美国联邦储备局如市场预期再度宣布降息，并同步重启国库券购买计划，双重政策利好持续提振黄金市 场走势。受此影响，国际金价近期稳步攀升，截至12月12日收盘，金价报4299.63美元，全周累计上涨 2.43%，创下阶段性亮眼表现。市场分析普遍认为，宽松政策基调下，金价短期涨势有望延续。 宽松政策的落地迅速传导至黄金市场。在美联储降息决议公布后，金价随即开启上行走势，连续两个交 易日保持上涨态势，最终在周五收于4299.63美元的高位。从周度表现来看，2.43%的涨幅凸显市场对黄 金资产的追捧热度，也印证了政策调整对贵金属市场的直接影响。 对于后市走向，市场机构和分析师给出了明确的看涨信号。Kitco黄金调查数据显示，在参与调查的13 名专业分析师中，多达11人预计来临一周金价将继续上涨，占比超84%；仅有2人认为金价将维持横盘 整理，无人做出看跌预判。这一调查结果充分反映出市场对黄金短期走势的强烈信心。 业内专家普遍认为，美联储的双重宽松举措是推动金价上涨的核心驱动力。RJO期货高级市场策略师帕 维罗尼斯指出，美联储在推进降息的同时重启国库券购买，不仅降低了市场融资成本，更有效加强了金 融体系的资本支持，这一组合 ...

Core Insights - The global stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, driven by the AI investment boom and loose monetary policies, with many indices, including US stocks, reaching historical highs [2] - Billionaires are optimistic about investment opportunities in China and Western Europe, with 40% of respondents favoring Western Europe and 34% favoring Greater China for the next 12 months, significantly up from 18% and 11% respectively in 2024 [2] - Over a five-year horizon, the outlook for Greater China has also improved, with the percentage of respondents expecting positive investment opportunities rising from 31% in 2024 to 48% in 2025 [2] North America Market Sentiment - There has been a significant decline in optimism regarding the North American market, with only 63% of billionaires favoring it in 2025, down from 80% in 2024 [4] - Concerns over multiple risk factors, particularly tariffs, have influenced this shift, with 66% of respondents identifying tariffs as a major potential negative impact on the market environment [4] - Other concerns include geopolitical conflicts (63%), policy uncertainty (59%), and higher inflation (44%) [4] Investment Preferences - Billionaires plan to increase their investments in private equity, hedge funds, developed market equities, and emerging market equities over the next 12 months, with 49% indicating plans to increase exposure to private equity [4] - The survey indicates that 43% of respondents plan to increase investments in hedge funds and developed market equities, while 42% are looking to invest more in emerging market equities [4] Regional Investment Trends - The UBS Billionaire Survey 2025 highlights varying investment preferences across regions, with significant interest in private equity and hedge funds in the Americas and EMEA [5] - In the Asia-Pacific region, 61% of billionaires plan to increase their exposure to hedge funds, indicating a strong regional preference for alternative investments [5]

Core Insights - The global stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, driven by the AI investment boom and loose monetary policies, with many indices, including the US stock market, reaching historical highs [1] Group 1: Investment Sentiment - Billionaires are increasingly optimistic about investment opportunities in China and Western Europe, with 40% of respondents favoring Western Europe for the next 12 months, up from 18% in 2024 [1] - Similarly, 34% of billionaires see potential in the Greater China market for the next 12 months, a significant increase from 11% in the previous year [1] - Over a five-year horizon, the outlook for Greater China has also improved, with the percentage of respondents optimistic rising from 31% in 2024 to 48% in 2025 [1] Group 2: North America Market Sentiment - In contrast, optimism towards the North American market has sharply declined, with only 63% of billionaires favoring it in 2025, down from 80% in 2024 [4] - Concerns over multiple risk factors, particularly tariffs, are driving this shift, with 66% of respondents identifying tariffs as a major potential negative impact on the market environment [4] - Other significant concerns include geopolitical conflicts (63%), policy uncertainty (59%), and higher inflation (44%) [4] Group 3: Investment Areas - Billionaires plan to increase their exposure to private equity, with 49% indicating plans to invest more in this area over the next 12 months [5] - Other areas of interest include hedge funds (43%), developed market equities (43%), and emerging market equities (42%) [5] - The survey indicates a strong preference for public and private equity investments among billionaires, reflecting a strategic shift in their investment focus [6]

