Market Overview - The XJO index remains up 10% year-to-date, despite fluctuations around the 9,000 points level, with a recent climb attributed to a strong performance in the real estate sector following weak jobs data [1] - Speculation of a potential RBA rate cut in November is influencing investor sentiment, although inflation concerns were also highlighted by the RBA [2] Sector Performance - The private data centre sector saw a significant $70 billion deal, contributing to positive market sentiment, particularly benefiting Goodman Group, which experienced a more than 3% increase [2] - Rare earth stocks saw a surge earlier in the week but experienced a pullback as traders took profits, indicating a volatile trading environment [3] Company Highlights - Meeka Metals reported higher-than-expected gold production for the September quarter and discovered gold in a new drilling area, leading to a rise in its stock price [4] - Bougainville Copper continued to gain momentum following a positive quarterly production update, with recent legal challenges potentially resolved [4] - FireFly Metals also saw gains due to favorable drilling results in its copper-gold project in Canada [5] Declining Stocks - American Rare Earths experienced a decline as the excitement from recent critical mineral news from China faded, prompting traders to cash in [5] - Iluka Resources faced a pullback, but the decline was less severe due to its ongoing production activities [6] - Dateline Resources also fell back, reflecting volatility linked to its previous mention by a high-profile figure [6]

Core Insights - Bank Pekao has revised Poland's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 4.0% to 3.6% while increasing the 2026 forecast from 3.7% to 4.0% [1] - Economists predict that economic growth will accelerate in the third quarter of 2025, with an expected year-on-year growth of approximately 4% [1] - The likelihood of achieving an average growth rate of 4% this year is considered low [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate is expected to remain near the inflation target for an extended period, projected to stay below 3% year-on-year by the end of 2025 [1] - Core inflation, although on a downward trend, is anticipated to remain at a high level due to ongoing cost pressures in the service sector [1] Interest Rates - The report forecasts a further decrease in interest rates by 100 basis points in 2026, targeting a rate of 3.5% [1]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to stop quantitative tightening in a matter of months to maintain liquidity in money markets [2][3] - There is uncertainty regarding the number of rate cuts, with discussions leaning towards two quarter-point hikes this year and more potential changes next year depending on personnel [4][3] - Recent bankruptcies in the auto sector raise concerns about systemic risks, although the current economic expansion has not shown significant deterioration in balance sheets [5][7][8] 分组2 - The current economic environment is characterized by a long stretch of risk-taking by investors, which could lead to mistakes during hot market conditions [6][7] - The expansion phase is not expected to end simply due to age, and the economy is described as being more resilient than in previous cycles [10][8] - The macro economy is likely to absorb sector-specific shocks, such as those from government shutdowns, due to the larger size of the private sector [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - Boston Fed President Susan Collins emphasizes the need for further normalization of monetary policy while maintaining a mildly restrictive stance despite potential rate cuts [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Collins identifies inflation as primarily influenced by tariffs and expresses confidence in solid growth despite challenges posed by these tariffs and uncertainty [2]. - There are concerns regarding a broad-based slowdown in hiring, which raises risks of a significant drop in labor demand and has been accompanied by notable declines in job gains and a rise in unemployment [2]. Market Expectations - The market has fully priced in two rate cuts following dovish comments from the Fed Chair regarding the outlook for interest rates and the balance sheet [3]. - There is currently a 51% probability of a third continuous rate cut anticipated in January, indicating fluctuating market sentiment on this issue [3].

Market Overview - The market is experiencing downward pressure due to renewed tensions between the US and China, with China targeting US subsidiaries, leading to concerns about escalation risks [1][2] - Despite solid earnings reports from banks and companies like Domino's Pizza and AMD, the market is starting the day heavy [5][9] Bank Earnings - Major banks such as JP Morgan reported strong earnings, with JP Morgan's trading revenue reaching nearly $9 billion, indicating solid performance across the sector [7][10] - However, the overall market reaction has been mixed, with some banks like Goldman Sachs seeing declines, while Wells Fargo performed better [9][10] - Citigroup reported record third-quarter revenues across all business segments, showcasing strong growth despite high expectations [10] Economic Indicators - The 10-year yield is approaching 4.03%, which may influence lower inflation and make stocks more attractive [5][14] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point interest rate cut, with expectations of weaker labor market data influencing this decision [14][15] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing negotiations between the US and China are affecting market sentiment, with the potential for a meeting between Xi Jinping and President Trump being uncertain [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions are consistently weighing on market performance, highlighting the importance of monitoring these developments [6]

Key Points The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled to conclude on Wednesday, Oct. 29. The Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates by 0.25%. Even if the rate cut happens as expected, there are a few other reasons why the stock market could be volatile on that day. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › There's no way to know for sure when the stock market is going to have a big day. Sometimes, there is unexpected news released in the morning or even during the trad ...

