Core Viewpoint - In June, the interbank foreign exchange market in China showed stable trading performance amid increasing geopolitical risks, easing uncertainties in U.S. trade policies, and new progress in China-U.S. economic and trade consultations [1] Trading Volume - The average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market reached $208.217 billion in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.71% and remaining above $200 billion for three consecutive months [3] - The average daily trading volume for the RMB foreign exchange market was $152.444 billion, reflecting an 8.89% year-on-year increase but a 3.58% month-on-month decline [3] - The foreign currency market and foreign currency interest rate market saw trading activity increase by over 30% year-on-year [3] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar index initially rose and then fell, ending June at 96.77, a depreciation of 2.68% for the month [2] - The RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar fluctuated and rose, with the central parity rate on June 20 at 7.1695 [2] - The CFETS index for the RMB against a basket of currencies fell to 95.35 points by the end of June, a cumulative depreciation of 0.64% for the month [2] Interest Rate Differentials - The interest rate differential between China and the U.S. continued to narrow, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping to 4.23% by the end of June [4] - The 10-year China-U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed to -264 basis points, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous month [4] Swap Points - The 1-year swap points rose to -1866 basis points by the end of June, an increase of 194 basis points, marking the highest level in nearly eight months [4] - The difference between the 1-year swap points and the theoretical value based on interest rate parity turned positive, ending at 117 basis points, the highest this year [5] - The overnight interest rate differential between domestic and foreign dollars remained negative throughout June, with the month-end rate at -18 basis points [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-30 美债收益率显著回落提振市场，静待议 息会议指引 议息会议前⼣市场交投相对清淡，美元指数短线强势反弹，但贵⾦属对此 反应甚微，隔夜美国公布的职位空缺数低于预期，美债收益率显著⾛低， 对市场形成提振。后续来看，经贸不确定性短期下降，关税逐渐成为慢变 量，关注美国基本⾯及降息预期变化，本周美国⾮农数据及7⽉降息会议 上美联储的表达较为重要。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月JOLTs职位空缺743.7万人，预期750万人，前值由776.9万 人修正为771.2万人。 2）美国总统特朗普发布信函称将自8月1日起对巴西产品征收50%的关 税。对于大量进口巴西咖啡豆的美国咖啡行业来说，这一关税政策给 他们造成严重冲击。 3）IMF将全球经济情况描述为"在持续的不确定性中，保持脆弱的韧 性"。IMF预计2025年全球经济增长率为3.0%，2026年为3. 1%。此外，IMF预计全球整体通胀率将在2025年降至4.2%，在2026年 降至3.6%。IMF将中国2025年的增长率较4月WEO预期上调了0.8个百分 点，达到4.8%。IMF ...

每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，7月29日纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.27%报98.92，非美货币多数下跌。欧元兑美元跌0.37%报 1.1545，英镑兑美元跌0.03%报1.3350，澳元兑美元跌0.16%报0.6510，美元兑日元跌0.06%报148.4735， 美元兑加元涨0.24%报1.3771，美元兑瑞郎涨0.30%报0.8061。 ...

1美元兑换148.43日元，低于前一交易日的148.56日元；1美元兑换0.8055瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.8033瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3767加元，高于前一交易日的1.3734加元；1美元兑换9.6434瑞典克朗，高 于前一交易日的9.6121瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华社） 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.26%，在汇市尾市收于98.888。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1550美元，低于前一交易日的1.1595美元；1英镑兑换1.3356美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3354美元。 ...

Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the RMB/USD exchange rate has experienced fluctuations, initially appreciating, then depreciating, and finally appreciating again, maintaining relative strength overall [3][4] - The RMB has appreciated by 1.79% against the USD, while the USD index has decreased by 9.97% during the same period, indicating a trend of RMB appreciation against the USD and depreciation against a basket of currencies [4] - The rapid decline of the USD index has exceeded market expectations, influenced by various factors including US economic policies and trade tariffs [4][5] Exchange Rate Trends - From the beginning of the year to March 18, the RMB appreciated from 7.3 to 7.22, then weakened to 7.35 by April 9, before appreciating again to around 7.17 by July 25 [4] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell from 102.1 at the beginning of the year to approximately 95.7 by July 25, reflecting the RMB's performance against a basket of currencies [4] External Factors Influencing RMB - The decline in the USD index is attributed to several factors, including market expectations of US economic policies and the impact of tariffs on economic growth [4][9] - The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and the sustainability of US debt has weakened confidence in USD assets, which may constrain the USD index's performance in the medium term [4][5] Domestic Economic Environment - The stable domestic economic policy environment has supported the RMB exchange rate, with a focus on stabilizing employment and enterprises [5][10] - In the first half of the year, exports grew by 5.9%, demonstrating resilience in the foreign trade sector, which has positively impacted the RMB [5][11] Future Outlook for RMB - The RMB exchange rate will continue to be influenced by both internal and external factors, including the USD index and tariff policies, as well as domestic economic recovery and policy management expectations [8][10] - The USD index is expected to experience complex movements, with potential for both upward and downward pressures [9][10] - Domestic macroeconomic policies are anticipated to remain accommodative, supporting industrial profits and enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets [10][11] Policy Management - Authorities are committed to maintaining a stable exchange rate, utilizing various strategies to manage expectations and liquidity in offshore markets [12] - Since May, the RMB middle rate has aligned closely with onshore and offshore spot rates, indicating stability in the exchange rate [12]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have dropped to a near three-week low due to a stronger dollar and improved risk sentiment following the US-EU trade agreement, with investors awaiting key US economic data this week that could influence gold prices [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The dollar's rebound is a significant factor pressuring gold prices, supported by strong US economic data such as core capital goods orders and optimistic trade negotiations [1] - The US Federal Reserve's cautious policy stance and President Trump's calls for interest rate cuts may provide potential support for gold prices [1][2] - Market sentiment is mixed, with only 14% of professional analysts bullish on gold prices, while 66% of retail investors remain optimistic about a price increase, indicating confidence in the long-term trend [4] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Central Bank Actions - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Thailand and Cambodia, and stalled ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, continue to pose risks that could support gold prices if conditions worsen [2] - Central banks are increasing gold purchases as part of a "de-dollarization" strategy, particularly among emerging economies like China, providing long-term support for gold prices [2] Group 3: Upcoming Events and Technical Analysis - The market is anticipating significant events this week, particularly the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Fed is expected to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% [2][6] - Key economic data releases, including JOLTS job openings, consumer confidence index, ADP employment data, and the non-farm payroll report, will influence the Fed's future monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [6][7] - Technically, gold is currently oscillating around $3,335, testing a critical upward trend line, with support levels identified between $3,319 and $3,325 [6]

本周四2:00，美联储将公布7月利率决议结果，主流预期其将维持4.25%～4.5%的基准利率不变。如果美联储真的 能够保持当前的高利率不变，美元相比其他货币的吸引力更高，美元升值的趋势就能够维持住。但是，美国总统 特朗普一直在批评美联储的暂停降息政策，他希望美联储能够在短时间内将基准利率从4.5%下降至1%左右。如果 美联储坚持不降息，美联储主席鲍威尔极有可能因为总部大楼的翻新资金超预算而在明年5月份任期届满之前离 职。综合来看，美联储下半年迅速降息的概率极高，这是美元指数的潜在重大利空。 ATFX汇市：全球主要国家与美国的关税协议落地后，市场情绪转向乐观，美元指数开启暴涨模式。本周一，美元 指数从最低97.46暴涨至最高98.66，本周二涨势延续，亚盘和欧盘时段，最高点已经冲击至99.03点，逼近100整数 关口。受美元指数上涨影响，黄金、欧元、日元等剧烈贬值，其中黄金和欧元表现最为明显，前者从3438美元跌 至3301美元，后者从1.1769跌至1.1525点。 国际市场对于关税的态度发生巨大变化。英国、日本、欧盟等全球主要经济体先后与美国达成贸易协议，并且协 议内容有利于美国。美国不仅可以从关税收入中弥 ...

Group 1: International Gold Market - International gold price fluctuated and closed down at $3314.18 per ounce, with a high of $3345.35 and a low of $3301.47 during the trading day [1][9] - The COMEX gold futures closed at $3314.00 per ounce [9] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings stood at 956.23 tons [9][10] Group 2: Currency and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 495.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan after 170.7 billion yuan matured [2][10] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1729 against the USD, down 50 basis points from the previous trading day, with the USD index rising by 1.02% to 98.6694 [15][2] Group 3: Macro Events and Trade Agreements - Trump announced that the U.S. will soon impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with global tariffs expected to be around 15-20% [2][17] - The EU and U.S. have established a general framework for a trade agreement, but specific details, including those related to alcoholic beverages, are still under negotiation [2][17] - The trade agreement includes a $750 billion energy purchase commitment and a $600 billion investment commitment from the EU, which may increase energy costs in Europe and accelerate capital outflow, negatively impacting the European economy [2][17] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - U.S. major stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow down 0.14% at 44,837.56 points, S&P 500 up 0.02% at 6,389.77 points, and Nasdaq up 0.33% at 21,178.58 points [16] - Chinese A-shares saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44% [16]

美元指数涨0.3%，报99.02，创6月末以来新高。 ...

智通财经7月29日电，美元指数短线拉升20点，上破99关口；欧元兑美元短线走低20余点。 ...