Core Viewpoint - The Swiss franc has reached a 10-year high against the US dollar due to uncertainty surrounding US policies, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching its highest level in over a decade [1] - Analysts indicate that both the Swiss franc and the euro are primary beneficiaries as investors look for alternatives to the US dollar [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Chris Turner, an analyst at ING, noted that the rise of the Swiss franc occurred despite low yields on Swiss government bonds, suggesting a shift in liquidity preferences among investors [1] - There is an increasing expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates sooner than previously anticipated, which is putting additional pressure on the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures prices have risen for the second consecutive day, driven by a weaker dollar and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets, with a daily increase of 1.7% to $3362.50 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The demand for gold remains strong due to persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, despite a recovery in market risk appetite [1] - The weakening of the dollar has further enhanced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2: Investment Caution - Analysts warn investors to remain cautious as the dollar is currently in a severely oversold condition, which could lead to a potential rebound [1] - A rebound in the dollar could increase the purchasing cost of dollar-denominated commodities and may also make the dollar itself a competing safe-haven choice against gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations this year, initially rising to record highs before entering a downward adjustment phase, with recent declines leading to a drop below $3250 per ounce [1][4]. Price Trends - As of July 1, 2023, various gold brands in China have seen price adjustments, with Water Bay Gold at 772.2 RMB per gram and major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang priced at 998-1000 RMB per gram, reflecting slight increases [2]. - The overall trend indicates a decline in domestic gold jewelry prices, with many brands falling below 1000 RMB per gram [1]. Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment is divided, with some opting to cash out while others see the current price drop as an opportunity to buy at lower prices [3][4]. - Experienced investors, like Mr. Yu, maintain a bullish outlook on gold, viewing short-term fluctuations as temporary and preparing to increase their positions [4]. Market Dynamics - The gold market has seen a significant increase in demand, particularly from younger investors, despite recent price volatility [5]. - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with projections indicating that gold will constitute 20% of global official reserves by 2024, surpassing the euro [7][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term price volatility may continue due to macroeconomic factors, the long-term investment value of gold remains strong [8]. - A recent survey indicates that over 90% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold holdings in the next 12 months, marking the highest level of confidence since 2019 [8].

Group 1 - Gold prices have recently risen, reaching a high of $3320.34 per ounce, supported by strong buying at lower levels and a weaker US dollar [2] - The US dollar index has dropped 0.5% to 96.76, marking its worst first half performance since the 1970s, with a monthly decline of 2.7% [2] - Concerns over the increasing US government deficit, projected to rise by $3.3 trillion due to tax cuts and spending, have weakened the dollar's appeal [2] Group 2 - Tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve are increasing, with President Trump pressuring Fed Chairman Powell for significant interest rate cuts [3] - Recent trade agreements between the US and China regarding rare earth minerals have provided some hope for trade dialogue, while the EU has expressed willingness to negotiate tariffs [3] - The upcoming employment data in the US is critical for determining future monetary policy and could influence gold prices significantly [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a rebound phase, with key support at $3295 and resistance at $3335 [4][6] - The market is advised to wait for a pullback to $3295 for potential buying opportunities, while maintaining a cautious approach to avoid chasing prices [4][6] - The overall strategy suggests a focus on short positions while monitoring key price levels for potential reversals [6][7] Group 4 - Specific trading strategies include shorting gold at $3320-$3323 with a target of $3305-$3300, and buying on dips at $3295-$3300 with a target of $3305-$3310 [7] - Emphasis is placed on risk management, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses [7][8] - The article highlights the importance of market analysis and adapting strategies based on market conditions to avoid significant losses [8]

Group 1: Impact of Investor Behavior on Gold Prices - Investor behavior is the most direct factor influencing gold price fluctuations, with different types of investors making decisions based on their expectations and strategies, especially during periods of economic uncertainty [2] - When economic data is poor, investors often turn to gold as a safe-haven asset, increasing demand and driving prices up [2] - Market expectations regarding economic events can lead to significant buying or selling actions, further impacting gold prices [2] Group 2: Role and Influence of Hedge Funds - Hedge funds play a crucial role in the gold market due to their market experience and financial strength, using complex trading strategies to influence price trends [4] - Large-scale trading operations by hedge funds can significantly affect market dynamics, especially during periods of high volatility [4] - Hedge funds may increase their gold holdings if they anticipate price increases, or sell off quickly if they believe the price rise is unsustainable, thus amplifying market fluctuations [4] Group 3: Central Banks and Monetary Policy - Central banks hold substantial gold reserves, and their buying or selling actions can have profound effects on the market [5] - An increase in gold reserves by central banks typically raises market demand and pushes prices higher, while a reduction can lead to oversupply and price declines [5] - Central banks' monetary policies, such as interest rate changes, also indirectly affect gold prices, with loose policies generally increasing gold's attractiveness [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis in Gold Price Movements - Technical analysis plays a significant role in the gold market, with traders using charts and indicators to inform their buying and selling decisions [7] - Breakthroughs of key technical levels can trigger substantial buying or selling, leading to sharp price movements [7] - The widespread use of technical analysis among various market participants contributes to increased volatility in gold prices [7] Group 5: Global Macroeconomic Factors - The global economic environment is a key determinant of gold price fluctuations, with gold demand rising during economic uncertainty or crises [8] - Economic recovery can lead to decreased demand for gold as investors shift towards riskier assets, resulting in price declines [8] - Inflation and currency fluctuations also impact gold prices, with rising inflation typically driving prices up as gold is seen as a hedge against inflation [8] Group 6: Market Sentiment and Price Volatility - Market sentiment significantly influences gold prices, with news and investor emotions rapidly altering supply and demand dynamics [10] - Optimistic market sentiment can lead to reduced demand for gold, while pessimistic sentiment often drives investors towards gold as a safe haven [10] - The phenomenon of "herding" among investors can exacerbate price volatility, as collective optimism or pessimism leads to increased trading activity [10]

