据美国世界大型企业联合会26日发布的数据，截至20日，8月美国消费者信心指数下降1.3点至97.4。其 中，消费者对当前商业和就业市场条件的评估指数下降1.6点至131.2。反映短期收入前景、商业和就业 市场环境的消费者预期指数下降1.2点至74.8，继续低于通常显示将出现经济衰退的临界点80。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Economic Indicators - Durable Goods Orders for July decreased by -2.8%, an improvement from the consensus estimate of -4.0% and the previous month's -9.4%, which was the lowest since April 2020 [2] - Excluding Transportation orders, Durable Goods Orders increased by +1.1%, the highest since September of the previous year [3] - Shipments of Durable Goods showed a +0.7% increase, marking the strongest performance of 2025 so far [3] Housing Market - Case-Shiller Home Prices for June rose by +2.1%, which is 20 basis points below expectations and down from +2.8% in May, representing the lowest level since July 2023 [4] - Year-over-year Housing Wealth increased by +1.9%, which is below the inflation rate of +2.7% in June [4] - New York City saw a +7.0% increase in housing value over the past year, while Tampa, San Francisco, and Dallas experienced declines of -2.4%, -2.0%, and -1.0% respectively [5] Company News - Eli Lilly reported a -10.5% average reduction in body weight from its phase-3 testing of a new weight loss pill, with shares up +2.5% following the announcement [6] - The Bank of Montreal (BMO) exceeded earnings expectations by +9.9%, reporting $2.33 per share compared to the consensus of $2.12, while The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) reported a +7% earnings beat at $1.37 per share versus the expected $1.28 [7]

【风险提示】根据外汇管理相关规定，买卖外汇应在银行等国家规定的交易场所进行。私自买卖外汇、 变相买卖外汇、倒买倒卖外汇或者非法介绍买卖外汇数额较大的，由外汇管理机关依法予以行政处罚； 构成犯罪的，依法追究刑事责任。 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 每经AI快讯，8月26日，法国8月消费者信心指数降至87，预期为89。 每日经济新闻 ...

报告导读： 本周鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上表态超预期转鸽，美国资产价格演绎降息 交易，美元走弱， 10 年期美债利率回落，美股反弹。我们认为 9 月美联储可能开启降 息，但是预防式基调和通胀影响下，速度不会太快，预计年内最多降息 2 次。欧央行方 面，通胀已不再是关注焦点， 9 月或按兵不动。 全球大类资产表现： 本周（ 2025.8.18-2025.8.22 ）， 全球大类资产价格中，主要经济体股市多数上涨。 其中，上证综指上涨 3.5% ，恒生指数上涨 0.3% ，标普 500 上涨 0.3% ，日经 225 指数下跌 1.7% ，发达市场股票指数上涨 0.4% ，优于新兴市场涨幅（ 0% ）。 大宗商品价格涨跌互现， 其中， IPE 布油期货上涨 2.5% ，标普 - 高盛商品指数上涨 2.1% ，伦敦金现上涨 1.1% ，南华商品指数下跌 0.4% 。 债市方 面， 10 年期美债收益率较前一周回落 7BP 至 4.26% 。美元指数较前一周下降 0.12% ，报收 97.72 ，日元升值 0.15% ，美元兑日元收 146.94 。 美国经济： 制造业景气度有所回升。 8 月美国 Markit 制 ...

黄金上周逆袭，U型反转调整后，再次上演绝地反击，整体逆袭70美金，多头强势归来，下个目标想着3400挺进。 我们7月和8月，整体策略持续稳健获利。 | | | | | 【8位数黄金团队】1标准手跟单情况 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 間期 | 时间 | 品种 | 方向 | 进场 | 止损 | 止盈 | 平台 | 净收获 | 净盈亏 | | | 6月19日 金 | | ਡੇ | 3348 | 3343 | 3378 | 3378 | 30 | 3000 | | 6月 | 6月26日 金 | | 2 | 3347 | 3353 | 3318 | 3321 | 25 | 2500 | | | 6月27日 金 | | ਵੇ | 3271 | 3266 | 3290 | 3279 | 6 | 600 | | | 6月30日 金 | | 22 | 3297 | 3300 | 3275 | 3276 | 20 | 2000 | | | 7月3日 金 | | 후 | 3339 | 3345 | 3300 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing and consumer confidence, which may present investment opportunities in these regions [2][3][9]. Group 1: US Economic Data - The US August S&P PMI exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI initial value at 53.3, compared to the forecast of 49.7 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July leading index from the Conference Board met expectations, showing a month-on-month change of -0.1%, in line with forecasts [2][9]. - July housing data surpassed expectations, with new housing starts at an annualized rate of 1.428 million units, above the forecast of 1.297 million units, and revised previous value from 1.321 million to 1.358 million units [2][9]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI also exceeded expectations, with an initial value of 50.5, compared to the forecast of 49.5 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July CPI final value met expectations, with a year-on-year change of 2%, matching forecasts, while core CPI was also in line at 2.3% [2][9]. - The August consumer confidence index was below expectations, with an initial value of -15.5 against a forecast of -14.7 [2][9]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - Japan's August manufacturing PMI rebounded to an initial value of 49.9, up from the previous value of 48.9, while the services PMI slightly declined to 52.7 from 53.6 [3][10]. - June core machinery orders exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 3%, against a forecast of -0.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, compared to the expected 4.7% [3][10]. - July CPI was in line with expectations, showing a year-on-year change of 3.1% [3][10]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes July new home sales on August 25, July durable goods orders initial value on August 26, and August consumer confidence index on August 26 [4][11]. - In the Eurozone, July M3 year-on-year data will be released on August 28, along with the final value of the August consumer confidence index [5][12]. - Japan will report July unemployment rate and job-to-applicant ratio, July retail sales, and July industrial output initial value on August 29 [5][12]. Group 5: High-Frequency Data Review - Economic activity indices for the US and Germany showed slight improvement, with the US WEI index at 2.54% for the week of August 16, up from 2.50% the previous week [6][13]. - US retail sales showed a slight year-on-year increase of 5.9% for the week of August 15, compared to 5.7% the previous week [16][22]. - Initial jobless claims in the US were weaker than expected, with 235,000 claims for the week of August 16, against a forecast of 225,000 [24]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - The US financial conditions index remained stable, while the Eurozone's index showed a slight tightening [7][32]. - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with slight fluctuations in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][34]. - Long-term bond yield spreads narrowed in the US, Japan, and Germany, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [7][37].

