Group 1: Oil Market - Crude oil prices increased as traders assessed multiple geopolitical risks that could lead to premiums, while also evaluating U.S. controls on Venezuelan oil [2][14] - WTI crude oil rose by 3.2%, settling at $57.76 per barrel, with prices continuing to climb post-settlement [15] - Brent crude oil for March delivery settled up 3.4% at $61.99 per barrel [16] Group 2: Base Metals - Copper prices fell, with LME copper down 1.39% to $12,720.5 per ton, as the dollar reached a two-week high [6][18] - A recent study by S&P Global indicated that the competition in artificial intelligence and increased defense spending could exacerbate the anticipated copper supply shortage [5][17] Group 3: Precious Metals - Silver prices declined for the second consecutive day, with a potential sell-off of silver futures worth approximately $6.8 billion expected due to annual commodity index rebalancing [10][22] - Following a nearly 4% drop the previous day, silver saw a further decline of 5.5%, driven by passive tracking funds selling to match new index weight requirements [10][22] - Gold prices stabilized, with spot gold rising by 0.48% to $4,477.65 per ounce [12][23]

美股周四早盘小幅走低，受到大型科技股的拖累。在前期人工智能板块推动大幅上涨后，交易员纷纷锁 定获利，同时评估有关美国经济的喜忧参杂的信号。国防板块上扬，因美国总统特朗普暗示计划提高军 费开支。 截至发稿，标普500指数跌0.1%；纳斯达克100指数跌0.3%，或终结三日涨势；道指跌0.2%。洛克希德 马丁和Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc．等企业股价上涨逾7%，此前特朗普表示计划到2027年将 军事开支提高至1.5万亿美元。 美股周四早盘小幅走低，受到大型科技股的拖累。在前期人工智能板块推动大幅上涨后，交易员纷纷锁 定获利，同时评估有关美国经济的喜忧参杂的信号。国防板块上扬，因美国总统特朗普暗示计划提高军 费开支。 截至发稿，标普500指数跌0.1%；纳斯达克100指数跌0.3%，或终结三日涨势；道指跌0.2%。洛克希德 马丁和Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc．等企业股价上涨逾7%，此前特朗普表示计划到2027年将 军事开支提高至1.5万亿美元。 全球债券涨势停滞。美国企业12月宣布裁员人数降至17个月低点，可能缓解对 ...

北京时间1月8日晚，美股周四低开。不断加剧的地缘政治紧张局势可能会考验股市的韧性。特朗普呼吁 将国防预算提高到1.5万亿美元后，国防板块普涨。数据显示美国第三季度生产率大幅上升并显著压低 劳动力成本，而裁员水平则保持低位。 周三美股收跌，标普500指数和道指触及历史高点后收跌。此次下跌源于原油价格下滑，此前美国总统 特朗普表示，委内瑞拉临时当局将向美国移交多达5000万桶石油，引发市场对石油供应增加的担忧。周 四原油价格反弹，美国原油价格上涨逾1%。 2026年之前，市场在很大程度上忽视了全球地缘政治风险，但随着新一年的开始，不断加剧的紧张局势 可能会考验股市的韧性。 古根海姆合伙人公司首席投资官Anne Walsh表示："地缘政治新闻往往会在极短时间内推动市场……但 它们通常很快被定价消化，随后市场又会回归关注那些更能驱动价格走势的因素，比如利润、利润率、 估值及其他指标。最终的结果是，'逢低买入'的心态会重新出现，而这些极为有限的机会可用于调整投 资组合。" Walsh表示："如果可以这么说的话，保持多元化并做好准备或许是保护投资组合、同时把握机会的最 佳'保险'。" 她称，股市的基本面仍然"相当不错"， ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. oil giants are extremely cautious about re-entering the Venezuelan market despite President Trump's pressure for investment, with industry leaders demanding clear legal and financial guarantees from Washington [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Climate - The geopolitical shifts have severely impacted investor confidence, with widespread concerns about political, legal risks, and the low oil price environment hindering substantial investments [2]. - U.S. energy companies believe that without formal government backing, large-scale projects in Venezuela are unlikely to proceed [3]. - A senior executive from a major U.S. energy company emphasized the need for "serious guarantees" from the government before committing to investments in Venezuela [3]. Group 2: Policy Uncertainty - Investors are worried about the continuity of policies beyond the current presidential term, raising concerns about legal, financial, and political risks associated with investing in Venezuela [4]. - Questions about the legitimacy of the Venezuelan government and the legal framework for contracts further exacerbate capital's risk-averse sentiment [4]. - Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged that U.S. oil giants are unlikely to invest billions in new infrastructure in Venezuela in the near term [4]. Group 3: Global Energy Strategy - The Trump administration's takeover of Venezuela's oil sector is viewed as part of a broader agenda to reshape global energy trade according to U.S. terms [5]. - Despite signals from the U.S. government allowing oilfield service companies to operate in Venezuela, industry executives believe that administrative orders and political pressure are insufficient to mitigate actual business risks [5]. - The current environment in Venezuela is still regarded as a "high-risk area" for energy giants accustomed to long-term planning and stable returns [5].

