摘要今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于1031元/克附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 1025.15元/克，涨幅1.36%，最高上探至1031.64元/克，最低触及1011.06元/克。目前来看，现货黄金短 线偏向看涨走势。黄金高开高走，亚市盘初最高触及1031.64元/克，目前价格自高点震荡。 今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于1031元/克附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报1025.15 元/克，涨幅1.36%，最高上探至1031.64元/克，最低触及1011.06元/克。目前来看，现货黄金短线偏向看 涨走势。黄金高开高走，亚市盘初最高触及1031.64元/克，目前价格自高点震荡。 【要闻速递】 特朗普表示对司法部调查美联储一事并不知情，并称鲍威尔在利率政策和办公楼翻修上"表现不佳"。此 前，司法部已于上周五向美联储发出传票。 鲍威尔回应称，调查涉及他去年6月就美联储办公楼翻新向参议院提交的证词，并强调没人能凌驾于法 律之上，但这一"前所未有的行动"应放在政府持续施压的背景中理解。他指出，刑事指控的威胁实质是 因为美联储基于公众利益独立制定利率，而非迎合总统偏好，这正是过去一年特 ...

当地时间1月11日晚，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔通过美联储官网网站和官方社交账号发布视频声明，证实自己正面临联邦检察官的刑事调查。 鲍威尔直指此次调查是特朗普政府的政治施压手段，核心原因是美联储坚持基于经济数据制定利率政策，未顺从总统的降息要求，而非调查所宣称的国会 证词或办公楼翻新项目问题。 调查缘起：传票指向国会证词与翻新项目，鲍威尔称系"借口" 鲍威尔在声明中披露，1月9日（周五），美国司法部向美联储送达大陪审团传票，以其2025年6月在参议院银行委员会的证词为由威胁发起刑事起诉。该 证词部分涉及美联储一项为期多年的历史性办公楼翻新项目。 但鲍威尔明确驳斥这一调查理由："此次新的威胁与我去年6月的证词或美联储办公楼翻新无关，也与国会的监督职责无关——美联储已通过证词和公开披 露充分向国会通报项目进展，这些都只是借口。"他强调，调查的本质是"美联储能否继续基于证据和经济状况制定货币政策，还是会屈服于政治压力与恐 吓"。 据《纽约时报》援引知情官员消息，此次调查由哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室负责，该办公室负责人珍妮宁·皮罗曾担任纽约州检察官和福克斯新闻主 持人，由特朗普亲自任命。一名熟悉调查的人士向CNBC证 ...

经济学 | 中央银⾏ 特朗普推动美联储改⾰，全球利率路径出现分歧 由于唐纳德·特朗普⼊主⽩宫第⼆年所造成的经济迷雾，各国央⾏正在摸索前 进，全球利率将出现⼀段时间的分化。 彭博经济研究指出，疫情后紧缩和放松的周期正在让位于发达经济体之间同 步性较低的阶段。 G10货币汇率路径正在分化 其预测预计，在未来⼀年左右的时间⾥，全球交易量最⼤的货币的利率⾛势 将呈现⼀系列变化，因为不确定性和波动性（通常来⾃华盛顿）正在考验各 国央⾏⾏⻓的神经。 美联储将⽐以往任何时候都更加引⼈注⽬。其决策者将仔细权衡来⾃美国经 济的各种复杂信号，同时还要⾯对⼀位公开呼吁降息的强硬总统挑选的新任 主席的局⾯。 US Euro area Japan UK Canada Switzerland Australia Sweden New Zealand Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2025 2026 2027 -1 - 100 basis poin Change vs end of 20 资料来源：彭博经济研究预测 彭博新闻社报道 2026年1⽉12⽇上午8:00（GMT+8） 节省 翻译 BE预测美联储在2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Ray Dalio warns about the current investment frenzy in the artificial intelligence sector, suggesting it has entered the early stages of a bubble [1] - Dalio highlights that the performance of the U.S. stock market is expected to lag behind non-U.S. stocks and asset classes like gold by 2025, with gold prices having increased over 60% last year [1] - He notes that investors are increasingly favoring non-U.S. assets over U.S. stocks, as well as non-U.S. bonds over U.S. bonds and cash [1] Group 2 - Dalio mentions that the global stock market experienced turbulence last autumn, with growing concerns about a potential bubble in AI-related stocks, which suppressed market sentiment and increased selling risks [1] - He points out that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policies have further heightened investor anxiety [1] - Dalio expresses that there is significant uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction and productivity growth outlook, indicating that the new Fed Chair and the Federal Open Market Committee are likely to lean towards lowering nominal and real interest rates [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's influence on the cryptocurrency market is significant and expected to continue until 2026 due to policy maker disagreements [2] - The Fed implemented three rate cuts in 2025, with the most recent cut on December 10, bringing rates to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [2] - Despite the high rates, only one additional rate cut is anticipated in 2026, reflecting uncertainty in economic indicators such as labor market data and inflation trends [2][4] Group 2 - The next Fed meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, 2026, which may set the tone for the first quarter [4] - Investor predictions show a 20% probability of a 25 basis point cut in January, increasing to 45% for the March meeting [4] - The December dot plot indicates significant divergence among policymakers regarding rate predictions for 2026, with equal numbers expecting zero, one, or two cuts [4][6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the Fed's internal divisions are notable, with 12 out of 19 policymakers expecting at least one more cut next year [6] - The baseline scenario anticipates one rate cut in the first quarter, which could enhance liquidity and benefit cryptocurrency inflows [7] - In a bullish scenario, if inflation decreases and unemployment rises, the Fed may cut rates twice, boosting demand for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies [7] Group 4 - The cautious approach of the Fed has dampened the enthusiasm of cryptocurrency traders, despite some signs of easing [8] - A new Fed chair may alter the overall rate policy stance and the attitude towards risk assets like cryptocurrencies [8] - When rates decline, investors typically seek high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, leading to increased demand and upward price pressure [9]

