现在楼市什么情况呢？应该说购房者是最有话语权的，因为他们可以用脚投票，想不想买房或者说会不会付出行动，取决于他们的预期。多听听他们的声 音，或许能感知房地产市场的未来趋势。实话实说，今年以来，市场在逐步回稳，这是去年各种利好政策叠加的效应，但是二季度似乎也有再次掉头的趋 势。所以，央行又是怎么通过调查来出报告的呢？ 我们看看报告内容，过半数企业家和银行家认为当前宏观经济表现平稳正常，对宏观经济整体持中性偏谨慎态度。对三季度宏观经济热度的预期有所升温。 按照以往的经验，每个季度的央行调查报告会在季度结束后一个月出，但这几年不太准了，7月25日，央行网站同时发布了2025年第一季度和第二季度的城 镇储户问卷调查报告。 对于房价的调查，也就是说大家对第三季度的房价预期显示，8.9%的居民预期"上涨"，56.8%的居民预期"基本不变"，21.7%的居民预期"下降"，12.7%的 居民"看不准"。 报告跟过去相比有一些调整，似乎不再提未来三个月居民打算买房的比例了。对于未来三个月准备增加支出的项目，居民选择的前五位依次为：旅游 (32.1%)、教育(31.9%)、医疗保健(29.3%)、社交文化和娱乐(24.0%)、大 ...

Economic Overview - China's GDP exceeded 66 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for the annual target of around 5% [1][4] - The economy showed resilience with a 5.2% growth in Q2, supported by unexpected export performance and a series of incremental policies that boosted consumption [1][4] Export Performance - Exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year in the first half, outperforming expectations despite pressures from U.S. tariffs, indicating a shift towards a more competitive and innovative export structure [6][4] - The export sector is expected to face challenges in the second half due to uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations, but the overall impact may be less severe than anticipated [6][4] Investment Trends - Investment growth has slowed, with declines in real estate and infrastructure investments, necessitating stronger policy support to stabilize investment levels [7][4] - Industrial profits and profit margins have decreased compared to the previous year, indicating a need for enhanced investment policies [7][4] Consumption Outlook - Consumption is projected to maintain steady growth, supported by policies such as the 1.38 billion yuan "old-for-new" subsidy and potential increases in social security and income [7][4] - The long-term strategy for boosting consumption involves addressing supply bottlenecks and improving income distribution [15][4] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy are essential to stimulate demand and support economic recovery [10][4] - The broad fiscal expenditure increased by 8.9% year-on-year in the first half, contributing significantly to economic growth [10][4] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is experiencing increased sales area and sales volume declines, necessitating stronger measures to stabilize the market [16][4] - Policies aimed at improving liquidity for real estate developers and addressing debt issues are expected to be introduced in the second half [17][4] Anti-"Involution" Measures - Efforts to combat "involution" in competitive sectors are crucial for restoring market equilibrium and improving investment returns [18][4] - Regulatory measures are needed to prevent irrational pricing behaviors and ensure fair competition in the market [19][4]

Core Viewpoint - The report by JLL highlights the recovery and stabilization of the real estate market in the Greater Bay Area's mainland cities, driven by policy easing and financial support for developers [1][3]. Residential Market Summary - In the first quarter, the overall sales figures and prices of new residential properties performed well, but the market sentiment weakened in April due to the instability caused by the trade war, leading to a cautious buyer attitude [3][4]. - Overall new residential sales in the Greater Bay Area increased by 3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [3]. - The average monthly new residential transactions are expected to reach 27,000 to 28,000 in the second half, with an annual total projected at around 300,000 units; however, there is a potential price decline of up to 5% for the year [4]. Commercial Property Investment Summary - The attitude of property owners has shifted to a more pragmatic approach, with industrial logistics transactions accounting for over 50% of the market in the first half of 2025, including significant deals in large logistics asset packages [3][5]. - The community commercial sector is gaining traction, with stable rental yield projects attracting investor interest, suggesting a potential increase in quality commercial asset transactions in the second half of the year [3][5]. - The logistics and commercial sectors are expected to outperform other segments, driven by strong demand from the expanding cross-border e-commerce market [4][5]. Market Outlook - The easing of demand-side policies and the construction of quality housing are anticipated to release pent-up demand for both rigid and improved housing [3]. - The implementation of special bond storage and acquisition of residential properties is expected to alleviate financial pressures on developers and promote a balance between supply and demand in the real estate market [3]. - Despite the anticipated recovery, market confidence is expected to take time to restore, with ongoing uncertainties likely to maintain a cautious atmosphere into the third quarter [4].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the real estate chain is showing signs of stabilization, with policies since 2025 continuing a loose tone that has been in place since 2024, suggesting a gradual bottoming out of the real estate fundamentals [1][34] - Cement demand is expected to decline at a slower rate in 2025, with industry awareness of price stability and profit protection increasing, indicating a potential profit turning point [1][34] - The consumption building materials sector is seeing an increase in the proportion of existing stock, with improved second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus expected to accelerate demand for renovations [1][3] Group 2 - Non-traditional building materials are experiencing higher overall demand, particularly in fiberglass, where downstream demand from wind power and thermoplastics remains strong, and competition is expected to ease [2][3] - The civil explosives sector is benefiting from increased investment in mining and water conservancy, leading to sustained demand growth, with major companies accelerating mergers and acquisitions [2][3] - Traditional refractory