Workflow
关税协议
icon
Search documents
铜:情绪改善,价格上涨
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 02:47
季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,090 | -0.22% | 78650 | 0.72% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,625 | 1.29% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 90,876 | -34,221 | 181,940 | -5,790 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,175 | 2,025 | 290,000 | -1,454 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 29,157 | 9,073 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 189,650 | -1,100 | 42.86% | -0.24% | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 ...
每日投行/机构观点梳理(2025-05-13)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-14 02:01
Group 1: Commodity Market Insights - Citigroup has lowered its short-term gold price target to $3,150 per ounce, expecting gold to consolidate in the $3,000-$3,300 range in the coming months [1] - Goldman Sachs indicates that mid-term risks for oil prices are skewed to the downside, predicting Brent and WTI crude prices to average $60 and $56 per barrel respectively in 2025, based on strong global supply growth and demand slowdown [2] - Goldman Sachs also forecasts that OPEC+ will stop increasing oil production starting in August due to slowing economic activity and weak oil demand [3] Group 2: Trade and Currency Implications - Nomura has upgraded Chinese stocks to "tactical overweight" following an unexpected U.S.-China tariff agreement, which is expected to support positive risk sentiment in global markets [1] - Deutsche Bank notes that the recent easing of the global trade war has an unclear impact on the U.S. dollar, suggesting that positive trade news benefits global economic growth more than the U.S. itself [4] - CICC suggests that if tariffs are further reduced, the Federal Reserve may have the opportunity to cut interest rates in the latter half of the year to alleviate growth pressures [5] Group 3: Domestic Market Developments - CITIC Securities expects that the issuance of new special bonds will exceed 1 trillion in both the second and third quarters of 2025, driven by a more accommodative monetary policy [10] - CITIC Securities maintains a positive outlook on the U.S. internet sector over the next 6-12 months, anticipating strong performance from major internet companies despite potential adjustments due to tariff policy changes [11] - Deutsche Bank's chief economist emphasizes a bullish outlook on A-shares, focusing on three main lines: domestic demand, trade recovery, and technology [12]
日本财务大臣加藤胜信:如果与美国财长贝森特的会晤得以实现,双方有可能就关税协议进行讨论。不会对外汇水平发表评论。
news flash· 2025-05-13 00:42
Group 1 - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu indicated that if a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Yellen occurs, there is a possibility of discussing tariff agreements [1] - Kato stated that he would not comment on exchange rate levels [1]
曝哪吒失去国资股东信任,丰田辟谣将其收购;博主喊话SU7 Ultra应卖80万而非50万,让真喜欢的人买;中美相互取消91%关税
雷峰网· 2025-05-13 00:24
Group 1 - The US and China have reached a temporary agreement to suspend mutual tariffs of 24% for 90 days, with both sides agreeing to cancel or suspend a total of 91% of tariffs on each other's goods [3][5][4] - Following the announcement, the US dollar index rose by 0.62%, while gold prices fell by approximately 2.18%, indicating market reactions to the easing of trade tensions [3][5] - Analysts suggest that the 90-day suspension provides both parties with more negotiation time, potentially leading to a more stable economic relationship in the long term [5] Group 2 - There are reports that state-owned investors no longer trust the founding team of Neta Auto, with speculation about Toyota's interest in acquiring the company, although both parties have denied these rumors [7][8] - Neta Auto's financial issues have raised concerns among its investors, leading to written inquiries about its operational status and financial health [8] - The company has faced scrutiny over its operational capabilities and funding, with significant stakeholders expressing doubts about its future [7][8] Group 3 - Hisense's Vidda brand has been found guilty of commercial defamation against Xiaomi, resulting in a court ruling that requires Vidda to publish a statement to mitigate the damage caused [9][10] - The court ruled that Vidda's marketing materials contained statements that could mislead the public into associating them with Xiaomi, damaging Xiaomi's reputation [9][10] Group 4 - JD.com has faced allegations of fraudulent practices regarding its "quality dining" restaurants, with reports of unsanitary conditions and misleading certifications [12][13] - The company had previously emphasized that only quality dining establishments would be allowed on its platform, but investigations revealed significant discrepancies in compliance [12][13] Group 5 - The sales of Neta Auto have declined significantly, with a reported drop in net profit exceeding 90%, prompting the company to expand layoffs to 20,000 employees [35][36] - Despite a slight decrease in global sales, the Chinese market has seen a substantial decline of 12.2%, which has adversely affected the overall performance of the company [35][36] Group 6 - Xiaomi's SU7 Ultra has been the subject of debate regarding its pricing strategy, with some advocates suggesting it should be priced higher to attract a more affluent customer base [14][15] - The vehicle's initial pricing strategy has been criticized, with suggestions that a higher price point would filter out less serious buyers [14][15] Group 7 - The cross-border e-commerce platform Kaola has been taken offline, which was previously acquired by Alibaba for $2 billion, indicating a significant shift in the company's operational strategy [6][16] - The app's removal from various platforms marks a notable change in the competitive landscape of cross-border e-commerce in China [6][16] Group 8 - Tesla employees have publicly protested against CEO Elon Musk, leading to the dismissal of one employee who created a website criticizing Musk's leadership [28] - The protest highlights internal dissatisfaction with Musk's management style and its perceived impact on the company's brand and sales [28]
