证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 短期毛利率下滑、盈利水平承压。1）毛利率：25Q1 公司毛利率 45.5%，同比-11.0pct。2）费率端：25Q1 销售/管理费/研发/财务 费率分别为 27.8%/2.6%/7.8%/-2.2%，同比变动+7.0pct/-0.1pct/- 2.8pct/-1.4pct。销售费用率提升较多主要系公司加强海内外拓展， 以及为了提升在市场导入期的新品类的市场占有率。3）净利率： 25Q1 净利率 7.8%，同比-13.9pct。 海外生产实力逐步增强，积极市场策略下销售结构、渠道布局有望 进一步优化。生产能力方面，公司采用自建工厂和国内外代工厂相 结合的方式，完善供应链布局，面对贸易摩擦，目前公司海外产能 布局可覆盖美国市场半数以上并在持续快速爬坡。未来公司将持续 丰富产品矩阵及价格矩阵，推进产品结构升级，同时通过积极的市 场策略，进一步优化销售结构和渠道布局，助力业务向更好、更高 质量发展迈进。 盈利预测与投资建议。我们预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别 为 20.8/25.4/30.7 亿元，同比+5.2% ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） 25Q1 扣非业绩超预期，盈利拐点已现 25Q1 营收增速拐头向上，扣非业绩超预期。公司 25Q1 实现营收 48.2 亿 元，同增 8.8%，结束连续 4 个季度的收入下滑；实现扣非后归母净利润 1.1 亿元，同比大幅增长 31%，超市场预期，主因 Q1 研发费用率下降； 实现归母净利润 1.4 亿元，同降 33%，同比下滑主因上年同期确认较多的 政府补助。25Q1 以产量计算的吨扣非后净利 109 元，同比/环比提升 14/10 元，单吨盈利能力已实现触底回升。公司 25Q1 新签订单同增 1.3%，历 经 4 个季度同比下滑后增速回正；钢结构产量同增 14.3%显著加速，结束 连续 4 个季度产量微增的状态。整体看公司 25Q1 订单、产量、营收、扣 非吨净利均出现向上拐点，后续公司业绩有望持续向上修复。 毛利率下降，费用率降低，钢材采购增多致 Q1 现金流净流出。25Q1 公 司毛利率 9.83%，YoY-0.76 个 pct，主因钢结构售价跟随钢价下行（25Q1 热轧卷板日均价格 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） 25Q1 扣非业绩超预期，盈利拐点已现 25Q1 营收增速拐头向上，扣非业绩超预期。公司 25Q1 实现营收 48.2 亿 元，同增 8.8%，结束连续 4 个季度的收入下滑；实现扣非后归母净利润 1.1 亿元，同比大幅增长 31%，超市场预期，主因 Q1 研发费用率下降； 实现归母净利润 1.4 亿元，同降 33%，同比下滑主因上年同期确认较多的 政府补助。25Q1 以产量计算的吨扣非后净利 109 元，同比/环比提升 14/10 元，单吨盈利能力已实现触底回升。公司 25Q1 新签订单同增 1.3%，历 经 4 个季度同比下滑后增速回正；钢结构产量同增 14.3%显著加速，结束 连续 4 个季度产量微增的状态。整体看公司 25Q1 订单、产量、营收、扣 非吨净利均出现向上拐点，后续公司业绩有望持续向上修复。 股价走势 -50% -36% -22% -8% 6% 20% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 鸿路钢构 沪深300 毛利率下降，费用率降低，钢材采购增 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 石头科技（688169.SH） 积极市场策略下收入进一步提速，短期盈利水平下滑 风险提示：消费恢复不及预期、行业竞争加剧、新品开拓不及预期。 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 8,654 | 11,945 | 16,060 | 19,355 | 22,995 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 30.5 | 38.0 | 34.5 | 20.5 | 18.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,051 | 1,977 | 2,080 | 2,542 | 3,071 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 73.3 | -3.6 | 5.2 | 22.2 | 20.8 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元/股） | 11.10 | 10.70 | 11.26 | 13.76 | 16.63 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 18.0 | 15.4 | 14.1 | 14.9 ...