Market Overview - International gold prices rose again on October 10, with an opening price of $4014.43 per ounce, a high of $4022.87, a low of $3944.70, and a closing price of $3997.96 [1] Economic and Political News - Trump announced that federal government layoffs have begun, primarily affecting Democratic employees, with approximately 4200 workers from various departments including the Treasury, Education, Health and Human Services, Commerce, and Homeland Security [2] - Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene expressed skepticism about the government "shutdown" benefiting Republicans in the midterm elections, highlighting the ongoing inflation crisis and its impact on Americans' livelihoods [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the September CPI report on October 24 at 8:30 AM [2] Geopolitical Tensions - Afghanistan's Defense Ministry stated that it has conducted retaliatory actions against Pakistan due to repeated airspace violations, resulting in the deaths of 12 Pakistani soldiers [2] - Trump mentioned the potential provision of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine if the conflict remains unresolved, and commented on the ongoing war between Pakistan and Afghanistan [3] Negotiations and Agreements - Hamas political bureau member Hossam Badran indicated that the second phase of the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza involves complex factors and may take longer, emphasizing the need for Palestinian unity before progress can be made [4] - The second phase of negotiations includes discussions on disarmament of Hamas and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with significant challenges anticipated [4] Gold Market Insights - The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 3.72 tons, bringing the total to 1017.16 tons [4] - According to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 2.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 97.8% [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a low of $3958 and a high of $4022, closing at $4012, indicating a bullish trend [6] - Short-term indicators suggest a strong demand for adjustments in gold prices, with a cautious approach recommended for trading strategies [6]

2025 10/4 1 国际宏观 市场回顾 美联储10月降息25个基点概率为97.8% 现货黄金升破4060美元/盎司 周一早盘美股股指期货全面反弹 加密货币市场回暖 机 构 观点 新 3 社 主管主办 上海診券系 (2)中国证券网 【国际宏观】 10月13日，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为2.2%，降息25个基点的概率为97.8%。美联储12月维持利率不变概率为0%，累计降 息25个基点的概率为2.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为96.7%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间12日，美国总统特朗普表示，若俄乌冲突无法解决，他可能会向乌克兰提供"战斧"导弹。 高盛:特朗普若表态愿意讨论健康议题, 民主党很可能会接受并同意至少短期重新 开放政府 -周前瞻 IMF和世界银行秋季年会将于北京时间 10月13日至18日召开 美股第三季度财报季将在本周拉开大幕 【市场回顾】 周一早盘，黄金继续上涨。伦敦现货黄金开盘后快速拉升，最高逼近4060.05美元/盎司，再创新高；COMEX黄金期货开盘后一路走高，一度上冲至4078.1 美元/盎司，离历史高点仅一步之遥。上周五，伦敦现货黄金收于4017美元/盎司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is perceived to be lacking critical economic data due to the recent government shutdown, which raises concerns about its decision-making capabilities regarding interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Data and Fed's Awareness - The Fed has been criticized for being unaware of key economic indicators, such as the lack of real tariff inflation and the job creation figures under President Trump, which reportedly added 1.9 million jobs for native-born workers [2][3]. - The third quarter GDP is projected to be 4%, while the second quarter GDP was revised upwards to 3.8%, indicating a stronger economic performance than previously thought [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Policy Debate - There is a division among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some advocating for more cuts while others caution against the risks involved [4]. - Fed President Mary Daly and Governor Steven Myron agree that current interest rates are too high and need to be lowered to support economic growth, contrasting with other board members who are more cautious [5][6]. Group 3: Impact of High Interest Rates - High interest rates are seen as detrimental to the economy, particularly affecting the housing market by limiting builders' access to loans, which in turn restricts new housing supply and contributes to inflation [8]. - Lowering interest rates is argued to potentially increase housing supply, lower home prices, and ultimately reduce inflation, benefiting the broader economy [8].

Market Overview - In the primary market, a total of 7 offshore bonds were issued by Chinese entities from October 6 to October 10, including 5 USD bonds and 2 HKD bonds, with issuance sizes of USD 1.7 million and HKD 500 million respectively. All bonds were issued via direct issuance [1] - The largest single issuance in the USD corporate bond market this week was USD 0.5 million by the International Finance Corporation, with the highest coupon rate at 4.5% also from the same issuer [1] Secondary Market Insights - The yield on Chinese USD bonds mostly increased this week. As of October 10, the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD bond composite index rose by 0.22% to 250.46, while the investment-grade USD bond index increased by 0.25% to 242.9. The high-yield USD bond index decreased by 0.05% to 245.55. The real estate USD bond index fell by 0.14% to 187.22, while the city investment USD bond index rose by 0.08% to 152.35, and the financial USD bond index increased by 0.12% to 290.03 [2] Benchmark Spread - As of October 10, the spread between the 10-year benchmark government bonds of China and the US narrowed to 228.02 basis points, a decrease of 8.47 basis points from the previous week [3] Domestic News - A one-stop account opening platform for foreign institutions in the interbank bond market was launched for trial operation on October 9, as per the People's Bank of China [5] - The Central Securities Depository and Clearing Company, in collaboration with the Interbank Lending Center, launched a centralized bond lending business, with 78 institutions participating in the first batch [6] - The Hong Kong government plans to issue HKD 16.75 billion and RMB 11 billion in bonds over the next six months, with a tentative schedule for six bidding sessions [7] Overseas News - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated support for further interest rate cuts but emphasized the need for caution due to mixed economic signals, suggesting a potential 25 basis point cut in each of the remaining two meetings this year [9] Offshore Debt Alerts - Fantasia Holdings announced that the hearing for its offshore debt restructuring plan is scheduled for January 16, 2026 [10] - Poly Developments announced that 4.512 billion shares will be transferred without compensation to Poly Group, making it the controlling shareholder [11] - Aoyuan Meigu's first temporary creditors' meeting is set to be held on October 25, 2025 [12]