2 汽车周观点： 6月第4周乘用车环比+3.9%，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月7日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 证券研究报告 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.6.16-2025.6.22 （ ➢本周复盘总结：六月第四周交强险56.9万辆，环比上周/上月周度+3.9%/+24.2%。 ➢本周细分板块涨跌幅排序:SW摩托车及其他(+5.1%) >SW商用载客车(+4.4%) >SW乘 用车(+0.4%) >SW汽车（+0.1%）> SＷ商用载货车(0.1%) > SW汽车零部件(-0.7%) 。 本周已覆盖标的春风动力、爱玛科技、宇通客车、上汽集团、中国重汽涨幅前五。 ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发小鹏G7上市点评。 ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）小鹏G7定位为极致空间而生的家庭科技美学中大型SUV，602 km Max版搭载双Orin-X芯片定价19.58万元，702km Max版搭载双Orin-X芯片定价2 0.58万元，Ultra版搭载三颗图灵AI芯片定价22.58万元， ...

Core Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to approach 60% this year, with intelligent experience becoming a crucial factor for consumers when purchasing cars [1] - The automotive industry is transitioning from the electrification phase to the intelligent phase, with the government emphasizing the development of smart connected new energy vehicles [1] - The Qualcomm Automotive Technology and Cooperation Summit showcased the latest intelligent vehicles, highlighting the industry's focus on smart vehicle development [2] Industry Trends - The summit featured over 40 demonstration vehicles and more than 60 partners, indicating a strong momentum in the intelligent automotive sector [2] - Qualcomm's Chairman in China noted that smart connectivity has significantly accelerated the commercialization of new energy vehicles, particularly benefiting Chinese automakers [2] - The adoption rate of Level 2 and above advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) is projected to reach 65% this year, with expectations to exceed 90% by 2030 [2][3] Technological Developments - The automotive industry is increasingly exhibiting semiconductor characteristics, with the importance of chips growing in intelligent cockpits, smart driving, and vehicle domain control systems [5] - The collaboration between automakers and chip manufacturers is crucial for enhancing product development speed and functionality [5][6] - The integration of smart cockpit technologies is a significant challenge, as automakers aim to create a cohesive user experience with multiple screens [4] Market Dynamics - The development of smart connected vehicles is becoming a key strategy for local governments to foster new productive forces [9] - Suzhou's Xiangcheng District is emerging as a hub for new energy-related enterprises, focusing on automotive electronics and chips [9] - The rapid technological innovation and product iteration in China's automotive sector are reminiscent of the early mobile phone industry, suggesting potential for significant global market success [9]

Core Insights - The automotive recall landscape is shifting from mechanical failures to software and electronic system issues, reflecting the industry's transformation into mobile intelligent terminals [2][6][8] - In the first half of 2025, a total of 60 recall announcements affected 28 brands, impacting 5.281 million vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.5%, the second-highest in nearly a decade [2][3] - Over 40% of the recalls are attributed to vehicle system vulnerabilities, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounting for 30% of the recalls, highlighting the digital challenges faced by the industry [2][3] Recall Trends - Honda's joint ventures in China executed the largest single recall in industry history, affecting 1.367 million vehicles due to steering system defects, representing 25% of the total recalls in the first half of the year [3] - Tesla recalled 1.2068 million Model 3/Y vehicles due to electronic system defects, nearing its global delivery total for 2024 [3] - Korean brands saw a staggering 113-fold increase in recall volume, while European brands experienced a 45-fold increase, primarily due to supply chain management issues during their electrification transitions [3] Quality Management Improvements - Domestic brands have reduced recall volumes by 85.1% through enhanced quality management systems, reflecting advancements in research, development, and production control [4][5] - The frequency of recalls in the core battery management system and electric drive components has significantly decreased, indicating improved safety measures and technological maturity in the NEV sector [6][8] Regulatory Changes - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's 2025 inspections will include mandatory testing for battery performance and collision safety, pushing companies to establish comprehensive testing systems [7] - Luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz and BMW accounted for 55% of the total recall announcements, indicating