十五五规划
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2026年中国经济展望:风鹏正举
Ping An Securities· 2025-12-02 01:15
Economic Growth Outlook - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is expected to remain around 5%[4] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is projected to be 53.5% in 2025, up from 44.5% in 2024[26] - The anticipated growth rate of social retail sales is around 4% in 2026, with final consumption expenditure growth expected to exceed 5%[51] Export Performance - China's export share is projected to continue its upward trend, with an expected growth rate of 4-5% in 2026[21] - As of July 2025, China's export share reached 15.1%, up from 14.9% in 2024, indicating strong global competitiveness[14] Investment Stability - Real estate investment is expected to stabilize, with a projected decline of around 10.2% in 2026, a significant improvement from previous years[55] - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to rebound significantly in 2026, supported by new policy tools and long-term special bonds[74] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise to around 0.6% in 2026, driven by food prices, while PPI is projected to recover from a decline of -2.8% in 2025[95][116] - The core CPI is expected to maintain a higher level of around 0.8-1% in 2026, reflecting improved consumer confidence and spending[110] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The narrow deficit ratio is projected to increase to 4-4.3% in 2026, with a special bond issuance of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan[127] - New local special bonds are expected to be in the range of 5-5.5 trillion yuan, marking an increase from 2025[128]
我省各部门各单位传达学习省委十二届八次全会精神 在“十五五”新征程中展现更大作为
Si Chuan Ri Bao· 2025-12-02 00:06
省法院党组召开专题会议,要求全省法院要深刻领会全会的精神实质,引导全体干警准确把握省委 的战略意图和重点工作,确保法院工作始终与中心工作同频共振。要发挥审判职能,服务保障高质量发 展。着力优化法治化营商环境,加强产权司法保护,平等保护各类市场主体合法权益;着力服务保障重 大决策、重点项目的顺利推进,依法惩治各类刑事犯罪,服务建设更高水平的平安四川法治四川。要践 行司法为民,提升人民群众司法获得感。着力优化诉讼服务,巩固提升"一站式"多元解纷和诉讼服务体 系建设成果;着力强化民生司法保障,妥善审理民生领域案件,加强特殊群体权益保护,依法维护人民 群众切身利益;着力深化多元解纷,坚持和发展新时代"枫桥经验",积极参与综治中心建设,推动矛盾 纠纷源头预防、前端化解。要强化担当落实,全力做好岁末年初各项工作。 省检察院召开党组(扩大)会议,要求全省检察机关要迅速把思想和行动统一到全会部署上来,为 全省经济社会高质量发展和现代化建设提供坚强法治保障。要聚焦成渝地区双城经济圈建设、科技创 新、法治化营商环境、文旅融合等重点,在川渝检察协作、知识产权保护、市场主体平等保护、生态环 境检察、文化遗产保护等方面充分履职,更好服 ...
省委十四届十次全会精神在省级机关引发热烈反响——实干笃行绘新篇 担当作为走在前
Xin Hua Ri Bao· 2025-12-01 23:32
Group 1 - The Jiangsu Provincial Party Committee's 14th Plenary Session outlines the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on modernizing the economy and society, emphasizing the importance of being a model for China's modernization efforts [1][2] - The financial sector is tasked with enhancing the financial ecosystem, promoting high-quality development, and implementing key reforms to support the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][3] - The provincial government aims to strengthen fiscal sustainability and governance, ensuring effective resource allocation and risk management to support economic growth [3][4] Group 2 - The session emphasizes the integration of technology and innovation in developing new productive forces, aiming to establish a globally influential industrial technology innovation center [5][6] - The agricultural sector is set to modernize, focusing on enhancing production capacity and quality, while promoting rural development and farmers' income [9][10] - The market regulation framework will be improved to support economic development, ensuring product quality and safety across various sectors [7][8] Group 3 - The state-owned enterprises are expected to optimize their economic layout and deepen reforms, focusing on strategic investments in key industries [8][11] - The session highlights the importance of enhancing the legal framework to support international trade and protect the rights of enterprises operating abroad [11][12] - The labor sector will focus on improving worker rights and skills, enhancing the overall quality of life for workers and their families [11][12]
锚定“十五五”发展目标接续奋斗 努力开创江苏现代化建设新局面省政府党组学习贯彻省委十四届十次全会精神
Xin Hua Ri Bao· 2025-12-01 23:32
会议围绕落实省委《建议》,专题研究了我省"十五五"规划纲要编制工作,要求紧扣省委全会部署 的"十五五"目标任务,保持战略定力、增强必胜信心,坚定不移推动高质量发展,努力创造高品质生 活,着力推进高效能治理,聚焦科技创新和产业创新深度融合、加力促消费扩投资、稳步扩大制度型开 放、加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型、保障和改善民生、更好统筹发展和安全等重点工作,一步一个脚 印把各项事业推向前进。要扎实做好我省"十五五"规划纲要编制和各专项规划目录制订,广泛征求意见 建议,谋深谋实牵引全省发展全局的"十五五"工作任务和关键举措,精心论证和动态完善重大战略任 务、重大改革举措、重大工程项目、重大平台载体,科学谋划明年重点工作,在确保"十四五"圆满收官 的基础上努力实现"十五五"良好开局。 会议强调,要认真做好岁末年初各项工作,坚持目标导向、问题导向,加强重点领域谋划调度,着 力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期,集中力量破难题、补短板、强优势,全力巩固拓展经济回升向好 态势,以经济大省挑大梁的责任担当为全国大局多作贡献。要抓好冬季安全生产工作,以"六化"建设为 牵引,压紧压实各方安全责任,加强重点领域、人员密集场所巡查管理,坚 ...
