Group 1 - The median consumer inflation expectation in South Korea for May has dropped to its lowest level since January 2022 [1] - The consumer confidence index in South Korea for May recorded a value of 101.8, marking the highest level since October 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar index are primarily driven by the reassessment of US fiscal and credit risks, following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating and the anticipated increase in federal debt due to large-scale tax cuts and expansionary fiscal policies [1] Group 1: US Economic Indicators - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.1% due to rising fiscal risks [1] - In April, the foreign exchange settlement deficit slightly widened, with increased corporate foreign exchange transactions indicating heightened trading activity [1] - The US PMI preliminary reading for May exceeded expectations, although Moody's downgrade has weakened confidence in the dollar [1] Group 2: China Economic Indicators - China's cross-border capital inflow remains strong, with a stable goods trade surplus [1] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - The volume of foreign capital in Chinese bond custody has rebounded, indicating improved foreign investment sentiment [1] Group 3: European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI for April was reported at 2.2% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [1] - The preliminary composite PMI for May was recorded at 49.5, with the services PMI at 48.9, indicating a contraction in the services sector [1] - The European Commission has revised down its growth forecasts for the next two years [1] Group 4: Japanese Economic Indicators - Japan's manufacturing sector remains in contraction, with the May PMI data showing a slight recovery but still below the neutral line [1] - The services and composite PMIs in Japan have declined [1] - Japan's April exports grew by 2% year-on-year, while the CPI for April was reported at 3.6% year-on-year [1] Group 5: Currency Outlook - The US dollar is expected to maintain a weak position in the short term, with potential short-selling opportunities following a period of range-bound trading [1] - The Japanese yen shows short-term momentum [1] - The decline in US credit is unexpectedly strengthening the euro, with attention on the progress of US-EU tariff negotiations [1]

何时降息？ 仅从美联储官员的讲话来看，他们对美联储短期下调利率的态度并不乐观。 一场会议 多位官员表态 5月20日，亚特兰大联储2025年金融市场会议（FMC）在佛罗里达州费南迪纳比奇举行。出席会议的有 多位美联储官员以及研究机构和学术界的专家学者，其中包括美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊 （Philip N. Jefferson）、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克（Raphael W. Bostic）、克利夫兰联储主席贝斯·哈马克（Beth M. Hammack）和旧金山联储主席戴利（Mary C. Daly）。 哈马克表示，她正在根据各种情景评估经济前景，包括关税是否会刺激通胀一次性或更持久地上升。她 强调，未来几个月官员们仍将掌握"大量"信息。"现在我认为我们能采取的最佳行动就是坐下来仔细研 究数据，与我们的社区互动，听听他们的想法，听听他们所做的选择，看看所有这些是如何在整体数据 中结合在一起的。"哈马克说。 戴利的发言和哈马克相似，她认为美联储应该保持"中心地位，并准备灵活行动——但不要在不需要的 时候突然或仓促行动，因为那时我们掌握的信息还不足以支撑决策"。 而博斯蒂克的态度似乎最能解释美联储为何按兵不动："我 ...

欧元区5月消费者信心指数初值-15.2，预期-16，前值-16.7。 ...

智通财经5月20日电，欧元区5月消费者信心指数初值为负15.2，前月为负16.7。 ...

欧元区5月消费者信心指数初值将于十分钟后公布。 ...

土耳其统计局：土耳其5月消费者信心指数为84.8点，4月为83.9点。 ...

2025/5/19 10:08 【国富期货早间看点】GAPKI敦促推迟上调⽑棕榈油出⼝专项税 66% 20250519 【国富期货早间看点】GAPKI敦促推迟上调毛棕榈油出口专项税 阿 根廷大豆收割率达66%领先于去年同期 20250519 2025年05月19日 07:20 | | | | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3825.00 | -0.96 | 1 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 65. 33 | 1.10 | 0.57 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 61.93 | 1.14 | 0. 58 | | 美豆07(CBOT) | 1051.00 | -0. 21 | -0. 02 | | 美豆粕07(CBOT) | 291. 80 | -1.52 | -0. 17 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 48.92 | -0. 81 | -0. 39 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 100. 96 | 0. ...

Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Economic Impact - The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index has declined for the fifth consecutive month, with an initial value of 50.8, marking the second lowest in history [1][9] - Consumer perceptions of their current financial situation have reached the lowest level since 2009 [9] Group 2: Price Increases by Retailers - Walmart's CEO Doug McMillon stated that due to the current scale of tariffs and thin profit margins, the company cannot absorb all cost increases, making price hikes unavoidable [1][3] - Price increases are not limited to non-essential goods; essential items like bananas have seen price rises from $0.50 to $0.54 per pound [3] - A survey by cross-border e-commerce platform Joor found that 85% of fashion brands plan to raise prices due to tariff costs, with 96% of U.S. retailers and 82% of non-U.S. retailers also planning price hikes [3] Group 3: Specific Company Actions - Companies like Stanley Black & Decker and various fashion brands have already implemented price increases, with Stanley announcing price hikes for tools and outdoor products [3][5] - Ford Motor Company plans to raise prices on three models produced in Mexico by up to $2,000, effective at the end of June [5][6] - Luxury brands such as Hermès and Ferrari have also announced price increases in response to rising tariffs [6] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The U.S. retail sales growth slowed in April, with a month-over-month increase of only 0.1%, significantly down from a revised 1.7% in March [9] - The ongoing tariff policies have led to public confrontations between President Trump and major retailers, including Walmart and Amazon, regarding price increases and tariff impacts [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The latest consumer confidence index in the U.S. has dropped to 50.8, marking the lowest level since June 2022 and indicating a growing pessimism about the economy and personal financial situations among consumers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The consumer confidence index has decreased for five consecutive months, reflecting a significant decline in consumer sentiment [1][4]. - The index has fallen approximately 30% since January 2025, attributed to the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies [4][11]. - The current economic conditions index stands at 57.6, down 3.7% month-over-month and 17.2% year-over-year, while the expectations index is at 46.5, down 1.7% month-over-month and 32.4% year-over-year [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is facing rising inflation and unemployment, with Federal Reserve officials warning of potential economic stagnation [6][12]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a GDP contraction of 0.3%, marking the first negative growth in three years, which, combined with low consumer confidence, suggests a challenging economic environment [16]. - Retail giants like Walmart are planning to raise prices due to increased costs from tariffs, indicating that consumers may soon experience higher prices [15]. Group 3: Implications of Economic Trends - The combination of high unemployment, rising inflation, and slowing economic growth aligns with the definition of stagflation, a scenario that the U.S. may be approaching [14]. - The Federal Reserve's warnings about inflation volatility and the potential for prolonged supply shocks present significant challenges for the economy and monetary policy [10][12]. - Consumers are advised to increase savings and manage high-interest debt in anticipation of potential economic difficulties, which could further diminish consumer spending and accelerate the decline of the "consumer myth" [18][19].