1月12日早盘，伦敦现货黄金快速冲高，盘中涨幅超过1%。上周末地缘事件再起波澜，避险情绪升温， 短期聚焦伊朗局势以及美对格陵兰岛的军事计划。宏观方面，上周五美12月就业数据公布，喜忧参半， 本周关注美国12月CPI与PPI数据，或将影响美联储降息路径，另外美国政府资金又将耗尽，月底再度停 摆风险上升。海外不确定性事件或使黄金热度不减。美联储1月降息概率仍偏低，但市场此前概率就维 持在低位，对黄金影响下降；但2026年首月地缘政治成为短期焦点，美委冲突成为开端，而美政府在获 取格陵兰方面的挑衅，以及在关注伊朗局势方面，再次引起全球投资者对地缘政治频繁冲突的不安，黄 金热度难以下降。（光大期货） 来源：滚动播报 ...

从业资格：F3046227 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月12日早盘，伦敦现货黄金快速冲高，盘中涨幅超过1%。上周末地缘事件再起波澜，避险情绪升温， 短期聚焦伊朗局势以及美对格陵兰岛的军事计划。宏观方面，上周五美12月就业数据公布，喜忧参半， 本周关注美国12月CPI与PPI数据，或将影响美联储降息路径，另外美国政府资金又将耗尽，月底再度停 摆风险上升。海外不确定性事件或使黄金热度不减。 美国2025年12月季调后非农就业人口增加5万人，低于预期值6万人和前值6.4万人；失业率4.4%，预期 4.5%，前值4.6%。此外，美国10月份非农新增就业人数从-10.5万人修正至-17.3万人；11月份非农新增 就业人数从6.4万人修正至5.6万人。失业率的下降暂时缓解了对劳动力市场恶化的最严重担忧。另外， 美联储的报告显示，消费者预计未来一年物价将上涨3.4%，高于11月的3.2%。美联储内部官员继续存 在较大分歧，一部分官员更担忧通胀问题，另一部分则认为失业率上升才是更大的风险，导致月底的美 联储会议降息预期仍不明朗。 地缘政治方面，美国白宫称开始全球兜售委内瑞拉石油，美能 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【高盛调整美联储降息预期】1月12日，高盛预计，美联储将于今年6月和9月各降息25个基点。 此前， 高盛预测美联储今年3月和6月降息。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a strong upward trend in gold prices, with spot gold and futures both surpassing $4600, reaching a historical high [1] - China's gold reserves have increased for the 14th consecutive month, now totaling approximately 2306.323 tons, reflecting a growing trend in gold accumulation [2] - The World Gold Council forecasts a potential increase in gold prices by 15% to 30% in 2026, driven primarily by investment demand, particularly through gold ETFs, despite weak demand from jewelry and technology sectors [2] Group 2 - The outlook for the U.S. economy under monetary easing is crucial for the performance of precious metals, with expectations of fluctuating gold and silver prices as markets adjust to monetary policy and geopolitical risks [3] - Citic Securities projects a high certainty of gold price increases, driven by expectations of dual monetary and fiscal easing in the U.S. and persistent stagflation pressures, with a model predicting gold prices could exceed $5100 per ounce by the end of 2026 [3]

美联储主席鲍威尔稍早前发布视频声明证实，特朗普政府因他2025年6月对美国国会参议院所作证词， 威胁对他提起刑事指控，并已于当地时间1月9日向美联储发出传票。鲍威尔认为这是"借口"，目的是就 美联储降息问题进一步向他施压。 美国总统特朗普当地时间1月11日晚接受媒体采访时否认与美国司法部向美国联邦储备委员会发出传票 有关。他表示，"我对此一无所知"。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][34] 3. Summary by Directory (1) Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2602 of Shanghai copper futures was mainly in an oscillating market, ranging from around 100,050 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 105,500 yuan/ton [9] (2) Macroeconomic Aspect - Fed Governor Milan expects a rate cut of about 150 basis points in 2026, which is expected to create about one million jobs without triggering inflation. He believes that US policy is still substantially above the neutral level. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January is 11.6%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 88.4%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 40.3%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 55.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.3% [4][12][33] (3) Supply and Demand Situation - **China's copper smelting fees at the bottom**: As of January 8, 2026, China's copper smelter rough smelting fee was - 44.96 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.58 US cents/pound. As of November 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [15] - **Decline in power grid construction investment growth rate**: As of November 2025, the power grid construction investment was 560.39 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.93%, with a slowdown in growth rate. From a seasonal perspective, the current investment is at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [21] (4) Inventory Situation - **Global visible inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 180,543 tons, an increase of 35,201 tons from the previous week. As of January 7, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 143,225 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 18.1% [24] - **Domestic invisible market inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 101,800 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 43,000 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 75,100 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1,000 tons from the previous week [24]

