Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategies, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. It evaluates market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on different market segments. Summary by Catalog 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - **News**: Trump's potential removal of Fed governors may affect the Fed's independence, and the US housing price growth in June 2023 was the slowest since 2023 [11][12]. - **Review**: Trump's actions pose a challenge to the Fed's independence, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index [13]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The US dollar index faces downward pressure [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: The US consumer confidence index in August fell slightly to 97.4, and the Fed responded to Trump's attempt to fire a governor [15][16]. - **Review**: If Trump successfully fires the governor and nominates a dovish official, market expectations of interest - rate cuts will rise, and US stocks may perform well [18]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Interest - rate cut trading continues to support market risk appetite, and US stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly [19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: The State Council promotes high - quality development of service trade, and China will implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" action [20][21]. - **Review**: The A - share market sentiment has cooled slightly, but there is still upward momentum from the perspective of sentiment and capital [21]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Hold long positions in stock index futures [22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: The 17th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held from September 8th to 12th, and the central bank conducted a 405.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation [23][24]. - **Review**: The bond market is mainly in a volatile state, and it is difficult to have a sustainable upward trend without special circumstances [26]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious with unilateral long positions; consider using long bond positions to hedge potential stock price corrections [26]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - **News**: Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in August, the US may exempt tariffs on Indonesian palm oil, and Malaysia seeks tax exemption for palm oil raw materials [27][28]. - **Review**: The oil market is in a weak and volatile state, and the impact of production changes is not significant [29]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The oil market is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. 2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of metallurgical coke in Lvliang is strong, and some coking enterprises have proposed an 8th - round price increase [31]. - **Review**: The coking coal futures may adjust in the short term, but there is strong support below [32]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The futures price has short - term adjustment pressure, but strong support after adjustment [33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - **News**: Pakistan initially bought 30,000 tons of sugar, India urged the sugar industry to reach a consensus on export quotas, and Brazil's sugar exports in August increased slightly [34][35][36]. - **Review**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fell due to factors such as approaching delivery and weak market sentiment [36]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 1 - month contract after a correction, with a target price of around 5,500 yuan/ton [37]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: The daily output of key steel enterprises in mid - August increased, and the national construction machinery start - up rate in July was 44.43% [38][39]. - **Review**: Steel prices continued to fluctuate downward, and the market sentiment was slightly weak [39]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices [40]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - **News**: Aonong Bio's net profit in the first half of 2025 was 361 million yuan [41]. - **Review**: Near - month pig futures have limited rebound space, and there is a safety margin for the reverse spread structure [41]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Hold a short - term volatile view on the single - side, and pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [41]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - **News**: The growth of red dates in Xinjiang is normal, and the futures price of the main contract is slightly up [42]. - **Review**: The supply and demand of red dates are weak, and there is uncertainty in production [43]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on weather and research results [43]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - **News**: Corn starch continues to be weak in both production and sales areas [44]. - **Review**: The spot price of starch is weak, and the CS11 - C11 spread is under pressure [44]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of widening the spread [44]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - **News**: The growth of new - season corn in Henan is basically normal, with some local drought [45]. - **Review**: Corn futures fluctuate around 2,150 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to new - crop production [46]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Hold short positions and 11 - 3 reverse spreads, and pay attention to 11 - 1 reverse spreads if the spread strengthens [46]. 2.9 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - **News**: The price of steam coal in Beigang was stable on August 26 [47]. - **Review**: The seasonal pressure on coal prices is increasing, and prices are expected to be weak [48]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Coal prices are expected to remain seasonally weak [48]. 