ongoing challenges in quality control within the high-end market [7] Future Outlook - The automotive industry is transitioning to a new era of quality management, focusing on a "prevention-response-optimization" closed-loop system that encompasses the entire product lifecycle [8] - Companies that adapt to this new quality standard, prioritizing user experience and comprehensive lifecycle management, will gain a competitive edge in the intelligent mobility landscape [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the automotive chip industry, particularly in China, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.3% from 2025 to 2030 [10][24]. Core Insights - The automotive chip market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the increasing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) and the rising demand for smart automotive technologies. The market share of automotive chips in the global semiconductor market is expected to rise from 7% in 2021 to 13% in 2024 [10][24]. - The competition landscape in the Chinese automotive chip industry is shifting from dominance by international giants to a more diversified ecosystem with increasing participation from domestic companies [11][30]. - The report highlights the critical role of automotive chips in enabling vehicle intelligence, connectivity, and electrification, with various chip types serving distinct functions within automotive systems [14][28]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The global automotive chip market is projected to grow significantly, with the Chinese market expected to outpace global growth rates due to the rapid development of EVs and smart driving technologies [10][22][24]. - By 2024, the global automotive chip market is estimated to reach approximately $806 billion, with China's market expected to reach around $367 billion [23]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive dynamics are evolving, with local companies gaining market share and international firms adapting to the changing landscape. The report notes that domestic firms are expected to enhance their market positions over the next 3-5 years [11][30]. - Key players include both international giants and emerging local firms, with a focus on differentiation through technology and localized services [30]. Industry Chain - The automotive chip industry chain consists of upstream semiconductor materials and equipment, midstream chip design and manufacturing, and downstream vehicle system integration and manufacturing [12][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable supply chain and the need for advancements in manufacturing processes to support the growing demand for automotive chips [12][28]. Technology and Product Segmentation - Automotive chips are categorized into various types, including control, computing, power, sensing, storage, analog, communication, and driving chips, each serving specific functions in vehicle systems [9][14]. - The report highlights the technological challenges and opportunities in developing high-performance chips for advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS) and electric vehicles [10][27].

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully expanded its external customer base since 2020, leading to steady growth in performance, supported by a rebound in sales from SAIC Group, indicating a positive outlook for continued performance improvement [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Growth - From 2020 to 2024, the company's revenue is projected to increase from 133.58 billion to 168.85 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 5.4 billion to 6.69 billion, primarily due to successful external customer expansion [2]. - The revenue from external customers is expected to account for 62.2% of total revenue by 2024, up 17.5 percentage points from 2016 [2]. Customer Base and Partnerships - The company has established strong long-term partnerships with major domestic automakers, including Tesla Shanghai, BYD, Geely, Chery, and others, enhancing its customer resource coverage and structure [2]. SAIC Group's Recovery - SAIC Group, a key customer, faced sales pressure since 2020 but has begun to recover, with Q1 2025 sales reaching 945,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, marking a significant turnaround [3]. - The net profit for SAIC Group in Q1 2025 reached 3.02 billion, up 11.4% year-on-year, indicating potential for further sales and profit recovery that could benefit the company [3]. Dividend and Profit Retention - The company has maintained a strong dividend level, with an average annual dividend of 2.54 billion from 2020 to 2024 and a dividend payout ratio of 