美国总统特朗普将于4月2日宣布对等关税政策的细节，这一计划旨在通过征收与贸易伙伴对美国商品相 同税率的关税，以"减少庞大且持续的商品贸易逆差"。根据白宫新闻秘书莱维特的说明，该计划不会包 含任何豁免条款，且特朗普的多位高级经济顾问已为此提出了具体实施方案。尽管莱维特对关税计划对 股市的影响"不以为然"，但市场对这一政策的潜在冲击仍持谨慎态度。 对等关税的广泛性与针对性 特朗普在3月31日明确表示，对等关税的征收对象将包括全球所有国家，而不仅仅是贸易逆差最严重的 10到15个国家。这一表态推翻了此前市场对关税范围可能受限的猜测。特朗普强调，关税是保护美国国 内经济免受不公平全球竞争的一种方式，同时也是为美国争取更好条款的谈判筹码。然而，经济学家普 遍认为，广泛的关税措施可能会适得其反，加剧全球经济的不确定性。 经济衰退风险上升 高盛集团在3月30日发布的研究报告中，将未来12个月美国经济衰退的概率从20%上调至35%。这一调 整反映了美国经济基准预期的下降、家庭和企业信心的急剧恶化，以及白宫官员为实现政策目标而更愿 意容忍短期经济疲软的言论。高盛还预测，今年美国平均关税税率将升高15个百分点，核心个人消费支 出 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant increase in demand for vegetable oils, driven by the potential rise in biodiesel blending requirements by the EPA, which could lead to an additional demand of 5.2 to 8 million tons of vegetable oil [2][6][8] - The political motivations behind Trump's shift towards supporting biofuels are discussed, emphasizing the need to maintain support from agricultural states while aligning with the interests of oil companies investing in renewable energy [6][8] - The article notes that the increase in biodiesel blending requirements may be gradual, with potential challenges in achieving the projected demand due to limited land availability for soybean and canola production in the U.S. [7][8] Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. government's tariff policies on commodity pricing, particularly how tariffs could increase import costs and affect the North American supply chain [10] - It mentions the recent actions by the U.S. Treasury to raise capital for major banks, signaling a focus on financial stability and support for the real economy, which could positively impact the capital market [12] - The article also addresses the current state of the pork market, indicating a potential decline in prices due to increased supply pressures from a large number of piglets expected to be sold in 2024 [14]

特朗普正在扩大其经济威慑工具库，"二级关税"已成为他的新型经济武器。 尽管特朗普多次淡化4月2日所谓"对等关税"计划的力度，但据媒体最新报道， 近日特朗普已转向更为强硬立场，督促团队设计覆盖面更广、税率更高的方 案。 3月30日，据央视新闻和新华社报道，特朗普近日 接连对伊朗和俄罗斯发出强硬警告，不仅威胁"轰炸伊朗"，还对普京表示"非常生气"，并扬言对购买俄 罗斯石油的国家征收25%-50%的"二级关税"。 上周，特朗普曾多次淡化4月2日所谓"对等关税"计划的力度，表示将比原先设想的"更温和"，甚至考虑对某些国家完全豁免关税。然而媒体援引知情人士透 露，近日特朗普已转向更为强硬立场，督促团队设计覆盖面更广、税率更高的方案。 报道称，关税设计的一个核心争议点是： 究竟是对不同贸易伙伴实施"差别化税率"，还是回归竞选期间提出的"一刀切式"全面关税，这将几乎影响所有与 美国有贸易往来的国家。 具体执行方式仍未最终确定。据报道， 特朗普顾问团队近期考虑了一项高达20%的全球性关税，几乎覆盖全部美国贸易伙伴。 这一方案与特朗普竞选期间鼓吹数月的政策一致，尽管此后特朗普曾公开转向支持所谓"对等关税"，即"他们收我们多少， ...