今日（1月8日），以比特币为首的加密货币集体跳水。比特币盘中一度跌破9万美元，以太坊一度跌近 5%，XRP一度大跌近8%。coinglass数据显示，24小时内，加密货币市场全网合约爆仓超4.6亿美元，爆 仓人数高达12.77万人。 全线跳水！ 美股三大股指期货也全线下跌，纳指期货一度跌超0.60%，标普500指数期货一度跌0.40%，道指期货一 度跌0.30%。截至发稿，跌幅均有所收窄。 "流入比特币的资金已经干涸。"Ki Young J周三表示，随着金银价格飙升，近期资金正流向股票和贵金 属领域。尽管比特币往往在年初展现出强劲动能，但他认为当前环境更可能带来一段价格温和波动的时 期，而非大幅上涨或抛售。 地缘政治风险 分析人士指出，随着全球地缘政治局势持续紧张，风险资产的价格受到压制。另外，投资者正等待美国 最高法院就特朗普加征关税的合法性作出裁决。该裁决预计将于当地时间周五公布，届时可能会导致市 场波动。 比特币跳水 今日，投机属性较强的加密货币市场，再度迎来跳水行情。比特币盘中跌幅一度超过3%，最低触及 8.96万美元。其他加密货币方面，BNB盘中一度跌超4%，以太坊一度跌近5%，艾达币一度跌超6%， ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC's chief precious metals analyst, James Steel, forecasts that gold prices may reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of this year due to geopolitical risks and rising fiscal debt [1][3]. Group 1: Price Predictions - Short-term gold prices are expected to rise significantly, but the increase will moderate as the year progresses [1][3]. - HSBC anticipates that gold prices will fluctuate between $5,050 and $3,950 per ounce in 2026, with an estimated year-end price of $4,450 [4]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The current price surge is driven by safe-haven buying and risk aversion, partly due to a weak dollar and policy uncertainty [1][3]. - Fiscal concerns and a weakening dollar are expected to support gold prices and limit the extent of any potential pullback [4]. Group 3: Adjustments in Forecast - The average price forecast for 2026 has been revised down from $4,600 to $4,587 [2][5].

投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月08日16时41分 今日贵金属承压回落，沪金主力收跌0.73%，沪银主力收跌5.90%，铂金主力收跌6.72%，钯金主力收涨跌3.57%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，特朗普政府 正在讨论获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括军事选项。美国抓捕马杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国去年12月 "小非农"温和复苏。美国11月职位空缺降至14个月新低，表明劳动力需求减弱。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年 初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美 联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或 到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯 金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人 ...

