台湾地区货币政策主管机构：我们对外汇市场的干预程度比平时要小。 ...

"台湾央行"总裁将于下午4:30分举行记者会，说明汇市事宜。 ...

香港恒生指数 78% 22% 标普500指数 37% 63% 纳斯达克指数 79% 21% 道琼斯指数 64% 36% 日经225指数 50% 50% 德国DAX40指 22% 78% 数 外汇 r 多头 空头 欧元/美元 60% 40% 欧元/英镑 67% 33% 欧元/日元 15% 85% 欧元/澳元 54% 46% 英镑/美元 24% 76% 英镑/日元 43% 57% 美元/日元 56% 44% 美元/加元 32% 68% 美元/瑞郎 96% 4% 澳元/美元 55% 45% 澳元/日元 42% 58% 加元/日元 38% 62% 纽元/美元 50% 50% 纽元/日元 63% 37% 美元/离岸人 13% 87% 民币 免责声明:本图表数据来源于公众号:嘉盛集团,数据仅供参考,不作为任何投资建议。 欧佩克+再次增产重挫油价，未来大方向似乎除了走低再无其他可能。周一美元全线走低，亚币大涨，美元/离岸人民币逼近卖 出信号，后市情绪如何？欢迎前往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅（数据每10分钟更新1次） ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) against the US Dollar is driven by optimistic expectations in trade negotiations, increased dollar selling by Taiwanese exporters, and intensified foreign exchange hedging operations by life insurance companies [1] Group 1 - Taiwanese exporters are actively selling US Dollars, contributing to the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar [1] - Life insurance companies are increasing their foreign exchange hedging activities, further supporting the TWD's strength [1] - The intervention by the Central Bank of Taiwan in the foreign exchange market has decreased, which may also be a factor in the TWD's rise [1]

Core Points - The USD/CAD exchange rate weakened, currently at 1.3792, down from 1.3817 last Friday [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 100, currently reported at 99.97 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB exchange rate experienced a significant increase during the "May Day" holiday, with the USD/CNH rate dropping from 7.27 to around 7.21, indicating a daily increase of over 600 basis points [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - Reports of major U.S. retailers like Walmart resuming shipments from Chinese suppliers have improved expectations for China's foreign trade environment, leading to increased confidence among overseas investment funds regarding the RMB's valuation [1][3]. - The "buying on expectations" behavior in the forex market is gaining traction, as Wall Street institutions anticipate multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, prompting them to hedge against USD depreciation by buying RMB and other non-USD currencies [1][7]. - The lower trading activity in the offshore RMB market during the holiday period allowed for significant short-covering by overseas institutions, which amplified the RMB's appreciation [1][4]. Group 2: Changes in Market Sentiment - Overseas hedge funds have reduced their short positions in offshore RMB, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards a more optimistic outlook on China's foreign trade environment [3][4]. - The reduction in short positions is evident as many hedge funds no longer engage in borrowing RMB for short-selling, and the number of funds willing to buy RMB derivatives at higher execution prices has decreased significantly [4]. - The overall sentiment indicates that most overseas investment institutions do not foresee the RMB falling below the 7.4 level in the short term, with many funds having cut their short positions by at least half since mid-April [4][5]. Group 3: Anticipated Market Movements - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.2 and 7.3 in the near term, influenced by the correlation with the USD index, which has been hovering between 98 and 101 [2]. - As optimism grows regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations, the trend of short-covering in offshore RMB is likely to continue, potentially allowing the RMB to recover the 7.2 level [5]. - Market participants are preparing for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, with expectations of 3 to 4 cuts this year, leading to increased buying of non-USD currencies as a risk management strategy [7][8].

欧元兑日元涨1.35%，报164.19日元；英镑兑日元涨1.29%，报193.132日元。 周四（5月1日）纽约尾盘，美元兑日元上涨1.65%，报145.42日元，日内至日本央行在北京时间11:00后 不久宣布利率决议声明那段时间，持续横盘震荡于143日元一线，随后持续震荡上行，02:27刷新日高至 145.73日元。 日本财务大臣加藤胜信称，没有和美国讨论控制外汇走势的目标、框架，与美国讨论了是否需要就外汇 问题进行建设性讨论。 ...

日本央行：需密切关注外汇及其他市场变动对日本经济和物价的影响。 ...

2025年4月30日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.2014，下调（人民币升值）15点； 欧元/人民币报8.2250，下调120点； 港元/人民币报0.92813，下调4点； 英镑/人民币报9.6867，下调149点； 澳元/人民币报4.6177，下调290点； 加元/人民币报5.2298，上调1点； 100日元/人民币报5.0872，下调25点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.2833，下调679点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.2996，下调229点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59837，下调33.1点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7640，下调231点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5219，上调40点。 ...

Group 1 - The demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen has increased due to investor concerns about the global economic outlook, prompting a reassessment of major currency trends [1][2] - Between April 15 and 22, speculative net short positions in the US dollar significantly increased among G10 currencies, influenced by uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and tariff issues, leading to a 1.72% decline in the dollar index during this period [1] - The euro appreciated by 1.21% against the dollar during the same period, although speculative positions decreased by 4.3 thousand contracts, indicating a reduction in market confidence for further euro appreciation in the short term [1] Group 2 - The Japanese yen experienced a 1.08% decline against the dollar, but speculative positions increased by 6 thousand contracts, reaching a historical high of 188.1 thousand contracts, reflecting its status as a safe-haven asset amid escalating global trade tensions [1] - The British pound rose by 0.75% against the dollar, with speculative positions increasing by 14 thousand contracts, suggesting a cautiously optimistic market outlook for the pound's future performance [1] - The Canadian dollar fell by 1.04% against the dollar, while speculative positions increased by 17 thousand contracts, indicating a market expectation of a short-term rebound in the dollar [2]