豆粕周报:关注关税进展,连粕高位回落-20250512
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 12:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - This week, soybean meal fluctuated. The US and the UK reached a tariff agreement, and the UK will increase imports of US agricultural products, which may have a leading effect and benefit US soybean exports. China and the US have started contact and talks, but it may be difficult to reach a consensus in the short term, with limited impact. Last week, the net sales of US soybean exports were 387,000 tons, in line with expectations, supporting the upward fluctuation of US soybeans. However, the USDA drought report showed that as of May 6, the drought - affected area of US soybeans remained stable at 15%, which was relatively low overall. Argentina raised its soybean production forecast for this year by 1.4 million tons to 50 million tons, which was negative for US soybeans. In China, as the customs clearance of imported soybeans resumes, the operating rate of oil mills has gradually increased, and the spot supply of soybean meal has changed from tight to loose, with the spot basis dropping significantly. Currently, the soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills are low, but they are about to enter the inventory - building cycle. The long - and short - term factors are intertwined, and US soybeans fluctuate. The supply of domestic soybean meal has changed from tight to loose, and the soybean supply is sufficient from May to July. The resumption of normal operation of oil mills suppresses the near - month continuous soybean meal to fluctuate weakly. However, there is a replenishment demand from downstream after the festival, which supports the short - term stability of soybean meal spot. In the long - term, the reduction of the US soybean planting area is basically certain, and the background of production reduction supports the bullish sentiment for the far - month soybean meal. At the same time, the development of China - US tariffs is positive for long - term US soybeans. It is still recommended to go long on the far - month soybean meal at low levels. The strategy is to go long on soybean meal 09 at a low level in the range of 2900 - 3000 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - The CBOT soybean closed at 1052.25 cents per bushel this week, down 6.00 points from last week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.57%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 2899 yuan per ton, down 21 points from last week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.72% [8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost Side - **Weather and Sowing**: In the US soybean - producing areas, the rainfall is average and the temperature is gradually decreasing. As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than the market expectation of 31%, higher than 18% of the previous week, 24% of the same period last year, and the five - year average of 23% [12][21] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of May 1, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/2025 season were 377,000 tons, down from 428,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales for the 2025/2026 season were 10,000 tons, down from 50,000 tons in the previous week [12][24] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of May 3, the harvesting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 97.7%, up from 94.8% last week, higher than 94.3% of the same period last year and the five - year average of 96.3%. The estimated export volume in May is 12.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 870,000 tons. As Brazilian soybeans are exported in large quantities, the near - month premium of Brazilian soybeans has declined again [12][27][34] - **Argentine Soybeans**: As of May 2, the Argentine soybean harvesting rate was 23%, up from 14% last week, lower than 36.2% of the same period last year [12][30] 3.2.2 Supply - In the 18th week (April 26 - May 2), a total of 25 ships of soybeans, about 1.625 million tons, arrived at domestic full - sample oil mills [12][38] 3.2.3 Demand - In the 19th week (May 3 - May 9), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%, 103,000 tons higher than the forecast. The trading volume of soybean meal was 1.0584 million tons, and the pick - up volume was 603,900 tons [12][38][42] 3.2.4 Inventory - In the 18th week of 2025, the soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts of major domestic oil mills all increased. The soybean inventory was 4.7464 million tons, an increase of 151,600 tons from last week, a year - on - year increase of 556,300 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 82,100 tons, an increase of 7300 tons from last week, a year - on - year decrease of 443,000 tons [12][45] 3.3 Spread Tracking - No specific content provided for spread tracking other than listing the types such as the 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread [51]
瑞士与美国举行建设性贸易谈判,希望紧随英国之后达成协议
news flash· 2025-05-09 15:32
瑞士与美国举行建设性贸易谈判,希望紧随英国之后达成协议 金十数据5月9日讯,周五,瑞士方面表示,他们与美国官员举行了"建设性"贸易谈判,并希望很快效仿 英国,与特朗普政府签署一项协议。在日内瓦与美国财长贝森特和贸易代表贾格里尔会面后,瑞士联邦 主席凯勒-祖特尔表示,瑞士可能是下一个与美国就关税达成协议的国家。此前,特朗普威胁要对瑞士 出口到美国的商品征收31%的关税,理由是瑞士对美国存在巨大的商品贸易逆差。但祖特尔在谈判时的 主要论点是,如果把服务业考虑在内,赤字就会被抵消。 ...
