Group 1 - The Ministry of National Security emphasizes that technological self-reliance is crucial for national security, highlighting the need for coordinated development and security to address risks in the tech sector [1] - The Summer Davos Forum is expected to enhance global economic stability and cooperation, with record attendance indicating a strong commitment to economic globalization and trade [2] - The total market size of bond ETFs has surpassed 352.41 billion, with two ETFs crossing the 50 billion mark, indicating a growing interest in bond investments [3] Group 2 - Huawei collaborates with Softcom and other partners to develop intelligent robots for manufacturing, focusing on humanoid robots for various applications [4] - A breakthrough in bidirectional high thermal conductivity graphite film has been achieved, which could provide critical materials for high-power device thermal management [5] - Guangzhou aims for over 90% of new cars to be L2 or higher level intelligent connected vehicles by 2027, indicating a strong push towards smart and connected automotive technology [6] Group 3 - Concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. have been raised, with predictions of a 25% drop in the S&P 500 index, reflecting investor anxiety [7] - The Chinese government is initiating a special rectification campaign in the government procurement sector to address various illegal activities, which may impact procurement practices [8] - China is actively participating in international scientific programs, including ITER and other major initiatives, showcasing its commitment to global scientific collaboration [9][10]

美联储理事Kugler并未置评FOMC货币政策或美国经济。 ...

中东局势或升级，黄金震荡偏多 尽管美国经济数据的疲软，通胀的持续下行以及中美贸易谈 判表面的顺利，使得市场对美联储降息的预期有所增加，但是美联 储议息会议及会后鲍威尔的讲话，使得市场回归现实理性。鲍威尔 的讲话明确表示，美国经济下行压力和通胀压力增加，美国面临滞 涨的风险，而美国经济滞涨对贵金属，特别是黄金利多明显。目前 中东局势仍然面临极大的不确定性，如果原油价格持续高企，美国 通胀面临上行风险，届时，美联储降息更加推迟，白银的上涨动力 将更加减弱。关注黄金白银阶段性的背离行情。美国上周初请失业 金人数录得 24.8 万人，为 2024 年 10 月 5 日当周以来新高，预期 24 万人，前值由 24.7 万人修正为 24.8 万人。美国 5 月 PPI 同比增 长 2.6%，符合预期，前值增长 2.4%。美国 5 月核心 PPI 同比增长 3%，低于预期值 3.1%，前值为 3.1%。尽管本月非农数据略有增加， 5 月非农就业人口增加 13.9 万，高于市场预期的 13 万人，美国经 济依然具有一定的韧性，但是美国经济下行压力开始加大，下行趋 势加强。 随着美元指数的持续下行，人民币汇率贬值压力减弱。中美 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced a rise, with Shanghai gold quoted at 781.30 CNY per gram, an increase of 0.03%, and Shanghai silver at 8770.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.35% [1] - International precious metals showed mixed results, with COMEX gold priced at 3369.60 USD per ounce, down by 0.44%, while COMEX silver was at 36.09 USD per ounce, up by 0.38% [1] Group 2 - The price movements of gold are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, which has tempered expectations for rate cuts, putting pressure on gold prices [3] - The recent military actions by the U.S. against Iran's nuclear facilities have introduced new uncertainties into the global economy, leading to a sharp rise in energy prices, which could suppress consumer spending and investment activities [3] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist highlighted that rising oil prices, in the context of high tariffs from the Trump administration, could significantly pressure household consumption and overall economic growth [3] Group 3 - Last week, COMEX gold prices fell by 1.98% to 3384.40 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 1.99% to 778.58 CNY per gram [4] - Current CME data indicates an 84.5% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 60% cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut by September [4]

