美国12月核心消费者价格涨幅低于市场预期，进一步增强了市场对通胀正在降温的信心。当前，美联储正评估下一步利率政策走向。 美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据显示，美国12月未季调CPI年率录得2.7%，与11月持平，符合市场预期。 剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增长2.6%，低于预估的2.7%;环比增长0.2%，低于预估的0.3%。 住房成本为最大贡献单项 报告显示，住房成本作为通胀黏性的关键因素，当月上涨了0.4%，是月度涨幅的最大贡献项。该类别占CPI权重超过三分之一，同比上涨3.2%。 报告的其他部分也显示通货膨胀持续存在。 12月食品价格上涨0.7%，但鸡蛋价格暴跌8.2%，较去年同期下降近21%，此前鸡蛋价格曾大幅上涨。其他价格上涨的领域包括娱乐、机票和医疗保健。 部分对关税敏感的类别也出现上涨，其中服装价格有所上升。然而，由于前总统唐纳德·特朗普暂缓了对该领域进口商品加征关税的威胁，家居用品价格下 降了0.5%。 劳工统计局称，休闲娱乐支出增长1.2%，是该指数自1993年有记录以来的最大月度涨幅。 美联储设定的通胀年度目标为2%，因此这份报告提供了一些证据，表明物价上涨速度正朝着目标回落，但仍处于较高水 ...

摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）周二在财报电话会议上发出警告，称特朗普政府对美联储的 攻击可能会适得其反，进而推高借贷成本和通胀。 戴蒙明确表示，他全力支持央行的独立性，并对美联储主席鲍威尔个人怀有"极大的敬意"。他指 出："任何削弱（美联储独立性）的做法可能都不是个好主意。在我看来，这会产生相反的后果。它将 提高通胀预期，并可能随着时间的推移推高利率。" 这一言论发表之际，市场正密切关注美联储与白宫之间日益紧张的关系。此前几天，鲍威尔透露自己正 受到特朗普政府司法部的刑事调查。对此，特朗普周二回应称，他认为自己的做法没有问题，并反击 称："我们应该降低利率。Jamie 戴蒙可能想要更高的利率。也许那样他能赚更多的钱。" 捍卫央行独立性 华尔街其他高管也表达了担忧。纽约梅隆银行首席执行官Robin Vince指出，侵蚀美联储独立性与白宫 改善消费者负担能力的愿望背道而驰。Vince表示："质疑债券市场的基本原则之一，实际上冒着适得其 反的风险，可能会推高利率，因为市场不得不担心一些坦率地说本不该担心的事情。" 摩根大通首席财务官Jeremy Barnum也附和了戴蒙的警告，称更大的问题在于"对 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，美国12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，符合市场预期；核心CPI同比 2.6%，低于市场预期。从分项来看，食品价格大幅上涨，与关税相关的商品价格稳定，房租与非房租 核心通胀均明显反弹。回顾2025年，特朗普关税对通胀的传导比我们预期的更温和，主要通胀压力仍来 自于服务业。 往前看，需要关注此前选择自行消化成本、尚未提价的企业是否会补涨，以及服务业的韧性是否形成结 构性通胀压力。中金公司认为，对于美联储而言，温和的通胀数据不足以推动其1月再次降息，中金公 司维持1月按兵不动，下一次降息或在3月的判断。 中金公司主要观点如下： 美国12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，符合市场预期；核心CPI同比2.6%，低于市场预期。从分项来看，食品价 格大幅上涨，与关税相关的商品价格稳定，房租与非房租核心通胀均明显反弹。回顾2025年，特朗普关 税对通胀的传导比我们预期的更温和，主要通胀压力仍来自于服务业。往前看，需要关注此前选择自行 消化成本、尚未提价的企业是否会补涨，以及服务业的韧性是否形成结构性通胀压力。我们认为，对于 美联储而言，温和的通胀数据不足以推动其1月再次降息，我们维持1月按兵不动， ...