美元兑瑞郎跌超0.1%,刷新日低至0.8291。瑞士联邦主席认为,(继英国之后)瑞士可能是下一个与美国签署关税协议的国家。美国将避免再次提高关税。
news flash· 2025-05-09 14:14
Group 1 - The US dollar has depreciated against the Swiss franc, dropping over 0.1% to a daily low of 0.8291 [1] - The Swiss Federal President suggests that Switzerland may be the next country to sign a tariff agreement with the US, following the UK [1] - The US is expected to avoid raising tariffs again [1]
瑞士联邦主席表示,瑞士可能是下一个与美国签署关税协议的国家。
news flash· 2025-05-09 14:12
瑞士联邦主席表示,瑞士可能是下一个与美国签署关税协议的国家。 ...
反转再反转!资金大变脸?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 09:09
Group 1 - The core point of the news is the volatility of gold prices, with significant fluctuations observed during the Asian trading session, driven by various market factors [1][3][4] - Gold prices saw a sharp increase, reaching a high of $3414.706 per ounce before experiencing a decline to a low of $3319.835 per ounce, indicating a drop of over $90 from the peak [1][3] - Goldman Sachs reported that the recent surge in gold prices was primarily due to active buying by Asian officials, with most price movements occurring during Asian trading hours [7][8] Group 2 - The data from the ETF market shows a net outflow of over 7 billion, while the SGE Gold 9999 ETF recorded a net inflow of 936 million, highlighting a shift in investment preferences [9][11] - The report indicates that Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant inflows, surpassing those of gold ETFs, with the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF receiving $6.96 billion this year, compared to $6.5 billion for the largest gold ETF [13] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for six consecutive months, with a total of 73.77 million ounces as of the end of April, reflecting a slower growth rate compared to previous months [14] Group 3 - The public fund industry in China has introduced a significant reform document aimed at transitioning from a focus on scale to one on quality, with 25 reform measures outlined [19][20] - Key measures include establishing a performance-based fee structure for funds, enhancing long-term performance assessments, and promoting the growth of equity investment within public funds [19][20] - This reform is expected to have a profound impact on the industry landscape and wealth management for residents, emphasizing the importance of returns over mere asset accumulation [20]
五一小长假,利好颇多,A股明日高开能否高走?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-05 09:58
2、上周五美国最新4月的非农就业数据,录得17.7万人,高于市场预期的13万人。非农就业数据公布之后,市场大幅降低6月份美联储的降息预期,低至 50%。大家似乎可以不用太过担心美国陷入经济衰退的风险,不过有意思的是,上个月公布的非农就业数据再次下修5万人。 你的假期余额已经不足,好消息是A股明天开市,大家有可以愉快的投资了! 这个节假日,重大消息并不多。外围市场最为关注的三件事情: 1、日本央行议息,此次继续按兵不动,没有继续加息。不过在周末最新一年一度的伯克希尔股东大会上,股神巴菲特表示会在未来50年内继续投资日本 五大商社。近期日本股市基本上走出了4月初毛衣战的阴霾,收复了大部分跌幅。 预计明天A股开盘小幅高开是板上钉钉的事情,但是高开之后会怎么走?是继续高走还是低走?这是大家关心的事情。 鉴于此前多次节假日期间港股,A50等中国资产涨幅较好,结果轮到A股开盘之后就是高开低走的画面。这次会有什么不一样? 此次,节前利好预期并不满,别忘了周三的市场格局是银行调整,小票回暖的格局。另外,五一假日出行人数,消费数据预计会有不错的涨幅。当然,重 点是要看人均消费数据,而不是整体的量。 总之,这次五一假期,持仓过节 ...