Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of the current market environment, emphasizing the need for active management strategies in bond investment portfolios to capture pricing discrepancies and select investment targets for better returns [1][4]. Market Environment - The market has experienced continued volatility in the second quarter, exacerbated by new U.S. tariff policies, leading to increased uncertainty regarding inflation, economic growth, and interest rate trends [1][2]. - The fixed income assets are gaining investor attention due to their stable returns and risk diversification benefits, although the current narrowing of spreads indicates it is not a typical "buy the dip" scenario [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The economic outlook has become highly uncertain due to factors such as policy adjustments, fiscal measures, de-globalization trends, and energy transitions, which are impacting both short-term and long-term perspectives [2]. - The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank face challenges from economic cycle pressures and structural changes, with a slight increase in the probability of recession from 15% to 20% [3]. Investment Strategy - Selective allocation is crucial as credit spreads have widened but remain at historically low levels, necessitating careful selection of bonds [4]. - The high-yield bond market shows a divided performance, presenting both opportunities and risks, with a recommendation for investors to focus on short-duration high-yield bonds due to favorable conditions [4][5]. Asset Selection - High-quality securitized credit assets, such as AAA-rated CLOs and CMBS, are expected to continue providing attractive risk-adjusted returns, while low-rated bonds exhibit high volatility without corresponding excess return potential [5]. - In the investment-grade bond sector, strong capital positions in banks and utilities are favored, while the retail sector is viewed negatively due to pressures from AI and consumer shifts [6]. Tactical Management - Active management strategies are essential in the face of narrowing spreads, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainties, with a preference for a "barbell strategy" that combines high-quality income assets with opportunistic risk assets [6]. - Fixed income assets still hold advantages over cash and equities, particularly in scenarios of significant market corrections leading to interest rate declines [6].

Group 1 - The global fund flow report indicates that from March 27 to April 23, global equity funds saw a net inflow of $68.079 billion, with emerging market funds receiving $27.14 billion, 90% of which flowed into the Chinese market [1] - Chinese equity funds specifically gained a net inflow of $24.686 billion, significantly surpassing other emerging markets like South Korea, India, and Brazil [1] - Foreign capital is primarily focusing on strong-performing tech giants in Hong Kong, such as Tencent and Alibaba, with related ETFs experiencing substantial inflows, including the Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF, which saw a year-to-date share growth of over 300% [1] Group 2 - The low interest rate environment has led to a trend where over 30 small and medium-sized banks have reduced fixed deposit rates, with 3-year and 5-year rates dropping to 2.04% and 1.88% respectively, prompting a shift towards high-dividend assets [3] - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF has achieved nine consecutive weeks of net inflows, with a dividend yield of 7.99% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.19, making it a preferred choice for "quasi-fixed income" investments [3] Group 3 - The current market conditions have led to a growing interest in the "Tech + Dividend" barbell strategy, which combines growth from technology with the stability of dividend-paying stocks [5] - The combination of the Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF and the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF is expected to define investment outcomes in 2025, as foreign long-term bets align with domestic risk-averse demands [5] - The Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF includes major players in the internet, semiconductor, and smart vehicle sectors, with a significant portion of its weight in Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, allowing investors to benefit from AI and smart vehicle trends [5]

2025年的全球资本市场可能比以往任何一年都要精彩，仅仅不到四个月就堪称波澜壮阔——先是降息预 期反复摇摆，然后是外部关税规则反复变动接近失效，导致资金避险情绪升温。 一、细究：哑铃策略如何跑赢市场？ 不过在这场动荡中，港股市场却异军突起。截至4月15日，南向资金月内累计净流入超1600亿港元，此 前单日净流入更是屡屡创下新高。不到四个月，2025年港股吸金程度已经在近十年中排名第三。 细看资金流向，一个鲜明的策略浮出水面："哑铃策略"——同时重仓高弹性科技股与高股息红利股似乎 已经成为资金押注港股的标配。 2025年一季度，港股经历"过山车行情"。 1月：AI热潮推动科技股单月暴涨20%，红利股横盘； 2月：地缘冲突引发恐慌，科技股回调12%，红利股逆势涨3%； 数据显示，热门红利产品$港股红利低波ETF(SH520550)$已经实现连续20个交易日资金净流入，年内不 到四个月规模增长超200%，成为南向资金加仓的核心标的之一。当前该ETF成分股平均股息率7.5%， 中石油、中海油、四大行等权重股盈利稳定。且2025年恒指回调15%期间，标的指数仅下跌5%，最大 回撤不足科技股的一半。 3月：政策利好释放， ...