materials are facing weak downstream demand, but leading companies are expanding into new markets, such as magnesium salt chemicals and wet metallurgy, which are expected to contribute significantly to profits [2][3] Group 3 - The investment focus for traditional chains is on structural and supply aspects, while non-traditional chains are centered on downstream growth opportunities [3][4] - In the cement sector, supply-side reforms are accelerating, with a potential reduction in actual capacity to below 180 million tons in the medium to long term [3][4] - The consumption building materials sector is witnessing a price competition trend easing, with a focus on leading companies in the consumer market [3][4] Group 4 - The fiberglass segment is highlighted as a market focus, with significant demand expected for low dielectric and low expansion electronic fabrics, particularly in communication infrastructure and semiconductor packaging [4][3] - The civil explosives market in Xinjiang is projected to grow significantly, with existing demand estimated at 67.6 million tons, potentially reaching close to one million tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven demand in the photovoltaic glass sector, awaiting improvements in market conditions [4][3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to show weakness in fundamentals, with June's absolute return at 0.9% and relative return to the CSI 300 at -1.6% [2][11] - New home sales in June saw a month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decline, indicating ongoing market challenges [12][13] - The report highlights four main investment themes: stable fundamentals in key cities, breakthrough small and efficient companies, strategic changes in operations, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the second-hand market recovery [2] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In June, new home sales in 40 cities reached 1,198.9 million square meters, up 14.3% month-on-month but down 11.6% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 1.6% for the first half of the year [12][15] - First-tier cities showed a mixed performance, with June sales up 11.8% month-on-month but down 8.5% year-on-year [13][14] - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month increase of 16.2% but a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [13][14] - Third and fourth-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase of 12.7% but a year-on-year decline of 21.2% [13][14] Second-Hand Home Sales - June's second-hand home sales in 18 cities remained flat month-on-month but fell 3.7% year-on-year, marking a shift from positive growth [12][13] - First-tier cities showed positive growth, while second and third-tier cities experienced declines [12][13] Inventory and Absorption - New home inventory decreased by 0.6% month-on-month and 16.8% year-on-year, with an overall absorption cycle of 17.2 months [12][13] Land Market - The land market showed a "quality over quantity" trend in the first half of the year, with June's average land premium rate at 5.1%, down 0.2% month-on-month but up 3.0% year-on-year [12][13] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a 21.5% year-on-year decline in sales for June, while land acquisition amounts surged by 57.0% year-on-year [12][13] - Financing in the real estate sector increased, with a total issuance of 481 billion yuan in June, up 16% year-on-year [12][13] Policy Environment - The State Council emphasized stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a proactive approach to address market fluctuations [12][13]

2025年以来，整体房地产市场延续"止跌回稳"的态势，逐月来看，1-2月受春节假期影响供求季节性回落，但同比正增，3-4月迎来一波"小阳春"，随后5-6 月市场走势趋稳，即没有出现3月供求两旺的火爆行情，也不像去年同期持续下行，整体行情冷暖相间，相对稳定。 目前7月已过半月有余，从典型城市平均去化和热度来看，在供应不足及季节性回落双重影响下，市场动能明显不足，北京、上海、深圳、杭州等热点城 市市场热度也出现了高位回落。 近年来各地对于新增宅地供给规模的有效控制，使得2025年房地产市场已经全面进入供小于求的新阶段。在控制新增宅地规模、促进库存下降的另一面， 则是优质新增供给规模的不足，导致行业成交规模的稳定性难以保证。 基于6月份以来国务院、发改委、央行、财政部、统计局等中央部委多次明确"加力稳市场"的政策信号来看，2025年下半年房地产将迎来更多稳市场政策 的全面落地，加快构建发展新模式，助力行业朝着止跌回稳的方向继续迈进。 7月上半月30城项目 平均去化率30% CRIC监测数据显示，全国重点30城项目，2025年7月上半月成交面积达253.2万平方米，与去年同期下降35%。一线跌幅小于二线小于三四线，市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China continues to face significant challenges, with declining transaction volumes and expanding price drops, indicating a need for new policy adjustments to stabilize the market [1][6][26]. Group 1: Market Performance - National real estate development investment growth rate decreased by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with the decline expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous five months [4]. - The funding received by real estate development companies fell by 6.2% year-on-year, with a decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous period [4]. - The real estate development prosperity index also decreased by 0.11 compared to the previous period [4]. - The sales area and sales revenue of newly built commercial housing also saw an increase in their decline, with sales area dropping from -2.9% to -3.5% and sales revenue from -3.8% to -5.5% [4]. Group 2: Price Trends - In June 2025, 14 cities saw new home prices increase month-on-month, while 56 cities experienced price declines, marking the highest number of cities with price drops in nearly eight months [10]. - The second-hand housing market shows a more pronounced downward trend, with only one city, Xining, reporting price increases in June, while the remaining 69 cities experienced price declines [13]. - First-tier cities also showed a downward trend in housing prices, with only Shanghai reporting a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 6% [16]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The current market downturn is seen as a nationwide issue, highlighting the urgent need for policy interventions to stabilize the market [26]. - The National Bureau of Statistics has indicated that the decline in real estate sales area and revenue necessitates a stronger push to stabilize the market [26]. - Expectations are growing for significant policy measures to be implemented in the third quarter to address the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [27].