美国7月通胀延续温和走势，但核心价格指标显著回升。 当地时间8月12日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，7月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，符合 预期，较6月的0.3%有所放缓；同比涨幅2.7%，与上月持平。剔除食品与能源的核心CPI环比升0.3%， 创1月以来最大涨幅，同比升至3.1%，高于6月的2.9%。 消息公布后，特朗普在社交平台"真实社交"发文称，关税并未推高通胀，也未对经济造成损害，并批评 高盛对关税影响的判断失准。 在最新的社交媒体发文中，特朗普称，"太迟先生"鲍威尔现在必须降息，"他总是做得太晚，造成的伤 害无法估量"。特朗普并透露，正考虑允许针对鲍威尔的重大诉讼继续推进，理由是后者在美联储大楼 翻修项目上的管理"糟糕透顶"，耗资30亿美元，却是一个"原本只需5000万美元修复的工程"。 Evercore ISI固定收益策略师斯坦·希普利认为，数据低于部分投资者担心的水平，市场因此松了口气， 这一结果"几乎锁定了"9月降息的可能。纽约梅隆银行宏观策略师约翰·维利斯认为，疲软的就业数据叠 加本次通胀表现，使美联储有更多理由下调政策利率。 目前市场预计，9月17日降息25个基点的概率已超过 ...

美国7月CPI数据公布： · 总体CPI：环比 +0.2%（符合预期），同比 2.7%（略低于预期的 2.8%）。 特朗普愤怒地发帖称，在关税恐慌的背景下，通货膨胀率却没有上升： 数万亿美元正通过关税流入（美国），这对我们的国家、股市、总体财富以及几乎所有方面都极其有 利。已经有证据证明，即便到了现在这个阶段，关税也没有引发通胀，或者给国家带来其他问题，除了 大量现金源源不断地涌进财政部的金库。此外，事实也表明，在大多数情况下，消费者根本没有在支付 这些关税，主要是企业和各国政府——其中很多是外国的——在埋单。 但大卫·所罗门（高盛董事长兼CEO）和高盛拒绝在应得之处给予肯定。他们很早以前就在市场反应和 关税问题上做出了错误预测，而且错得离谱，就像他们在很多事情上都错了一样。我认为，大卫应该去 找一个新的经济学家，或者干脆专注于做DJ，而不是操心经营一家大型金融机构。 高盛首席经济学家 Jan Hatzius 的最新测算是这样的： · 核心CPI（剔除食品和能源）：环比 +0.3%（符合预期），同比 3.1%（略高于预期的 3.0%），是 2 月 以来最高。 数据公布后，各个市场都在诉说着自己对CPI数据的理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive performance of the US stock market, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, following the release of the July CPI data which was below expectations [1][9]. Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [3]. - Housing costs were the main driver of the CPI increase, rising by 0.2%, while food prices remained stable and energy prices decreased by 1.1% [4]. Labor Market Insights - The average real weekly earnings increased by 1.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in July, with the average hourly earnings rising by 1.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. The average weekly earnings reached $388.01, an increase of $5.51 compared to the previous year [5]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 6.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 93.4%. For October, the probability of maintaining rates is 2.4%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 37.7% and a 50 basis point cut at 59.9% [5]. Stock Market Performance - On August 12, the three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 483.52 points (1.10%), the Nasdaq up 296.50 points (1.39%), and the S&P 500 up 72.37 points (1.13%). Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached all-time highs [1][9]. - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with ON Semiconductor rising over 6%, Intel over 5%, and Meta approaching a market cap of $2 trillion [9]. Automotive Sector Developments - The prices of new cars remained unchanged due to tariffs, while used car and truck prices increased by 0.5%. Transportation and healthcare service prices both rose by 0.8% [4]. - Tesla's stock rose by 0.53%, with a notable increase in electric vehicle sales attributed to significant price cuts, coinciding with the expiration of federal electric vehicle tax credits [11].

