投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-11 股指期货：延续温和上⾏态势 股指期权：维持谨慎 国债期货：债市情绪偏弱 股指期货方面，昨日盘面延续温和上扬态势，其中地产、保险、 煤炭、油气领涨，其中体现几个逻辑，其一，政治局会议临近，对于地产 政策落地预期提升，其二，反内卷、供给侧的预期进一步强化，资金预计 在国企占比更高的产业链落地概率更大，其三，银行、保险高股息的特征 继续吸引中长期资金介入。同时观察盘面，涨停家数66家，跌停家数14 家，涨停家数处于中等偏低水平，显示大金融行情对盘面形成一定分流作 用。故短线高度我们倾向与大金融板块的持续性有关，若继续发力则向上 空间打开。 股指期权方面，昨日标的表现仍然偏强，上证50指数上涨0. 62%，而上证指数突破3500点，盘面强势延续。期权端，量能变动不大， 表明市场并未出现大规模上涨追高交易；波动率方面，仍有窄幅抬升， 但抬升斜率较周初再度放缓。情绪指标方面，持仓量PCR冲高，来到阶段 性峰值，而比值PCR再度探底，多数临近前低水平，两者分别从期权卖方 和期权买方市场表明当前投资者情绪再度谨慎。综上，操 ...

广期所称，经研究决定，自2025年7月14日结算时起，多晶硅期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为9%，投机交 易保证金标准调整为11%，套期保值交易保证金标准调整为10%。 有业内人士表示，交易所适时发布"提保扩板"政策，一方面可让火热的多晶硅市场适当降温，另一方面 也有助于防控市场风险。 7月3日工信部召开光伏行业制造业企业座谈会，坚决落实中央财经委第六次会议关于纵深推进全国统一 大市场建设的决策部署。 光伏玻璃行业积极响应"反内卷"政策导向。 6月29日国内十大光伏玻璃厂决定7月开始集体减产，减产规模预计将达到30%。 大全能源投资者关系活动记录表显示，行业硅料库存约40万吨。结合产业历史规律及当前供需格局，行 业硅料库存规模满足2个月的下游需求水平。 随着多晶硅期货行情不断升温以及波动明显加大，7月10日晚间，广期所紧急发布"提保扩板"政策。 智通财经APP获悉，据 SMM，为避免光伏玻璃企业之间竞争加剧使得市场恶性循环，多数玻璃企业计 划 7 月开始减产改善供应端，行业倡议减产规模达到 30%。 广发证券研究预计在现阶段短期更多依靠市场化手段实现供给收缩，老旧产能在上一轮下行周期中基本 出清。 光伏产业链相关港 ...

中金研究 6 月 CPI 同比由负转正，主要受工业消费品价格回升带动，除国际原油和贵金属价格上涨外，反 " 内卷 " 打压 " 价格战 " 、促消费政策提振，汽车、家电价 格同比改善， PPI 同比中汽车制造、光伏、锂电池价格同比均改善。但 PPI 同比跌幅进一步走扩、环比连续第 7 个月负增，供过于求、需求不足仍是主要 矛盾。向前看，反 " 内卷式 " 竞争拉开序幕，提振消费和纠正无序同质竞争在供需两端同时发力，有望助益物价回升。 点击小程序查看报告原文 1. 工业消费品价格回升助力CPI同比转正 6月CPI同比结束连续四个月的负增，由上月的-0.1%转为0.1%，主要受工业消费品价格的拉动，能源与核心商品同比均改善，后者带动核心CPI同比升至 14个月新高的0.7%（5月为0.6%）。 ► 肉价弱，果蔬强，食品通胀微升。 CPI食品价格同比下降-0.3%，比上月收窄0.1个百分点。其中，受生猪供给持续释放和去产能推进，猪肉价格同比由 上月的上涨3.1%转为下降8.5%，边际拖累CPI同比0.14ppt；因部分地区高温天气和供应地调整，应季蔬菜价格同比较上月-8.3%大幅收窄至-0.4%，鲜果价 格同比亦由 ...

