Core Viewpoint - The Mongolian central bank's monetary policy committee has decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 12% in light of the current economic and financial situation, as well as internal and external risks [1] Economic Indicators - As of August 2025, the national consumer price level stands at 8.8%, while Ulaanbaatar's rate is at 9.8% [1] - Since February, consumer price levels have gradually decreased due to tightened monetary and fiscal policies [1] Price Trends - In August, there was an increase in prices for meat, vegetables, and flour, which has pushed up the food consumer price level [1] - Future months are expected to see continued upward pressure on food prices [1] Inflation Outlook - It is anticipated that inflation will decrease to the target range by 2026 [1]

Group 1 - A 25 basis points rate cut is considered the best option for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the upcoming October monetary policy review, requiring careful communication from the central bank due to higher expectations for rate cuts post-June [1] - Economists suggest that inflation will remain benign, tracking below 2% in September and October, with CPI FY27 numbers expected to be around 4% or less, potentially dropping to 1.1% in October, the lowest since 2004 [2][4] - The CPI inflation may decline further by 65-75 basis points due to significant GST rationalization, with historical data indicating that previous rate rationalization led to a 35 basis points decline in overall inflation within a few months [3] Group 2 - The new CPI series is expected to show further moderation of 20-30 basis points, indicating that CPI inflation will likely remain at the lower end of the inflation target (4±2%) for FY26 and FY27 [4] - A rate cut is viewed as the best option given the benign inflation trajectory, positioning the RBI as a forward-looking central bank, while maintaining a status quo with a shift to an accommodative stance is seen as a second-best option [5] - The RBI has cut its policy repo rate by a cumulative 100 basis points since February, reducing it from 6.50% to 5.50% [6]

【资讯导读】 ·美参议院否决临时拨款法案政府"停摆"风险升高 ·冯德莱恩提交欧盟第19轮对俄制裁措施 ·多国宣布承认巴勒斯坦国 ·日本央行维持利率不变将出售资产缩减宽松规模 ·日本央行19日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，维持现行利率水平不变，未来将择机出售其持 有的金融资产，缩减宽松规模，推动货币政策正常化。 ·日本总务省19日公布的报告显示，今年8月日本去除生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数（CPI）同比上升 2.7%至111.6，自去年11月以来涨幅首次降至3%以下。报告显示，食品价格上涨仍是拉动日本物价上涨 的最主要原因。 ·美国国会参议院19日否决众议院通过的一项临时拨款法案，推高部分联邦政府机构因资金耗尽而"停 摆"的风险。 ·欧盟审计机构欧洲审计团发布报告指出，由于供应链脆弱、内部市场分割等结构性问题，欧盟至今未 能找到有效解决方案，常用抗生素、疫苗等药品短缺现象仍将持续存在。 ·欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩19日发表声明，宣布向成员国提交第19轮对俄罗斯制裁措施，主要涉及能 源、金融等领域。 ·英国、加拿大和澳大利亚21日分别发表声明，宣布承认巴勒斯坦国。葡萄牙外交部长保罗·兰热尔21日 也宣布，葡萄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicates that inflation in the U.S. is ongoing, significantly impacting household expenses due to rising prices of essential goods and services [2] Price Increases - Ground beef prices have reached a historic high of $6.63 per pound, driven by a 75-year low in U.S. cattle inventory, drought-related feed cost increases, and high tariffs of 35% and 50% on beef imports from Canada and Brazil respectively [2] - Banana prices have surged to a historic high of $0.67 per pound, primarily due to tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% imposed on major banana-exporting countries like Mexico and Ecuador [2] Contributing Factors - Domestic production declines and avian influenza outbreaks are contributing to rising prices of other goods, with orange production hitting a near 90-year low, pushing prices close to historical highs [2] - The avian influenza may lead to new challenges for egg prices in the fall [2] - Energy costs are also rising, with electricity prices reaching new highs, increasing monthly expenses for average households [2] Economic Challenges - The report outlines multiple challenges facing the U.S. economy, including trade barriers, supply chain bottlenecks, and extreme weather impacts, all contributing to a comprehensive rise in living costs for ordinary families [2]

新华社北京9月21日电 美国农业部20日宣布，将取消发布一项已有30年历史的家庭粮食安全报告， 理由是该报告已变得"过度政治化"。但批评人士指出，在美国通胀高企不下、就业低迷的情况下，叫停 该报告不利于解决饥饿群体问题，该措施旨在粉饰特朗普政府治下美国的粮食不安全情况。 "经对（有关）项目和经济报告持续审查，美国农业部决定将不再发布《家庭粮食安全报告》。"美 国农业部在一份声明中说，这一报告"变得过于政治化，经审查后发现，这一工作并不必要"，农业部定 于10月22日发布的2024年报告将是最后一份。 美国农业部认为，在特朗普政府领导下，美国的贫困率下降，工资和就业增长，而上述调查收集的 数据并不能准确反映国内粮食安全的实际情况。 据报道，美国《家庭粮食安全报告》自20世纪90年代开始发布，对美国不同地区和人口群体的粮食 不安全情况展开年度评估，为研究美国粮食不安全问题提供深入数据分析，成为美国各级政府制定资助 或食品援助计划及其效果评估的重要依据。 2023年的《家庭粮食安全报告》显示，13.5%美国家庭面临粮食不安全问题，为2014年以来最高水 平。 批评人士指出，在美国通货膨胀高企不下、就业低迷的情况下， ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions and Economic Projections - The Federal Reserve's recent decision aligns closely with market expectations, emphasizing the uncertainties surrounding inflation, future policy, unemployment, and the political environment [1][2] - Current monetary policy appears slightly looser than perceived, with risks leaning more towards inflation than unemployment [2][3] - Chair Powell highlighted the unusual situation of facing both inflation and employment risks simultaneously, which is not a common occurrence in economic history [3][4] Group 2: Tariffs and Inflation - The Fed's consensus suggests that tariffs may result in a one-time price increase rather than a transitory effect, indicating a permanent adjustment in prices for tariffed goods [7][9] - There is concern that the tariff-induced price increases could lead to a cycle of rising inflation expectations, higher wages, and further price increases [10][12] - The current political climate and the Fed's more politicized nature may complicate the inflation outlook, with risks of deviating from the 2% inflation target [11][12] Group 3: Corporate Reporting Changes - The administration's proposal to shift from quarterly to semiannual reporting for companies is viewed negatively, as it could undermine accountability and transparency in capital markets [17][18] - Frequent earnings reports have been crucial for the success of American capital markets, and reducing this frequency may benefit those seeking to avoid accountability [18][21] - The strength of American capital markets is attributed to their transparency and the competitive environment they foster, which could be jeopardized by the proposed changes [19][20][22]