Market Overview - US July CPI increase was lower than expected, leading investors to increase bets on a Fed rate cut in September [5] - Major US stock indices rose over 1%, with the Dow Jones up 483.52 points (1.10%), Nasdaq up 296.50 points (1.39%), and S&P 500 up 72.37 points (1.14%) [1] - Nasdaq and S&P 500 both reached new intraday highs during trading [1] Sector Performance - Strong performance in sectors such as airline services and semiconductors, with Circle (CRCL.US) rising 1.3% and Intel (INTC.US) up 5.62% [1] - Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 1.49%, with Tencent Music (TME.US) up 11.85% and Niu Technologies (NIU.US) up 11.69% [1] European Market - Mixed performance in European indices, with Germany's DAX30 down 43.06 points (0.18%) and France's CAC40 up 54.90 points (0.71%) [2] Asia-Pacific Market - Nikkei 225 index rose over 2%, while KOSPI index fell 0.53% [3] Commodity Prices - Gold price increased by 0.16% to $3348.09 per ounce, while oil prices fell, with WTI down $0.79 to $63.17 per barrel [3][4] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin rose by 0.95% surpassing $120,000, while Ethereum increased over 9% to $4614.2, nearing its historical high [4] Company News - Circle announced a public offering of 10 million shares, leading to a post-announcement drop of over 6% in its stock price [11] - Perplexity, an AI startup, made a $34.5 billion bid to acquire Google's Chrome browser, significantly higher than its own valuation of $18 billion [10]

8月12日，美国总统特朗普称，"美联储主席鲍威尔现在必须降息"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced its third interest rate cut of the year, lowering the benchmark rate to 3.6%, the lowest level since April 2023, in response to economic conditions and inflation trends [1][2]. Interest Rate Cuts - The RBA's decision to cut rates in August was influenced by more favorable conditions compared to July, where inflation data showed a decrease in the trimmed mean inflation rate from 2.8% in April to 2.4% in May, the lowest since November 2021 [2][3]. - The RBA had previously held rates steady in July, indicating that monthly inflation data alone was not sufficient to justify a rate cut, as they preferred to wait for more comprehensive quarterly data [2][3]. Economic Growth Expectations - The RBA has revised its GDP growth forecasts downward, projecting a decrease from 2.1% to 1.7% for 2025, and from 2.2% to 2% for mid-2026 [4]. - The downward revision is attributed to expected low productivity growth, which is anticipated to impact wage growth, income, and household spending [4][5]. Labor Market and Inflation - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in May to 4.3% in June, exceeding the RBA's expectations, which has led analysts to suggest that the RBA should consider further rate cuts [3][4]. - Despite a slight improvement in household income and some financial indicators, the labor market remains tight, with productivity growth not rebounding, keeping unit labor costs high [5][6]. Future Rate Cuts - Analysts expect the RBA to implement another rate cut in November, with potential further cuts in 2024, as the economic outlook remains uncertain [6][7]. - The RBA's Governor has indicated a general agreement with market expectations for additional rate cuts if economic performance does not improve or if unemployment rises significantly [7][8].

凯投宏观：澳储行或将维持每季度一次降息节奏 富国银行：7月CPI数据是检验关税冲击美国消费者钱包的关键 瑞银：预计美国7月核心CPI高于预期，通胀压力将逐步上升 瑞讯银行指出，美国11日宣布不会对进口黄金征收关税，这一消息促使瑞郎上涨。由于瑞士是全球主要 的黄金精炼中心，且已面临美国39%的关税，因此避免对黄金加征关税有助于防止对该国经济造成进一 步的负面影响。如果对黄金加征关税，将严重影响流向美国的黄金供应，这些供应主要来源于加拿大、 墨西哥和瑞士。保持这些供应渠道畅通符合美国的利益。 荷兰国际集团策略师表示，美国7月通胀数据符合预期，市场反应可能有限。投资者在未来数月内将继 续密切关注任何潜在的通胀风险信号。 英国商会公共政策副主任简·格拉顿（Jane Gratton）表示，尽管6月份含奖金的平均工资涨幅降至4.6%受 到企业欢迎，但持续较高的工资增长仍给企业运营带来重大挑战。劳动力成本依然是当前企业面临的最 大压力来源，尤其是全国保险费的上调，已导致部分企业不得不缩减招聘计划或进行裁员，以应对不断 上升的人力支出。格拉顿呼吁政府在即将发布的预算案中避免增加新的企业税负，强调保持企业发展的 活力对于保障就 ...

