Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist. Treasury bond futures are under both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there are still medium - and long - term easing expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded yesterday. In the medium and long term, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented next year, and with a strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the monetary policy environment will be loose, and there is an expectation of a cut in policy interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, there is a lack of short - term necessity for interest rate cuts, and the concentrated supply of treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year will bring certain pressure, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures in the short term [5]

新华财经纽约12月10日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价 10日上涨22.1美元，收于每盎司4258.3美元，涨幅为0.52%。 美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至 3.5%至3.75%之间。 加拿大央行10日维持2.25%利率不变，符合市场预期。加拿大央行指出，第三季度经济增长强劲、通胀 趋于缓和以及劳动力市场改善，是当前利率暂时适宜的原因。加拿大利率决定宣布后，加拿大元兑美元 大幅下跌。 世界黄金协会数据显示，波兰央行11月份购入14吨黄金，目前黄金总持有量为544吨，占其黄金储备总 量的27%。巴西当月是第二大黄金买家，官方黄金储备增加了11吨，这也是巴西连续第三个月购入黄 金。 美联储当日声明并未提供太多前瞻性指引。"现有指标显示，经济活动正以温和的速度扩张。今年以 来，就业增长有所放缓，失业率在9月份略有上升。近期指标也与这些趋势相符。通胀率自年初以来有 所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。" 美联储预计明年GDP将增长2.3%，高于9月份预测的1.8%。预计明年失业率将升至4.4%，与9月份的预 测持平； ...

一、贵金属期货 受美联储货币政策宽松预期及美元走弱推动，贵金属期货价格显著上涨。纽约期金突破4260美元/盎 司，日内涨0.57%[1]；此前一度突破4250美元/盎司，日内涨幅达0.40%[2]。 现货黄金同步走高，突破4230美元/盎司，日内涨0.53%[3]，盘中曾触及4220美元/盎司，涨幅0.38% [4]。 高盛表示，其对2026年末每盎司4900美元的黄金价格预测有显著上调空间[5]。 来源：喜娜AI 美国众议院以312票赞成、112票反对通过9010亿美元《国防授权法案》，下一步将提交参议院审议 [11]。 特朗普政府在委内瑞拉海岸附近扣押一艘油轮，总统特朗普表示"想必我们会留下委内瑞拉油轮上的石 油"[12][13]。 美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，原油库存减少181万桶[14]。 三、金融期货 二、宏观与市场影响 美联储宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%区间，为年内连续第三次降息，累计降息75个基点 [6]。 会议纪要显示，19位官员对2026年降息路径存在分歧：7位反对降息，4位支持降息25基点，4位支持降 息50基点，2位支持降息75基点，1位支持降息100基点， ...

12月11日，香港金管局将基准利率下调25个基点至4.0%，隔夜美联储降息25个基点。 ...

Back to Market on Close. I'm Marley Caden here in Chicago alongside Sam Bodis at the New York Stock Exchange. We'll close out our show with some final thoughts on the session today.Of course, it was Fed day. We finally got our rate cut decision from the Federal Reserve and it was 25 basis points that the market had predicted. The decision was split as expected with the FOMC signaling a tougher road ahead for further reductions.The closely watched dot plot indicated just one cut in 2026 and another in 2027. ...

The Federal Reserve left the door open to more rate cuts in a growing economy and that reawakened enthusiasm on Wall Street, taking stocks higher.The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, close to its previous high in October. The Dow rose 498 points, or 1.1%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Both the S&P 500 and Dow had been down for two consecutive trading days.This was the best Fed Day for the Dow since December 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data. ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 0.25%, bringing it to a target range of 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut of 2025 following three cuts in 2024 as inflation eased [1][8] - The Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) is currently divided, with three voting members dissenting on the rate cut decision, indicating a rare level of disagreement among the committee [2][3] - Future rate cuts may be challenging, as the FOMC's new statement suggests that any additional cuts will be data-dependent, and the median expectation is for only one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027 [4][5] Group 2 - The stock market is rallying due to the Fed's less hawkish tone in its statement and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, which alleviated investor fears [6] - Investors appear skeptical of the Fed's prediction of just one rate cut in 2026, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a median expectation for two rate cuts and a 69% chance of at least two cuts next year [7][8] - Recent significant weakening in economic data and the upcoming change in Fed leadership may also influence market expectations and sentiment [9]

Betting markets and brokerages have projected a third interest rate cut this year from the Fed.The Federal Reserve on Wednesday opted to cut interest rates, the third-straight vote in favor of a reduction, as Wall Street anticipated a cautious approach to monetary policy from the central bank next year.The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 in favor of lowering interest rates by a quarter-point to between 3.5% and 3.75%, down from the 3.75% and 4% range the central bank approved during the FOMC’s Octob ...

The Federal Reserve reducing interest rates by an expected quarter point to a new range of 3.5% to 3.75%. There were three descents, the first time that's happened since September 2019. Two were against the cut, including Chicago Fed President Austin Goulby along with um Kansas City Fed President Jeff Smith.His second descent in a row. Also another disscent for a 50 basis point cut from new Fed governor on loan from the administration Steven Myron. To recap, the vote was nine for cutting a quarter, two agai ...

Group 1: Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis - BTC is currently trading down slightly at the $92k level, having touched $94k yesterday, with strong support at $92k [1] - ETF flows for BTC were low yesterday, with a net inflow of $40 million across all BTC ETFs [1] - Funding rates on perpetual futures have fallen to nearly flat levels as traders await the outcome of the FOMC meeting [1] Group 2: Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis - ETH is defending the $3.3k level since crossing it on December 9th, indicating renewed interest and strength [2] - ETH ETFs saw significant inflows of $117 million yesterday, reflecting retail interest in the cryptocurrency [2] - Funding rates for ETH have decreased from previous highs, now trading at around 4-6% annualized on major exchanges [2]