关税仍是重大威胁。当前实际关税税率徘徊在15%左右，Berezin认为这很危险，若特朗普不尽快巩固贸易协议，企业将价格上涨转嫁给消费者， 经济或面临重大痛苦。低于10%的关税对经济破坏性较小，但他对特朗普将关税降至这一水平不抱希望，甚至认为特朗普可能提高制药、半导体 和木材等行业关税。 一些策略师希望特朗普"大而美"法案通过减税提振经济，但无资金支持的减税可能推高债券收益率，抵消刺激措施。Berezin强调，即将到来的经 济衰退中"没有其他路可走"。（陈十一） 【环球网财经综合报道】随着美国总统特朗普设定的90天"关税暂缓期"临近，7月9日若各国未与美达成贸易协议，"对等关税"将生效，投资者担 忧情绪近日加剧。 市场研究公司BCA Research分析师Peter Berezin态度悲观，预计美国经济今年大概率衰退，美股将大幅下跌。他将衰退可能性从75%降至60%，但 称这仍是基本预期，在此预期下，标普500指数将跌至4500点左右，较上周五收盘价下跌25%。他表示，无需太多事件就会引发这样的下跌，目前 很难对股市或经济持乐观态度。 Berezin指出，美国经济早有疲软迹象。自2022年初以来，职位空缺呈下降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since January 20th when Trump took office, the ratio of SP contract price to NR contract price has strengthened from 0.39 to 0.43. Pulp's resistance to decline and the opportunity to stabilize after negative factors are realized are worth attention [66]. - The weak macro - environment suppresses both the upstream import and downstream export of pulp, resulting in relatively less negative impact on pulp in a weak pattern [66]. - The impact of the temporary shutdown of Finnpulp's Joutseno plant is limited. The long - fiber import volume has increased compared to the same period last year, which will offset the impact of the shutdown [71]. - The import, inventory, and consumption data of hardwood pulp show a trend of tightening balance, but hardwood pulp is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [71]. - The operating conditions of the domestic papermaking industry have an increasing influence on pulp prices, but the current domestic data is not consistently bearish or bullish [71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Technical Analysis - Pulp - Rubber Spread and Commodity Turnover Rate - Since June, the communication between Chinese and US leaders and high - level consultations in London have eased trade relations, reducing negative factors for commodities. However, the reduction of negative factors for pulp is relatively small, and there is still an opportunity to enter the market when the spread reaches the previous low [6]. - Israel's full - scale attack on Iran this week led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The commodity turnover rate on June 13th verified that the 84% correlation between pulp and crude oil comes from consistent downstream consumption expectations. When crude oil price changes are due to supply, the impact on pulp is small; when due to consumption, the guidance for pulp price is strong [6]. 3.2 SP Single - Side - US Policy and International Oil Price - From June to now, the US economic policy uncertainty index has declined for the second consecutive month, reaching 432.6 points. Its 12 - month average increased by 77.1% year - on - year, hitting a new high since April 2021, with 12 consecutive months of expanding growth, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. - In May, international oil prices decreased month - on - month, reaching $62.8 per barrel. Its 3 - month average decreased by 23.9% year - on - year, with 4 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. 3.3 SP Single - Side - International Trade & Dollar Index - In May, China's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching $529 billion. Its 6 - month cumulative value increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for SP valuation [19]. - In May, the real broad - based dollar index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 116.6 points. Its 9 - month average increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with 15 consecutive months of marginal increase. The general cycle of the dollar index is 23 months, which is negative for SP single - side [19]. 3.4 SP Single - Side - Canadian Trade and Global Stock Market - In April, Canada's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching 128 billion Canadian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. It lags behind pulp prices and the negative impact has been fully realized [26]. - In April, the global stock market capitalization increased slightly month - on - month, reaching $119.9 trillion. Its 12 - month cumulative value increased by 7.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth [26]. 3.5 SP Single - Side - Softwood Data - The Joutseno softwood pulp mill of Finnpulp has temporarily shut down. In May, the inventory of European bleached softwood pulp decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, and consumption increased by 269,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. - In April, domestic softwood chip imports remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp imports decreased month - on - month to 838,000 tons. The total long - fiber import was 843,000 tons. The 6 - month cumulative value decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of narrowing decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. 3.6 Inventory - SP Single - Side & Hardwood - Softwood Spread - In May, the social inventory of pulp in ports including Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, and Tianjin increased month - on - month to 2.159 million tons. The SP inventory decreased month - on - month to 275,200 tons. The total of social and futures inventory was 2.434 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, which is negative for SP single - side and has been fully realized [39]. - In May, the ratio of social inventory to futures inventory was 7.84 times. Its 6 - month average increased by 35.4% year - on - year, which is negative for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread but with limited amplitude [39]. 3.7 SP Single - Side - Import and Export - In May, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion. In April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.214 billion. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [46]. - In May, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 5.4% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline [46]. 3.8 SP Single - Side - Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory - In April, the electricity consumption of the domestic papermaking industry decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh. The 12 - month cumulative electricity consumption increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with 9 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is negative for SP single - side [53]. - In April, the finished product inventory of the domestic papermaking industry increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 77.57 billion yuan. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with 13 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase [53]. 3.9 Hardwood - Softwood Pulp Spread - Import and Output - In April, the import of hardwood chips was 994,000 tons, the lowest since August 2023. The import of hardwood pulp decreased to 1.204 million tons, softwood chips remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp decreased to 838,000 tons. The ratio of short - fiber to long - fiber import was 2.02 times. Its 12 - month average increased by 13.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [59]. - In May, the consumption of hardwood pulp in domestic papermaking was 2.274 million tons, and that of softwood pulp was 534,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times. Its 9 - month average increased by 7.1% year - on - year, with 7 consecutive months of expanding growth [59].

李婷 铜周报 美联储立场偏鹰，铜价小幅回落 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价小幅回落，主因美元低位反弹及美国经济滞涨风 险升温，地缘政治冲突加剧令海外资本逐渐逃离风险资产 削减大宗商品头寸，叠加美联储一再推迟降息节点并发表 偏鹰派言论打压市场宽松预期，海外宏观缺乏对铜价的向 上驱动。基本面来看，全球主要矿山中断持续，非美地区 显性库存快速回落，LME0-3创年内新高，国内社会库存偏 低，盘面近月B结构同样走扩，精矿供应的紧缺正逐步传 导至精铜供应。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 ...

美联储戴利：迄今，美国经济和FOMC货币政策都处于良好状态。 ...

We finish off the trading week after a nice edge-of-summer break for Juneteenth yesterday. Pre-market indexes are climbing a quarter-point to a third of a point higher at this hour, with the small-cap Russell 2000 already up more than +1%. Only the Russell is up over the past five trading days, but the other indexes are approaching.The Dow is up +114 points right now, with the S&P 500 +14. The Nasdaq is +62 points at this hour, with the Russell +25 points. Currently, only the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are up ( ...

欧元区6月消费者信心指数初值、美国5月谘商会领先指标月率将于十分钟后公布。 ...