智通财经APP获悉，经济学家预计最新消费者价格数据将显示通胀小幅上升，但华尔街专业人士并不担 心这会破坏近期股市的涨势。 泰勒写道，回调的主要风险是季节性的，因为标普500指数在过去25年中9月份平均下跌1.5%——但随 后在第四季度上涨4%。 根据彭博社对经济学家的调查中值预测，剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本的核心CPI预计7月份将比6月 份上升0.3%。 美国总统特朗普全面加征全球关税的通胀影响预计将开始体现在最新 CPI 数据中，该数据将于周二开 盘前公布。尽管如此，包括摩根大通和摩根士丹利在内的华尔街投行预计，投资者将对这些担忧置之不 理，并通过关注强劲的企业盈利和降息来保持股价飙升。 摩根大通全球市场情报主管安德鲁·泰勒周一在给客户的一份报告中写道，宏观经济数据仍然"支持看涨 的理由，盈利可能会保持其积极趋势"，并补充说美联储正朝着降息的方向发展。 泰勒认为，任何潜在的通胀上升都可能是暂时的，而且峰值可能会低于预期。事实上，他的团队在周二 CPI数据公布后，将标普500指数进一步上涨的几率定为70%，预测如果数据符合预期或低于预期，该指 数可能上涨2%。 | Core MoM change in CP ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipation surrounding the release of the US July Consumer Price Index (CPI), with expectations of a slight inflation increase that is not expected to alter the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path in September [1][2]. Inflation Expectations - The consensus forecast for the July CPI indicates a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from June, and a year-over-year increase from 2.7% to 2.8%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, marking the highest level since February [2][3]. Institutional Forecasts - Various financial institutions have provided their forecasts for the July CPI, with the median forecast showing a month-over-month increase of 0.24% and a year-over-year increase of 2.8% for the headline CPI, while the core CPI is expected to rise by 0.31% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year [3]. Tariff Impact - The data will serve as a critical signal to assess the impact of new tariffs on consumer prices. Wells Fargo notes that the data will further validate the inflationary effects of tariff increases, although the distribution of the burden among consumers, domestic sellers, and foreign exporters remains unclear [5][6]. Employment and Rate Cut Expectations - Following a significant drop in non-farm employment data, analysts believe that as long as inflation does not exhibit extreme overheating, a rate cut in September is almost certain. The probability of a 25 basis point cut is currently estimated at 89% [7][17]. Market Reactions - Goldman Sachs suggests that as long as the core CPI does not exceed a month-over-month increase of 0.44%, the market will view tariffs as a short-term influence, limiting their impact on rate cut expectations [8][12]. Price Trends - Key price trends expected in the July CPI report include a 0.75% increase in used car prices, a 0.2% decrease in new car prices, a 2% increase in airfare prices, and a direct contribution of approximately 0.12 percentage points to the core inflation month-over-month increase from tariffs [11]. Future Inflation Projections - Goldman Sachs predicts that excluding tariff impacts, underlying inflation trends will further decline, primarily driven by easing pressures from housing rents and the labor market. By December 2025, core CPI and core PCE year-over-year increases are expected to be 3.3%, dropping to 2.5% when excluding tariff effects [15]. Data Quality Concerns - There are concerns regarding the quality of data collection for the CPI, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended price collection in some cities, leading to a higher estimation ratio. This could result in greater volatility in monthly data and potential significant revisions [20][21]. Market Volatility - Following the CPI release, market volatility is expected to increase, with predictions of a 0.70% fluctuation, the highest since May of this year. The volatility index (VIX) is currently at a low level, indicating potential for significant market reactions [24].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump appointed Stephen Moore as a temporary member of the Federal Reserve Board, filling the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, who resigned earlier [1] Group 1 - Stephen Moore's term will last until January 31, 2026, coinciding with the end of Kugler's term [1] - Moore, as the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, supports Trump's tax policies, believing they will stimulate economic growth and reduce the fiscal deficit [1] - He argues that high tariffs will not lead to increased inflation and is expected to advocate for further interest rate cuts within the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - There is an anticipated divergence between Moore's views and those of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell and most committee members, who prefer to wait for clearer impacts of tariffs before making decisions [1] - Trump still needs to find a long-term successor for the position, which will require Senate approval [1]