研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 14 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 伴随市场对中美贸易紧张氛围好转预期的逐步消化，日内有色板块多震荡运 行，受益于库存去化超预期铝价继续冲高并站上 2 万整数关，主力报收于 20005， 上涨 1.27%，指数总持仓减少 1891 至 547335 手。现货上，绝对价格上涨后升贴 水承压，日内华东贴-20；中原贴-30，华南贴-95。现货进口亏损在-1300 元/吨 左右。氧化铝高位窄幅 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report - Date: May 13, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The progress of Sino-US tariff negotiations has improved the macro environment, leading to a general rise in asset prices. On the 12th, Shanghai aluminum opened higher and moved higher, with a gain of 1.66% to 19,910, approaching the 20,000 mark again. The overall supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum is limited, but the demand side may be affected by the seasonal decline in traditional off-season demand and the end of the PV rush installation period. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and caution should be exercised when considering the rebound space. It is recommended to adopt a short-selling strategy on rebounds. The increase in smelting profit after the rise in aluminum prices may lead to insufficient long positions from funds. Short hedging can participate at high levels [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The progress of Sino-US tariff negotiations improved the macro environment, and on the 12th, Shanghai aluminum opened higher and moved higher, with a gain of 1.66% to 19,910, approaching the 20,000 mark again. The total open interest of the index decreased by 22,204 to 549,226 lots. After the absolute price of spot aluminum rose, the premium/discount was under pressure. The spot import loss was around -1,300 yuan/ton [8] - **Alumina Situation**: Driven by the upward trend in the sector, alumina continued to rebound, but the increase was relatively limited and narrowed compared with the previous period. Considering the maintenance and production cuts plans of some alumina plants in May and the ramping up of some new production capacities, the reduction in overall operating capacity was not significant, and the oversupply trend was difficult to change. Caution should be exercised when considering the rebound space, and a short-selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [8] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Situation**: In May, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. Recent small-scale and轮番 maintenance had little impact on supply. Benefiting from the production capacity ceiling limit, the incremental space was limited, and the overall supply pressure was limited. On the demand side, May is the transition period between peak and off-peak seasons. It is expected that the seasonal decline in traditional off-season demand and the end of the PV rush installation period will have a negative impact. At the beginning of this week, inventories continued to decline, and attention should be paid to the sustainability and the extent of the demand drag [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: The increase in smelting profit after the rise in aluminum prices may lead to insufficient long positions from funds. Attention should be paid to the resistance performance at the integer mark. Short hedging can participate at high levels [8] 3.2 Industry News - **US-UK Trade Agreement**: On May 8, 2025, the US and the UK reached a bilateral trade agreement. The US will cancel the 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminum products and reduce the import tariff on UK cars from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 UK-made cars per year. In exchange, the UK will cancel the import tariff on US ethanol and open the beef market [9][10] - **Hydro and Nemak Cooperation**: Norwegian aluminum giant Hydro and global leading aluminum die-casting manufacturer Nemak will cooperate to develop decarbonized cast aluminum products for the automotive industry. The cooperation aims to increase the proportion of recycled aluminum at Hydro's Brazilian Alunorte refinery and gradually shift the energy structure to cleaner energy to significantly reduce the carbon footprint of aluminum castings. Hydro has supplied primary foundry aluminum alloy (PFA) to Nemak, with a carbon footprint of less than 4.0 kg of carbon dioxide per kg of aluminum, only 25% of the global average. According to the signed letter of intent, the carbon footprint will be further reduced by 25% [10] - **Guinea to Revoke EGA's Mining License**: According to Reuters on May 7, 2025, Guinea's government has initiated procedures to revoke the mining license of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in the country. EGA's exports and mining activities have been suspended by the government since October 2024. The mine covers an area of 690 square kilometers and has an estimated reserve of about 400 million tons of bauxite. This move reflects the increasing trend of resource countries in the region to strengthen control over minerals [10]