央视网消息："五一"假期将至，人们的出行意愿日渐攀升，消费市场持续火热，不断激发出消费新活力。 "火车向着景区开" 旅游热线受追捧 从车票预售情况分析，旅游热门线路受追捧。"火车向着景区开"成为新趋势。临近假期，北京、郑州、广州、新疆等地提前开行银发旅游列车。"五一"前 夕，郑州至开封间新型城际动车组列车上线运营。"五一"假期，还将有"熊猫专列""丝路号"等多个品牌旅游列车开行。同时，旅游列车还与沿线酒店、景 区、餐饮企业联动，拓展旅游消费新场景。 休渔期前 市民开启囤货模式 从5月1日12时起，东海将全面进入休渔期。许多市民在休渔期前开启"囤货"模式。在浙江宁波的一处水产摊位前，记者看到，鲳鱼、黄鱼、带鱼等海鲜一应 俱全，受到顾客的青睐。 市场工作人员表示，休渔期间，冻品海鲜、养殖类海鲜以及水产品的供应充足，可以满足市民消费需求。 为了缓解部分场馆和景区"一票难求"的情况，一些地方还通过扩容扩时等举措，来满足游客需求。在陕西，秦始皇帝陵博物院将开始检票时间由早上8:30提 前至7:00，停止检票时间由17:00推迟至19:00，门票数量日均增加1.5万张。白鹿原影视城、华清宫等多个景区自2025年4月28日 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 17.10 CNY for the next six months [4][6]. Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in overseas sales, with a year-on-year increase of 15.8% in Q1, driven by robust demand for small household appliances and increased inventory needs due to uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies [2]. - Domestic sales have shown marginal improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 4.9% in Q1, compared to a decline of 11.2% in Q4 2024, supported by government subsidies for replacing old appliances [2]. - The company's profitability has improved, with a net profit margin of 6.4% in Q1, up by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to better investment returns and a favorable exchange rate [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.82 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and a net profit of 1.05 billion CNY, up by 7.7% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.83 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit of 0.25 billion CNY, up by 43.0% [1][3]. - The company's gross profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better cost management and product mix [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing government subsidies for small household appliances, which will likely enhance domestic sales [4]. - The establishment of a manufacturing base in Indonesia is anticipated to mitigate trade policy risks and support stable growth in overseas sales [2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 1.43 CNY, 1.62 CNY, and 1.88 CNY respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [7].

Core Viewpoint - Shun'an Environment reported a strong Q1 performance with revenue of 3.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 220 million yuan, up 4.3% year-on-year, driven by the old-for-new subsidy policy stimulating domestic air conditioning sales [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 revenue reached 3.02 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.0% year-on-year growth [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 220 million yuan, representing a 4.3% year-on-year increase [1] - The company's net profit margin for Q1 was 7.2%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising copper prices [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The old-for-new subsidy policy has positively impacted air conditioning sales, leading to increased demand for upstream valve components [1] - Industry sales data shows that the sales of key components like shut-off valves, four-way valves, and electronic expansion valves increased by 7.1%, 7.5%, and 14.4% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Looking ahead, the combination of national subsidy policies and the peak season for air conditioning is expected to further stimulate sales performance [1] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - Q1 operating cash flow net amount was 150 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 118.4% [2] - The company managed to reduce cash payments for goods and services by 18.2% year-on-year, while cash received from sales increased by 1.0% [2] - The company's cash balance at the end of the period was 2.9 billion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year, indicating a strong liquidity position [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its rapid revenue growth, with projections for EPS of 1.05, 1.17, and 1.35 yuan for 2025 to 2027 [2] - The company is actively expanding into high-margin commercial refrigeration components and automotive thermal management businesses, which is anticipated to improve profitability [2] - A target price of 15.68 yuan is set based on a 15 times dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [2]

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Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable performance in 2024 despite a weak macro consumption environment, with a projected revenue of 3.011 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 542 million yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year. The gross margin is expected to improve by 0.43 percentage points to 56.05% [1][3] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 95.8%, proposing a dividend of 6.2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 520 million yuan [1][3] - The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to see a double-digit revenue decline, with net profit significantly impacted due to increased sales expenses [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 3.011 billion yuan, with a net profit of 542 million yuan. The gross margin improved to 56.05%, while the net margin decreased to 18.01% [1][4] - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to have a revenue of 536 million yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 56 million yuan, down 54.1% year-on-year [1][3] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by channel in 2024 showed steady growth in direct sales (+1.8%) and franchise sales (+1.4%), while online sales declined by 7.4%. Group purchases grew by 5.1% [2] - Revenue by product category indicated that the bedding category generated 1.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.6%, while the set category remained stable with a slight decrease of 0.17% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in wedding demand and consumer stimulus policies in 2025, with projected net profits of 550 million yuan, 587 million yuan, and 622 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][39] - The target price is maintained at 8.9 to 9.6 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 14 to 15 times for 2025 [3][39]