Core Viewpoint - The confirmation hearing for Stephen Miran's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board highlighted concerns about the independence of the Fed and Miran's potential alignment with President Trump's economic policies [2][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Miran emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, stating it is "crucial" for the U.S. economy [4][6]. - During the hearing, Miran denied being a "puppet" of Trump and asserted that he would make decisions based on economic data and personal analysis if confirmed [4][5]. - Concerns were raised by Democratic senators about Miran's past proposals that could undermine the Fed's independence, including giving the president more power to dismiss Fed officials [6][12]. Group 2: Political Neutrality and Commitments - Republican senators generally supported Miran, seeking commitments from him to maintain political neutrality [3][8]. - Miran stated that no one asked him to commit to supporting interest rate cuts as a condition of his nomination [3][4]. - He faced skepticism from Democrats, particularly regarding his ability to remain independent while serving as a White House economic advisor [6][10]. Group 3: Economic Policy and Data Integrity - Miran criticized the Fed's focus on climate change as a sign of political influence and expressed a desire to resist any actions that exceed the Fed's core responsibilities [5][7]. - He raised concerns about the quality of employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), suggesting it has deteriorated over time [15][17]. - Miran's views on tariffs indicated that he does not believe they have significantly impacted inflation, although he acknowledged potential short-term price fluctuations [18][20]. Group 4: Nomination Process and Market Expectations - The White House is actively lobbying Republican senators to expedite Miran's confirmation before the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 [22][23]. - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with Miran's potential vote being significant in the decision-making process [23].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 4, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market had a collective pullback. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to 3765.88, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.83% to 12118.70, and the ChiNext Index declined 4.25% to 2776.25. The trading volume reached 2544.3 billion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4365.21, down 94.62 [1][2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The coke weighted index closed at 1585.0, down 21.9. The coking coal weighted index closed at 1093.5 yuan, down 21.7 [3][4]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: Affected by the expected sufficient supply in major producing countries, the US sugar oscillated lower on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was pressured by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices, and continued to fall at night [5]. - **Rubber**: Shanghai rubber had a narrow - range fluctuation. Natural rubber was strong while 20 - rubber was weak. Supported by the strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher at night. Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 999,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures closed higher on September 4. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to be 6.75 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated, with the M2601 contract closing at 3048 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.59% [6]. - **Live Hogs**: The live hog futures price oscillated weakly, with the LH2511 contract closing at 13365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37%. In September, the market supply is still under pressure, but the consumption is seasonally picking up [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures oscillated slightly. The main contract P2601 closed at 9390, up 0.23%. Malaysia's palm oil production in August is estimated to increase by 2.07% to 1.85 million tons [8]. - **Shanghai Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 79770 yuan/ton. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the cost supports the price. The domestic demand is expected to recover, but the export demand may decline [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2601 contract rose 1.67% to 791.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, and the demand is slightly weak, but the terminal demand in the peak season provides support [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2510 contract fell 2.14% to 3468 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the short - term price will oscillate [10]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13960 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 167 lots [10]. - **Log**: The 2511 log contract opened at 797, closed at 797, with an increase of 317 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [10][12]. - **Steel**: The rb2601 contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3313 yuan/ton. The demand for steel is unstable, and the short - term price will fluctuate slightly [12]. - **Alumina**: The ao2601 contract closed at 2980 yuan/ton. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the cost support is weakening [13]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The al2510 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. The high - level oscillation of the main contract may continue, and the market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression" [13]. 