在现货市场方面，摩根大通截至7月28日当周的客户调查发现，多头减少，而空头仓位创下自6月2日以来的最高;中性仓位保持不变。整体净多头仓位为5月 以来最低。 智通财经APP获悉，在市场正准备迎接美联储预计将揭示未来几个月降息力度的会议之际，债券交易员过去一周削减了对美国国债的押注。摩根大通的每周 美国国债客户调查显示，在周三美联储会议之前，净多头头寸降至两个月来的最低水平，显示投资者的看涨情绪有所减弱。尽管市场暗示的美联储政策预期 保持稳定，互换合约的价格显示，美联储年底前的降息幅度将略低于0.5个百分点，且降息最早可能从9月份开始。 这一变化出现在诸多相互冲突的因素令美联储中期政策前景变得不明朗之际。美联储主席鲍威尔正面临来自美国总统特朗普要求其降息的压力，而本周他可 能还会遭遇其他美联储官员的异议。 与此同时，美国经济在特朗普贸易战压力下展现出韧性，这也支撑了对美国国债的看空观点，即由于利率可能在更长时间内维持高位，美国国债价格将继续 承压。最近几天美国与欧盟、日本达成的协议缓解了部分不确定性，也增强了美联储维持较高借贷成本的理由。 Insight Investment Management北美固定收益主管 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market declined on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulling back from historical highs as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy statement and reacted to disappointing earnings reports from some companies [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 204.57 points to 44,632.99, a decrease of 0.46%; the S&P 500 dropped 18.91 points to 6,370.86, down 0.30%; and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 80.29 points to 21,098.29, a decline of 0.38% [1] Company Earnings - UnitedHealth reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.08, below the market expectation of $4.59, and a 40% year-over-year decline. The company lowered its full-year EPS guidance to at least $16, below the expected $20.40, and indicated it may take until 2026 to return to profit growth, leading to a 7.5% drop in its stock price [2][3] - Boeing's stock fell by 4.4% despite reporting Q2 revenue of $22.75 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $21.68 billion. However, the company reported a core EPS loss of $1.24, raising investor concerns about its outlook [3] - Merck's stock declined by 1.7% after reporting Q2 sales of $15.81 billion, slightly above expectations, but with adjusted EPS of $2.13, down from the previous year. The company plans to continue suspending exports of its HPV vaccine to China and aims to save $3 billion through layoffs [3] - United Parcel Service (UPS) saw its stock plummet by 10.6% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.55, slightly below the expected $1.56. The lack of full-year revenue and profit margin guidance raised concerns about its profitability amid global trade uncertainties, contributing to a 2.3% drop in the Dow Jones Transportation Index, marking its largest single-day decline in two months [3] - Procter & Gamble's stock fell by 0.3%, reporting Q4 net sales of $20.89 billion and core EPS of $1.48, both slightly above expectations. The company projected core EPS growth of 0%-4% for FY2026, below the market's expectation of around 7% [3] - Novo Nordisk's stock plummeted approximately 22% to $53.94, a three-year low, after lowering its sales and profit forecasts for FY2025, citing poor sales performance of its weight loss drug Wegovy [4] Market Sentiment and Economic Data - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Meta Platforms down 2.46%, Tesla down 1.35%, Apple down 1.3%, Amazon down 0.76%, Nvidia down 0.70%, while Microsoft slightly increased by 0.01% and Google A rose by 1.65% [4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.35%, with notable declines in stocks such as Li Auto down over 6%, JD.com down over 3%, and Baidu down nearly 3% [5] - Economic data indicated a narrowing of the US trade deficit to $86 billion in June, a decrease of 10.8%, with imports down 4.2% and exports slightly down by 0.6% [5] - Job openings in the US fell to 7.44 million in June, below the expected 7.5 million, but remained stable over the past year, indicating robust labor demand [5] - Consumer confidence in the US improved in July, with the Conference Board's confidence index rising to 97.2, slightly above expectations [5] Upcoming Events - Investors are focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll report to be released on Friday, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during its Wednesday meeting [6]

来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 美联储将于今日晚些时候开始为期两天的政策会议。尽管美联储预计将在周三维持利率不变，但交易员 将密切分析政策制定者的言论，以判断未来行动的时机。 与此同时，印度准备迎接美国对部分出口产品加征关税，税率可能高达25%，因为它选择在华盛顿设定 的最后期限前坚持做出新的贸易让步。 其他方面，美国国债在发行了440亿美元的七年期国债后，继续走高。在债务发行计划公布前，长期债 券领涨，这可能为美国计划如何控制这些期限债券的收益率提供线索。美元表现优于大多数发达国家货 币。 道指主要成分股联合健康集团和波音的季度业绩未能给投资者留下深刻印象。联合包裹服务公司公布第 二季度利润低于预期，成为特朗普总统全面征收关税的最新受害者。 科技巨头Meta、微软、亚马逊和苹果将于本周晚些时候公布财报，这可能会在未来几天引领华尔街的 走势。 经济消息方面，7月份消费者信心指数升至97.2，高于预期。6月份，美国职位空缺和招聘人数有所下 降，这表明劳动力市场活动进一步放缓。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请 ...