Group 1 - The international price of thermal coal is experiencing a sharp decline, with the spot price of high-quality coal at Newcastle, Australia, dropping to around $95 per ton, significantly lower than the peak of over $400 during the Ukraine crisis in 2022 [1][2] - China's focus on energy security has led to increased domestic coal production and relaxed import restrictions, resulting in a record domestic coal output of 4.76 billion tons in 2024, accounting for over 50% of global supply [2] - Despite the short-term market weakness, long-term futures markets are showing signs of price increases, with the October 2026 contract for Australian coal futures priced at around $126 per ton, 30% higher than recent contracts [2][3] Group 2 - The global decarbonization trend and financial institutions withdrawing investments are making new coal mine developments increasingly difficult, leading to a decrease in interest from mining companies [3] - The current low prices are negatively impacting the profitability of small and medium-sized mining operators, potentially accelerating coal mine closures [3] - Major players like Glencore are gaining market presence as competitors withdraw, with predictions that the average coal price over the next decade will be higher than in the past decade due to market concentration [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter revenue was $682 million, up 13% year over year, with growth in both segments [23] - Adjusted EBITDA was $130 million, also up 13% year over year, driven by robust growth in government operations [23] - Adjusted earnings per share increased to $0.91, a 20% rise compared to $0.76 last year [24] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $17 million, with capital expenditures at $33 million, or 4.9% of sales [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Government operations revenue grew by 14%, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $117 million and a margin of 21.1% [27] - Commercial operations revenue was $128 million, up 10% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $14 million and a margin of 10.9% [28] - The backlog for commercial operations reached a record $1.3 billion, up 39% from the previous quarter and 78% year over year [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. government continues to prioritize naval nuclear fleet and nuclear modernization, creating opportunities for BWXT [7][12] - In Canada, significant investments are being made in nuclear generation capacity, with potential new builds expanding to nearly 20 gigawatts [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - BWXT is focused on expanding its nuclear services portfolio and enhancing manufacturing capacity in North America [9] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on long-term investments in clean nuclear power and energy security [6] - The acquisition of Connectrix and expansion of the Cambridge manufacturing plant are part of the strategy to meet growing customer demand [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to weather macroeconomic disruptions due to long-cycle contracts and a strong balance sheet [10] - The administration's focus on nuclear energy and shipbuilding is seen as a positive for future growth [46] - Management anticipates a modest growth outlook for government operations in 2025, with a revenue CAGR of 3% to 5% in the naval propulsion segment [12] Other Important Information - The company completed the acquisition of AOT and is actively pursuing opportunities in the special materials sector [14] - BWXT is involved in the Advanced Nuclear Power for Installations Program, which aims to provide energy security for U.S. military bases [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Negative EACs impact on government operations - Management confirmed that negative EACs were split between commercial and government operations, with recovery expected in the second half of the year [35][36] Question: Funding opportunities from recent appropriations - Management indicated limited direct funding opportunities from the continuing resolution but expressed optimism about potential benefits from the reconciliation bill [39][40] Question: Updates on the reconciliation package and shipbuilding - Management noted funding for defense enrichment and nuclear reactors in the reconciliation bill, with a positive outlook for nuclear shipbuilding [44][46] Question: Impact of raw material costs on commercial operations - Management acknowledged that raw material cost issues would affect margins in the first half of the year but expected recovery in the second half [48][49] Question: Timeline for Moly approval and contracting - Management hopes for approval in 2025 but acknowledged potential delays into early 2026 [56][57] Question: Updates on the enrichment contract and pilot program - Management detailed the conceptual stage of the pilot plant and the complexities of using unobligated materials for enrichment [65][68] Question: BWXT's entry into SPR management - Management highlighted their experience and qualifications as key factors in winning the SPR management contract [99][100] Question: Progress on Actinium-225 production - Management confirmed they remain the largest commercial producer of Actinium-225 and are exploring multiple production modalities [102][104]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter revenue was $682 million, up 13% year over year, with growth in both segments [21] - Adjusted EBITDA was $130 million, also up 13% year over year, driven by robust growth in government operations [21] - Adjusted earnings per share increased