2. Core Views - The A - share market had a significant pullback on September 4, with increased trading volume [1]. - The prices of coke and coking coal are under pressure. The coking coal inventory is increasing, and the coke price increase is not implemented while some areas propose price cuts [5]. - The sugar market is affected by the expected sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5]. - The rubber market is supported by the supply - side situation in Southeast Asia [6]. - The soybean meal price oscillates due to sufficient domestic supply and potential supply from South America [6][7]. - The live hog market has supply pressure in the short term, but the consumption is seasonally improving [7]. - The palm oil market shows a slight upward trend, and the production in Malaysia is estimated to increase [8]. - The Shanghai copper price is affected by supply, cost, demand, and external factors such as US economic data [9]. - The iron ore price oscillates due to the change in supply - demand relationship and the support from the peak - season demand [9]. - The asphalt price oscillates with the decline of capacity utilization rate and general terminal demand [10]. - The log market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. - The steel price has limited fluctuations, and the demand recovery will determine the future trend [12]. - The alumina price is under pressure due to increased supply and weakened cost support [13]. - The Shanghai aluminum price is in a balanced state between macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression [13]. 3. Factors Affecting Different Commodities Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: The eighth - round price increase is not implemented, and some areas propose the first - round price cut. The iron water production is 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 refined coal is 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The power consumption in China accounts for 30% of the terminal energy consumption, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. The mine inventory is increasing, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 3 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected sufficient supply in major producing countries and the decline of US sugar and spot prices affect the price of Zhengzhou sugar [5]. Rubber - The strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia support the price of Shanghai rubber [6]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean harvest is approaching, and Brazil's exports are expected to increase. In the domestic market, the sufficient supply of imported soybeans, the potential supply from South America, and the increase of soybean meal inventory affect the price [6][7]. Live Hogs - The supply is under pressure in September, but the consumption is seasonally picking up due to the start of the school term [7]. Palm Oil - The production increase in Malaysia affects the price of palm oil [8]. Shanghai Copper - **Supply**: The domestic copper concentrate port inventory is low, and the refined copper production is expected to decline slightly. - **Cost**: The TC fee is negative, and the raw material price increase supports the copper price. - **Demand**: The export demand may decline due to US tariffs, but the domestic demand is expected to recover. - **External Factor**: The US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the copper price [9]. Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded to the annual high, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron water production has decreased slightly, but the peak - season demand provides support [9]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the terminal demand is general [10]. Log - The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. Steel - The demand for steel is unstable during the off - peak to peak - season transition. The cost changes little, and the production may remain high [12]. Alumina - The supply is increasing due to the resumption of production lines and the stable output of new capacity. The cost support is weakening due to the decline of bauxite price [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - The market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression", and the US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the market sentiment [13].

Core Points - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, coinciding with President Trump's legal team providing new arguments for her dismissal [1][2] - Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Miran, appeared at a Senate confirmation hearing, emphasizing his commitment to maintaining monetary policy independence [4] Group 1: Legal and Investigative Developments - Trump's legal team argues that Cook's claims of being dismissed due to policy disagreements lack factual support, asserting that such disagreements do not justify her removal [2] - The DOJ's investigation focuses on potential false statements made by Cook in her mortgage application, with subpoenas issued to banks and lenders for her loan records [3] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Analysts express ongoing market concerns regarding the stability of the Federal Reserve's governance structure, with rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields reflecting investor anxiety [6] - The outcome of Cook's case could fundamentally impact the legal protections of Federal Reserve independence, with potential long-term risks if the court affirms presidential dismissal powers [6]

Core Points - The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized as crucial for the economy, with Stephen Miran asserting that he was not pressured to support interest rate cuts during his confirmation hearing [1][2][3] - Miran plans to temporarily step down from his role as a senior economic advisor to Trump if confirmed as a Fed governor, which raises concerns about the potential conflict of interest and the independence of the Fed [4][5][6] - Miran has faced scrutiny regarding his past proposals that could increase presidential power over the Fed, including the ability to dismiss Fed officials, which he claims is part of a broader system of checks and balances [6][10] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Independence - Miran stated that the independence of the Federal Reserve is "vital" for the U.S. economy and that he agrees with the need for the Fed to remain independent from political influence [2][3] - He acknowledged that while Trump selected him based on his policy views, he would act independently if confirmed [2][6] Confirmation Hearing Dynamics - Concerns were raised by Senate Banking Committee members about Miran's ability to maintain the Fed's independence, especially given his close ties to the Trump administration [1][5] - Miran's temporary leave from his White House role during his tenure as a Fed governor was criticized as potentially undermining the Fed's independence [5][6] Regulatory and Economic Policy Views - Miran expressed the need for a comprehensive review of regulatory costs and benefits, particularly regarding capital requirements under Basel III [3] - He criticized the Fed's