Group 1 - The discussion on interest rate policy is a key focus of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes [1] - The perspectives on inflation and employment issues are highlighted [1] - The impact of the historically longest U.S. government shutdown is also discussed [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Precious Metals and Commodities Market - **Key Drivers**: Quantitative easing, tariff policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and inflation concerns have significantly influenced the prices of precious metals since 2020 [2][4][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Trends**: Precious metals have seen a strong performance, particularly silver and platinum, driven by global economic uncertainty and inflation fears. The internal rate of return (IRR) for precious metal projects can exceed 50%, making them more attractive than copper projects, which typically have an IRR of around 20% [2][6][4]. - **Copper Price Expectations**: The market anticipates copper prices to rise to $8 per pound due to insufficient current prices ($5 per pound) to incentivize new investments and production expansions [8]. - **Shift to Safe-Haven Assets**: Post-pandemic economic recovery in the U.S. has been weak, leading to a shift of funds towards safe-haven assets like precious metals, as confidence in U.S. debt repayment capabilities diminishes [9][11]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical uncertainties have prompted Western countries to accelerate the development of domestic critical mineral resources, impacting supply and prices [10][30]. Additional Important Insights - **Speculative Sentiment in Silver Market**: The decline in the gold-silver ratio indicates heightened speculative sentiment, with retail investors heavily buying silver, which could lead to a reversal of bullish sentiment [5][34]. - **Outlook for Industrial Metals**: The outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic, with expectations of continued leadership in the market, particularly for copper, lithium, and gold [26][29]. - **Valuation of Precious Metals**: Precious metals are currently more attractive compared to other commodities due to lower initial capital expenditures and tighter supply conditions [6][31]. - **Market Volatility**: The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairmanship could lead to increased market volatility, affecting interest rate policies and overall market sentiment [15]. Market Dynamics - **Investment Opportunities**: The current low valuations in the non-ferrous metals sector present significant investment opportunities, with historical data suggesting a positive correlation between low price-to-earnings ratios and market performance [31]. - **Future Price Risks**: The silver market faces potential risks from speculative buying, which could lead to sharp price corrections if sentiment shifts [40][42]. - **Impact of Retail Investors**: Retail investors are expected to play a crucial role in the silver market, potentially driving prices higher in the short term, but their speculative behavior may also lead to volatility [42][43]. Conclusion The precious metals and commodities market is currently influenced by a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical uncertainties, and speculative behaviors. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with significant opportunities for investment, particularly in precious metals and select industrial metals. However, potential risks from market volatility and shifts in investor sentiment must be closely monitored.