新加坡贵金属经销商GoldSilver Central董事总经理Brian Lan表示，缺乏其他投资选择的东南亚投资者已开始将黄金视为一种战略性资产。 【环球网财经综合报道】6月30日，据彭博社消息，曾热衷抢购金条和金币的美国投资者如今正在抛售这些资产，另一边，亚洲投资者却持续加码买入，这 表明全球的投资者对经济前景的看法截然不同。 对于金价涨势是否已结束，华尔街银行存在分歧。高盛重申其预测，认为明年金价将达到4000美元，摩根士丹利预计今年年底金价将达到3800美元，而花旗 集团则认为明年金价将跌破3000美元。（闻辉） 报道称，这些美国散户投资者的行为与更广泛的市场趋势背道而驰。更富有的投资者、主权财富基金和中央银行仍在积极买入黄金这一避险资产。与此同 时，亚洲黄金买家则舍弃了黄金首饰，转而购买金条和金币。 美国市场充斥着大量金条和金币，一些贵金属经销商已将溢价降至六年来最低水平，以刺激销售。而且，投资者出售黄金时，现在还需向经销商支付手续 费。贵金属经销商Money Metals Exchange目前对一盎司美国鹰金币的售价在现货价格基础上加收20美元，而四年前这一溢价为75美元。如今，投资者出售黄 金 ...

创近一个月新低后，现货黄金突然大反攻！ 盘中创近1月新低，午后反攻 6月30日，现货黄金盘中一度跌一个月新低，随后上涨突破3290美元/盎司，截至15:03，报3292.403美元 /盎司，日内涨超0.5%。 | 3292.403 | 脏结 | 3273.430 | 3272.717 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | +18.973 +0.58% | 总量(kg) 0.00 | | 现手 | O | | 最高价 3295.610 | 特 仓 | 0 | 0.000 | | | 最低价 3246.550 | 报 合 | | 0 0.000 | | | 分时 五日 | ョK 日Ｋ | | 申名 月K | | | 叠加 | | | | | | 3300.310 | | | 0.82% 321 3292.676 | 0 | | | | | द्रा 3292.403 | 0 | | | | | 15:02 3292.437 | 9 | | | | | 15:02 3292.480 | 0 | | | | | 0.00% 15:02 3292.437 | 1801 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - After nearly six months of soaring prices and surpassing historical highs over 20 times, global gold prices have entered a correction phase, influenced by geopolitical tensions easing, improving economic data, and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of June 30, spot gold prices fell below $3,250 per ounce, marking a one-month low after two consecutive weeks of decline [1]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by over 20% [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - According to the World Gold Council's recent survey, 95% of central banks believe they will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [3][9]. - Approximately 43% of central banks explicitly plan to increase their gold reserves within the next year [3]. - A survey by OMFIF indicates that 32% of central banks plan to increase their gold exposure in the next 12 to 24 months, the highest figure in five years [4]. Group 3: China's Gold Reserves - As of May 31, 2025, China's gold reserves stood at 7.383 million ounces, reflecting an increase of 60,000 ounces from the end of April, marking seven consecutive months of growth [5]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold purchases by central banks will remain strong, forecasting gold prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially $4,000 by mid-2026, with an extreme scenario suggesting prices could hit $4,500 by the end of 2025 [6]. - Conversely, Citigroup expects gold prices to drop below $3,000 per ounce in the coming quarters, forecasting a range of $2,500 to $2,700 by the second half of 2026 [7]. Group 5: Central Bank's Logic Behind Gold Purchases - The increase in central bank gold purchases reflects a shift in asset allocation logic, with gold seen as a means to enhance reserve diversity and resilience amid growing uncertainties [9][12]. - Central banks' gold purchases now account for about 20% of global gold demand, up from 10-15% before 2022, indicating a significant increase in demand [9].

