Group 1 - The historical trend indicates that for every 1% decline in the US dollar index, gold prices tend to rise by an average of 0.8% from 2000 to 2023 [2] - The current situation shows that the Federal Reserve has paused interest rate hikes, leading the dollar index to drop from a high of 114 to 105, which supports gold prices [2] - Key indicators to monitor include the actual yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, with a critical point at 0% and the current value at 1.4% [2] Group 2 - A rise of 10 points in the geopolitical risk index correlates with a short-term increase in gold prices by 2-3% [2] - When the US CPI year-on-year exceeds 5%, the annualized return rate for gold reaches 12% [2] - The current global inflation center has shifted to 4%, above the pre-pandemic level of 3% [2] Group 3 - Trigger conditions for significant gold price increases include a US unemployment rate above 4.5% and CPI falling below 3% [4] - If gold prices break through $2100, they could potentially reach $2300 [4] - Gold mining stocks are expected to benefit significantly, with potential price increases up to twice that of gold prices due to leverage effects [4] Group 4 - The historical reference from the 1970s stagflation period shows that gold prices increased by 12 times [4] - Investment strategies recommended include increasing holdings in gold ETFs (like GLD) and physical gold bars [4] - The global central banks' aggressive interest rate hikes could lead to a surge in actual interest rates [4] Group 5 - The formula for gold allocation is based on the geopolitical risk index and inflation rate, indicating a calculated approach to investment [6] - Gold is viewed as a "ballast" during turbulent times, with expectations for it to potentially break historical highs in 2024 due to multiple driving factors [6] - The essence of gold allocation is seen as purchasing "insurance" rather than seeking excess returns [7] Group 6 - The average premium for Shanghai gold in 2023 was $7 per ounce, peaking at $35 per ounce [7] - The strategy includes buying physical gold domestically and hedging with overseas futures [7] - The potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs could divert 20% of safe-haven funds away from gold [7]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with targets set at $3435 and $3500, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3][8]. Market Performance - On June 12, gold opened at $3356.10 per ounce, reached a high of $3398.86, and closed at $3386.58, marking a daily increase of $30.48 or 0.91% [1]. - The daily trading range was $60.28, indicating significant volatility [1]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index fell, supporting gold prices, as both employment and inflation data showed signs of cooling, reinforcing expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [3][7]. - The market anticipates a nearly 60% probability of a rate cut in September, despite strong non-farm payroll data that reduced immediate cut expectations [5][7]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, are fueling market risk aversion, which benefits gold prices [8]. - Recent comments from former President Trump advocating for a 200 basis point rate cut have further strengthened the outlook for gold [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains in a bullish trend, supported by the 5-month moving average, despite recent volatility [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has rebounded from key support levels, with expectations to reach the upper Bollinger Band at $3500 [11]. - The daily chart reflects a bullish outlook, with gold stabilizing above the 5-10 day moving averages and aiming for targets of $3435 and $3500 [13]. Investment Strategy - The market is advised to look for buying opportunities at support levels around $3371 or $3360, while resistance levels are noted at $3400 or $3435 [13].

周四（6月12日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数跌0.71%，报97.929点，日内交投区间为98.519-97.602点。 彭博美元指数跌0.59%，报1200.29点，日内交投区间为1205.99-1197.45点。 ...

美元指数跌0.74%，现报97.90，报道称7月最后期限临近，印度和美国在贸易谈判中立场加强。 ...

北京时间6月12日晚间， 美元指数周四一路走低跌近1%，为三年来最低水平。整体来看，美元正面临多重压力叠加：经济数据疲软、地缘局势紧张以及 技术面破位，市场对其短期反弹空间持谨慎态度。而避险货币的强势表现，进一步凸显出全球投资者对前景不确定性的担忧。 | 全球商品 中国商品 原油 | | 黄金白银 | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵金属 已 | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 COMEX黄金 | | | 3391.020 36.352 | | 3411.7 | | +36.120 +1.08% +0.132 +0.36% | | +68.0 +2.03% | | COMEX日银 SHFE黄金 | | SHFE自银 | | 36.460 787.44 | | 8832 | | +0.199 +0.55% +6.48 +0.83% | | -2 -0.02% | | 能源化工 c | | | | NYMEX WTI原 | ICE布油 ICE轻质低硫原 | | | 67.18 68.83 | | 64.81 | | -0.97 -1.42% -0.94 -1.35% -0.91 -1.38% | ...

美国劳工统计局稍早前公布的数据显示，5月份最终需求PPI环比上升0.1%，市场预估中值为上升 0.2%。 美元指数大跌，日内跌1%，报97.62，创2022年3月以来新低。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has experienced a short-term decline of approximately 20 points, currently standing at 97.70, indicating fluctuations in currency strength [1] Group 1: Financial Markets - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has decreased in the short term, currently reported at 4.371%, reflecting changes in investor sentiment [1] - US stock futures have shown a slight increase, with the Nasdaq 100 index futures narrowing their decline to 0.5%, suggesting a potential recovery in tech stocks [1] - Spot gold has remained relatively stable, currently priced at 3384.72 USD per ounce, indicating steady demand in the precious metals market [1]

美元指数DXY日内大跌1.00%，现报97.65。 ...

智通财经6月12日电，美元指数大跌，日内跌1%，报97.62。 ...

金十数据6月12日讯，美元指数DXY失守98，为4月21日来首次，日内跌幅0.68%。 美指失守98 ...