2.10 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - **News**: The scale of the air - conditioning market from January to July reached 172 billion yuan [49]. - **Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak and volatile state, and the impact of short - term factors on iron ore is limited [49]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Iron ore prices are expected to continue weak and volatile with limited decline [49]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: Tibet Summit's metal production increased significantly in the first half of the year, and the US may add lead to the key minerals list [50][51]. - **Review**: Lead prices fluctuated upward, but there are concerns about supply and demand [51]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [53]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: Tibet Summit's metal production increased significantly in the first half of the year [54]. - **Review**: Zinc prices may fluctuate due to the influence of macro and fundamental factors [55]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading, and pay attention to mid - line positive spread opportunities [55]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - **News**: Tongwei sold 161,300 tons of polysilicon in the first half of the year, and there were new developments in photovoltaic project component procurement [56][57]. - **Review**: The price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but there are concerns about over - supply [58]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a bullish view on dips for single - side trading, and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity at around - 2,000 yuan/ton [59]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - **News**: The US may add industrial silicon to the key minerals list [60]. - **Review**: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are weakening, but the price may be affected by other factors [61]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the production resumption of large factories and trade within the range of 8,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton [61][62]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: Galan plans to start production of a lithium project in Argentina in the first half of 2026 [63]. - **Review**: The short - term inventory reduction may support the price, but there is supply uncertainty [64]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips and positive spreads [64]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - **News**: Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund signed a framework agreement with GEM to develop a green nickel processing center [65]. - **Review**: Nickel prices may be affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand [66]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to short - term trading opportunities and mid - line short - selling opportunities [67]. 2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: The US may add copper to the key minerals list, and there are developments in copper mining projects [68][69][70]. - **Review**: Copper prices are in a high - level volatile state, and the short - term upward trend is not obvious [71]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading and a wait - and - see strategy for spreads [71]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - **News**: API crude oil and refined product inventories decreased [72]. - **Review**: Oil prices are in a range - bound state, waiting for new drivers [72]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Maintain range - bound trading and wait for new drivers [73]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - **News**: The closing price of CEA on August 26 was 69.69 yuan/ton [73]. - **Review**: The carbon market price is in a narrow - range volatile state [73]. - **Investment Suggestion**: CEA prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [74]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong was stable on August 26 [75]. - **Review**: The price of caustic soda is expected to remain high, but the upward space is limited [77]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious when chasing high prices [77]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - **News**: The price of imported wood pulp showed mixed trends [78]. - **Review**: The fundamentals of pulp are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [78]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The pulp market is expected to fluctuate [79]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The price of PVC powder decreased slightly [80]. - **Review**: The fundamentals of PVC are weak, but the price is expected to fluctuate [80]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The PVC market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [80]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - **News**: The export price of bottle chips was partially raised [81]. - **Review**: The inventory of bottle chips is decreasing, but attention should be paid to new capacity [83]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the impact of new capacity on processing fees [83]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - **News**: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China will be under maintenance [84]. - **Review**: The short - term supply - demand pattern of PTA has improved, and the price is expected to be strong [84]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term long - on - dips strategy [85]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - **News**: A 500,000 - ton/year styrene plant in Shandong is under maintenance [86]. - **Review**: The situation of styrene in September has improved marginally, but there may be pressure in the fourth quarter [87]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to policy variables at home and abroad [87]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - **News**: The production of a 5 - million - ton/year soda ash plant in Inner Mongolia is reduced [88]. - **Review**: The price of soda ash is weak, and the market sentiment is not strong [88]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [88]. 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - **News**: The price of float glass in Shahe was stable on August 26 [89]. - **Review**: The glass market is in a volatile state, and the demand improvement is limited [89]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious with single - side trading and focus on spread trading [90]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - **News**: Premier Alliance adjusted its shipping routes [91]. - **Review**: The spot freight rate is weak, and the supply - demand situation is not optimistic [92]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The 10 - month contract will test the support level of 1,300 yuan/FEU [92].

据华尔街经济学家和分析师称，美国总统特朗普史无前例地试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook），这一事件很可能最终交由美国最高法院（SCOTUS）裁决。 马库斯称，短期内，库克将申请针对特朗普行动的禁令，哥伦比亚特区联邦地区法院很可能批准这一请 求。这将维持美联储现状，直至最高法院作出裁决。 特朗普的掌控美联储之路 TD Cowen政策分析师贾勒特·塞伯格（Jaret Seiberg）周二表示，如果特朗普成功在年底前迫使库克离 职，他将在明年1月美联储投票选举地区联储主席前，逐步获得理事会多数席位。 特朗普提名的库克继任者将与美联储副主席米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）、理事克里斯·沃勒 （Chris Waller）——以及预计将填补阿德里亚娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）本月辞职后空缺的提名人斯 蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）——组成新阵容。 "总统的人可能会否决地区联储主席的人选，转而支持支持低利率的候选人。"塞伯格称，"这将面临障 碍，但一旦成功，特朗普将对联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）和利率政策拥有更大影响力。" 特朗普于当地时间周一晚间宣称，以"正当理由"立 ...