Core Insights - Gold has emerged as the best-performing asset class in the first half of the year, with spot gold prices rising by 25% [1] - The price of gold has been on a continuous upward trend for three years, with significant increases observed in 2023 and 2024 [2] - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have optimistic forecasts for gold prices, predicting substantial increases in the coming years [3][4] Group 1: Price Trends and Predictions - Spot gold opened at $2,623 per ounce in 2023 and reached a peak of $3,499.45 per ounce on April 22, marking a rise of over 30% [1] - By June 30, 2023, the spot gold price was quoted at $3,280 per ounce, reflecting an 80% increase since the beginning of the year [1] - JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices could reach $6,000 per ounce by 2029, indicating an 80% increase from current levels [2][3] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The migration of funds from U.S. assets to gold could create a supply-demand imbalance, as even a small percentage shift (0.5%) could lead to a demand exceeding annual gold production [3] - The acceleration of de-dollarization is evident, with central bank reserves of dollars expected to drop to 57.4% in 2024, while gold reserves are projected to rise to 18.3% [3] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have doubled from $1,451 to $3,000 in just five years, indicating a faster growth rate compared to previous bull markets [3] Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Gold has become the second-largest reserve asset for global central banks, with significant increases in gold purchases expected to continue [5][6] - Central banks are projected to purchase over 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year, with a notable increase in demand from emerging markets [6][7] - A recent survey indicates that over 90% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices oscillated and declined. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran, Fed Chair Powell's statement on the lack of urgency to cut interest rates, and the Sino - US trade agreement on rare earth supply led to a significant decline in the price of gold as a safe - haven asset. Silver was more resilient but also fell on Friday [4][7]. - Trump criticized Canada's digital tax, terminated US - Canada trade negotiations, and threatened new tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary hinted at a possible extension of the "tariff deadline" from July 9 to September 1. The US and China finalized a trade understanding on rare earth exports, and the US will lift trade counter - measures if China exports rare earths to the US [4][8]. - With the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the improvement in Sino - US trade relations, and the rise in the US core PCE supporting Powell's view, market expectations of monetary easing have decreased, putting pressure on safe - haven assets. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will continue to adjust in the short term [4][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE gold closed at 768.64 yuan/gram, down 9.94 yuan or 1.28%. Its total trading volume was 148,475 lots, and the total open interest was 178,255 lots [5]. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 763.08 yuan/gram, down 14.86 yuan or 1.91%. The total trading volume was 38,222 lots, and the total open interest was 213,128 lots [5]. - COMEX gold closed at 3286.10 dollars/ounce, down 98.30 dollars or 2.90% [5]. - SHFE silver closed at 8792 yuan/kilogram, up 128 yuan or 1.48%. The total trading volume was 522,479 lots, and the total open interest was 634,627 lots [5]. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 8748 yuan/kilogram, up 18 yuan or 0.21%. The total trading volume was 477,072 lots, and the total open interest was 3,111,050 lots [5]. - COMEX silver closed at 36.17 dollars/ounce, up 0.21 dollars or 0.60% [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The decline in precious metal prices was due to the cease - fire in the Middle East, Powell's statement on interest rates, and the Sino - US trade agreement on rare earths. Silver was more resilient due to the strong performance of platinum and palladium but also fell on Friday [4][7]. - After the cease - fire declaration, there were still mutual attacks between Iran and Israel, but the conflict did not worsen further. Iran's foreign minister said there was no plan to restart nuclear negotiations [7]. - Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance on interest rates, which dissatisfied Trump. Trump considered announcing Powell's successor in advance, causing market concerns [8]. - The US - Canada trade relationship became tense again, but Sino - US trade relations improved. The rise in the US core PCE supported Powell's view, and short - term gold and silver prices are expected to continue adjusting [4][8]. - This week, focus on the US June non - farm payroll data and the global central bank forum, especially Powell's remarks [9][11]. 3. Important Data Information - In May, the US core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. The core PCE price increased 0.2% month - on - month, while real personal consumption expenditure decreased 0.3% month - on - month, and personal income decreased 0.4% month - on - month. Fed's Kashkari still expects two rate cuts this year, with the first possibly in September [12]. - The final value of the US Q1 real GDP decreased 0.5% annually and quarter - on - quarter, higher than expected. Personal consumption growth was revised down to 0.5%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 3.5% [12]. - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than expected. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 [12]. - The initial value of US durable goods orders in May increased 16.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since July 2014. Core capital goods orders increased 1.7% [13]. - The initial value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the manufacturing PMI was 5.0, the highest since February. The raw material payment price index rose 5.4 points, and the price acceptance index also increased [13]. - The initial value of the Eurozone's June composite PMI was 50.2, lower than expected. Germany's composite PMI rose to 50.4, while France's fell to 48.5 [13]. - US consumer confidence in June unexpectedly declined. The consumer confidence index decreased 5.4 points to 93 [13]. - The one - year inflation expectation in the Michigan University consumer survey was adjusted from 5.1% to 5.0%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was 4.0%, both lower than the previous values [14]. 4. Related Data Charts - As of June 27, 2025, the total gold position in ETFs was 954.82 tons, an increase of 4.58 tons from the previous week. The silver position in ishare was 14,866.19 tons, an increase of 115.91 tons from the previous week [15]. - As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial net long position in gold futures was 195,004, a decrease of 5,644 from the previous week. The non - commercial net long position in silver futures was 62,947, a decrease of 4,227 from the previous week [17]. - The report also provides multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, net long position changes, and price differences of precious metals, as well as the relationships between precious metals and other economic indicators such as the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and bond yields [19][21][26]