李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚过 去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 | 概要 | | --- | | 市场认为联储还会在7月减息的机率从四周前的76.4%跌至上周五的25.2%。9月息率维持不变的几 | | 率亦从6.2%升到43.8%。 | 美国评级被下调后，美国债券拍卖行清冷清，债券息率继续向上(价格下跌)。换作以前的情况，如 果美国经济衰退，会出现美股下跌，但美汇及美债受惠资金涌入而上升(这也是为什么笔者原本不 敢太过看好金价的原因，因为美国经济衰退会导致美汇强势)；不过由于近期曾出现美股债汇三杀 的现象，以前的投资常识可能有所改变，因此大家要随时做好两手准备。但以目前情况来看，金 价依然强势。 LSEG Workspace用户可以搜寻CFTC寻找最新数据： | | | COMEX黄金 | | COMEX白银 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment towards the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has become more conservative, reflecting concerns about the U.S. economy showing signs of recession without timely rate cuts, indicating a bear market [2][25]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. sovereign rating was downgraded by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, with a negative outlook due to high interest costs and unsustainable debt growth [2][25]. - Bridgewater's founder, Ray Dalio, purchased $319 million worth of gold mining ETFs in the first quarter, with the GDX ETF returning 31.1%, outperforming the gold ETF's 19.9% [2][25]. - As of May 13, 2023, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased to 345 tons, the lowest level in 63 weeks, while net long positions in silver fell to 4,426 tons [6][2]. Group 2: Fund Positioning in Precious Metals - The net long position in gold funds decreased by 39% year-to-date, while silver funds increased by 69% [8][9]. - Platinum funds saw a net long position increase of 58% year-to-date, while copper transitioned from negative to positive [11][13]. - The gold/silver ratio was reported at 99.265, indicating a high level of market fear, with a year-to-date increase of 11.9% [21][23]. Group 3: Future Projections and Strategies - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June, with a probability of 91.4% for no change [24][25]. - There is a potential for significant volatility in the dollar and gold prices due to political dynamics, particularly with the upcoming 2025 elections [27][28]. - Strategies suggested include shorting base metals, shorting U.S. stocks, holding gold, and maintaining cash positions as a defensive measure [28][29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 度陷入僵局，未来经济预期摇摆不定，金银比中长期中枢上移的背景下，金银价走势相关性下行，白银或 维持震荡偏弱运行。短期内，贵金属市场或维持区间震荡格局，关注后续关税谈判进展以及美联储官员最 免责声明 新发言。操作上建议，暂时观望为主，沪金2508合约关注区间：730-770元/克；沪银2508合约关注区间： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 7800-8200元/千克。COMEX黄金期货关注区间：3200-3260美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货关注区间：31.20- 32.80美元/盎司。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/ ...

当前的偏鹰基调转为鸽派，并开启新一轮的降息周期，中长期对于黄金来讲属于利多因素，短期内金价受 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 中美关税乐观预期影响或相对承压，回调压力仍存。白银方面，受全球贸易格局缓和预期提振，白银的工 业和商品属性的提振支撑银价，短期内金银比有望阶段性回落，但伴随全球央行购金需求稳步增长，金银 免责声明 | | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 761.72 | -5.96 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8195 | -24 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 214778 | 197 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 280768 | 92030 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 108018 | 1618 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 136345 | -7331 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market, highlighting the decline in long positions for most metals except copper and palladium, and the implications of U.S. economic conditions and Federal Reserve policies on these markets [2][7][24]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - As of last Tuesday, all U.S. precious metal futures saw a decrease in fund long positions, with only copper and palladium continuing to rise [2][7]. - The gold fund long positions fell by 5% week-over-week, marking a continuous decline for seven weeks, while the net long position dropped to 349 tons, the lowest in 62 weeks [7]. - Silver's fund long positions increased by 2%, but the net long position decreased to 4,704 tons, maintaining a net long position for 62 weeks [7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July dropped from 76.4% to 50.1%, while the probability of maintaining the rate in September increased from 6.2% to 12.6% [2][23]. - Concerns are raised about persistent inflation in April and May, which could lead the Federal Reserve to prioritize dollar stability over economic support [24]. - The article suggests that if inflation remains high, the Fed may not cut rates as anticipated, potentially leading to higher rates in the future [24][26]. Group 3: Commodity Price Trends - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 30.7%, while fund long positions have decreased by 24.7% [7]. - The article notes that the copper market is facing challenges due to economic recession fears, despite general optimism among experts [18]. - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has declined, indicating that mining stocks have underperformed relative to gold prices [20]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Predictions - The article highlights the potential for geopolitical risks to increase, particularly with the upcoming U.S. elections and the implications for monetary policy [25]. - It suggests that if the Fed begins to cut rates but inflation pressures resurface, it will pose a significant challenge for future monetary policy [27]. - The article concludes that strategies such as shorting base metals and holding cash or gold may be prudent