全线跳水！ 今日（1月8日），以比特币为首的加密货币集体跳水。比特币盘中一度跌破9万美元，以太坊一度跌近5%， XRP一度大跌近8%。coinglass数据显示，24小时内，加密货币市场全网合约爆仓超4.6亿美元，爆仓人数高达 12.77万人。 美股三大股指期货也全线下跌，纳指期货一度跌超0.60%，标普500指数期货一度跌0.40%，道指期货一度跌 0.30%。截至发稿，跌幅均有所收窄。 分析人士指出，随着全球地缘政治局势持续紧张，风险资产的价格受到压制。另外，投资者正等待美国最高法 院就特朗普加征关税的合法性作出裁决。该裁决预计将于当地时间周五公布，届时可能会导致市场波动。 比特币跳水 今日，投机属性较强的加密货币市场，再度迎来跳水行情。比特币盘中跌幅一度超过3%，最低触及8.96万美 元。其他加密货币方面，BNB盘中一度跌超4%，以太坊一度跌近5%，艾达币一度跌超6%，XRP一度跌近 8%。截至发稿，比特币下跌2.71%报9.03万美元，以太坊跌近4%，XRP跌超7%，艾达币跌超5%，BNB跌 3.85%。 | 名称 ▼ | 代码 ▼ | 价格 (USD) ▼ | 成交量(24H) ▼ | 交易份额 ▼ ...

摘要周四(1月8日)亚欧时段，国际黄金震荡走弱，一度跌0.9%至4416美元/盎司，创近三日新低。美元 持稳于逾两周高点施压金价，投资者谨慎观望，聚焦周五非农报告以研判美联储政策路径，同时评估美 干预委内瑞拉的地缘影响。交易员权衡地缘紧张(如美扣押委油轮)与宏观信号(美11月职位空缺创14个月 新低)：弱就业或强化降息预期支撑金价，但美元走强及高位获利了结抑制涨幅。 周四(1月8日)亚欧时段，国际黄金震荡走弱，一度跌0.9%至4416美元/盎司，创近三日新低。美元持稳 于逾两周高点施压金价，投资者谨慎观望，聚焦周五非农报告以研判美联储政策路径，同时评估美干预 委内瑞拉的地缘影响。交易员权衡地缘紧张(如美扣押委油轮)与宏观信号(美11月职位空缺创14个月新 低)：弱就业或强化降息预期支撑金价，但美元走强及高位获利了结抑制涨幅。 【要闻速递】 世界黄金协会最新数据显示，11月全球央行净购入黄金45吨，虽较10月略降，但仍处于年内高位。年初 至今累计购入量接近297吨，新兴市场央行持续大规模增持。摩根士丹利预计，受利率下降、美联储领 导层变动及央行和基金强劲买盘推动，今年第四季度金价或升至每盎司4800美元。 今晚 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn on January 8, 2026, with gold prices dropping nearly $70 after reaching the $4500 mark, leading to profit-taking by investors [1] - Bloomberg Commodity Index will initiate its annual weight adjustment starting January 8, which is expected to trigger over $10 billion in long positions liquidation for gold and silver futures [1] - Despite the recent price drop, institutions remain optimistic about the precious metals market for the year, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Gold prices initially surged due to news from Venezuela but faced a sharp decline after hitting resistance at $4500, with the market reacting to slightly disappointing ADP employment data [2] - The market anticipates a total interest rate cut of 61 basis points this year, with focus shifting to the upcoming non-farm payroll report [2] - Central banks in Asia have increased their gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, indicating a bullish sentiment despite the modest increase in quantity [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold faces resistance in the $4465-$4470 range, with a potential upward breakout targeting $4520-$4550 if it maintains above $4400 [3] - Silver is viewed positively in the long term, with target prices potentially reaching $100-$120, translating to domestic prices of 23-24 yuan per gram and 28-30 yuan per gram [3] - Platinum and palladium have entered a consolidation phase after significant declines, with recommendations for cautious investment strategies in these metals [4]