机构展望明年经济增速在5%左右 宏观政策和重大项目将持续发力
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-01 23:13
Economic Overview - The overall economic performance in 2025 is expected to show a "high first, low second" trend, with a projected annual growth target of around 5% [1][4][6] - The economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [1][2] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement but still below the expansion threshold [2][5] - The CPI decreased by 0.1% and the PPI fell by 2.8% in the first three quarters, reflecting weak overall demand [3] Sector Performance - Industrial value added grew by 6.2% year-on-year, while the service sector increased by 5.4%, indicating resilience in supply chains despite external pressures [3] - Exports showed strong resilience, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase from January to October, attributed to competitive products and diversified market strategies [4][10] Policy Recommendations - To counteract the economic downturn in the fourth quarter, more proactive macroeconomic policies are recommended, including increased fiscal spending and monetary easing [6][9] - Suggestions include raising the fiscal deficit rate to 5% and enhancing public financial support for consumption and infrastructure projects [8][10] Future Outlook - The economic growth for 2026 is anticipated to be around 5%, with expectations of a "low first, high second" trend due to new opportunities arising from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6][8] - The need for a robust fiscal and monetary policy framework is emphasized to support economic recovery and growth [9][10]
赵刚主持召开省政府党组会议传达学习省委十四届九次全会精神
Shan Xi Ri Bao· 2025-12-01 22:59
会议指出,省委十四届九次全会是在我省"十四五"即将收官、"十五五"即将开局之际召开的一次十 分重要的会议。全会深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神和习近平总书记历次来陕考察重要讲话重要 指示,审议通过《中共陕西省委关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》,统筹扬优 势、补短板、固根基、强弱项要求,提出目标引领力强,部署任务前瞻性好,工作举措具有很强的针对 性,必将推动谱写陕西新篇、争做西部示范有新气象新作为。 会议强调,要切实把思想和行动统一到省委全会的决策部署上来,把学习贯彻省委全会精神与学习 贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神、习近平总书记历次来陕考察重要讲话重要指示紧密结合起来,把学习成 效体现到"十五五"工作中,体现到当前重点工作中,切实以全会精神指导推动全省各项事业发展。要高 质量编制"十五五"规划,在前期工作基础上,聚焦重点难点领域和历史遗留问题,组织力量深入调查研 究,严守各类底线红线,加强省级规划与国家规划的衔接,做好对市县规划的指导,突出规划纲要对专 项规划的统领作用,做实目标衔接、指标分解、内容承接、任务细化,切实形成规划合力。要扎实抓好 年底收官工作,强化经济运行调度,着力稳就业、稳企业 ...
【关注“十五五”规划】前瞻布局未来产业 中国具备禀赋优势
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-12-01 18:12
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has outlined a strategic initiative to proactively layout future industries, focusing on six key areas: quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication. This initiative aims to enhance the country's industrial structure and drive economic growth [1]. Group 1: Future Industry Layout - The strategic layout of future industries is expected to clarify the direction of China's industrial structure and serve as a new pillar for economic growth [1]. - The six core areas identified for future industry development are characterized by their strategic, leading, and disruptive features [1]. Group 2: Advantages of Development - China possesses three unique advantages for developing future industries: a new type of national system for resource concentration, a complete industrial system for technology commercialization, and a vast market for rapid application and iteration of new technologies [1]. - The country is also expected to leverage its technological innovation advantages to support these developments [1]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - In embodied intelligence, China is achieving breakthroughs in both "smart brains" and "strong bodies," with increasing levels of model generalization [2]. - The country has developed leading brain-computer interface technologies, including ultra-flexible, minimally invasive electrodes and dynamic electrodes that can navigate within animal brains [2]. - In biomanufacturing, China leads globally in CAR-T cell therapy and original drug production [2]. - Quantum technology advancements include the "Zuchongzhi No. 3" supercomputer, which is significantly faster than the world's fastest supercomputer, and the "Wukong" quantum computer, which has completed over 710,000 calculations globally [2]. Group 4: Innovation Rankings - According to the Global Innovation Index 2025, China has entered the top ten for the first time, achieving its highest ranking at fourth place [3]. - The Global Key and Emerging Technologies Index 2025 indicates that while the U.S. remains the leading technology power, China ranks second in key technology fields such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence [3]. - China has 24 of the world's top 100 innovation clusters, maintaining its position as the global leader for three consecutive years [3]. Group 5: Policy Initiatives - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have issued implementation opinions to promote innovation in future industries, including specific policies for brain-computer interfaces and biomanufacturing [4]. - The State Council has introduced measures to accelerate the cultivation of application scenarios across various fields, establishing a comprehensive ecosystem for future industries [4]. Group 6: Industry Growth - Approximately 350 companies related to brain-computer interfaces have emerged in China, creating a complete industrial chain from core components to end applications [5]. - China has established the largest solar panel and flat screen film production bases globally, along with 23 biomanufacturing bases [5]. - With over 300 billion yuan allocated to quantum technology and substantial local funding, major provinces are developing numerous quantum technology application scenarios [5]. - The country has built 4.55 million 5G base stations, indicating a strong push towards future industries characterized by national strategic guidance and large-scale market applications [5].
