1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the current economic situation from the perspectives of production, demand, CPI, and PPI. It points out that there are seasonal fluctuations in production, low - base effects affect the real - estate market, and there are price changes in various commodities due to multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and geopolitical events [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Low - base Supports the Real - estate Market's Year - on - Year and Month - on - Month Increase 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption shows a seasonal decline. On February 3, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 81.4 million tons, a 5.7% decrease from January 27. On January 30, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 222.0 million tons, a 7.5% decrease from January 22. With the approaching of the Spring Festival and rising temperatures, power plant daily consumption may further decline [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level. On January 30, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.0%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 23, while the capacity utilization rate was 85.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 89.8% on January 30, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from January 23. Due to the Spring Festival, demand is almost stagnant, but steel mills' production remains relatively high, leading to accelerated inventory accumulation [16]. - The tire operating rate remains stable. On January 29, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 62.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from January 22, and the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 74.8%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from January 22. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has a seasonal decline. On January 29, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 84.2%, a 2.5 - percentage - point decrease from January 22, and the operating rate of downstream looms was 42.4%, an 8.8 - percentage - point decrease from January 22 [18]. 3.1.2 Demand: Low - base Supports the Real - estate Market's Year - on - Year and Month - on - Month Increase - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has a passive increase due to the low - base effect. From February 1 - 3, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 18.7 million square meters, an 181.0% increase from the same period in January, a 1615.3% increase from the same period in February last year, a 32.1% decrease from the same period in February 2024, and a 42.6% decrease from the same period in February 2023. Sales areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities increased by 4474.6%, 1028.3%, and 2830.0% year - on - year respectively [23]. - The auto market is weakening. In January, retail sales decreased by 28% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 35% year - on - year. The change in the auto trade - in policy has affected consumers' purchasing willingness [27]. - Steel prices are fluctuating weakly. On February 3, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.9%, increased by 1.1%, decreased by 0.6%, and decreased by 0.3% respectively compared with January 27. Steel inventory is accumulating more slowly than in previous years [33]. - Cement prices are hitting new lows. On February 3, the national cement price index decreased by 0.8% compared with January 27. Cement demand is weak in different regions due to weather and other factors, but the year - on - year decline in prices is narrowing [34]. - Glass prices remain stable. On February 3, the active glass futures contract price was 1073 yuan/ton, the same as on January 27. The month - on - month decline in glass prices has occurred, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing [39]. - The decline in container shipping freight rate indices has further expanded. On January 30, the CCFI index decreased by 2.7% compared with January 23, and the SCFI index decreased by 9.7%. Due to the long holiday in Asian countries during the Spring Festival and reduced expected shipments before the Spring Festival, there is an oversupply of shipping capacity in the short - term, and freight rates are under pressure [42]. 3.2 Inflation: Intensified Fluctuations in Industrial Product Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Turn Downward - Pork prices turn downward. On February 3, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, a 0.5% decrease from January 27. Although it is the pre - festival stocking peak, the short - term support from consumption is limited, and the supply pressure is still large [49]. - The agricultural product price index is fluctuating. On February 3, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.3% compared with January 27. Different agricultural products have different price trends. Since February, the agricultural product wholesale price index has increased year - on - year and month - on - month [53]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Rise and Then Fall - Oil prices rise and then fall. On February 3, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.9 and 63.2 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 0.5% and 1.3% increase from January 27. Geopolitical factors have led to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, and short - term volatility will continue [57]. - Copper prices rise while aluminum prices fall. On February 3, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 2.5% and decreased by 2.0% respectively compared with January 27. The domestic commodity index has a month - on - month decline [64]. - Industrial product prices have different month - on - month trends. Since February, the prices of wire rod, coking coal, coke, and steam coal have increased month - on - month, while other industrial products have decreased, with rebar and cement having relatively large declines. The year - on - year decline in most industrial product prices is narrowing [68].