38.8% [3]. - The retained earnings have increased from 15.21 billion in 2015 to 40.07 billion in 2024, providing a solid foundation for strategic business development and further dividend expansion [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 176.5 billion, 186.2 billion, and 195.3 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.5%, 5.5%, and 4.9% respectively [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 6.9 billion, 7.4 billion, and 8.0 billion, with growth rates of 3.4%, 6.6%, and 8.4% respectively, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively transforming into a leading player in the intelligent driving sector, leveraging its data and technology advantages while adapting to market trends through precise product alignment [1][2]. Group 1: Company Developments - The company’s subsidiary, Siwei Zhili, has submitted an application for an H-share IPO, marking a significant step in its growth strategy [1]. - Siwei Zhili is primarily focused on smart cockpit software solutions and has a strong shareholder base, including major players like Didi and Tencent, which enhances its market position [1][4]. - As of June 20, 2025, Siwei Zhili has delivered over 15.9 million smart cockpit software solutions and over 1.55 million integrated hardware and software solutions [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Financials - Siwei Zhili ranks tenth among domestic primary smart cockpit solution providers, holding a market share of 0.1%, and ranks third globally among software-driven Chinese suppliers [3]. - Despite reporting losses of 203 million RMB, 265 million RMB, and 377 million RMB for the years ending December 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, the company has shown stable revenue performance with total revenues of approximately 538.8 million RMB, 477.2 million RMB, and 478.8 million RMB for the same years [4]. - The company has a strong customer base, with revenue from its top five clients accounting for 85.9%, 96.2%, and 92.2% of total revenue over the past three years [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The global smart cockpit market is projected to reach 774.6 billion RMB by 2029, with the Chinese market expected to exceed 300 billion RMB, indicating significant growth potential [2]. - The company is focusing on building a comprehensive ecosystem for intelligent driving, including partnerships with major cloud service providers like Alibaba Cloud and Huawei Cloud to enhance its technological capabilities [9]. - The management team is committed to staying updated on industry trends and competitor movements to maintain a competitive edge in the rapidly evolving automotive market [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [5] Core Insights - The launch of Xiaomi YU7 has seen overwhelming demand, with over 200,000 orders in just 3 minutes and 289,000 in 1 hour, indicating strong product capability, pricing strategy, brand influence, and ecosystem synergy [1][13] - The Xiaomi YU7 comes in three configurations, priced at 253,500 CNY, 279,900 CNY, and 329,900 CNY, with impressive range and performance metrics [1][13] - The vehicle features advanced technology, including an 800V silicon carbide high-voltage platform and a comprehensive suite of high-level driving assistance hardware [2][14] Summary by Sections 1. Product Launch and Performance - Xiaomi YU7's performance includes a maximum power of 288 kW, peak torque of 528 N·m, and a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 3.23 seconds [1][13] - The vehicle's configurations offer ranges of 835 km, 770 km, and 760 km, showcasing its competitive edge in the electric vehicle market [1][13] 2. Investment Strategy and Focus Areas - The report highlights opportunities in the supply chain, particularly for core technology suppliers like CATL and Huichuan Technology, which are expected to benefit from increased orders as Xiaomi's sales grow [3][15] - It also emphasizes the potential for smart driving and cockpit system suppliers, such as Desay SV and Huayang Group, to gain from the rising demand for automotive intelligence [3][15] - Companies specializing in integrated die-casting and lightweight components, like Top Group, are noted for their technological leadership and existing partnerships with Xiaomi [3][15] 3. Market Review - The automotive sector experienced a weekly increase of 2.88%, ranking 19th among 31 sectors, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 [4][16] - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various automotive sub-sectors, including automotive services and components, indicating a positive trend in the market [4][16]