进入2025年末，黄金和白银市场的表现引人注目。截止12月8日，纽约黄金主力期货合约在今年的涨幅已经超过50%，白银的涨幅更是突破了90%。这个上 涨速度可以说是空前的，既让投资者激动，也让市场对未来的空间充满疑问。从驱动的逻辑和历史周期来看，贵金属的上涨和全球货币政策的转变息息相 关，而当前正是观察这个趋势的关键节点。 根据以往的经验，黄金价格通常会提前反应对利率下调的预期。所以，接下来走势的关键，就在于我们怎么分析货币政策，尤其是美联储未来的走向还有多 少空间可以想象。 放眼到2025年12月初，支撑金银价格继续短期上涨的主要原因还没有出现根本性的崩盘。目前市场主流的预期是，美联储在2025年12月的利率会议和2026年 上半年，很大可能会继续保持降息的趋势。 在宽松的货币环境里，持有黄金这类没有利息的资产的机会成本大大降低，资金投入的热情也因此上升。与此同时，美元的汇率也会受到压力变得疲软，以 美元计价的金银资产自然会得到直接的利好支撑，这个传导机制还在不断发挥作用。 回顾近二十年来黄金价格的主要上涨时期，很容易就会发现一条明显的主线：那就是全球主要央行，尤其是美联储的货币政策循环，才是推动黄金走向的核 ...

注意价格剧烈波动风险 贵金属周报 2025/12/13 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度总结 ◆ 本周行情回顾：美联储鸽派降息后贵金属价格本周表现十分强势，截至周五日盘收盘，沪金涨1.00%，报970.66 元/克，沪银涨8.80%，报 14892.00 元/千克；COMEX金涨1.68%，报4309.30 美元/盎司，COMEX银涨11.20%，报63.98 美元/盎司； 10年期美债收益率报4.14 %；美元 指数跌0.72%，报98.34 ； ◆ 本周四凌晨美联储议息会议进行鸽派降息操作，降息25个基点令联邦基金目标利率区间降至3.50%-3.75%的同时重启扩表，令金银价格得到 支撑： 1.内部分歧方面: 联储官员投票结果鹰派程度低于市场预期，仅古尔斯比和施密特投出反对票，并非是高达4-5个票委的反对降息。 特朗 ...

2025.12. 13 本文字数：1409，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 受博通与甲骨文引发的人工智能泡沫担忧情绪影响，叠加部分美联储官员发声反对宽松货币政策、推 高美国国债收益率，美股主要指数周五全线走低。截至收盘，道指跌245.96点，跌幅0.51%，报 48458.05点，纳指跌1.69%，报23195.17点，创两周新低，标普500指数跌1.07%，报6827.41 点。 本周，道指累涨1.05%，纳指累跌1.62%，标普500指数累跌0.63%。 【热门股表现】 博通跌11.4%，市值蒸发约2300亿美元。 此前该芯片制造商表示，公司第一财季综合毛利率将出现 环比下滑。 甲骨文下跌4.8%，尽管公司否认关于其为人工智能公司 OpenAI打造的数据中心项目延期的报道， 其股价在前一交易日大跌超10%后周五继续下挫。 费城半导体指数跌5.1%， AMD跌4.8%，英伟达跌3.3%，英特尔跌4.3%。今年早些时候曾受益于 人 工 智 能 投 资 热 潮 的 部 分 个 股 ， 在 周 五 同 样 遭 遇 重 挫 。 晟 碟 （ SanDisk ） 暴 跌 14.6% ， CoreWeav ...

