Market Overview - Global major stock markets continued to rise, supported by unexpectedly strong U.S. consumer spending data, alleviating concerns about economic resilience and improving overall risk sentiment [1] - U.S. stock indices saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 indices performing particularly well, while European markets also recorded widespread increases [1] Key Market Movements - S&P 500 Index rose by 0.28% to 6,715.50 points - Dow Jones Index increased by 0.65% to 46,247.29 points - Nasdaq 100 Index gained 0.36% to 24,815.75 points - Russell 2000 Index climbed 0.97% to 2,434.32 points - The rise in U.S. consumer spending data eased direct concerns about growth resilience, supporting the stock market [5] - U.S. Treasury yields remained relatively stable after earlier fluctuations, providing breathing room for the market and improving sentiment towards risk assets [5] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil rose by 0.45% to $65.21 per barrel, driven by supply risks from ongoing export restrictions in Russia and concerns over Middle Eastern supply [5] - Gold futures increased by 1.02% to $3,775.30 per ounce, supported by ongoing uncertainties regarding Federal Reserve policy and inflation risks [5] European Market Performance - The FTSE 100 Index rose by 0.77% to 9,284.83 points - DAX (Germany) increased by 0.87% to 23,739.47 points - CAC 40 (France) gained 0.97% to 7,870.68 points - The European Stoxx 50 Index rose by 1.01% to 5,449.70 points, reflecting strong performance in energy and commodity stocks due to rising oil prices [5] Notable Stock Movements - Electronic Arts (EA) surged approximately 15% on reports of a potential acquisition offer, sparking speculation and interest in the gaming sector [5] - Boeing (BA) rose about 4% following reports that the FAA may ease some production restrictions on the 737 MAX and 787 aircraft, improving delivery prospects [5] - NIO (NIO) fell approximately 6% due to ongoing losses and pricing pressures in the Chinese electric vehicle market, overshadowing optimism regarding policy support [5] Upcoming Focus - Market attention is shifting towards macroeconomic data, including key U.S. inflation (PCE), consumer confidence, and manufacturing data, which will test market confidence in the Federal Reserve's next steps [6] - The commodity market may remain volatile in response to oil supply disruptions and demand hopes, with gold potentially attracting safe-haven funds if inflation surprises or geopolitical tensions escalate [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ is considering increasing production by at least 137,000 barrels per day next month, which may lead to an oversupply in the market and put downward pressure on oil prices [3][5]. - Trump announced that Israel has agreed to the US - proposed "20 - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict, reducing geopolitical concerns and adding downward pressure on oil prices [3]. - The negotiation on the US government spending agreement has not made progress, increasing the risk of a government shutdown and further suppressing oil prices [3]. - It is expected that crude oil will operate at a low level today, with short - term trading in the range of 475 - 485, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump got support from Netanyahu on the Gaza peace proposal, but Hamas' stance is uncertain; the meeting on avoiding a US government shutdown made no progress; OPEC+ may approve a new round of production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5, which is bearish [3]. - **Basis**: On September 29, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.48 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $68.54 per barrel, with a basis of $24.46 per barrel, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 3.821 million barrels in the week ending September 19; EIA inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels in the week ending September 19, contrary to the expected increase of 235,000 barrels; Cushing area inventory increased by 177,000 barrels in the week ending September 19; Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels as of September 26, which is bullish [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is above the average, showing a neutral signal [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of September 16, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased, which is bullish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - OPEC+ is considering increasing production by at least 137,000 barrels per day next month. Although this may lead to an oversupply, it also raises concerns about whether member countries' production capacity has reached its limit. Analysts believe that it is most likely for OPEC+ to decide on an 11 - month production increase of 137,000 barrels per day at the October 5 meeting. Due to geopolitical tensions, oil prices are still expected to rise monthly and quarterly [5]. - Trump announced that Israel has agreed to the US - proposed "20 - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict, reducing geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, the export of crude oil from northern Iraq to Turkish ports via pipeline has resumed [5]. - Saudi Arabia is expected to raise the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil to Asian buyers in November by 20 - 40 cents per barrel [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The EU has not reached a unified opinion on banning Russian oil imports [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The US government has a high risk of shutdown; OPEC+ is considering further production increases; the US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; the situation in the Middle East may deteriorate [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil were $69.22, $65.72, 489.1 yuan, and $70.53 respectively, with changes of $0.64 (0.93%), $0.74 (1.14%), 0.20 yuan (0.04%), and - $0.08 (- 0.11%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil were $72.09, $65.72, $70.88, $66.72, and $70.71 respectively, with changes of $1.50 (2.12%), $0.74 (1.14%), $0.05 (0.07%), $0.63 (0.95%), and - $0.09 (- 0.13%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 