focus on climate change as a sign of political influence and stated he would resist any actions that exceed the Fed's core responsibilities [3][6] Employment Data and Economic Impact - Miran commented on the quality of employment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), suggesting it has deteriorated over time, although he did not confirm any allegations of data manipulation [7][8] - He maintained that tariffs have not significantly impacted inflation, despite concerns raised by other senators [9] Interest Rate Policy and Market Reactions - Miran predicted that the bond market would not resist potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, indicating a belief in the market's adaptability to changes in monetary policy [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that overseas long-term bond yields are experiencing significant increases, with Japan, the UK, and the US seeing record highs in their long-term bond yields [1][2][3] - In the US, the expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts is primarily affecting short-term rates, while long-term rates are rising due to concerns about persistent inflation and potential second-round inflation risks [1][2] - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield reached 3.28%, the highest on record, while the UK’s 30-year bond yield climbed to 5.75%, the highest since 1998 [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns about fiscal sustainability are rising in other economies, particularly in Japan and the UK, where persistent inflation and large fiscal deficits are leading to expectations of increased taxation or spending cuts [2][3] - Japan's central bank is now expected to raise interest rates earlier than previously anticipated, with market expectations shifting from April to January or March [2] - The UK’s inflation rate reached 3.8% in July, raising doubts about the Bank of England's ability to cut rates this year [2] Group 3 - Seasonal factors are contributing to poor performance in long-term bonds, with historical data showing that September is typically a weak month for long-term bonds [3] - The current environment is characterized by a peak in corporate bond issuance, which is exacerbating supply-demand mismatches in the bond market [3] - Investment-grade dollar bond premiums are at near-low levels, prompting increased corporate bond issuance, with over $90 billion issued recently [3] Group 4 - The rising yields on overseas long-term bonds may enhance their attractiveness relative to equities, potentially leading to increased allocations from institutional investors [4] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the "stagflation" environment in developed economies are creating downward pressure on both bonds and currencies, while gold may benefit in this context [4] - The US 30-year bond yield remains relatively stable, but yields in Japan and the UK continue to rise, indicating potential for further increases [4]

Market Performance - On September 4, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.77%, the S&P 500 up 0.83%, and the Nasdaq up 0.98% [2] - Amazon rose over 4%, while Goldman Sachs increased by more than 2% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.11%, with individual stocks like Bitdeer down over 9%, Brainstorm down more than 7%, BeiGene down over 5%, Global Data down more than 4%, and Alibaba down over 4% [4] Gold Market - In the morning, spot gold opened slightly lower, with COMEX gold down nearly 0.3% [6] U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement - President Trump signed an executive order to officially implement the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which includes a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese imports to the U.S. [8][9] - Japan will provide significant market access for U.S. manufacturers in key sectors, including a 75% increase in U.S. rice purchases and a total of $8 billion annually in U.S. agricultural products [9] - Japan will also allow the sale of U.S.-made passenger cars without additional testing and will purchase U.S. commercial aircraft and defense equipment, committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. [9] Federal Reserve Updates - Federal Reserve nominee Stephen Moore urged President Trump to consider replacing all Fed governors, emphasizing the importance of Fed independence [11] - Fed officials indicated that a gradual rate cut is appropriate, with a 99.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 55.3% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by October [11]

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by the U.S. Department of Justice is seen as part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to exert pressure on the Federal Reserve and potentially undermine its independence [2][3][5]. Group 1: Investigation and Allegations - The DOJ is investigating Cook for allegedly providing false information on mortgage applications related to her properties in Michigan and Atlanta [2][3]. - Bill Pulte, appointed by Trump, accused Cook of mortgage fraud, claiming she misled banks to obtain better loan terms typically reserved for primary residences [3][5]. - Cook has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, asserting that the reasons for her potential dismissal are fabricated and lack legal basis [3][5]. Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - The controversy surrounding Cook's position is escalating into a critical point regarding Trump's attempts to gain control over the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a majority of Trump-appointed members on the board [6][8]. - Economists express concern that Trump's actions may undermine the checks and balances within the U.S. system, questioning the ongoing independence of the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - A public letter signed by approximately 600 economists, including Nobel laureates, emphasizes the high threshold for removing a Federal Reserve governor and warns against actions that could weaken the central bank's independence [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Goldman Sachs warns that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is compromised, a small shift of investor holdings from U.S. Treasuries to gold could drive gold prices to unprecedented levels, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce under extreme scenarios [3].