经济学家预计11月将再次降息，明年年初还将有一次，最终利率将降至3.1%。 西太平洋银行澳大利亚宏观经济预测主管马修·哈桑表示，澳大利亚消费者信心指数上次突破100点还是 42个月前，这是该调查自1974年启动以来持续时间第二长的悲观周期，仅次于1990年代初的经济衰退。 哈桑称，数据表明"消费者长期悲观情绪可能终于接近尾声"，并指出该指数所有分项均实现增长。"消 费者对自身财务状况的焦虑明显减轻。" 智通财经APP获悉，澳大利亚8月消费者信心指数大幅攀升，此前该国央行实施了今年第三次降息并释 放进一步宽松信号。澳大利亚储备银行在8月12日宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至3.6%。 西太平洋银行周二公布的调查显示，消费者信心指数上涨5.7%至98.5点，创三年半新高。尽管悲观者人 数仍多于乐观者(分界线为100点)，但差距正在缩小。 澳大利亚央行自年初以来已累计降息75个基点，使现金利率降至3.6%。行长米歇尔·布洛克上周暗示， 要实现央行最新预测目标还需"再降息几次"。 哈桑表示，进一步宽松的前景"似乎强化了消费者对抵押贷款利率走低的预期，从而全面提振了市场情 绪"，"消费者对大额消费的态度开始转向积极"。 ...

来源：市场资讯 8月18日，美国商务部周五公布的数据显示，7月零售额在汽车销售和大型在线促销活动的推动下普遍增 长，这表明消费者在近几个月的支出有所增加。不过就业市场放缓和商品价格上涨可能抑制第三季消费 者支出增长。未经通胀调整的7月份零售销售额环比增长0.5%，符合预期，前值由0.60%修正为0.9%。 若剔除汽车销售，零售额则增长了0.3%。上个月零售额增长的部分原因可能是关税推动价格上涨，而 不是销量。摩根大通分析师说，在9月30日联邦政府税收抵免到期之前，人们争相购买电池驱动的电动 汽车，这在一定程度上推动了7月份的汽车销售。 另外，周五公布的密歇根大学8月份的初步报告显示，美国消费者信心指数自4月以来首次下滑、从五个 月高点滑落，长短期通胀预期均上升，反映出人们对关税影响的持续担忧。无论是信心指数还是通胀预 期指标，都逊于媒体调查的经济学家的预期。美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值58.6，不及预期 的62，前值为61.7。分项指数方面，现况指数初值60.9，创三个月低点，预期67.3，前值68；预期指数 初值57.2，预期58.1，前值57.7。密歇根大学调查负责人Joanne Hsu在一份声明 ...

Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 fell by 0.04% to $3,381.70 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 3.14% for the week [1] - Economic data released on the same day showed mixed results, leading to minimal changes in gold prices [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 0.5% month-over-month increase in retail sales for July, marking the second consecutive month of significant growth, with a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, surpassing the expected 3.5% [1] Group 2 - The New York Federal Reserve reported that the manufacturing index for New York State rose to 11.9 in August from 5.5 in July, significantly exceeding expectations of a decline to 0.0, indicating further expansion in manufacturing activity [1] - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index for August was reported at 58.6, down from 61.7 in July and below expectations of 62 [1] Group 3 - Silver futures for September delivery fell by 0.13% to $38.02 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 1.35% for the week [2]

Market Performance - On August 15, US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.08%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.40% and 0.29% respectively [4] - The large tech stocks experienced varied movements, with the US Tech Giants Index declining by 0.34%. META briefly rose nearly 2%, reaching a market capitalization of $2 trillion, but closed at $1.9726 trillion [6] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 0.74%, with notable gains from companies like Xunlei, which surged over 26% [6] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, spot gold prices rose by 0.01%, while international crude oil prices fell [2] - As of August 15, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery dropped by $1.16 to $62.80 per barrel, a decline of 1.81% [8] Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for August was reported at 58.6, marking a decline from previous values [6] - US retail sales for July increased by 0.5%, aligning with expectations, while core retail sales also grew by 0.3% [7]