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "zero-kilometer used cars" is gaining attention in the market, where vehicles are sold at prices significantly lower than new cars, raising concerns about market dynamics and consumer protection [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The circulation of "zero-kilometer used cars" is increasing, with 12.7% of the used car market consisting of vehicles registered for less than 3 months and having mileage under 50 kilometers, indicating a significant impact on new car sales and pricing structures [2]. - The presence of these vehicles is expected to disrupt the profit margins of new car retailers, leading to a potential decline in new car sales and increased pressure on manufacturers to adopt aggressive market strategies [2][4]. Group 2: Consumer Risks - Consumers purchasing "zero-kilometer used cars" may face hidden risks, including the loss of warranty rights, as many manufacturers only provide warranty coverage to the first owner, which could lead to high repair costs for subsequent owners [3]. - The export of "zero-kilometer used cars" to overseas markets has raised concerns about anti-dumping allegations and potential tariffs, posing a threat to the reputation and interests of Chinese automotive manufacturers [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - The industry is experiencing a push for regulatory measures to address the "zero-kilometer used car" phenomenon, with the Ministry of Commerce and the China Automotive Industry Association advocating for fair competition and the cessation of price wars [4][5]. - Initiatives are being implemented to promote healthy market practices, including enhancing product consistency checks and enforcing regulations against unfair competition, aimed at fostering a sustainable automotive industry [4][5].

Group 1 - President Trump is urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but several factors hinder this, including the need for consensus among the Federal Reserve Board members and the Fed's commitment to independence from political influence [2] - The recent surge in the stock market has led to early termination of several financial products linked to stock indices, allowing investors to lock in profits but also presenting challenges in reallocating funds [2] - International oil prices have seen a significant drop, with NYMEX WTI crude falling over 2% and ICE Brent crude nearly 2%, influenced by OPEC's discussions on production adjustments [2] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, China's automotive industry reported a profit margin of only 5%, with the total profit from 30 million vehicles being less than that of Toyota's 9 million vehicles, highlighting the competitive challenges faced by Chinese manufacturers [3] - Bitcoin reached a historic high of $112,000, marking a 3% increase in a single day, with a year-to-date rise of nearly 19%, amidst mixed views from Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation and potential interest rate cuts [3] - The basic pension for retirees will increase by 2% starting January 1, 2025, aimed at benefiting low- to middle-income groups, reflecting a comprehensive adjustment considering price and wage factors [3] Group 3 - The Chinese government has introduced 19 policy measures to stabilize employment, focusing on reducing burdens for enterprises and enhancing loan support, particularly for recent graduates and migrant workers [4] - The recent "anti-involution" measures proposed by the Central Financial Committee are expected to impact the stock market, with analysts suggesting that the market is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding policy implementation and capacity adjustments [5] - A significant financial scandal involving the company 瑞斯康达 has emerged, with allegations of inflating revenues by approximately 6.32 billion yuan and net profits by about 1.17 billion yuan, leading to a sharp decline in the company's stock price [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" movement is a significant transformation aimed at promoting high-quality development in major industries by restructuring competition rules and breaking path dependence, shifting competition from "low-level internal consumption" to "high-quality co-creation" [1][2][4] Group 1: Industry Context - The "anti-involution" movement is not merely a cooling of industries but a necessary step to address the detrimental effects of "involution-style" competition, which has trapped companies in a cycle of low prices and low quality [2][3] - Historical competition in China was characterized by scale expansion and price competition, which has now become outdated and counterproductive in the current economic environment [1][2] Group 2: Governance Changes - The governance logic is shifting from "administrative dominance" to "rule of law," with the revision of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law targeting practices like "forced low-price sales" and "platform choice," thereby protecting normal pricing rights while curbing malicious competition [3] - The focus of governance is moving from merely monitoring production capacity to facilitating the free flow of resources across the national market, allowing companies to collaborate with leading technology partners rather than being restricted by local procurement policies [3] Group 3: Long-term Goals - The objective of the "anti-involution" movement is to foster long-term growth by encouraging innovation and providing tax incentives for R&D investments, steering resources towards technological advancements rather than price wars [3][4] - This approach aims to guide companies to compete based on quality and innovation rather than price, promoting a rational competitive environment where collaboration and technological upgrades are prioritized [3][4]