美联储动态——①巴尔金：失业率下降值得欢迎。②博斯蒂克：需要"集中精力"降低通胀。③美联储任 命地区银行董事会主席和副主席。④摩根士丹利预计，美联储将在6月和9月各降息25个基点。⑤花旗预 计美联储将在3月、7月和9月各降息25个基点。 1月12日 资讯分享 上周五，因美国12月非农新增就业人口低于预期，以及川普引发地缘政治不确定性，现货黄金重回4500 美元上方，最终收涨0.70%，报4509.02美元/盎司；现货白银最终收涨3.81%，报79.90美元/盎司。 因伊朗抗议活动加剧及俄乌局势升级引发供应担忧，国际油价上涨2%。WTI原油盘中曾跌超1%，最终 收涨0.38%，报58.77美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收涨0.51%，报63.01美元/桶。 非农报告—①美国12月季调后非农就业人口增加5万人，美国10月和11月非农就业人数合计下修7.6万 人，12月失业率录得4.4%；2025年，非农就业人数增加了58.4万人。②非农公布后，互换市场认为美联 储1月降息概率为零。③白宫证实，总统的社交媒体账户无意中泄露了汇总就业数据，正在审查有关经 济数据发布的规程。 川普威胁古巴若不尽快"达成协议"，将面临"零石油 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and September this year, revising its previous forecast of rate cuts in March and June [1] Group 1 - The anticipated rate cuts are now scheduled for mid-year rather than earlier in the year [1] - The adjustment in the forecast reflects changing economic conditions and monetary policy outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international oil prices has created a stark contrast between rising global costs and the anticipated domestic price drop, reflecting the complexities of current economic conditions and consumer sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On January 10, WTI crude oil futures closed at $59.12 per barrel, up 2.35%, while Brent crude rose 2.18% to $63.34 per barrel [3]. - The unexpected increase in oil prices is attributed to a combination of weak U.S. non-farm employment growth and a paradoxical drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [3][4]. - The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between short-term pessimism and long-term optimism regarding interest rate cuts, which is influencing oil price stability [4]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Prices - The next round of domestic oil price adjustments is expected to decrease by 80 yuan per ton, translating to a potential drop of 5-7 cents per liter [6]. - Current fuel prices across various regions in China show significant variation, with 92 gasoline prices ranging from 6.53 to 7.82 yuan per liter [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Context - The economic landscape is characterized by uncertainty, with questions surrounding whether inflationary pressures will lead to further increases in energy prices or if underlying economic weakness will negatively impact commodity performance [8]. - The oil price serves as a critical indicator of economic health, reflecting either recovery or stagnation, as consumers and investors navigate a landscape of unpredictability [8].

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.882, while spot gold opened at $4509.80 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $4578.39 per ounce. Gold T+D is trading around 1022.00 CNY per gram, and the Shanghai gold main contract is at 1025.06 CNY per gram [1][1]. - On the previous trading day, the US dollar index rose by 0.26% to 99.130, and spot gold increased by 0.71% to $4509.13 per ounce. Other precious metals saw mixed results, with spot silver rising by 3.89% to $79.95 per ounce, platinum decreasing by 0.57% to $2268.50 per ounce, and palladium increasing by 1.35% to $1818.27 per ounce [1][1]. Inventory Data - As of January 9, COMEX gold inventory stands at 1129.43 tons, a decrease of 2.34 tons from the previous trading day. COMEX silver inventory is at 13677.47 tons, down by 85.19 tons [2][2]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings are at 1064.56 tons, a reduction of 2.57 tons from the previous day, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 93.05 tons to 16308.48 tons [2][2]. Economic Indicators - In December, the US non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, with revisions in October and November showing a total downward adjustment of 76,000 jobs. The unemployment rate for December is recorded at 4.4% [4][4]. - Following the non-farm payroll report, the swap market indicates a zero probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January [4][4]. Geopolitical Developments - Tensions with Iran are escalating, with Iranian officials warning that US bases and troops could become "legitimate targets" if provoked. President Trump has threatened to intervene in Iran, considering various options for action [5][5]. - In Venezuela, Trump has canceled plans for a second wave of attacks and is pressuring major oil companies to invest $100 billion in the country, with Venezuela offering 30 million barrels of oil to the US [5][5].