3.821 million barrels in the week ending September 19; EIA inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels in the week ending September 19 [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 16, the net long position was 98,709, an increase of 16,865; as of September 23, it was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of September 16, the net long position was 232,171, an increase of 22,593; as of September 23, it was 220,579, a decrease of 11,592 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal trends. Different commodities and financial instruments present diverse investment opportunities and risks. For example, some commodities like manganese silicon are recommended for long - positions, while others like apples are advised to be shorted. In the financial market, a positive external liquidity environment is observed for the Greater China region's stock indices, and a steeper yield curve is expected for Treasury bonds [2][44][45]. 3. Summary by Commodity and Financial Instrument Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Supply is in a multi - factor state with both increases and geopolitical risks. Oil inventory accumulation is clear in Q3. It's recommended to hold a protective strategy of short futures and long call options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the downward trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten due to geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weaker fundamental situation with abundant supply and weak demand [20]. - **Asphalt**: Pre - holiday inventory decreases. October production plan is in line with expectations, and demand is seasonally boosted, so the price is expected to be slightly strong [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Due to weather - related import changes and expected increase in demand, the price has rebounded slightly [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: They show a strong trend in the medium - term but have high volatility risks during the National Day holiday, so it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are rising. Grasberg's supply impact is being digested. Technically, there is potential for a trend breakthrough, but basic demand has a negative expectation [4]. - **Aluminum**: It's relatively stable. September consumption is below expectations, and it faces resistance at the March high. Post - holiday peak - season feedback is to be watched [5]. - **Zinc**: As the holiday approaches, the fundamentals weaken. Attention should be paid to the support level, and short - positions are advised to take profits before the holiday [8]. - **Lead**: Supply exceeds demand during the holiday, and the price has dropped. Cost support should be noted [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is weakly running. Inventory changes vary, and it's waiting for the boost from copper prices [10]. - **Tin**: Prices have risen due to Indonesia's policy. Attention should be paid to the policy's impact and post - holiday inventory changes [11]. - **Other Metals** - **Alumina**: Supply is in surplus, and the price is weakly running [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with aluminum. Supply and demand factors lead to a mainly oscillating trend [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: With the "Three - Carbon" initiative, there is an upward price drive. It's recommended to go long at low prices [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: Similar to manganese silicon, it has an upward price drive and good demand. Long - positions at low prices are recommended [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and supply exceeds demand. Policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment should be watched [23]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The fundamental situation is okay, but cost and demand factors are dragging down the market [24]. - **Styrene**: Cost support is strengthening, but high inventory suppresses the price [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Supply is controllable, and demand provides some support, but polypropylene faces price pressure [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak situation, and caustic soda may oscillate [27]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand situation is still under pressure after the holiday [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply pressure is not large in the short - term but may increase in the medium - term [29]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is boosted by demand, and bottle - chip is affected by short - term factors [30]. Grains and Oils - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Soybeans face seasonal and export challenges. Palm oil has supply - side drivers in the fourth quarter. A protective long - call strategy can be considered [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Due to holiday factors, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [35]. - **Soybean**: Domestic soybeans perform better in the short - term. Supply situations in different periods need attention [36]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Supply pressure is high, and the price is falling. The industry's capacity reduction process should be watched [37]. - **Eggs**: For far - month contracts, long - positions can be considered, while for near - month contracts, the departure of short - funds should be watched [38]. - **Cotton**: The short - term trend is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see [39]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the focus is on the next season's production estimate in China [40]. - **Apples**: Although the spot market is good, the price faces pressure, and a short - position strategy is recommended [41]. - **Wood**: The supply - demand situation is improving, and a long - position strategy is recommended [42]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price is falling, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [43]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Indices**: They are showing strength. The external liquidity environment is positive, and a moderate increase in the allocation of cyclical styles can be considered [44]. - **Treasury Bonds**: They are falling, and a steeper yield curve is expected [45].