斯蒂芬・米兰表示，若获得确认出任美联储理事会空缺席位，他将以白宫经济顾问委员会主席的身份休 无薪假。 周四，在参议院银行委员会的确认听证会上，特朗普总统提名的美联储理事候选人米兰表示，在担任美 联储理事期间（任期至2026年1月31日），他不会完全辞去白宫的职务。他将接替阿德里亚娜・库格 勒，库格勒于8月初意外辞职。 米兰的任命正值外界猜测特朗普将寻求提名一位 "影子主席" 并在美联储获得足够影响力之际，这引发 了人们对美联储独立性的担忧。米兰在担任美联储理事的同时保留白宫职位，可能会进一步加剧这些担 忧。 米兰在听证会上表示："律师已告知我，合法的做法是从经济顾问委员会休无薪假，停止相关工作。如 果律师有其他建议，我会遵守法律并听从律师的意见。" 他补充道："我被提名的任期为四个半月。如果我被提名并确认担任更长的任期，而不仅仅是几个月， 我绝对会辞职。" 特朗普一直力推大幅降息，批评现任美联储主席鲍威尔迟迟不采取行动。在听证会上，米兰多次承诺维 护美联储的独立性，并强调政府中没有人要求他承诺放宽货币政策。 美联储下次政策会议将于9月16日至17日举行。 责任编辑：栎树 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is underway, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expected to interview 11 candidates nominated by the Trump administration, which may reflect an unusual level of transparency and potential political pressure on the Fed [2][3][5]. Candidate Details - Among the 11 candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, three are considered strong contenders: former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, Trump economic advisor Kevin Hassett, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Other candidates include Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Larry Lindsey, James Bullard, Marc Sumerlin, Rick Rieder, and David Zervos [4]. Importance of the Federal Reserve Chair Selection - The selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is crucial as the Fed is a key economic policy-making institution in the U.S., influencing interest rates and, consequently, the economic well-being of individuals and businesses [7]. The confirmation process may face heightened partisan conflict due to current political polarization [7].

Core Points - The U.S. Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook regarding potential false information submitted in mortgage applications [1][3] - The investigation focuses on properties in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and Atlanta, Georgia, with grand jury subpoenas issued in both states [1] - Cook was appointed by President Biden in May 2022 and is the first Black woman to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor, with her term set to last until 2038 [1] - Cook has resisted pressure to lower interest rates from former President Trump, indicating a stance of caution [1] - Trump's recent actions, including the announcement of Cook's dismissal, have raised concerns about the politicization of the Federal Reserve [1][4] Investigation Details - Allegations against Cook include submitting false bank documents and property records to obtain more favorable loan conditions [3] - Trump's claims suggest Cook's actions may constitute fraud and disqualify her from serving on the Federal Reserve Board [3] - Cook's legal representative argues that any discrepancies in mortgage documentation could be attributed to "unintentional clerical errors" rather than intentional deceit [3] Legal and Institutional Context - The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 stipulates that a governor can only be dismissed for "just cause," which typically involves misconduct in office [3] - Legal experts suggest that Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook does not meet procedural requirements, as the allegations pertain to her private life prior to her appointment [3] - This situation marks the first instance in over a century where a president has attempted to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor, highlighting a significant escalation in tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve [4] Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - The ongoing conflict is perceived as an erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, with implications for monetary policy decision-making [4] - A candidate nominated by Trump, who is set to face Senate confirmation, has pledged to uphold the independence of the Federal Reserve during his hearings [4]