今日周五（12月12日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于969附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂969.22元/克， 涨幅1.18%，最高触及969.92元/克，最低下探955.50元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 然而，美联储主席鲍威尔在回答问题时的表态，让一些投资者感到他对就业形势的担忧似乎超过了通 胀。他一度表示，就业市场面临"显著的下行风险"。这种态度转变，使得市场预期发生了微妙变化。 加拿大皇家银行资本市场美国利率策略主管布莱克·格温指出，市场预期的转变很大程度上反映了投资 者对鲍威尔可能如何根据经济数据做出反应的理解。但他也警告说，随着鲍威尔任期即将结束，他的观 点影响力可能会逐渐减弱。 分析人士还警告称，如果特朗普成功推动美联储大幅降息，可能会损害投资者对央行维持物价稳定承诺 的信心，反而可能导致长期国债收益率上升。同时，美联储内部的分歧也可能使债券市场波动性加大， 收益率保持在略高于正常水平的位点，以补偿投资者承担的风险。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 沪金主力合约延续强势，站稳950元/克关键支撑，日线级别维持上升通道，短期均线多头排列，MACD ...

来源：张志专栏 隔夜美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国初请失业金人数创近四年半最大增幅，但劳动力市场仍然稳定，初请失业金人数激增4.4万人，经季节调整后为23.6万 人，增幅创近四年半以来最大，但这可能并不意味着劳动力市场出现实质性疲软，因为此类数据在年末假期前后波动较大。 对于昨天凌晨的美联储降息动作，从华尔街最新的观点来看，普遍认为美联储12月会议虽流露鹰派信号，如内部罕见分歧、强调数据依赖，但并未动摇其宽 松基调。华尔街大行主流预期仍指向明年初继续降息，摩根大通、摩根士丹利与花旗一致预测明年1月将再次降息。 另外昨天议息会议之后，美联储理事会的七名成员一致通过重新任命11位地区联储银行总裁。除计划明年初退休的亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克外，所有地区 联储银行总裁都获得重新任命。而这个要退休的博斯蒂克又是一位鹰派的官员，一旦他也被换了的话，可以想象明年美联储的立场会变的多么的鸽派，水量 大到难以想象。 贵金属方面 目前白银疯涨仍在继续，纽约银日内涨幅一度达6.0%。分析师认为供需失衡和宽松利率环境让今年白银涨势超过黄金涨势，周四金银比达67倍、逼近2021 年低点。周四现货白银价格触及64.28美元/盎司的历史高 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has prioritized concerns over the labor market, leading to a 25 basis point rate cut with a 9-3 voting outcome [1] - There are indications that if the labor market remains weak, policymakers may lean towards further rate cuts in the future [1] - Jerome Powell highlighted that employment growth may have been negative in recent months, suggesting a need for more accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Powell referred to a "systematic overestimation" of job growth, with a preliminary estimate indicating that employment growth was overestimated by 911,000 over the past 12 months [2] - The balance between supporting the labor market and controlling inflation will be central to policy-making as the Fed approaches 2026 [2] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding the direction of interest rates, with some opposing the recent cut and others suggesting further easing may be necessary [2] Group 3 - If inflation is subsiding while the labor market remains weak, the Fed is expected to adopt a more accommodative stance, especially with Powell set to step down in May [3] - Market expectations indicate that conditions for further rate cuts will be met if labor demand weakens and unemployment rises [3] - Futures markets suggest that the next rate cut may not occur until April of next year, with a possibility of two or even three cuts in 2026 [3]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【惠誉预计2026年美国杠杆融资违约率下降】12月11日，惠誉评级分析师在报告中称，随着美联储持续 降息，美国杠杆融资领域违约率预计2026年将下滑。分析师指出，"更为宽松的货币政策"会缓解高负债 发行人高额利息支出压力。他们预计，2026年底美国杠杆贷款违约率介于4.5%至5.0%，高收益债违约 率在2.5%至3.0%之间。 ...