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing significant internal divisions regarding interest rate policies, a situation not seen since the 1970s, and this discord is expected to persist until 2026 [1][2][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Challenges - The Federal Reserve has struggled to balance its dual mandate of maximizing employment and price stability, leading to conflicting opinions among committee members on interest rate policies [1][2]. - Despite three successful interest rate cuts in 2025, the next chair may find it challenging to unify the committee if inflation remains high and the job market weak [1][7]. - The internal divisions were highlighted during the summer of 2025 when some members advocated for rate cuts to address a weakening job market, while others expressed concerns about persistent inflation [4][5]. Group 2: Impact of Trump's Policies - The Trump administration's economic policies, including fluctuating tariffs and immigration controls, have caused the Federal Reserve to adopt a wait-and-see approach, complicating their policy decisions [2][3]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's inaction led to attempts to pressure the Fed for rate cuts and even threats to dismiss Chairman Powell, raising concerns about the central bank's independence [2][8]. - The introduction of significant tariffs in 2025 prompted fears among Fed officials that these could lead to sustained inflation, contrary to initial beliefs that the impact would be temporary [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook for 2026 - The Federal Reserve is expected to proceed cautiously in 2026, with only one additional rate cut anticipated, as officials believe the current job market weakness does not warrant urgent action [7][9]. - Economic growth is projected to rebound in 2026 due to fiscal stimulus from tax legislation and the end of the government shutdown, although inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target [7][9]. - The upcoming change in leadership at the Federal Reserve is likely to influence future policy directions, with expectations that the new chair may favor lower interest rates, but challenges remain if inflation persists [7][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 24, 2025, the demand for cross - year funds increased, leading to a structural differentiation in the capital market. The bond market fluctuated and consolidated, while the convertible bond market's major indices rose collectively, with most individual convertible bonds posting gains. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined, and the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The 4th quarter (111th in total) regular meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee in 2025 was held on December 18. It proposed to leverage the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, maintain ample liquidity, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [3]. - On December 24, the central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on December 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan after considering the maturity of 300 billion yuan of MLF this month [4]. - Multiple departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor", proposing 21 key measures to support its high - quality development [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)", with a total of 1679 items, a net increase of 205 items compared to the 2022 edition [5]. - Beijing optimized and adjusted housing purchase restriction policies on December 24, reducing the social security or tax payment requirements and allowing multi - child families to buy an additional property within the 5th Ring Road [6]. - **International News** - On December 24, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 fell to 214,000, while the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 13 was 1.923 million. Consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months [7]. - **Commodities** - On December 24, international crude oil and natural gas futures prices declined. WTI February crude futures fell 0.05% to $58.35 per barrel, Brent February crude futures fell 0.22% to $62.24 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.01% to $4,505.40 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 3.69% to $4.249 per ounce [8][9]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On December 24, the central bank conducted a 26 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan due to the maturity of 46.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [11]. - **Funding Rates** - On December 24, due to the increasing cross - year demand from institutions, the capital market showed a structural differentiation. DR001 dropped 0.69bp to 1.262%, and DR007 dropped 3.05bp to 1.380% [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On December 24, affected by multiple rumors such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and bond purchases, the bond market fluctuated and consolidated. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 remained unchanged at 1.8350%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 dropped 0.05bp to 1.8975% [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Information on the tendering of 25 Discount Treasury Bond 82, 25 Discount Treasury Bond 81, and 25 Coupon Treasury Bond 25 is provided, including their terms, issuance scales, winning yields, and other data [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On December 24, the trading price of one industrial bond, "22 Vanke 04", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 18% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Various companies announced events such as debt defaults, debt restructurings, asset sales, and equity transfers. For example, Sunac China completed its comprehensive overseas debt restructuring, and Wanda's credit ratings were downgraded [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On December 24, the three major A - share stock indices rose collectively, and the convertible bond market also increased. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.71%, 0.75%, and 0.62% respectively [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On December 25, Jin 05 Convertible Bond started its online subscription, and on December 24, Tianneng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to trigger the condition for a downward revision of the conversion price [23]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On December 24, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 1bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3bp to 4.15%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries both narrowed by 2bp [20][21]. - **European Bond Market** - On December 24, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends. France's 10 - year government bond yield rose 1bp, Spain's dropped 1bp, and the UK's remained unchanged [24]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on December 24, price change information of various Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds is provided, including the daily and monthly changes in yields and prices of bonds issued by companies such as Longfor Group and Wanda [26].

转自：智通财经 2025年，美联储在复杂的经济与政治环境中交出了一份充满争议却也颇具韧性的答卷。这一年，联储货 币政策基调从抗通胀转向稳增长，而独立性争议则成为贯穿全年的暗线。 "艰难平衡"中降息3次 过去一年，美联储在实现"充分就业"和"稳定物价"这两个政策目标上出现了冲突——这种情况自上世纪 70年代滞胀时期以来从未出现过。这种局面导致美联储内部出现多年未见的分歧，在利率政策方面截然 相反的意见表态便是明证。 正如年初所料，今年最大的"变数"来自特朗普。尤其是其关税政策。最初，美联储许多官员认为关税只 会导致一次性物价上涨，不会演变成长期通胀。但时至今年的4月2日，特朗普释放"重磅炸弹"——解放 日关税后，更多官员开始担心关税可能会导致更持久的通胀。 美联储官员们利用了夏季几个月的时间进行监测和评估。也正因为如此，今年前八个月，美联储一直按 兵不动，以"静观其变"、并评估"特朗普关税"及其他政策调整对经济的影响。 时至9月份，美联储终于在两难局面（劳动力市场走弱、通胀仍处高位）下，宣布了今年的首次降息。 紧接着，在10月底再度降息25个基点。 秋季还迎来了有史以来持续时间最长的政府停摆，使得央行在缺乏官方 ...