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish consolidation [2] - PP: Bearish consolidation [2] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [6] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [6] Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances and OPEC+ production expansion lead to increased crude oil price volatility, with a downward pressure on prices in the long - term. For other energy and chemical products, their prices are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory, showing different trends [2][4][6] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell significantly, with WTI down 3.45%, Brent down 3.08%, and SC up 1.10% [7] - **Basic Logic**: In mid - to late September, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries caused oil prices to rebound. The focus is on the October 5 OPEC+ meeting, and in the long - term, supply may exceed demand, likely pushing oil prices down to around $60 [8] - **Fundamentals**: Supply from the Iraq - Turkey pipeline has recovered to 15 - 160,000 barrels per day. Indian refinery crude processing volume in August decreased by 4.4% month - on - month. As of September 19, US commercial crude inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [475 - 485] for SC [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 29, the PG main contract closed at 4,295 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [13] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of oil is weakening, downstream chemical demand is rising, and the supply is abundant during the double - festival. As of September 29, the number of warehouse receipts decreased [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [15] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,181 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [19] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. Social inventory has been decreasing for 5 weeks. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is strengthening due to the peak season of shed films [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] for L [20] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,903 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [24] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. The supply pressure may ease, and the downstream demand is entering the peak season [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [6800 - 7000] for PP [25] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,896 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [29] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are supply - strong and demand - weak, with inventory accumulating for 14 weeks. However, low prices and positive macro - expectations support the price. There are many planned device overhauls in October [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [30] PX - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [33] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices have little change, and demand - side PTA may have more overhauls later. The supply - demand balance is expected to be loose, and inventory is still relatively high [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6560 - 6670] for PX511 [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,590 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [36] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to planned overhauls. Demand has improved recently. The supply - demand balance in September is tight and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually stop loss on short positions. Hold long positions lightly before the festival and look for opportunities to short on rebounds after the festival. Focus on the range of [4560 - 4650] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On September 26, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,311 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [40] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices have little change. Terminal demand has improved, but inventory is low. The market is concerned about the supply increase from new devices [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4165 - 4240] for EG01 [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 26, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,293 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is still large, but demand has improved, and the social inventory is decreasing. Cost support is stabilizing [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [45] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 26, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, with production resuming. Domestic demand is weak, while exports are good. Inventory is accumulating [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Look for opportunities to go long on dips in the long - term [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The US government shutdown crisis and geopolitical risks support precious metal prices. Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October has decreased and the number of rate cuts in 2026 has been reduced from 3 to 2 due to robust economic and employment data, the expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and Palestine - Israel, and continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries may support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Domestic Gold**: On September 29, 2025, the futures closing price was 866.52 yuan/g, an increase of 10.46 yuan from the previous day and 11.08 yuan from the previous week; the Shanghai gold closing price was 862.50 yuan/g, an increase of 9.60 yuan from the previous day and 12.92 yuan from the previous week; the spot trading volume was 61,916 units, an increase of 11,272 units from the previous day and 8,760 units from the previous week; the spot trading volume was 61,916 units, an increase of 11,272 units from the previous day and 8,760 units from the previous week; the spot - futures basis was - 5.86 yuan [1]. - **Domestic Silver**: The futures closing price was 10,939 yuan/kg, an increase of 307 yuan from the previous day and 590 yuan from the previous week; the Shanghai silver