Group 1: CPI Data and Market Reaction - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7% as of December 2025, with a core CPI increase of 2.6% excluding volatile food and energy prices [4] - Following the CPI release, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 398.21 points (0.80%), the Nasdaq down by 24.03 points (0.10%), and the S&P 500 down by 13.53 points (0.19%) [3][2] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector experienced a rebound, with Intel shares rising by 7.33%, AMD by 6.39%, and Astera Labs by 4.63% [7][9] - The U.S. government approved the export of Nvidia's H200 chips to China, which may impact the semiconductor market positively [7] Group 3: JPMorgan's Financial Performance - JPMorgan reported Q4 2025 adjusted revenue of $46.77 billion and a net profit of $13 billion, exceeding expectations, with an annual net profit of $57 billion for 2025 [12] - Despite strong earnings, JPMorgan's stock fell over 4% due to broader market adjustments and concerns over credit card interest rate caps proposed by former President Trump [12] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - NYMEX WTI crude oil futures saw a significant increase, peaking at approximately $61.5 per barrel [15] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a decline in oil prices, predicting an average Brent crude price of $56 per barrel in 2026, down 19% from 2025 [15]

人民财讯1月14日电，中金指出，美国2025年12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，符合市场预期；核心CPI同比 2.6%，低于市场预期。从分项来看，食品价格大幅上涨，与关税相关的商品价格稳定，房租与非房租 核心通胀均明显反弹。回顾2025年，特朗普关税对通胀的传导比预期的更温和，主要通胀压力仍来自于 服务业。往前看，需要关注此前选择自行消化成本、尚未提价的企业是否会补涨，以及服务业的韧性是 否形成结构性通胀压力。中金认为，对于美联储而言，温和的通胀数据不足以推动其1月再次降息，维 持1月按兵不动，下一次降息或在3月的判断。 ...

里士满联储行长巴尔金周二称12月通胀数据"令人鼓舞"，不过他指出，通胀往往在年初飙升，并表示希 望未来几个月通胀率将保持在温和水平。 "我认为，目前是一种微妙的平衡，" Barkin在华盛顿对美国CFA协会表示。他指出，通胀高于目标，但 似乎没有加速，失业率也没有失控。 "没有人希望通胀预期根深蒂固，也没有人希望就业市场进一步恶化，" 巴尔金说，"有可能两者都不会 发生。" 美联储去年将政策利率下调了75个基点，并在去年12月暗示，可能会在新的一年暂停降息，以评估经济 的需求。 周二公布的政府数据显示，美国12月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比期上涨2.7%。巴尔金说，这是"令 人鼓舞的"，因为它没有像一些人预期的那样反弹。 美联储的通胀目标是2%，但采用的是另一种通胀指标，该指标将在未来几天公布包括生产者价格在内 的更多数据后计算得出。 上周，美国劳工部发布的月度就业报告显示，12月份失业率为4.4%，比上一次官方公布的数据略有下 降，但比去年同期有所上升。 巴金并不认为这些事态发展值得美联储做出紧急回应。 巴尔金仅表示："拥有独立央行的国家有更好的经济成果"。 他说："我们大部分利率动作大多会在12个月后产 ...

特朗普的一举一动，又开始影响全球市场表现 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现，本来美股盘前有通胀数据降温的利好，但是正式开盘之后，三大指数跳水，紧接着石油价格跳涨。泰勒 找了一圈原因，结果发现，根源就在，特朗普身上！ | 最高：326.86 | 今开:324.30 | 成交量: 652.26万股 | 换手:0.24% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最低: 313.85 | 昨收:324.49 | 成交额:20.82亿 | 振幅: 4.01% | | 52周最高: 337.25 | 量比: 3.42 | 市盈率(TTM): 14.84 | 市净率: 2.39 | | 52周最低: 202.16 | 委比: -50.00% | 市盈率(静): 14.73 | 市销率: 3.18 | | 每股收益:21.32 | 股息(TTM): 5.84 | 每手股数：1 | 总市值: 8612.71亿 | | 每股净资产:124.96 | 股息率(TTM): 1.80% | 最小价差:0.01 | 总股本：27.22亿 | | 机构持股：▪ | Beta: -- | 空头回补 ...