to $0.91, a 20% rise compared to $0.76 last year [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Government operations saw a revenue increase of 14%, driven by naval propulsion and special materials [24] - Commercial operations revenue was $128 million, up 10% year over year, led by growth in medical and commercial power [25] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for government operations was 21.1%, while commercial operations saw a margin of 10.9%, down 100 basis points due to unfavorable mix and cost absorption [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The commercial operations backlog reached a record $1.3 billion, up 39% from the previous quarter and 78% year over year [15] - The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission authorized the construction of the first BWRX 300 unit, marking a significant milestone for North America's first SMR project [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its nuclear services portfolio and enhancing its manufacturing capacity in North America [7][17] - BWXT is positioned to benefit from long-term investments in nuclear technologies driven by decarbonization and increasing electricity demand [5][6] - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in government contracts, particularly in energy security and environmental restoration projects [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to weather macroeconomic disruptions due to long-cycle contracts and a strong balance sheet [8] - The administration's focus on naval nuclear fleet and nuclear modernization is expected to support a revenue CAGR of 3% to 5% in the government operations segment [11] - The market for nuclear medicine is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by increasing volumes of SPECT and PET scanning procedures [20] Other Important Information - Free cash flow for the quarter was $17 million, with capital expenditures at $33 million, or 4.9% of sales [21][23] - The company expects full-year free cash flow to be between $265 million and $285 million [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Were the negative EACs all at government operations? - The negative EACs were about half from commercial operations and half from government operations, with specific impacts noted in the fuel business [32][33] Question: Do you see BWXT as in line to get any of the funding from the recent appropriations? - There is optimism regarding potential funding from the reconciliation bill, particularly for domestic defense enrichment and DoD nuclear reactors [36][42] Question: Can you provide an update on the Actinium-225 effort? - The company remains the largest commercial producer of Actinium-225 and is exploring multiple production modalities [98] Question: What is the status of the enrichment contract and pilot program? - The pilot program is in the conceptual stage, focusing on designing a pilot plant for centrifuge-type enrichment technology [62][63] Question: How is the company managing the zirconium cost impact? - The company has strong relationships with customers that allow for a path through mechanism to mitigate unforeseen risks related to raw material costs [89]

Transaction Summary - CMB.TECH and Golden Ocean propose a stock-for-stock merger, with CMB.TECH as the surviving entity[16] - Post-merger, CMB.TECH shareholders are expected to own approximately 70% and Golden Ocean shareholders 30% (or 67% and 33% excluding treasury shares)[19] - Golden Ocean shareholders are slated to receive 0.95 CMB.TECH shares for each Golden Ocean share, based on a price of $15.23 per share for CMBT and $14.49 per share for GOGL[19] - The combined entity will operate as CMB.TECH NV, headquartered in Belgium, with a combined market capitalization of approximately $3.2 billion and a free float of around 38.4% (excluding treasury shares)[19] Company Profile & Financials - CMB.TECH has a fleet of 162 vessels with an average age of 4.1 years, including conventional, dual fuel hydrogen, and ammonia-ready vessels[21] - Golden Ocean has 91 vessels with an average age of 8.2 years, with a cash breakeven of $13,750 per day per vessel and a TCE in 2024 of $22,680[31] - Golden Ocean's FY 2024 net income was $223.2 million, with earnings per share of $1.12 and a dividend of $1.05 per share[34] - The pro-forma company has a contract backlog of $3 billion and a fair market value of $11.1 billion[37] Market & Strategy - The combined company aims to create diverse, sustainable, and high-quality cash flows, attract top talent, and reward shareholders[50] - The combined fair market value of the fleet is approximately $11.1 billion[57] - The combined entity will have more than 250 modern vessels at the forefront of decarbonization[81]

日本首相石破茂（最 4月28日，日本首相石破茂在越南主席府与越南总理范明政举行了会谈。他表示，日本政府和民 间将在海上风力发电和电网建设计划等越南脱碳项目上投入最多200亿美元。考虑到美国的关税 措施，双方确认了自由贸易体制的重要性。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 石破茂在联合记者会上表示："世界经济的不确定性增加，对东南亚地区的影响也令人担忧。我们 将诚恳倾听越南的声音"。范明政在谈到全球经济时强调："我们确认了重视多边主义和呼吁国际 努力的重要性"。 越南面临着在维持经济增长的同时，既要确保电力供应，又要减轻对环境负担的双重课题。通过 投资日本企业在脱碳领域的优势举措，日本意在展示自身对越南的贡献，同时在中国拥有影响力 的越南扩大自身存在感。 第一阶段已选定10多个投资计划。其中包括住友商事和丸红等日企最多投资100亿美元规模的海 上风力发电项目等。 双方还同意推进安全保障合作。将建立外交和防卫副部长级磋商（2+2）机制。讨论遏制中国在 南海扩张的对策。 左）与越南总理范明政举行会谈（Kyodo） 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）手塚悟史 河内报道 第一阶段已 ...