俄罗斯总统普京2月3日表示，俄罗斯2025年国内生产总值增长1%，增速放缓符合预期。 普京当天在莫斯科就经济问题召开会议时说，2025年，俄罗斯经济增长率低于2023年的4.1%和 2024年的4.3%。他表示，2025年经济增长放缓符合预期，主要是因为采取了旨在降低通胀的专项措 施。 2025年12月，普京在"年度盘点"活动上表示，预计俄罗斯2025年GDP增长率为1%，过去三年累计 增长率达9.7%。 来源 央视新闻 普京介绍，俄罗斯2025年通胀率已经下降到5.6%，低于2024年的9.5%。另外，截至1月26日，俄今 年年化通胀率为6.4%。普京预计，今年俄通胀率有望降至5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - A sudden announcement from Washington regarding Kevin Walsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair led to a significant drop in gold and silver prices, erasing billions in market value and catching investors off guard [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold and silver prices had been on an upward trend for months, but the announcement caused gold to experience its worst sell-off since 2013 and silver its largest single-day drop since 1980 [2]. - The volatility in the market has raised concerns about future fluctuations, as investors are closely monitoring policy signals from Washington and potential changes from the Federal Reserve [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Walsh is viewed as a proponent of free markets and inflation hawkishness, differing from the current Federal Reserve leadership, which has focused on maintaining low borrowing costs [1]. - His past record suggests a more stringent approach to inflation and monetary policy, potentially requiring tighter monetary policy measures, including interest rate hikes, which could strengthen the dollar and reduce the appeal of gold and silver as safe-haven assets [1]. Group 3: Long-term Demand - Despite the recent volatility, ongoing purchases by foreign central banks, including China, continue to support long-term demand for gold, as geopolitical tensions drive efforts to diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce reliance on the dollar [3].

2025年12月，普京在"年度盘点"活动上表示，预计俄罗斯2025年GDP增长率为1%，过去三年累计增长 率达9.7%。 （文章来源：新华社） 俄罗斯总统普京3日表示，俄罗斯2025年国内生产总值增长1%，增速放缓符合预期。 普京当天在莫斯科就经济问题召开会议时说，2025年，俄罗斯经济增长率低于2023年的4.1%和2024年 的4.3%。他表示，2025年经济增长放缓符合预期，主要是因为采取了旨在降低通胀的专项措施。 普京介绍，俄罗斯2025年通胀率已经下降到5.6%，低于2024年的9.5%。另外，截至1月26日，俄今年年 化通胀率为6.4%。普京预计，今年俄通胀率有望降至5%。 ...

特朗普的最新举动再次引发了全球金融界的震动。他推出的美联储主席人选凯文沃什，绝非一次寻常的人事任命，其背后蕴含的政治考量令人深思。沃什身 份特殊，他是特朗普一位相识已久的老友的女婿，这层关系直白地昭示了特朗普欲将美联储这一全球金融中枢，置于亲信掌控之下的意图。那么，他究竟有 何盘算？ 当前，悬挂在美国政府头顶的达三万多亿美元的庞大债务，无疑是特朗普最焦灼的心头大石。每年支付的利息就高达数千亿美元，着实是一笔天文数字。解 决这一困境，理论上无非是三条路径：增税、削减开支，或是施压美联储降息。前两条路无疑会触动既得利益者，树敌无数，而第三种，让美联储出手，则 显得最为"省事"。 然而，要让美联储降低利率，当前面临的最大障碍便是现任主席鲍威尔的"不配合"。尽管鲍威尔是特朗普第一个任期内提名的，但他上任后却坚守美联储的 独立性原则，完全以经济数据为依归，该加息加息，该降息降息，对来自白宫的压力置若罔闻。特朗普因此在社交媒体上多次表达愤怒，要求其辞职，但鲍 威尔岿然不动，选择坚守任期终点。 因此，特朗普这次可谓是汲取了教训，选择了"自己人"登台。沃什此番履新，简直像是为这个职位量身定制。他的妻子简兰黛，是雅诗兰黛集团的 ...

该增幅高于2025年11月份的3.2%，也高于市场预测的3.3%。其中，服务业通胀从11月份的4.4%升至 4.5%。由于烟草产品消费税上调，同时圣诞节期间航班安排的时间因素，烟草和机票价格上涨成为推 动12月份消费者价格整体上升的最大原因。 报道称，尽管2025年12月份英通胀是七国集团(G7)中最高的，但随着2025年公用事业成本以及其他由政 府管控的收费项目涨幅逐渐退出同比比较，未来几个月英通胀增幅预计将显著放缓。英央行行长贝利表 示，通胀或将在2026年4月份或5月份接近央行设定的2%的目标。 据路透社1月21日报道，英国国家统计局当天公布的最新数据显示，2025年12月份英通胀升至3.4%，高 于预期，在全球主要发达经济体中涨幅最大，但预计未来几个月将放缓。 ...