【行情回顾】 周二（7月29日），周一，美元指数大幅上扬，盘中突破98关口后持续走高，最终收涨1%，报98.633。 受累于美元走强和风险情绪回温，现货黄金连跌四日，美盘短线跳水，一度逼近3300美元大关，随后有 所反弹，最终收跌0.68%，收报3314.63美元/盎司；现货白银收平，报38.17美元/盎司。 【要闻汇总】 在8月1日，美国相关贸易协定即将到期。当前，美国已同部分国家达成了协议，在此背景下，黄金价格 承受着显著压力。现阶段市场的核心焦点依然聚焦于中美贸易谈判的进展态势。 随着全球贸易乐观情绪的上升，尤其是美国和欧盟贸易协定的达成，投资者正将注意力转向风险资产， 远离白银等传统避险资产。 【交易思路】 国际黄金：下方关注3300美元或3270美元附近支撑；上方关注3324美元或3336美元附近阻力； 现货白银：下方关注37.85美元或37.50美元支撑；上方关注38.35美元或38.50美元阻力。 此外，本周金融市场还将迎来重磅事件——美联储利率决议以及非农就业数据公布。就利率决议而言， 市场普遍预估利率将维持不变。然而，特朗普却明确表态，认为美联储本周应当实施降息举措。一旦出 现意外降息的情况 ...

Group 1 - Asian stock markets have declined for the third consecutive day, with Vietnam's VN Index dropping 4% as optimism from recent trade agreements fades [1][5] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell by 0.8%, while the US dollar index rose by 0.3%, reaching its highest level since late June [1][5] - Investors are shifting focus to key economic indicators as the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming policy meeting [1][6] Group 2 - The EU-US trade agreement has sparked controversy, with critics arguing it poses risks to the European automotive industry and competitiveness [2] - The euro has depreciated by 0.3% against the dollar, reaching its lowest level in five weeks, reflecting market skepticism about the trade deal [2][5] - Market reactions to the trade agreement have become more rational, with investors prioritizing hard data to assess economic and policy outlooks [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is a key focus for the market, with significant economic data expected to be released this week [6] - Analysts predict that the data will indicate a rebound in economic activity for the second quarter, influencing short-term policy decisions [6] - Gold prices are projected to rise significantly, potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by the Fed's rate cuts and increasing global gold reserves [6]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a decline, reaching a three-week low of $3301.29 per ounce, closing at $3314.44, marking a drop of approximately 0.66% [1] - The downward trend in gold prices is influenced by the strong rebound of the US dollar index, improved global risk appetite, and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [1] - The recent US-EU trade agreement has alleviated fears of a global economic downturn, boosting risk assets and putting pressure on gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - The US and EU have reached a trade agreement that sets import tariffs on EU goods at 15%, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% [4] - The agreement includes a commitment from the EU to make strategic purchases worth up to $750 billion during Trump's term, further enhancing market optimism and reducing demand for gold [4] - Ongoing US-China trade talks provide some support for gold prices, as negotiations aim to extend the trade truce by 90 days, although no significant breakthroughs are expected [5] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50%, with market expectations for a potential rate cut in September [6] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a bearish trend for gold, with four consecutive days of declines suggesting strong selling pressure [8] - Short-term price movements may challenge the support level around $3250, with potential further declines if this level is breached [8] - Current trading activity shows gold prices stabilizing around the $3300 mark, with traders advised to monitor for potential short positions near $3330 [8] Market Sentiment - The US bond market reflects optimistic sentiment, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rising to 4.414% and 4.962%, respectively [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices continue to perform strongly, indicating a preference for risk assets among investors [2] - Despite the positive sentiment in equities, the upcoming earnings season and key economic data releases may introduce new volatility into the market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend due to the strengthening of the US dollar and improved risk sentiment following a trade agreement between the US and EU [1][2] - Gold prices recently fell to a near three-week low, trading around $3310 per ounce, with a significant drop of $138 from a recent high of $3438 [2] - The market is currently volatile, with expectations for significant price movements in the coming days due to upcoming economic data releases [1][2] Group 2 - The US crude oil price is trading around $66.97 per barrel, having increased nearly 3% recently, influenced by the US-EU trade agreement and geopolitical developments [1] - Technical analysis suggests that crude oil may have some upward potential, with a focus on resistance levels around $69 [3] - Day trading strategies for both gold and oil suggest short positions for gold and long positions for oil, with specific target prices and stop-loss levels outlined [3][4]