in the current market environment [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the increasing gold-silver ratio, indicating that gold retains its monetary attributes more strongly than silver, which has a more pronounced commodity nature [1][5][6] - The gold-silver ratio has historically fluctuated, with significant increases observed during economic downturns, particularly in the 1980s and post-2008 financial crisis [2][3][6] - The recent rise in the gold-silver ratio is attributed to concerns over a potential U.S. economic recession, alongside the stronger monetary characteristics of gold compared to silver [5][6] Group 2 - The global silver supply is projected to be approximately 31,574 tons in 2024, with an expected increase of around 480 tons in 2025, primarily driven by mining output [11] - Silver's supply is increasingly influenced by by-products from copper and lead-zinc mining, with a notable portion of silver production coming from these sources [13][17] - The demand for silver is categorized into industrial, jewelry, and investment needs, with industrial demand expected to grow by about 4% in 2024, particularly driven by the solar energy sector [19][20] Group 3 - Speculative demand plays a crucial role in the pricing of precious metals, with gold being favored over silver during times of economic uncertainty [28][30] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs often correlates with significant price increases, highlighting the impact of speculative trading on gold prices [30] - The Basel III regulations have enhanced the status of physical gold as a reserve asset for central banks, contributing to increased gold purchases and further supporting its price [32][33]

李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 LSEG Workspace用户可以搜寻CFTC寻找最新数据： | | | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | | | Nymex铂金 | Nymex把金 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (截至4月29日) | 물 | 跟上周比较 | 발 | 跟上周比较 | 官 | 跟上周比较 | 를 | 跟上周比较 | | 管理资金的净多头量 | 360 | -7. 8% | 4, 860 | +19. 4% | -3 | +76. 2% | -42 | -1.4% | | 多头量 | 483 | -5. 6% | 6.657 | +15. 9% | 45 | +11. 2% | 8 | +4. 4% | | 空头量 | 123 | +1. 8% | 1.796 | +7.5% | 48 | -11.5% | 50 | +1.8% | 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, with prices soaring from $2500 per ounce in mid-2024 to a peak of $3500 by April 2025, followed by a sharp correction of over 7% within weeks, raising concerns about the sustainability of the bull market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The gold-to-silver ratio has reached an extreme of 100:1, significantly above the historical average of 70:1, indicating potential for either a downward adjustment in gold prices or a strong rally in silver prices [3]. - The gold-to-platinum ratio has climbed to 3.5, whereas it typically fluctuates between 1 and 2 over the past 20 years, suggesting that gold may be severely overvalued relative to platinum [3]. Group 2: Drivers of Gold Price Surge - The surge in gold prices from 2022 to 2023 was driven by escalating global geopolitical tensions, leading central banks, including those of China and Poland, to significantly increase their gold reserves, thereby boosting demand [4]. - The announcement of tariffs by the Trump administration heightened trade tensions and market uncertainty, prompting investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Expectations of the Federal Reserve shifting to a loose monetary policy in 2025 further enhanced gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset, reducing its opportunity cost compared to other investments [4]. Group 3: Changing Market Dynamics - Recent positive signals from the White House regarding trade negotiations have reduced market risk aversion, while a strong rebound in the dollar index has put downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.23%, with real yields approaching 2%, diminishing gold's attractiveness as an investment [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Key upcoming events include the decision on whether to reinstate tariffs after the 90-day pause and the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, both of which will significantly influence market sentiment and gold prices [5]. - Despite short-term pressures, analysts maintain a long-term optimistic outlook for gold, citing the U.S. federal debt surpassing $36 trillion and ongoing geopolitical complexities as factors that will continue to support gold's value as a safe-haven asset [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in gold prices driven by a decline in the US dollar and heightened demand for safe-haven assets, with June 2025 gold futures rising by $96.1 to $3343.5 per ounce, marking a 2.96% increase [1] - Analysts note that the US dollar index fell by 0.2% to 99.828, contributing to the upward movement in gold prices, which are expected to remain above $3000 in the short term [1] - The market is anticipating the results of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged, potentially marking the last clear outcome of the year [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reported that gold is expected to outperform silver due to strong central bank demand for gold, which is a structural factor in the rising gold-silver ratio [2] - On the same day, silver futures for July delivery increased by $0.495 to $32.675 per ounce, reflecting a 1.54% rise, although this was lower than the increase in gold prices [2]