驻奥克兰总领馆经商处向领区侨商宣介中共二十届四中全会精神
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-12-01 16:27
(原标题:驻奥克兰总领馆经商处向领区侨商宣介中共二十届四中全会精神) 11月29日、30日,驻奥克兰总领馆经商处主任王程光领事、果鹏文领事先后分别出 席新西兰安徽总商会、新西兰东北总商会、新西兰广西商会年度庆典活动,宣介中共 二十届四中全会精神。领区侨商共500余人出席上述活动。 与会侨商表示,中新全面战略伙伴关系给两国人民带来切实利益,期待深度参 与"十五五"时期中国发展建设,为谱写中国式现代化新篇章贡献力量。 两位领事在活动致辞中表示,近期召开的中共二十届四中全会通过"十五五"规划建 议,擘画了国家未来五年发展的宏伟蓝图。中国将扩大高水平对外开放,开创合作共 赢新局面,这为包括新西兰在内的各国深化对华合作创造了宝贵机遇,也为海外华侨 华人与祖(籍)国同频发展指明了方向。 ...
机构展望明年经济增速在5%左右
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-01 16:25
Economic Overview - In December, the economic performance for 2025 is expected to show a "high first, low second" trend, with a projected annual growth rate of around 5% [1][3] - The economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [1][3] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement but still below the expansion threshold [3][6] - The industrial added value increased by 6.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, while the service sector grew by 5.4% [5][6] - CPI decreased by 0.1% and PPI fell by 2.8% in the same period, reflecting weak demand [5][6] Policy Measures - The government has introduced policies to stabilize investment and mitigate risks, including the accelerated deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools [3][6] - There is an expectation for more proactive macroeconomic policies to support growth in 2026, including significant infrastructure projects and fiscal measures [9][10] Future Projections - For 2026, economic growth is anticipated to remain around 5%, with a potential shift to a "low first, high second" trend due to new opportunities arising from the 14th Five-Year Plan [10][13] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase to 5% in 2026, with a focus on enhancing public spending and supporting consumer demand [11][12] Sector-Specific Insights - The export sector has shown resilience, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in exports from January to October 2025, despite external pressures [6][13] - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with ongoing adjustments and a need for policy interventions to stabilize the sector [6][12]
机构展望明年经济增速在5%左右
21世纪经济报道· 2025-12-01 16:02
Economic Overview - In December, the economic performance for 2025 is expected to show a "high first, low second" trend, with a projected annual growth rate of around 5% [1] - The economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [1] Manufacturing and Investment - The manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 49.2%, indicating slight improvement but still below the expansion threshold [3] - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the activation of 500 billion yuan in local debt are expected to provide additional investment funds [3] Economic Challenges - The economy is facing downward pressure in the fourth quarter, with growth expected to slow to around 4.5% [3] - Demand remains weak, as evidenced by a CPI decline of 0.1% and a PPI drop of 2.8% in the first three quarters [5] Export and Market Resilience - Exports showed strong resilience, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase from January to October, despite external pressures [6] - The capital market has strengthened, particularly in technology stocks, due to reforms and improved risk appetite [6] Future Economic Projections - For 2026, the economic growth target is also expected to be around 5%, with a focus on proactive macroeconomic policies to stimulate growth [8][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" will initiate significant projects aimed at infrastructure and consumption upgrades, which are expected to support economic recovery [9] Policy Recommendations - It is suggested to increase the fiscal deficit rate to 5% for 2026 to enhance public spending and support economic growth [12] - Monetary policy may see further easing, including potential interest rate cuts, to stimulate demand [12][13]