2025年，中国新能源汽车渗透率预计将达60%，同时智能化体验成为消费者购车的重要考虑 因素。汽车行业正从电动化上半场，进入智能化下半场。 汽车产业被视为工业经济稳增长的"压舱石"。今年《政府工作报告》提出"大力发展智能网联 新能源汽车"。电动化、智能化、网联化、共享化四个关键词，擘画出汽车行业的未来"蓝 图"。其中，智能化堪称"C位"担当。于6月26日-27日举行的2025高通汽车技术与合作峰会 现场，吸引一大批行业领先企业参会，展示数十台最新款智能汽车，成为观察新能源汽车智 能化发展潮流的一扇窗口。 汽车智能化发展势头强劲 40多台演示车辆、60多个合作伙伴、50多场专题演讲……本届高通汽车技术与合作峰会 以"我们一起，行稳智远"为主题，参与厂商数量、现场体验等方面都有新的突破，与会嘉宾 深入探讨智能汽车产业的未来发展趋势和合作机遇。 高通公司中国区董事长孟樸认为，因为有了智能网联，大大加速了新能源汽车商业化进程。 高通在智能网联汽车方面，无论是利用5G实现车辆的连接，还是在智能座舱、驾驶辅助等领 域，都能够为汽车厂商，特别是中国的车企进入市场并快速迭代产品，起到非常重要的推动 作用。 提及汽车智能化，大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of Xiaopeng Motors' AR-HUD "Chasing Light Panorama" in collaboration with Huawei marks a significant advancement in the automotive industry, integrating AI-assisted driving with augmented reality technology, indicating a potential growth surge in the AR-HUD market [2][3]. Group 1: AR-HUD Technology Development - The AR-HUD technology is evolving, addressing user demands for safety and real-time information access, as traditional displays require drivers to look away from the road [2][3]. - Current AR-HUD products face challenges such as visibility issues and user experience shortcomings, primarily due to a lack of innovation in hardware and software integration [2][3]. - Xiaopeng and Huawei's partnership aims to enhance user experience by leveraging Huawei's substantial R&D investment exceeding 10 billion yuan and Xiaopeng's AI driving algorithms [3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Growth - In 2024, the delivery of passenger cars equipped with W/AR-HUD in China reached 3.5243 million units, a year-on-year increase of 56.32%, with an installation rate of 15.38% [7]. - The market for AR-HUD is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate exceeding 50% over the next three years [7]. - The adoption of AR-HUD is accelerating in mainstream consumer markets, with a notable presence in vehicles priced between 100,000 to 200,000 yuan, where the adoption rate is approximately 38% [7]. Group 3: User Experience and Feedback - User experiences with AR-HUD vary, with some expressing concerns over visibility and clarity, while others appreciate the technology's potential to enhance driving safety and convenience [8][9]. - Despite mixed reviews, the presence of AR-HUD in vehicles is becoming a selling point, particularly in high-end models, contributing to overall product competitiveness [8][9]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The AR-HUD market is becoming increasingly competitive, with numerous companies entering the field, leading to price wars that may impact profit margins [14]. - The technology landscape is evolving, with various companies exploring next-generation products like P-HUD and naked-eye 3D AR-HUD, intensifying competition among manufacturers [14][15]. - The supply chain for AR-HUD components is maturing, with domestic suppliers enhancing production capabilities, which is expected to lower costs and facilitate wider adoption [12].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of Xiaomi's YU7 has sparked a complex emotional response in the overseas market, blending admiration, envy, anxiety, and a sense of loss regarding the changing landscape of the global automotive industry [3][26]. Design and Controversy - The design of YU7 has been a contentious topic, with many critics accusing it of resembling the Ferrari Purosangue, particularly in its body posture and crossover style [4][6]. - Despite the criticisms, a growing number of overseas users and media have adopted a more pragmatic view, acknowledging the design similarities but expressing indifference towards them [7][10]. Product Value and Features - The YU7 offers exceptional value that exceeds its starting price of $35,000, which has led to a high tolerance for design criticisms among overseas users [12]. - The vehicle boasts luxury features comparable to traditional luxury brands, including Nappa leather, zero-gravity seats, and advanced technology like the Xiaomi Sky Screen [13]. - Performance metrics are impressive, with the Max version achieving 0-100 km/h in 3.23 seconds, and its 800V platform alleviating concerns about charging for large electric SUVs [15][17]. Market Reception and Consumer Sentiment - The YU7 has generated significant interest among global consumers, with many expressing a desire to purchase the vehicle despite the design debates [18][26]. - Comparisons with Tesla vehicles reveal that many users find the YU7 superior in terms of luxury and technology at a similar price point [20][22]. - The emotional response to the YU7 reflects a deeper introspection about the state of the domestic automotive industry in the U.S., highlighting feelings of envy and anxiety regarding the capabilities of Chinese manufacturers [24][26].