利率点阵图本意是与市场沟通决策透明度，结果让大家看清会议室里毫无头绪。 9月份议息会议不是美联储主席鲍威尔主持的，美国总统特朗普在美联储会议室墙上投下肥胖的身影。斯蒂芬·米兰作为白宫经济顾问委员会主席，由特朗普 提名以停薪留职的身份经国会确认，成为美联储理事参加本次会议。特朗普安插米兰，提出要解雇美联储理事库克，财长贝森特公开批评货币政策，透露启 动下任主席人选面试。市场心领神会地把降息25个基点概率交易到了100%。 米兰首秀对降息25个基点投出一张反对票。政策点阵图上有一个黑点落在3%以下，预测年内还要降息100个基点。这个黑点远离落在3.75%附近的十几个黑 点，让点阵图形成了一个感叹号。坊间猜测这个黑点就是米兰。 7月份会议之后就业数据大幅调整，连续几个月的用工岗位数从原先15万上下被调低到只有2万多。失业率升高到4.3%，就业目标压力增大。另一边通胀并 未明显回落，居民消费甚至好于预期。金融市场在AI情绪和降息预期推动下创出新高。经济预测（SEP）调高今年GDP增长到1.6%（明年1.8%），失业率维 持在4.5%（明年4.4%），通胀PCE维持在3.0%（明年2.6%），政策利率降低25点到3.6 ...

The US economy heads into a packed week with investors digesting the Federal Reserve's recent quarter-point rate cut aimed at cushioning a slowing labor market and growth prospects. With inflation still above the Fed's ideal range, markets remain cautious but optimistic, pushing indexes to fresh highs. ...

Federal Reserve and Economic Perspectives - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been met with mixed reactions, with some arguing that the Fed is misreading economic signals and projecting overly pessimistic growth rates of 1.6% for this year and 1.5% for next year, despite a recent GDP growth print of 3.3% [4][5] - Steven Myron's appointment to the Federal Reserve Board is seen as a positive development, bringing a fresh perspective to an institution criticized for groupthink and a fear of economic growth [6][7] - There is a belief that the Fed's primary role should be to maintain a strong and stable dollar, rather than engaging in broader economic interventions [13][14] Immigration and Labor Market - The closure of borders and a reduction in immigration are viewed as disinflationary factors, potentially alleviating shelter inflation caused by a fixed supply of housing [2][17] - The introduction of a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas aims to discourage companies from hiring foreign workers over American graduates, reflecting concerns about job replacement and labor market dynamics [17][18] - The discussion around H-1B visas includes the potential for auctioning these visas to better align with market dynamics, which could generate significant revenue [22][23] Government Spending and Inflation - There is a strong argument that cutting government spending is more critical for controlling inflation than further interest rate cuts, with current spending levels being a significant contributor to inflationary pressures [8] - The potential revenue from tariffs and visa fees raises questions about how to best utilize these funds, with suggestions including lowering tax rates rather than providing rebates [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, gold has transformed from a silent safe-haven asset into a highly sought-after investment, with prices soaring to a record high of $3,730 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, central bank actions, and unprecedented pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve [1][5]. Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, particularly warnings about potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, has significantly increased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation remains a crucial driver for gold prices, as global monetary expansion and rising prices make gold an effective hedge against currency devaluation. The U.S. economy in 2025 shows a dichotomy with a shrinking manufacturing sector and a robust service sector, raising concerns about stagflation [4]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally have been aggressively purchasing gold, with a net purchase of 1,136 tons in 2024, marking the second-highest level in history. The top buyers in early 2025 were China, Poland, and Turkey, collectively accounting for over 50% of purchases [4]. Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has shifted significantly under pressure from Trump, with expectations of interest rate cuts following weak economic data. The market anticipates a 95.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September 2025 [5][6]. European Economic Risks - The Eurozone faces significant economic challenges, including slow growth and high debt levels, which further support gold prices. The EU's GDP growth is projected at only 1.1% for 2025, with debt-to-GDP ratios increasing [7]. Broader Market Implications - The rise in gold prices is expected to positively impact other resource assets, with historical trends indicating that a gold bull market often correlates with increased activity in the broader commodities sector. Silver has also seen significant price increases, driven by both investment and industrial demand [7]. Investment Outlook - Major investment banks have raised their gold price targets, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target of $3,800 per ounce and Goldman Sachs maintaining a target of $3,700 for the end of 2025. However, the rapid price increase raises concerns about potential corrections [9]. Tax Implications - Starting January 2026, gold transactions will incur a 6% value-added tax and a 5% consumption tax, which will directly affect investment returns. For example, a $100,000 investment could incur an additional $11,000 in taxes [11].