投资者正在为"4月2日"做最后准备，股票市场遭受冲击，债券市场成避风港。 今年前三个月，在特朗普一连串的关税措施影响下，全球股票和债券市场都经历了剧烈波动。但有一点 变得越来越清晰：美元作为避险资产摇摆不定，债券比股票更有吸引力。 股市整体不振，汽车、电子、制药等关键行业面临冲击 2月底以来，美国股市市值已蒸发超过5万亿美元。 美国市场方面，汽车行业（包括汽车制造商、零部件供应商和经销商）仍然处于关税相关动荡的中心， 特别是在上周特朗普宣布将对进口汽车加征25%关税后。 分析认为，"对等关税"政策可能会加剧美国汽车行业的痛苦，还可能针对半导体芯片、药品和木材等行 业。除了通用这样的汽车巨头，像英伟达、AMD和英特尔这样的芯片制造商也将成为关注焦点；制药 巨头如辉瑞、强生、默克和百时美施贵宝也将暴露在风险中。 欧洲市场方面，欧股汽车股已经受到影响，欧洲斯托克汽车及零部件指数较今年高点下跌约12%。 特朗普政府预计将于周三宣布一系列所谓的"对等关税"措施，这很可能成为市场的下一个重大打击。根 据彭博经济学家的分析，取决于关税措施的规模，美国GDP可能受到打击，未来几年物价可能大幅波 动，特别是考虑到可能对来自某些 ...

SHMET 网讯：周一（3月31日），在特朗普公布新一轮关税之前，股市在亚洲早盘交易中下跌。同时，由于担心全球贸易战对经济造成影响，避险需 求刺激黄金触及历史新高。 日韩股市周一大幅低开。日经225指数早盘持续下跌，自3月11日以来首次跌破36000点，跌幅一度扩大至4%。东证指数下跌超3%。东京证交所33个行 业分项指数全线下跌。对全球贸易战的担忧导致出口相关股票下滑，日元走强也加大了出口商股票的压力。日经股指有望创下2020年3月以来的最差季度。 自去年12月底以来，日经指数下跌超过10%，东证指数下跌超过4%。 澳大利亚S&P/ASX200指数开盘下跌107.20点，跌幅1.34%，报7874.80点。标普500指数期货也下跌。 "在4月2日的关税之前，市场可能会感到紧张，"Pictet Asset Management Japan Ltd.的投资策略主管Jumpei Tanaka在谈到即将到来的美国对等关税时 说。"周一美股期货持续下跌是日股走软的原因之一。" Saison资产管理公司的投资组合经理Tetsuo Seshimo说："这是一种风险规避举措，因为人们担心，由于特朗普政府的政策（包括关税）的 ...

