can make a clear prediction on interest rate movements under current conditions [3][4] Market Strategy - The market reacted moderately to the Fed's meeting, with a neutral trading return at the close [5] - The OIS curve suggests a 48 basis point reduction in rates by 2025, approximately two cuts [5] - U.S. Treasury yields showed minimal changes, with the 2-year yield at 3.94%, 5-year at 3.99%, 10-year at 4.39%, and 30-year at 4.89% [5] - The dollar index increased by 0.06% to 98.878, with the offshore RMB exchange rate stabilizing around 7.19 [6] - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices showed little movement, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7] - The 10-year yield above 4.5% and 5-year yield above 4.1% are seen as suitable entry points, with potential for a technical rebound in the dollar providing selling opportunities [7]

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（6月20日） 非美主要货币： 1. 日本央行行长植田和男：如果经济和物价如预期般改善，预计将继续加息以应对经济状况。日本的实 际利率明显偏低。 2. 英镑：①英国央行将政策利率维持在4.25%不变，符合市场预期，投票比例显示内部分歧加大；②英 国央行行长贝利：利率将"逐步下降"。关于我们预期利率将逐步下降的声明并不代表对八月份的（降 息）预测。副行长隆巴尔代利：服务业通胀显示出相当顽固的迹象。③交易员提高对英国央行8月降息 的押注，预计降息可能性达80%，同时预计央行今年还会再降息50个基点。 3. 欧元：①管委维勒鲁瓦：如果未来六个月内关键利率发生变动，降息是最有可能的。如有必要，不必 强制采取逐步推进的方式；等待影响充分显现过久可能导致重大损失。②管委内格尔：我们可以采取更 多措施以吸引投资者对欧元的兴趣。欧元有可能利用当前局势，成为避险货币。我们目前已进入货币政 策的中性区间。 为之的减速。 7. 挪威央行降息25个基点至4.25%，市场预期维持不变。挪威央行：经济前景不确定，但如果经济大致 按照目前的预测发展，政策利率将在2025年期间进一步降低。预测利率在20 ...