Market Performance - On January 13, all three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.8%, nearly 400 points, the S&P 500 down 0.19%, and the Nasdaq down 0.1% [1] - The Dow Jones index closed at 49,191.99, down 398.21 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed at 23,709.87 and 6,963.74, down 24.03 and 13.53 points respectively [2] Technology Sector - Technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Intel rising over 7% to reach a nearly two-year high, and AMD increasing over 6%. However, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft all fell over 1% [2] - Nvidia's stock rose 0.47% following the news that the US has relaxed export regulations on its H200 chips to China [2] Banking Sector - Bank stocks experienced a broad decline, with the KBW Bank Index falling 1.3% and JPMorgan Chase dropping over 4%. The decline was attributed to lower-than-expected investment banking fees and warnings regarding potential risks from proposed credit card interest rate caps [4] - JPMorgan's investment banking revenue from underwriting and advisory services saw a decline, which could significantly impact the bank and its clients [4] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.86%, with many popular Chinese stocks declining. Notable drops included Brain Rebirth down over 26%, WeRide down over 10%, and Pinduoduo down over 5% [4] Commodity and Currency Markets - US Treasury yields fluctuated after the CPI report, with the 10-year yield stabilizing around 4.17%. The dollar strengthened, pushing the USD/JPY exchange rate above 159 [6] - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4,630 before slightly retreating, while silver futures rose 2.08% to $86.86 per ounce [6] Inflation and Economic Outlook - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year as of December 2025, with the core CPI increasing by 2.6% [8] - Analysts predict that inflation may remain sticky around 3% in 2026, with potential upward pressure due to looser fiscal and monetary policies [8]

当地时间1月13日，美股三大指数集体收跌。科技股涨跌互现，谷歌涨超1%。 商品市场方面，白银延续强势表现，伦敦现货白银、COMEX白银期货盘中均创历史新高。黄金温和走弱。 美股三大股指收跌 当地时间1月13日，美股三大指数集体收跌。数据显示，道指跌0.8%，报49191.99点；标普500指数跌0.19%，报6963.74点；纳指跌0.1%，报23709.87点。 美股大型科技股涨跌互现，美国科技七巨头指数跌0.22%。个股方面，谷歌涨超1%，英伟达涨0.47%，苹果涨0.31%，Meta、亚马逊、微软跌逾1%，特斯 拉跌0.39%。 消息面上，高盛将谷歌母公司Alphabet的目标股价从每股330美元上调至375美元，维持对Alphabet的"买入"评级。 截至北京时间1月14日5:21，伦敦现货白银涨2.11%，盘中最高涨至89.12美元的历史新高。COMEX白银期货涨1.87%，盘中也创下89.215美元的历史新 高。伦敦现货黄金跌0.22%，COMEX黄金期货跌0.42%。 华联期货研报称，据世界白银协会发布的最新数据，2025年全球白银市场的供需缺口预计超1亿盎司，白银市场连续第五年处于供应短缺状态 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Bank stocks experienced a broad decline, with the KBW Bank Index falling by 1.3% and JPMorgan Chase down by 4.2% [1] - Technology stocks showed mixed results, with Intel rising over 7% to reach a nearly two-year high, while AMD increased by over 6%. However, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft all dropped by more than 1% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.86%, with notable declines in Pinduoduo (over 5%), NIO and Xpeng (over 3%), and JD.com and Li Auto (over 1%) [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Crude oil futures saw an increase, with the Shanghai International Energy Exchange's crude oil futures contract rising by 2.90% to 450.40 RMB per barrel [1] - International oil prices also rose, with light crude oil futures for February delivery increasing by $1.65 to $61.15 per barrel (up 2.77%) and Brent crude for March delivery rising by $1.60 to $65.47 per barrel (up 2.51%) [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with a core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 2.6% [6] - The U.S. government recorded a fiscal deficit of $145 billion in December 2025, a 67% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high for that month [6] - Economists suggest that despite a weak job market, persistent inflation concerns may lead the Federal Reserve to be cautious in deciding whether to ease monetary policy in 2026 [7] Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem indicated that inflation-related risks are diminishing, and he expects prices to align more closely with the Fed's target later this year [8] - Investors believe the likelihood of another rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is low, but anticipate two rate cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points [8] Group 5: Venezuela Market Developments - Venezuela's benchmark stock index surged over 130% since January 3, following significant political changes, driven by investor optimism regarding a potential economic turnaround [9] - The U.S. White House has requested major oil companies to invest in Venezuela to restore its oil extraction infrastructure, indicating a potential opening for global capital in this previously closed market [10]