当地时间3月30日，美国全国广播公司（NBC）《与新闻界对话》节目主持人称，特朗普在接受其电话采访时说，当俄罗斯总统普京"批评乌克兰总统泽连斯 基领导地位的可信度时"，他感到"生气和愤怒"。 据报道，特朗普称，如果他认为俄罗斯在阻止他结束战争的努力，他"将对所有俄罗斯石油征收25%至50%的二级关税——如果没有停火，这些关税可能会在 一个月内开始征收"。 特朗普还称，他计划在新的一周再次与普京通话。 当地时间3月30日，美国总统特朗普接连对俄罗斯和伊朗"放狠话"。 特朗普在接受 美国全国广播公司（NBC） 电话采访时说，当俄罗斯总统普京"批评乌克兰总统泽连斯基领导地位的可信度时"，他感到"生气和愤怒"。特朗普 称，如果他认为俄罗斯在阻止他结束战争的努力，他"将对所有俄罗斯石油征收25%至50%的二级关税——如果没有停火，这些关税可能会在一个月内开始征 收"。 特朗普还就伊朗核问题进行威胁。他说，"如果伊朗不与美国就其核问题达成协议，美国将对伊朗进行轰炸"，并对其相关产品"征收二级关税"。 值得一提的是，4月2日"对等关税公告日"就在本周。特朗普此前表示，将于4月2日开始征收对等关税。农产品关税也将于4月2日生 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imminent implementation of Trump's tariff policies in early April, focusing on the implications for various industries and the potential impact on U.S.-China trade relations [1][2]. Tariff Policy Implementation - Key tariff-related developments set to take effect in early April include the "America First Trade Policy" memorandum investigation, reciprocal tariffs, secondary tariffs on Venezuelan oil imports, and automobile tariffs [1][2]. - The "America First Trade Policy" memorandum, released on January 20, 2025, indicates a shift in Trump's negotiation strategy regarding trade relations with China, moving away from border security as the primary justification for tariffs [2]. Reciprocal Tariffs - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs will consider tariffs, turnover taxes, regulations, and non-tariff trade barriers [3]. - Targeted economies for these tariffs may include India, Brazil, Vietnam, South Korea, and certain sectors in the EU and Japan, as they have higher average tariff rates compared to the U.S. [3][4]. Industry Impact Analysis - The impact of tariffs on exports is non-linear, with industries facing higher cumulative tariff rates experiencing more significant declines in exports to the U.S. in the first two months of the year [5]. - Industries with cumulative tariff rates between 40% and 50%, such as leather goods, automobiles, and wooden products, saw an average export growth decline of 46.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [5]. Labor-Intensive Industries - Labor-intensive industries in China, such as toys, furniture, and footwear, have a high proportion of revenue from U.S. exports, making them more vulnerable to additional cost pressures from tariffs [6]. - The revenue share from U.S. exports for these labor-intensive sectors is notably high, with toys at 32.6%, furniture at 25.0%, and footwear at 24.3% [6]. Macro Economic Trends - The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in industrial enterprise revenue and profit growth in early 2025, with profit margins shifting towards lower-end industries [7]. - The decrease in profit margins is primarily attributed to falling profitability in the upstream mining sector, likely linked to declining coal prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is characterized by high uncertainty regarding the seriousness and impact of the Trump administration's efforts to reshape the economic framework, with the upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" date of April 2 being a significant turning point [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - The Trump administration's initial approach to restoring industrial competitiveness involves raising tariffs, while also planning to implement a dollar depreciation policy if necessary, which could lead to market volatility [2][3]. - The market initially reacted positively to Trump's policies, reminiscent of "Trump 1.0," but the subsequent "Trump 2.0" has seen a significant downturn, with the stock market losses in March completely offsetting previous gains since the election [2][3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the details of the reciprocal tariffs is seen as a critical moment, with mixed sentiments in the market as participants await clarity [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Market Trends - There is a noticeable trend of diversifying investments away from U.S. markets, with funds being directed towards regions less affected by U.S. policies, such as China and Europe, which have seen significant stock market recoveries [3][4]. - Investors are increasingly focusing on assets with low sensitivity to Trump’s policies, referred to as "low beta" investments, such as gold, which has appreciated significantly over the past year [4]. - The "Magnificent 7" stocks that previously drove the U.S. market higher are now facing scrutiny, with concerns about their high sensitivity to Trump's policies impacting their valuations [4][5]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The potential for retaliatory tariffs could dampen global trade, and the U.S. economy faces challenges in achieving tax cuts without reducing fiscal spending [3][5]. - The ongoing domestic divisions and chaos in the U.S. are expected to prolong the period of economic uncertainty, raising questions about the sustainability of the current economic trajectory [3][5]. - The market is at a crossroads, contemplating whether the U.S. is entering a "golden age" as claimed by Trump or if it is on the brink of a global economic downturn due to high tariffs [5].

Core Viewpoint - India is considering the cancellation of import taxes on U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and reducing tariffs on U.S. agricultural products to address trade imbalances and avoid potential trade sanctions from the Trump administration [1][2]. Group 1: LNG Import Tax - India is contemplating the removal of a 2.5% basic customs duty and a 0.25% social welfare tax on U.S. LNG imports to enhance procurement and reduce trade surplus with the U.S. [2][3] - The Indian government aims to increase energy imports from the U.S. from $10 billion to $25 billion, with a target of achieving $500 billion in bilateral trade by 2030 [2][3]. Group 2: Agricultural Tariffs - India is also considering lowering tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, including pecans, pulses, and non-GMO soybeans, in response to U.S. requests [4]. - The potential reduction in agricultural tariffs may create opportunities for U.S. exporters, although it could negatively impact India's domestic agricultural sector, which is politically sensitive [4].

Group 1 - The article reports on the personnel changes in the National Sports Administration, specifically the removal of Zhou Jihong from her position as the Director of the Swimming Management Center and the leader of the National Diving Team, as well as Zhang Xiaopeng from his role as the Deputy Director and Discipline Inspection Secretary of the Table Tennis and Badminton Management Center [1] - Zhou Jihong is noted for her significant achievements, including winning the first Olympic gold medal for China in diving at the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics and her various roles within international swimming organizations, including being the first female Vice President of FINA [1]