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.27 2025-07-28 美日协议提振市场信心，欧央行按兵不动 [Table_Authors] 海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 美日贸易谈判取得进展，提振全球市场情绪，本周全球股市普遍上涨。高利率与高 不确定性下，美国房地产市场需求疲弱，企业资本开支相对谨慎，制造业 PMI 走弱 但服务业表现仍强，经济尚具有韧性。欧央行维持利率不变，9 月或继续按兵不动。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 [Table_Report] [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现：上周（2025.7.21-2025.7.25），全球大类资产价 格中，主要经济体股市普遍上涨。其中，日经 225 上涨 4.1%，恒生 指数上涨 2.3%，上证综指上涨 1.7%，标普 500 指数上涨 1.5%，发 达市场股票指数上涨 1.4%，新兴市场股票指数上涨 0.7%。大宗商品 价格涨跌互现，其中，COMEX 铜上涨 4.0%，南华商品指数上涨 2.7%， 伦敦金现下跌 0.4%，标普-高盛商品指数下跌 1.1% ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's public confrontation with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the rising renovation costs of the Fed's headquarters, which Trump claims increased from $2.5 billion to $3.1 billion [10][12]. - This confrontation is interpreted as an attempt by Trump to pressure Powell into lowering interest rates from the current range of 4.25%-4.5% to 1%, aiming to reduce government borrowing costs ahead of the election [12][14]. - The event highlights a significant challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve, with Trump's actions seen as a direct attack on the institution's autonomy [18]. Group 2 - The European Central Bank, led by Christine Lagarde, has decided to maintain interest rates and is currently in a "wait-and-see" mode due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies [2]. - Intel's recent actions, including exceeding second-quarter revenue expectations and cutting investments in chip factories, signal that the tech industry is feeling pressure and is preparing for potential economic challenges [2]. - The luxury goods sector, represented by LVMH, is also experiencing a downturn, with sales declining and demand in the Japanese market weakening, indicating broader economic struggles [2]. Group 3 - JPMorgan's trading division remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, citing progress in trade agreements, positive economic data, and a resurgence in merger activities as factors that could sustain market growth [4]. - However, there are concerns about whether stock prices are overvalued and the potential for a repeat of the "meme stock" bubble, although JPMorgan dismisses these worries as unfounded [4]. - The article suggests that if macroeconomic data continues to be strong and a trade agreement is reached between the U.S. and Europe, the market could see significant upward movement [4].

特朗普又出手了。这次，他不是冲着中国或者欧洲，而是直接冲着美联储和鲍威尔下了狠手。 一位现任美国总统，亲自跑到美联储，用纸条质问对方翻修"花了多少钱"，这种场面，真不是每天都能看到。 美联储总部的两栋历史建筑，在特朗普的眼里，成了天价装修现场。特朗普直接指出花费已经从25亿美元飙到"看起来大约是31亿美元，涨了很多"。鲍威尔 急着澄清，说总统的小纸条"把第三栋也算进去了"，数据有点夸大。 在特朗普看来，只有鲍威尔愿意更快更多地降息，房贷、国债、美国经济的各种成本才能一起"跳水"。他一口咬定鲍威尔成了自己"政治对手"的帮手， 还"成全了"美国的那些民主党人。 这话听着像是抱怨，实际却是警告。他拿欧洲等国家当对照，说"别人都开始降息了"，美国居然按兵不动。特朗普还把账算得明明白白："要是直接降息三 个百分点，咱们每年省下超过1万亿美元。"听着像做生意的账本，可这回账本里的数字够刺激。 问题在于，美联储并不急着听特朗普的话。 虽然市场各种"风向"苗头都指向美联储可能会进一步降息，但鲍威尔当前的态度就是——下周政策会议，利率还得按兵不动。目前美联储大佬们的内部讨 论，是最早也要拖到9月才考虑降息。 这让特朗普很不舒服 ...