如果库克提起诉讼，该案可能最终由美国最高法院裁定。 根据1913年《联邦储备法》，总统只能在 "有正当理由"（for cause） 的情况下解雇联邦储备理事。这通常被理解为理事存在渎 职或严重失职行为。在特朗普之前，这一权力从未被动用，历届政府均避免挑战美联储独立性。 上周，特朗普任命的联邦住房金融局（FHFA）局长威廉·普尔特首先对库克的房贷提出质疑，并将此事移交司法部长帕姆·邦迪调查。 普尔特指出，库克在密歇根州和佐治亚州的房产文件上均签署为"主要居所"，目的是"可能获得更低利率和更优惠的贷款条件"。 当地时间周二（8月26日），美联储理事丽莎·库克的律师表示，库克将提起诉讼，以阻止美国总统特朗普将其解职。这意味着白宫试图影 响美国货币政策的行动，可能引发一场旷日持久的法律战。 就在一天前，特朗普宣布将解雇库克，理由是其在2021年办理房贷时存在"欺骗性及潜在的犯罪行为"。 库克回应称，总统无权解雇美联储 理事，并誓言继续履职。 库克的律师、华盛顿知名律师阿贝·洛厄尔（Abbe Lowell）在声明中称："特朗普总统无权解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克。他试图仅凭一封转 介信解雇她，既没有事实依据，也没有法律依据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, suggesting it is part of a power struggle to control monetary policy, potentially sacrificing the Fed's independence [1][5]. Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - Trump's firing of Cook is seen as a calculated move to assert control over the Federal Reserve, which may undermine its independence [1]. - Cook plans to sue Trump over her dismissal, indicating a significant legal battle ahead that could set a precedent [1][3]. - The dismissal is framed as a "power grab," with prior actions by Bill Pulte, the head of the FHFA, laying the groundwork for Cook's removal [1]. Group 2: Legal and Institutional Implications - The article questions whether the President has the authority to dismiss a Federal Reserve Governor at will, highlighting the ambiguity in federal law regarding "cause" for dismissal [3][4]. - If Trump succeeds in this legal battle, it could lead to a precedent where he can dismiss other board members, effectively controlling the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [5][6]. - Historical examples are cited, such as the inflation crises in Turkey and Argentina, to illustrate the dangers of politicizing the Federal Reserve [6]. Group 3: Future Risks and Consequences - The article warns that Trump's actions, driven by personal political interests, could lead to a loss of the Fed's independence, with long-term negative consequences for the country [5][6]. - It suggests that Trump could have pursued changes through normal channels, such as nominating new board members, rather than instigating a legal conflict [6]. - The conclusion emphasizes that if Trump gains control over the Fed, he and the Republican Party will bear responsibility for any resulting economic consequences, including potential inflation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, as it is the first time in over a century that a sitting president has removed a Fed governor [1][5]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Implications - Lisa Cook's attorney announced plans to sue President Trump over her dismissal, citing that the Federal Reserve Act requires a valid reason for such actions [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve emphasized its commitment to adhere to any court rulings regarding Cook's case, highlighting the importance of the long-term fixed terms and protections for governors [2][3]. Group 2: Political Motivations - Trump's motivation for dismissing Cook appears to be linked to his dissatisfaction with the Fed's reluctance to lower interest rates, which he believes is necessary to address housing costs [5][6]. - Trump has indicated that he has candidates in mind to replace Cook, aiming to increase his influence within the Federal Reserve by filling more seats with his appointees [4][5]. Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Experts warn that if Trump successfully removes Cook, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence and leading to greater economic uncertainty in the future [8][9].

美国总统特朗普宣布罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）风波持续发酵。 当地时间8月26日，美联储首次就此作出回应，强调《联邦储备法》赋予理事的长期任期和解职保护机 制，并明确表示库克将通过司法途径捍卫其职位。 特朗普周一宣布库克"即刻被解职"，理由是其在房贷申请中涉嫌虚假陈述。根据《联邦储备法》规定， 美联储理事任期14年，总统仅能因"正当理由"予以解职。如何界定"正当理由"，将成为法庭核心争点。 库克已聘请华盛顿律师阿贝·洛厄尔（Abbe Lowell）代理诉讼。洛厄尔在声明中表示，特朗普"无权罢 免"库克，"他仅凭一封转介函就试图解职，这在事实和法律上都毫无依据。我们将提起诉讼，挑战这一 非法行为。" 美联储则表明，不会接受总统单方面决定，而是等待司法机关裁定。司法部尚未对库克采取行动，使得 其去留悬而未决，也令9月议息会议笼罩政治化阴影。 券商Evercore ISI 分析师古哈（Krishna Guha）与卡西拉吉（Marco Casiraghi）表示："特朗普试图解雇 库克可能成为一个转折点，让美联储逐渐按总统意愿'重塑'。"分析师表示，美联储到2026年可能出现 显著的"特朗普化"，表现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges due to President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which has raised concerns about political interference in monetary policy [1][10][14]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Response - The Federal Reserve stated that the long-term fixed terms of its governors and the protection against dismissal are crucial for ensuring that monetary policy decisions are based on data and the long-term interests of the American people [3][4]. - The Fed will comply with any court rulings regarding Cook's dismissal [4]. Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's actions are seen as part of a systematic intervention in the Federal Reserve, with previous appointments of loyalists and public criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's policies [6][7]. - Historically, no Fed governor has been dismissed by a president, and Trump's ability to remove Cook remains uncertain due to legal restrictions requiring substantial evidence of misconduct [8][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Trump's threats, the U.S. dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and S&P 500 futures experienced limited declines [10]. - Analysts suggest that if the Fed's decision-making is increasingly influenced by Trump's policies, it could lead to accelerated rate cuts, benefiting equities and global risk assets while causing fluctuations in commodity prices [10]. Group 4: Future Considerations - If Trump successfully removes Cook, he would gain a majority on the Fed's Board, potentially undermining the Fed's independence and affecting its ability to control inflation [14][15]. - The political cycle may increasingly influence the Fed's policy objectives, shifting from a dual mandate of price stability and employment growth to potentially incorporating political considerations [15].