近期，港股科技板块经历短暂震荡调整，但南向资金却依然逆势加码，释放强烈看多信号。 1.科技主线韧性凸显： ——港股市场无疑正迎来"内外共振"的黄金窗口期。 总结来说，2025年开年以来港股市场呈现两大特征： 为什么这么说？ 首先是南向资金年内净流入超4270亿港元，创历史同期新高，其中单日最高净买入近300亿港元，释放出明确的"回调即机会"信号。 然后是外资机构密集发声：高盛称国际投资者对中资股兴趣达4年峰值，摩根士丹利上调盈利预期，中信建投直言"港股牛市将延续"。 尽管短期调整频繁，但以腾讯、小米、小鹏为代表的科技龙头业绩持续超预期。例如，腾讯2024Q4净利润同比激增30%，小米汽车业务毛利率突破20%，小 鹏MONA M03车型销量占比超50%。 这些数据验证了科技股的盈利修复逻辑，也为相关港股ETF提供了基本面支撑——如同时布局"中国十大科技股"的港股科技50ETF（159750），在年内高涨 约30%后近日接连在20日、30日均线处整固，后续向上突破的概率非常大。 2.红利资产配置需求激增： 在美联储降息预期、国内无风险收益率下行至1.7%的背景下，一只港股红利ETF显示出不断增强的"吸金"力度—— ...

昨天有一篇判断10年国债会上到2.5%的卖方分析，传播比较多，中午我们在《 鸡贼的观点 》里对线了一下，省流版观点就是—— 今年如果10年国债上到 2.5%，博主就把键盘吃了。 今天先聊债券，因为债市日内确实经历了，很炸裂的，从ICU到KTV的行情变化。 原因是好几个小作文 ，这里我就不贴了，一方面大部分真实性都存疑，另一方面上面 打击小作文的意图还是比较明显的， 今天几个聊小作文的文章，傍 晚都被删了......所以，咱们还是聊正儿八经的观点吧。 观点其实上周五都写了，没有变化，下图 ，理财经理小伙伴们可以考虑收藏一下，每当债市下跌的时候，你把这个图拿出来，看看这5条里，是否有根本 性的变化，如果没有的话，就继续让客户放宽心一点。 下午14点后，债市出现了非常大的反转行情，按日内高点算的话，10年国债下了8bps，30年国债下了6bps，这都属于巨幅的单日变化。 事实上，上面说的这些里，这两天的几个边际变化在于： 第一，财新的统计， 3月仅过去不到两周，累计686只拟发行 信用债 中，有76只取消发行 ， 相当于每11只拟发信用债中就有1只取消发行，同比和环比都 大幅攀升 。 这说明债市调整，已经波及到了企 ...

证券研究报告 固定收益报告 关注两会定调，哑铃策略或占优 可转债周报（3.3-3.7） 2025 年 03 月 03 日 中证转债-上证指数走势图 -30% -10% 10% 30% 24-02 24-04 24-06 24-08 24-10 24-12 25-02 上证指数 中证转债 刘文蓉 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530523070001 liuwenrong@hnchasing.com 相关报告 1 可转债周报（2.24-2.28）：科技内部轮动或加 快，转债关注交易节奏 2025-02-24 2 可转债周报（2.17-2.21）：转债估值相对高位， 关注结构性行情 2025-02-17 3 可转债周报（2.10-2.14）：转债估值有支撑， 关注科技主题方向 2025-02-11 投资要点 此报告仅供内部客户参考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 二级市场跟踪。1）转债跟随正股上涨。截至 2 月 28 日，上证指数 周环比下跌 1.72%，收于 3320.9 点；上证转债周环比下跌 0.68%，收 于 378.57 点；中证转债周环比下跌 0.89%，收于 429.87 点；深证转 债周环比下跌 1 ...

Financial Data and Key Indicator Changes - In 2023, the company's operating revenue was approximately 394 billion, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 16.02 billion, an increase of 10.75% year-on-year, marking the best performance since its listing in 2002 [4][14][6] - For the first half of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.15 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 28% [6] Business Line Data and Key Indicator Changes - The battery materials segment saw revenue drop from 286 billion in 2022 to 171.4 billion in 2023, while the tungsten-aluminum business increased from 126 billion to 155.7 billion [15][14] - The rare earth business revenue decreased from 59 billion to 51.7 billion, and the real estate segment reported a significant impairment loss of 3 billion [15][14] Market Data and Key Indicator Changes - The company holds the largest tungsten resources in A-shares, with a self-sufficiency rate of 36.6% for tungsten ore, which is higher than its competitors [20] - The market capitalization as of August 1, 2024, was 240 billion, with a static P/E ratio of 15, the lowest in the industry [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is pursuing a "dumbbell strategy," balancing low-risk defensive assets with high-risk growth assets, focusing on tungsten and new energy businesses [1] - A new round of fundraising was initiated to raise 35.3 billion for projects related to tungsten and photovoltaic materials, aligning with national industrial development directions [9][11] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the performance in 2023 was achieved despite a downturn in the new energy business, indicating resilience [6] - The company expects to enhance its market position in the photovoltaic tungsten wire sector, with production capacity projected to reach 2000 billion meters by 2026 [35] Other Important Information - The company is actively divesting from its real estate business, which has already yielded 1.45 billion in investment income in the first half of 2024 [44] - The integration of rare earth separation business with China Rare Earth Group has led to a significant decline in revenue and profit from this segment [43] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the current status of the Dahu Lake tungsten mine project? - The Dahu Lake project has been included in Jiangxi Province's key construction projects for 2024, and preliminary preparations have begun, including mining license updates and feasibility studies [26] Question: How is the company addressing the downturn in the new energy materials sector? - The company is focusing on developing next-generation new energy materials and has seen some improvement in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter [39]