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization and recovery in the first half of 2025, driven by government efforts to halt the decline and promote a healthy market environment [1][3][9]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a significant narrowing of the decline by 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][4]. - The sales revenue of new commercial housing fell by 5.5% year-on-year, also showing a substantial narrowing of the decline by 19.5 percentage points compared to last year [1][4]. - The transaction volume of second-hand housing has increased compared to the same period last year, indicating active trading [1]. Price Trends - In June 2025, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.3%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - The average sales price of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month in June, consistent with the previous month [14]. Market Dynamics - The new housing market is gradually stabilizing, with first-tier cities showing strong performance in new home transactions, such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, which saw year-on-year increases of 11.9%, 42%, and nearly 17% respectively [5]. - The average sales area of new commercial housing in June was 10,536 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 49.38% [6]. - The inventory reduction efforts have been effective, with the unsold housing area decreasing by 479 million square meters by the end of June, marking four consecutive months of decline [6]. Policy Support - The government is expected to intensify efforts to stabilize the real estate market, with recent meetings emphasizing the need for stronger measures [9][11]. - Core cities have begun optimizing real estate policies, such as improving housing fund loan policies to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers [10]. Second-hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a rise in transaction volume, but prices are under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 3.0% in first-tier cities from June last year [16][20]. - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is attributed to rising demand for housing upgrades and the need to sell existing homes [18][21]. - The overall transaction market for second-hand housing remains broad, with many provinces seeing transaction volumes surpassing those of new homes [20].

Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery amid overall economic stability, with a narrowing decline in sales and prices [1][2][9]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, a reduction of 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. - The sales amount for new commercial housing was 4.42 trillion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year, which is a narrowing of 19.5 percentage points from the previous year [2][12]. Price Trends - The price decline of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3 percentage points, with Shanghai experiencing a 6.0% increase [9]. - The overall price decline for new homes continues to narrow, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [9]. Inventory and Supply - The inventory pressure in the real estate sector is easing, with a decrease of 4.79 million square meters in unsold housing in June, marking four consecutive months of reduction [6][21]. - New construction starts showed a significant narrowing of decline, with a 20.0% decrease in the first half of 2025, indicating a potential bottoming out in supply [15]. Funding and Financial Health - Funding for real estate development improved, with total funds received by developers at 50.202 billion yuan, a 6.2% year-on-year decline, but the rate of decline is narrowing [12]. - Domestic loans increased by 0.6%, contrasting with a 6% decline in the previous year, reflecting improved financial conditions for developers [12]. Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to see more positive changes in the real estate sector, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting high-quality urban development [24]. - The implementation of land repurchase plans and special bonds is anticipated to improve inventory indicators, contributing to market stabilization [24].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in housing prices and sales, driven by targeted policies implemented by local governments [1][2]. Policy Effectiveness - The macroeconomic policies aimed at regulating the real estate market have shown significant effects, with a reduction in the year-on-year decline of new residential sales prices across first, second, and third-tier cities [1]. - In June, the year-on-year decline in new residential sales prices for first, second, and third-tier cities narrowed by 0.3, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [1]. - The year-on-year decline in second-hand residential sales prices in second and third-tier cities also narrowed, with reductions of 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [1]. Market Trends - The overall trend indicates a stabilization in the real estate market, with new housing sales area and value experiencing a narrowing decline, suggesting a potential bottoming out [2]. - In the first half of the year, the national new residential sales area decreased by 3.5%, a reduction of 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year, while sales value fell by 5.5%, narrowing by 19.5 percentage points [2]. - The transaction volume in the real estate market has improved, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, which has seen an increase compared to the previous year [2]. Future Support Policies - It is anticipated that real estate support policies will be further intensified in the second half of the year, focusing on increasing the acquisition of affordable housing and expediting loan disbursements for key projects [3]. - There is an expectation for a potential reduction in mortgage rates in line with policy interest rate adjustments [3].