英伟达盘中市值突破4万亿美元 点击按钮▲立即报名 国办发布19条稳就业举措 7月10日消息，国务院办公厅近日印发《关于进一步加大稳就业政策支持力度的通知》，从7个方面提出19条政策举措。《通知》明确，扩大稳 岗扩岗专项贷款支持范围；加大失业保险稳岗返还政策力度，中小微企业返还比例由不超过企业及其职工上年度实际缴纳失业保险费的60%最高 提至不超过90%，大型企业返还比例由不超过30%最高提至不超过50%；实施阶段性缓缴社会保险费政策；扩大社会保险补贴范围等。 《通知》提出，对符合条件的吸纳16—24岁登记失业青年就业的企业和社会组织，按照每人不超过1500元的标准发放一次性扩岗补助。此外， 《通知》还就优化就业服务、强化就业援助、开展就业监测、切实加强组织保障等方面作出多项部署。（综合央视新闻） ｜点评｜ 稳就业不仅是稳经济、扩内需，还关系着众多家庭的生计和整个社会的稳定。这两年国家已经推出了一系列稳就业政策，目前青年失 业率仍处于高位，7月是毕业生离校和新一轮秋招的过渡期，此时加码稳就业，也加大了对失业青年就业的支持力度。企业尤其是民企，是经济 的毛细血管，更是吸纳就业的主力军。从具体措施来看，稳就业政策也 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠、 耿佩璇 联系人 | 侯倩楠 摘要 中央财经委会议提出"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争…推动落后产能有序退出"为"反内卷"指明方向。 相比过往，本轮"内卷"症结何在，如何破解"内卷"困境？系统分析，供参考。 一、本轮"反内卷"，有何不同？站位更高，覆盖面更广，协同性更强 中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，以纵深推进全国统一大市场建设为主题，为"综合整治内卷式竞争"政 策部署指明方向 。 会议提出"五统一、一开放"要求，同时强调"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争…推动 落后产能有序退出"等，进一步明确行后续"反内卷"政策路径。 本轮"反内卷"站位更高，覆盖面更广，协同性更强。 本轮"反内卷"，地方政府（招商引资）、企业（过 度投资、降价）、居民（日均工作时间增加）可能都在讨论的范畴中。且"内卷"领域民营经济占比较高 下，本轮"反内卷"协同性或更强，更突出政策与市场机制配合。同时，本轮"反内卷"更强调区域治理， 明确将推动全国统一大市场建设列为核心任务。 见微知著，部分企业"内卷"症结或部分缘于营收增速大幅回落与固定费用刚性的矛盾，使得其不得不采 用降价等方式追 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：憧憬 2015 重现 | | | 7 月 10 日，"反内卷"叙事余音未尽，棚改重启预期成为新的主线，股市普涨，债市齐跌，部分商品迎来强势 反弹行情。 国内资产方面，股市，大盘稳中有升，上证指数、沪深 300、中证红利分别上涨 0.48%、0.47%、0.62%；科 技很快仍在调整，科创 50、恒生科技下跌 0.32%、0.29%；小微盘行情相对平淡，中证 2000 下跌 0.05%，万得 微盘股指上涨 0.01%。债市，10 年、30 年国债收益率分别上行 1.45bp、1.60bp 至 1.66%、1.88%；10 年、30年 国债期货主力合约下跌 0.16%、0.36%。 海外方面，美国新一轮关税交易情绪整体进入缓和阶段，美元指数延续震荡走势，黄金价格亦维持窄幅波 动，日内振幅控制在 0-0.5%区间。不过，随着 8 日特朗普提出对进口铜加征 50%关税，铜价波动较大，COMEX 铜价昨日下跌 2.5%后，今日开盘后明显反弹，涨幅一度超过 2%，LME 铜亦表现偏强，日内上涨 ...

作为物理学家，张杰在激光聚变物理与高能量密度物理前沿研究中做出重要学术成就，2015年， 他获得了激光聚变与高能量密度物理领域国际最重要的奖项——泰勒奖章。与此同时，张杰还是一 名教育家，他曾于2006年至2017年在上海交通大学担任校长，带领学校取得快速发展的同时，他 和学生们打成一片，被学生们昵称为"杰哥"，也被认为是"最受欢迎的校长"之一。 以下是经济观察报与张杰的对话： 经济观察报：你对年轻科学家的面貌有什么观察？ 张杰： 我的团队里很多成员都是年轻人，他们比我这个年代的科学家更加聪明、更加自信。 中国科学院院士张杰认为，对想要进入科研的年轻人来说，最 重要的就是要学会面对失败，每一个人面对失败的心态，以及 失败后重新站起来的能力，是走向成功必不可少的要素。 作者： 张铃 封图： 未来论坛 7月8日，在未来科学大奖十周年庆典期间，中国科学院院士、中国物理学会理事长、2021未来科 学大奖获奖者张杰接受了经济观察报等媒体的采访。除了回答科学问题外，他还重点回答了年轻人 在当下面临的困惑、如何面对失败等问题，也谈到了"内卷"和"躺平"。 张杰认为，对想要进入科研的年轻人来说，最重要的就是要学会面对失败，每 ...