closing price was 10,878 yuan/kg, an increase of 327 yuan from the previous day and 603 yuan from the previous week; the spot trading volume was 538,718 units, a decrease of 159,414 units from the previous day and 9,610 units from the previous week; the spot - futures basis was - 61 yuan [1]. - **International Gold**: The COMEX futures closing price was 3,862.90 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 73.10 US dollars from the previous day and 143.50 US dollars from the previous week; the London gold spot price was 3,769.85 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 163.70 US dollars from the previous week; the SPDR Gold ETF holding was 994.56 tons, a decrease of 6.01 tons from the previous day; the spot - futures basis was - 36.05 US dollars [1]. - **International Silver**: The COMEX futures closing price was 47.11 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 0.74 US dollars from the previous day and 3.75 US dollars from the previous week; the London silver spot price was 46.95 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 4.72 US dollars from the previous week; the iShare Silver ETF holding was 15,521.35 tons, an increase of 159.51 tons from the previous day; the spot - futures basis was - 0.16 US dollars [1]. Price Ratio and Other Related Data - The price ratio of gold to silver: Shanghai gold spot/Shanghai silver spot was 79.29, a decrease of 1.55 from the previous day and 3.40 from the previous week; New York gold futures/New York silver futures was 82.00, an increase of 0.26 from the previous day and a decrease of 3.77 from the previous week [1]. Other Commodity and Market Data - ICE Brent crude oil was 66.77 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.05 US dollars from the previous day and an increase of 0.72 US dollars from the previous week; Shanghai rebar was 3,097 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan from the previous day and 58 yuan from the previous week; Dalian iron ore was 784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan from the previous day and 18.5 yuan from the previous week [1]. Important Information - If the US government shuts down, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend all operations and will not release economic data. After a record - breaking rally, the value of US gold reserves has reached 1 trillion US dollars [1]. - Trump said that Israel agreed to the "20 - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict, but a senior Hamas official said they had not received the plan; Qatar said it received an apology from the Israeli prime minister, who promised not to launch a similar attack on Qatar [1]. Trading Strategy - For gold, consider going long on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,840 - 4,065 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 yuan/g and the resistance level around 880 - 930 yuan/g. For silver, for London silver, focus on the support level around 39 - 40 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 45.3 - 47.5 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/kg and the resistance level around 10,500 - 11,350 yuan/kg [1].

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices have reached a new historical high, surpassing $3840 per ounce, driven by risks of a U.S. government shutdown and escalating geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - On September 30, spot gold prices peaked at $3840.589 per ounce, marking a significant increase from the previous day's closing price of $3832.935, reflecting a rise of approximately 0.16% [2]. - COMEX gold futures also saw an upward trend, reaching a high of $3869 per ounce, with a closing price of $3867.8, up by 0.33% from the previous day [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The potential risk of a U.S. government shutdown has contributed to the surge in gold prices, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid uncertainty [3]. - Increased geopolitical risks, particularly involving Russia and NATO, as well as conflicts in the Middle East, have further supported the rise in gold prices [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Office predicts that gold prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching $3900 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and persistent high inflation [4].

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have reached new highs, with COMEX futures peaking at $3863.7 per ounce and London spot prices hitting $3834.120 per ounce as of September 29 [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly NATO's threats to Russia and military activities in Gaza, have intensified concerns over Middle Eastern conflicts, providing strong support for gold prices [2] Group 2: Financing and Investment in Gold Stocks - In September, five gold and jewelry stocks recorded net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Zijin Mining leading at 1.569 billion yuan, followed by Zhongjin Gold, Hunan Gold, Shandong Gold, and Yuguang Gold Lead [4] - Zijin Mining's stock price reached a historical high of 28.86 yuan per share, with a year-to-date increase of 93.06% [7] Group 3: Company Performance - Zijin Mining reported a 16% year-on-year increase in gold production to 41 tons in the first half of 2025, with corresponding revenue of 26.455 billion yuan, up 62.15% [7] - Among gold and jewelry stocks, Zijin Mining led in net profit for the first half of the year at 23.292 billion yuan, with Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold also exceeding 1 billion yuan in net profit [7][10] - Western Gold achieved a revenue of 5.03 billion yuan, a 69.01% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 154 million yuan, up 131.94%, attributed to rising gold prices and increased sales [8]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - Although the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October has decreased and the number of expected rate cuts in 2026 has been reduced from 3 to 2 due to the robust performance of multiple US economic and employment data and Fed Chairman Powell's statement on balancing employment and inflation, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries may support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1]. Summary by Relevant Data Gold Market - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: The closing price was 854.72 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.34 compared to the previous day and 9.56 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 270,430, with a decrease of 146 compared to the previous day and an increase of 39,583 compared to the previous week. The inventory (in ten grams) was 57,429 [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Gold T+D**: The closing price was 852.90 yuan/gram. The trading volume was 5,422, with a decrease of 2,880 compared to the previous day. The holding volume was 219,666, with a decrease of 3,600 compared to the previous day and 8,504 compared to the previous week [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,678.