插播 ：TOP10花落谁家？2024-2025用户侧储能项目TOP10榜单征集进行时，点击 上方二维码 进行申报 近期，又有3家储能相关企业宣布签署重要合作协议，合作涵盖了供应链上游以及下游，涉及储能订单超5GWh： ■ 天邦达：与赣锋锂电达成5GWh战略合作 4月25日，天邦达与赣锋锂电在深圳签署战略合作协议 ，根据 2025年度赣锋锂电拟向天邦达采购超过 5GWh 的电池管理系统（BMS）。 天邦达 ： 与赣锋锂电正式达成 5GWh 储能系统战略合作； 比亚迪： 与 Hayleys Solar合作，力拓斯里兰卡储能市场； 瓦锡兰 ： 与 Aqualectra签署创新型脱碳服务协议，涵盖储能项目合作。 此次合作， Hayleys Solar 将比亚迪先进的储能和逆变器解决方案引入斯里兰卡，包括LV 5.0、LV 5.0 Plus、Battery-Box Premium HVS、 Battery-Max LiteIn和太阳能混合逆变器。 ■ 瓦锡兰： 与 Aqualectra签署突破性协议 日前，瓦锡兰 （ Wärtsilä ）与加勒比海岛国库拉索岛的能源公用事业公司Aqualectra签署一项为期5年的创新 ...

Core Viewpoint - Union Maritime is increasing its new ship orders to 50, emphasizing its commitment to clean fuel and technology transition despite global trade uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Investment in New Ships - Union Maritime currently holds 47 ship orders and plans to finalize its order count at 50 soon [1]. - The company has made significant investments in new ship projects, focusing on decarbonization efforts [1]. - The fleet includes a diverse range of vessels, with a total of 113 ships in operation [1]. Group 2: Green Transition and Technology - Union Maritime is investing in clean technologies, including wind propulsion, as part of its decarbonization vision [2]. - The company is testing various clean technologies, including a unique double rudder design and LNG dual-fuel capabilities for some vessels [2][3]. - Investments in new routing software aim to support wind energy technologies and track the impact of these investments [4]. Group 3: Recent Contracts - In January, Union Maritime signed contracts for two methanol-fueled MR-type oil tankers with Equinor, followed by a contract for an LR2-type oil tanker with Shell in February [5]. - The current new ship orders consist of 29 LR2 tankers, 10 MR tankers, 2 Aframax tankers, 2 handy-sized tankers, and 4 product tankers [6].

Core Insights - The demand for marine biofuels is surging as the shipping industry seeks to reduce carbon emissions, with biofuels becoming a popular choice due to their low-carbon attributes [1][3][5] - The total volume of biofuels sold at major international ports like Singapore and Rotterdam is projected to increase from approximately 300,000 tons in 2021 to over 1.6 million tons by 2024 [1] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set clear net-zero emissions targets, prompting countries to implement policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions in the shipping sector [3][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The two most common types of marine biofuels are fatty acid methyl esters and hydrogenated vegetable oils, which can be used immediately without the need for redesigning existing power systems [1][2] - In 2023, Singapore and Rotterdam accounted for about half of the global supply of marine biofuels, indicating a rapid growth trend in biofuel sales at these ports [1] - The global liquid biofuel demand is expected to rise significantly in 2024, with the transportation sector consuming over 4% of the total [3][4] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The EU will include the shipping industry in its carbon emissions trading system starting January 1, 2024, requiring large vessels to report CO2 emissions, which will increase operational costs for shipping companies [3] - Countries like China and the U.S. are actively promoting the use of biofuels in ports, aiming for significant deployment of alternative fuels by 2030 [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The global production of biofuels, including ethanol and various biodiesels, is estimated to be around 111 million tons of oil equivalent in 2023, with only 0.3% used in the shipping sector [4] - The demand for marine biofuels is expected to continue growing as the industry faces increasing pressure to reduce emissions and comply with international regulations [5]