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on grounds of alleged mortgage fraud, marking the first time in over a century that a president has removed a Fed governor, indicating a significant escalation in Trump's conflict with the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Statements - Lisa Cook's attorney announced plans to sue Trump over the dismissal, seeking judicial review of the decision [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve spokesperson stated that the law provides long-term fixed terms for governors, and a president can only dismiss them for "just cause," emphasizing the importance of this protection for monetary policy decisions [3][12]. Group 2: Trump's Intentions and Future Appointments - Trump expressed a desire for "100% transparency" in the Federal Reserve and indicated readiness for legal battles regarding Cook's dismissal, while also stating he has suitable candidates in mind to replace her [5][10]. - Reports suggest Trump is considering Stephen Moore and David Malpass as potential replacements for Cook on the Federal Reserve Board [5][10]. Group 3: Implications for the Federal Reserve's Independence - Experts warn that if Trump successfully dismisses Cook, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence and leading to greater economic uncertainty in the future [12][13]. - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, with only two currently appointed by Trump, indicating a potential shift in the board's composition if more vacancies are created [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges due to President Trump's actions, including the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which has raised concerns about political interference in monetary policy [1][4][16]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Response - The Federal Reserve stated that the law protects the long-term terms of its governors and that the President can only dismiss them for just cause, ensuring that monetary policy decisions are based on data and the long-term interests of the American people [4]. - Cook's legal team announced plans to seek judicial review of her dismissal, and the Federal Reserve will comply with any court rulings [4] Group 2: Trump's Position and Actions - Trump expressed his intention to fight the legal challenge posed by Cook and indicated he has candidates in mind to replace her, specifically mentioning Stephen Moore and David Malpass [6]. - Trump's actions are seen as part of a systematic intervention in the Federal Reserve, having previously appointed allies and criticized current policies [8][16]. Group 3: Historical Context and Implications - Historically, no Federal Reserve governor has been dismissed by a president, and while the president has the authority to do so, it is limited by the requirement of substantial evidence of misconduct [9]. - The potential dismissal of Cook could give Trump a majority on the Federal Reserve Board, which may lead to increased political influence over monetary policy decisions [16]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Following Trump's threats, there was a limited decline in the dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and S&P 500 futures, indicating market sensitivity to the Federal Reserve's independence [11]. - Analysts suggest that if Trump's influence over the Federal Reserve increases, it could accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts, benefiting risk assets and commodities while creating uncertainty in policy direction [11][12]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The potential shift in the Federal Reserve's policy goals from dual mandates of price stability and employment growth to include political cycles could alter the landscape of U.S. monetary policy [17]. - The need for fiscal consolidation is emphasized as a means to support the Federal Reserve's efforts in controlling inflation, with the government facing a "quasi-war" fiscal state [13][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the coming months despite ongoing inflation risks, leading to market volatility and uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [1][2] - The labor market is perceived as deceptive, with a stable unemployment rate masking a slowdown in labor participation and job demand, creating a "peculiar balance" [1] - Concerns about stagflation arise, characterized by stagnant economic growth and high inflation, with fears that the current administration's policies may exacerbate cost and price pressures [2] Group 2 - The potential loss of the Federal Reserve's independence raises concerns about aggressive interest rate cuts, influenced by political pressures from the current administration [2] - The onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve may provide an opportunity for emerging markets, including China, to enhance monetary policy flexibility and lower financing costs [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. financial landscape could lead global capital to seek alternative safe assets, presenting an opportunity for the internationalization of the Chinese yuan [3][4] Group 3 - China should prioritize the development of cross-border investment and financing functions for the yuan, expanding its capital flow channels to meet the demand for alternatives to U.S. dollar assets [4] - There is a need for the yuan to transition from a settlement currency to a pricing currency, enhancing its influence in commodity pricing [4] - Establishing a resilient yuan system with global significance is essential, along with the development of a global payment and clearing network to support the internationalization of the yuan [4]