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of 9.30 compared to the previous day and 111.60 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 206,111, with a decrease of 48,786 compared to the previous day and 12,457 compared to the previous week. The inventory (in troy ounces) was 39,946,410.45 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,769.85 dollars/ounce, with a change of 39.10 compared to the previous day and 126.15 compared to the previous week. The SPDR Gold ETF holding volume was 1,005.72 tons, with an increase of 30.06 compared to the previous day and 8.87 compared to the previous week [1]. Silver Market - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 221.00 yuan/ten grams. The trading volume was 957,978, with an increase of 257,267 compared to the previous day and 168,324 compared to the previous week. The inventory (in ten grams) was 1,156,855 [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Silver T+D**: The closing price was 10,551 yuan/ten grams. The trading volume was 212,236, with an increase of 606,548 compared to the previous day and 91,584 compared to the previous week. The holding volume was 44,832, with a decrease of 139,222 compared to the previous day [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 46.37 dollars/ounce. The trading volume was 101,291, with an increase of 1,626 compared to the previous day and 43,663 compared to the previous week. The inventory (in troy ounces) was 530,344,533.33 [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 3.15 dollars/ounce. The iShares Silver ETF holding volume was 15,361.84 tons, with a decrease of 28.23 compared to the previous day [1]. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets showed various changes. For example, the ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 80.52, with a change of -1.53 compared to the previous day and -1.58 compared to the previous week [1]. - **Other Commodities**: INE crude oil was 0.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 68.82 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 65.19 dollars/barrel, Shanghai copper futures were 82,470 yuan/ton, and LME copper spot was 10,205 dollars/ton, etc. [1]. Stock Indices - **Major Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,828.5764, with a decrease of 25.20 compared to the previous day and -0.47 compared to the previous week. The S&P 500 was 6,643.7000, with an increase of 38.98 compared to the previous day and 11.74 compared to the previous week. Other indices such as the UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, etc., also showed different changes [1]. Important Information - **Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months. Trump's drug tariff is 15% and does not apply to trade agreement parties such as the EU and Japan [1]. - **US Government Situation**: On September 30, the US government's federal funds will be exhausted. The Senate will resume to review a temporary spending bill. The Republican members of the US House of Representatives have announced a temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown on October 1, but the bill does not include the healthcare policy required by the Democrats, leading to a stand - off between the two parties [1].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from a hawkish to a dovish stance, with Chairman Powell indicating that inflation is nearing target levels and monetary policy will gradually shift towards easing [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in November have surged to 92%, significantly lowering the holding cost of gold, which has led to gold prices breaking historical highs [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the breakdown of negotiations over Iran's nuclear issue have heightened global risk aversion, resulting in a single-day influx of over $5 billion into gold [2] Group 3: Weakening Dollar Index - The dollar index has fallen from a high of 105 to below 103, which has positively impacted gold prices, as historical data shows that a 1% drop in the dollar index correlates with an average 1.2% increase in gold prices [3] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally have increased gold purchases, with a report indicating that by 2025, purchases will exceed 1,200 tons, and China's central bank has been increasing its holdings for 10 consecutive months, raising gold reserves to 7.2% [4] Group 5: Rising Inflation Expectations - Despite the Federal Reserve's attempts to control inflation, rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions are pushing inflation expectations higher, increasing the demand for gold as a traditional hedge against inflation [5] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on a support level of $3,680 for gold, with a recommendation to increase the allocation to 15% of the asset portfolio for the medium to long term [6] Group 7: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold has confirmed a "flag breakout" on the weekly chart, closing at $3,727, indicating strong bullish momentum [7] - The key resistance level of $3,700 has turned into strong support, with the next target at $3,820 based on Fibonacci extension [8] Group 8: Domestic Gold Market Insights - Domestic demand for gold jewelry has decreased by 24%, while investment gold bars have surged by 25%, indicating a shift from consumption to preservation of value [10][11] - The price difference between domestic