彭博经济学家让·达尔巴德经研究分析后指出："法国 1 月份通胀数据意外下行，这主要归因于一些临时 性因素。目前，价格涨幅或许已经触达底部，后续在电力相关基数效应的推动下，应会开始缓慢回升。 不过，即便存在这样的回升趋势，最新数据依旧证实，法国整体潜在的通胀动力依旧十分疲弱。展望未 来，风险明显呈下行态势，这主要反映出欧元走强所带来的拖累影响。" 智通财经APP获悉，法国通货膨胀率意外下滑至五年来最低水平，且仍远低于欧洲央行设定的 2%目 标，这主要得益于能源价格的下跌。法国国家统计与经济研究所(Insee)公布的数据显示，1 月份消费者 价格同比上涨 0.4%，而前一个月的涨幅为 0.7%。这一涨幅低于一项针对 20 位分析师调查得出的 0.6% 的预估中值，仅有一位分析师预测到了该结果，这也是自 2020 年 12 月以来最弱的涨幅表现。 在欧元区的主要经济体里，法国的通胀率始终显得"格格不入"。周二公布的最新数据，大概率不会让本 周齐聚法兰克福、为决定借贷成本而商讨的欧洲央行官员们感到担忧。毕竟，当前欧元区整体物价涨幅 已接近 2%，基于此情况，预计他们将维持存款利率不变。 事实上，欧元区其他国家的通胀率 ...

根据美国经济分析局的最新数据，10月份美国的通胀率同比已经达到了4.1%，这一增幅创下了30年来 的最高纪录，危机的苗头已经逐渐显现。事实上，早在几个月前，当美国的通货膨胀率暴涨时，就已经 有很多专家对政府的政策提出质疑。大家普遍担心，若通胀问题持续下去，将直接影响消费者的信心指 数，最终可能引发金融体系的不稳定。尽管如此，当时美国总统拜登却坚称，通货膨胀只是暂时性的， 并表示当前的财政策略能够激励企业拓展业务、增强市场竞争力，增加市场流动性，等到通货膨胀过去 之后，经济将顺利过渡到通缩阶段。 根据观察者网的报道，11月30日，美国面临的通货膨胀问题愈发严峻，市场的压力不断加大，美联储主 席鲍威尔终于忍不住表态，正式放弃了此前宣称通胀只是暂时现象的说法，公开承认，美联储保守估计 当前的通货膨胀可能会持续到明年6月。与此同时，鲍威尔还透露，考虑到当前形势，未来美联储将可 能提前几个月缩减债券购买的规模，并且开始收缩资产负债表。原本预定明年6月才结束的债券购买计 划，突然变动，意味着美联储随时都有可能再次加息。显然，如何应对日益严重的通货膨胀，已成为美 国最紧迫的问题之一。 然而，如今鲍威尔的表态彻底戳破了拜登的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for storage chips is surging due to AI investments, leading to a significant price increase and potential disruptions in various industries, including automotive and consumer electronics [2][5][12]. Group 1: Storage Chip Market Dynamics - The demand for storage chips, particularly for AI applications, is expected to double in price within six months, with projections indicating a 40-50% price increase in the last quarter of 2025 [5][12]. - Major companies like Micron Technology and SK Hynix are prioritizing production for AI-related products, causing delays in supply for smartphones and personal computers [9][11]. - The reliance on a few companies for storage chip supply, such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, has led to instability in the DRAM market [11]. Group 2: Impact on Automotive and Consumer Electronics - The automotive industry is facing delays in vehicle deliveries due to semiconductor shortages, and a similar situation is anticipated with storage chips, potentially halting production [6][9]. - Analysts warn of a "panic buying" phenomenon in the automotive sector, where manufacturers may over-order chips due to uncertainty, reminiscent of the "toilet paper effect" seen during the pandemic [4]. - Consumer electronics, particularly smartphones and PCs, may see price increases of 6-8% due to the rising costs of storage chips, which could lead to reduced consumer purchases and market contraction [7][12]. Group 3: Future Projections - AI investment is projected to continue increasing, with global data center investments expected to double by 2027, reaching $1 trillion [12]. - The ongoing chip shortage could lead to intensified competition among nations for semiconductor production, as governments view chips as strategic economic assets [12].

【导读】澳洲联储现金利率上调25个基点至3.85%，符合市场预期 消息公布后，澳元直线冲高，涨超1%。 | 〈 | 澳元兑美元 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | AUDUSD.FX | | | | | 0.70176 | 前收 | | 开盘 | 0.69485 | | +0.00701 +1.01% | 英品 | 0.70177 | 买入 > | 0.70176 | | 最高 0.70221 | 今年来 | 5.16% | 20 日 日 2 | 4.51% | | 最低 0.69446 | 10 日 | 4.51% | 60 日 | 7.37% | | સ્ત્રેન્વે | | 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ 更多 | | (0) | | 叠加 | | | 均价: -- CONTRACT / V. VIJU | 0 | | 0.70220 | | | | | | | | | 22:47 0.70174 22:47 0.70174 0.00% | 0 0 | | | | | 22:47 0.70174 | 0 | | 174 ---- | | | 22:47 0 ...