投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-06-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 合成胶（BR） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着宏观因子逐渐消化，胶市交投逻辑开始 ...

Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil in China will see a slight increase, impacting consumer fuel costs, with the adjustment window set for June 3 at 24:00 [1] Price Adjustment Details - The current pricing cycle has shown a positive change rate of 1.53% as of June 2, leading to an increase of 65 yuan per ton for gasoline and 60 yuan per ton for diesel [1] - The retail prices for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel will rise by 0.05 yuan per liter, marking the fourth price increase this year [1] Consumer Impact - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92 or 95 gasoline will cost an additional 2.5 yuan [1] - A small private car running 2,000 kilometers a month with an 8L/100km fuel consumption will see an increase of approximately 4 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment on June 17 [1] - A heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers a month with a fuel consumption of 38L/100km will incur an additional fuel cost of about 89 yuan before the next adjustment [1] Market Conditions - The international crude oil prices have been fluctuating downwards due to factors such as easing US-China trade tensions, negotiations between the US and Iran, geopolitical issues in the Middle East, and OPEC+'s planned production increase in July [1] - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by an average of 411,000 barrels per day starting in July to suppress oil prices [1] - The overall geopolitical situation is currently manageable, with ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as between Russia and Ukraine, contributing to macroeconomic stability [1]

Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a short-term upward trend, reversing previous declines, influenced by dovish comments from the Federal Reserve [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicated that if uncertainties related to trade policies are resolved, the Fed could advance the rate cut process, supported by recent economic indicators [1] - The April core PCE price index annual rate decreased from 2.7% to 2.5%, and the one-year inflation expectation fell from 7.3% to 6.6%, suggesting a potential for rate cuts if May's non-farm data meets expectations [1] - Analyst Pengcheng from Bailihau believes the Fed will likely remain steady in June, as the impact of tariff policies on the economy has not fully manifested [1] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a bullish reversal, with potential support at $3365 [1] Oil Market - Oil prices showed a mixed trend, initially rising before declining, with signs of improvement in short-term patterns [3] - The EU is drafting the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, focusing on energy revenues, which could support oil prices [3] - The new sanctions will target "Nord Stream" infrastructure, Russian banking, and further reductions in the oil price cap [3] - OPEC+'s production increase policy may weigh on oil prices, with expectations of an increase of approximately 410,000 barrels per day in August [3] - Short-term demand from increased travel in the Northern Hemisphere may support oil prices, but long-term fundamentals remain challenging [3] Copper Market - Copper prices closed higher, approaching previous highs and forming a continuation pattern [5] - The hourly chart indicates that the upward structure is not yet complete, with support at $4.75 [5] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index closed above long-term moving averages, indicating a potential continuation pattern [6] - The hourly chart shows a completed downward structure, with support at 37,300 [6]

摩根士丹利表示，预计OPEC+在8月、9月、10月这三个月继续恢复石油产量，从而令油价进一步走 低。OPEC+周六宣布同意连续第三个月大幅增加石油产量，对此摩根士丹利表示，这意味着到10月， 此前削减的220万桶/日的产量将被全数解除。 ...

高盛：现预计欧佩克+将在8月份最终实现41万桶/日的增产（与7月份持平）。 ...

高盛预计欧佩克+将在8月份最终实现41万桶/日的增产，与7月份持平。(智通财经) ...

石油输出国组织5月31日发表声明，八个OPEC+国家（沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威 特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼）5月31日举行线上会议，决定在7月份增产41.1万桶/日。这是上 述八个产油国连续第三个月实施同等力度的增产，打破了该组织多年来靠协同减产支撑油价的市场策 略，也将国际油价拖至四年来的低位。声明称，产油国根据不断变化的市场情况，逐步增加的产量可能 会暂停或逆转。（智通财经） ...

欧佩克+声明：八个成员国（沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿 曼）将在七月份增产41.1万桶/日。根据不断变化的市场情况，逐步增加的产量可能会暂停或逆转。他 们还确认，将全额补偿自2024年1月以来的任何过剩产量。 ...

市场消息：欧佩克+增产41.1万桶/日是与会代表讨论的主要情景。 ...

Group 1 - The core focus is on the "Three Summer" production campaign, emphasizing the importance of timely harvesting, sowing, and management for ensuring grain production and farmers' income [2][3][4] - As of May 30, over 60% of the wheat harvest has been completed in the province, with 5,162.1 million acres harvested, indicating a strong progress in the campaign [4] - The government is actively coordinating efforts to ensure that all mature wheat is harvested before the expected rainfall from May 30 to June 1, which could impact the harvest [4][7] Group 2 - Various local entities are mobilizing resources to dry high-moisture wheat to prevent spoilage, with 832 regional agricultural service centers and 2,561 drying points operational [5] - The average price for standard grade three wheat is reported at 1.20 yuan per jin, with 43.1 million tons of new wheat purchased by the market as of May 28, ensuring farmers receive timely payments [6] - The province is promoting the integration of high-yield practices across 2 million acres of corn and 800,000 acres of soybeans to enhance productivity for the autumn harvest [8]