and international gold has reached a historical high, presenting arbitrage opportunities for professional investors [12] Group 9: U.S. Treasury Yield Inversion - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped below 4%, showing a strong negative correlation with gold prices, which reduces the holding cost of gold [14] - Bridgewater Associates has increased its holdings in gold ETFs from 15% to 25%, reflecting institutional concerns over stagflation risks [15] Group 10: Gold Mining and Recycling Trends - The average global gold mining cost has risen to $1,800, putting pressure on mining profits, suggesting a focus on low-cost leaders like Barrick Gold [17] - The volume of gold recycling has increased by 40% year-on-year, with a record 120 tons recycled in September [18] - The open interest in gold options has doubled, indicating a surge in market hedging demand [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction in the crude oil market is the mismatch between short - term geopolitical (Russia - Ukraine conflict, Yemen situation) driven bullish momentum and insufficient medium - to - long - term fundamental support (no supply - demand gap, weak physical goods). Geopolitics is the current focus, but fundamentals restrict price increases [2]. - In the short term, the contradiction focuses on "whether geopolitical risks can continue" and "how the market digests overbought conditions". In the medium - to - long term, the core game lies in "the extent of demand decline" and "the intensity of supply adjustment" [2]. - The market is expected to have a short - term rebound and a medium - term weak oscillation [6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The short - term core contradiction focuses on the continuation of geopolitical risks and the digestion of overbought conditions. The key variables are the spread of the Yemen situation to the Bab el - Mandeb Strait and the frequency of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities. The medium - to - long - term core contradiction returns to fundamentals. On the demand side, the risk of economic recession in Europe and the US suppresses oil consumption, and although Asian demand provides some support, it cannot offset global weakness. On the supply side, there is no supply gap as OPEC+ may adjust supply and US shale oil production is stable [2][4]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - The market is in a short - term rebound and medium - term weak oscillation. Suggested strategies include: in the month - spread strategy, go long on Brent2512 - 2602 and WTI2512 - 2602; in the domestic - foreign arbitrage strategy, go short on SC - Brent; in the crack spread, continue to hold short positions in RBOB gasoline - WTI and long positions in ICE diesel - Brent [6]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely to be bullish**: Geopolitical risks have increased, injecting a premium; EIA inventory has a low increase, strengthening supply - demand support; sanctions and conflicts have intensified supply concerns [7]. - **Likely to be bearish**: The Middle - East physical market has weakened; global demand expectations have been continuously revised down; there is still room for supply - side flexibility [10]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Track the dynamics of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, especially the escalation of US - Houthi armed conflicts, the impact of Israeli military air - strikes on Sanaa, and the safety of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait. Also, be vigilant about the progress of the US - Iran talks. - Monitor the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict in the energy dimension, including the frequency of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the implementation of Russia's refined - oil export ban [11]. Chapter 3: Disk Analysis 3.1 Volume, Price, and Fund Analysis - **Trend analysis**: This week, crude oil showed a geopolitically - driven oscillating upward trend, with Brent crude breaking through the September high. The trend is centered around the game between geopolitics and fundamentals [12]. - **Domestic market**: The short - term trend is oscillating upward. Technical indicators show short - term bullish momentum, but there is a risk of technical correction. The WTI and Brent crude in the international market also show upward trends, but attention should be paid to support and resistance levels [14][15]. - **Fund and position analysis**: Information on domestic and international crude oil futures positions and changes is provided [15][16]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Month - spread Tracking - Brent and WTI crude oil month - spreads maintain a slight Backwardation structure, indicating short - term supply tightness or stable demand. Dubai and domestic SC crude oil month - spreads are weak, reflecting the relatively weak domestic market [26]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - The spread between SC and Brent crude oil has rapidly narrowed, reflecting the decline of international oil prices and the relatively loose domestic supply - demand situation [31]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - The crude oil crack spread shows a clear differentiation of "strong diesel, weak gasoline". Diesel spreads may remain high in the short term, while gasoline spreads are difficult to improve. This differentiation is due to energy transformation and geopolitical games [36]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - side Tracking - Information on US and Chinese refinery crude input, operating rates, and US crude oil production and rig numbers is provided [57][60]. 5.2 Demand - side Tracking - Data on US and Chinese refinery operating rates are presented [57]. 5.3 Inventory - side Tracking - As of September 19, data on US commercial crude oil, strategic petroleum, and Cushing region inventories are given [62]. 5.4 Balance Sheet Tracking - EIA9 monthly report shows that global oil demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025, supply is rising, refinery throughput has fluctuations, and inventory has different trends. The market is affected by geopolitical concerns and the prospect of supply surplus [64][65][66].