Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The "Big and Beautiful" bill has passed, the U.S. debt ceiling will still expand, Trump has repeatedly called for replacing the Fed Chairman, and a relatively loose monetary policy is needed to support it, so gold is expected to remain relatively strong [8][9] - The gold-silver ratio is at a high level, and some so-called safe-haven demand may flow to silver, but due to the relatively high volatility of silver itself, more attention should be paid to position control and stop-loss protection when operating, and the silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern [9] Market News and Important Data - Trump's chief trade advisor Peter Navarro criticized Powell for refusing to cut interest rates, saying it could be his third major policy mistake in six years, and if he continues the tight monetary policy route at the July 29 Fed meeting, he will become the worst Fed Chairman in history [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On July 8, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 771.66 yuan/gram, closed at 776.22 yuan/gram, up 0.64% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 187,574 lots and an open interest of 179,131 lots. The night session opened at 774.98 yuan/gram and closed at 769.52 yuan/gram, down 0.65% from the afternoon close [2] - On July 8, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,856 yuan/kilogram, closed at 8,953 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 418,168 lots and an open interest of 338,144 lots. The night session opened at 8,940 yuan/gram and closed at 8,908 yuan/gram, down 0.10% from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 8, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.40%, up 0.05% from the previous trading day, and the 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.52%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On July 8, 2025, on the Au2502 contract, the long position changed by 79 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position changed by 46 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 245,162 lots, down 7.74% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2502 contract, the long position decreased by 231 lots, and the short position decreased by 170 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 715,924 lots, down 5.78% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 946.51 tons, down 1.15 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF position was 14,935.15 tons, up 66.41 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On July 8, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -0.23 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -665.35 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 86.70, down 0.27% from the previous trading day, and the price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 90.59, up 0.58% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On July 8, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 28,986 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 319,210 kilograms, down 41.92% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 13,086 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 21,270 kilograms [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the synchronized shift towards accommodative monetary policies by Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway in response to global economic slowdown and rising trade tensions, aiming to boost economic growth and stabilize weak inflation levels [1][4][6] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank announced a 25 basis point cut to 0% on June 19, marking its sixth rate cut since March 2024 and the end of a two-and-a-half-year period of positive interest rates, driven by easing inflation pressures and a weakening global economic outlook [3][4] - Sweden's central bank lowered its benchmark rate from 2.25% to 2.00%, the second cut this year, to stabilize inflation around the 2% target and stimulate weak domestic demand amid slowing GDP growth and a depressed housing market [3][4] - Norway's central bank also cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, the first reduction since 2020, with expectations of further cuts by the end of the year, potentially bringing rates down to 3.75% [3][4] Group 3 - The primary reasons for the collective rate cuts by European central banks include persistently weak inflation and the appreciation of local currencies, which pressure exports and financial market stability [4][5] - Weak inflation provides a "room for relaxation" in monetary policy, as commodity prices stabilize and supply chains recover, leading to a gradual decline in inflation rates across Europe [5][6] - The appreciation of local currencies, such as the Swiss franc, significantly hampers export competitiveness, with the USD/CHF exchange rate dropping nearly 10% by 2025, creating pressure on export-driven economies like Switzerland [5][6] Group 4 - The global economic integration means trade conflicts can lead to reduced investment and consumer confidence, particularly affecting small open economies like Norway and Sweden, prompting central banks to pursue monetary easing to lower financing costs and stabilize market expectations [6] - The collective rate cuts signal a strong message that global economic uncertainty is reshaping national policy orientations, with monetary policy returning to a loose stance to support economic stability amid inflation decline and trade tensions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand's meeting minutes indicate that monetary policy should remain accommodative to support economic growth [1] Group 1 - The central bank emphasizes the importance of maintaining a loose monetary policy to foster economic development [1] - There is a recognition of the need for continued support in light of current economic conditions [1] - The minutes reflect a consensus among policymakers on the necessity of an accommodative stance [1]

Report Summary Market News and Important Data - Trump sent tariff letters to 14 countries on August 1, 2025, imposing 25% tariffs on imported goods from Japan and South Korea, and 25% - 40% tariffs on Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, etc. An additional 10% tariff will be imposed on countries aligning with the anti - US policies of BRICS countries. The suspension period for reciprocal tariffs was extended to August 1 [1]. - White House officials stated that specific country tariffs and industry tariffs will not be stacked. The Fed Chair candidate Wash suggested lowering interest rates, and White House trade advisor Navarro called on the Fed Council to intervene in Powell's stance [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On July 7, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 775.38 yuan/gram, closed at 771.30 yuan/gram, down 0.74% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 190,256 lots, and the open interest was 175,760 lots. In the night session, it opened at 771.66 yuan/gram and closed at 775.68 yuan/gram, up 0.36% from the afternoon close [2]. - On July 7, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,919 yuan/kilogram, closed at 8,872 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 261,611 lots, and the open interest was 229,481 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,856 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,916 yuan/kilogram, down 0.19% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 7, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield closed at 4.35%, with a change of 0.05% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year yields had no available change data [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On July 7, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, the long position changed by 36 lots, and the short position changed by 13 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 265,734 lots, down 10.42% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2502 contract, the long position decreased by 112 lots, and the short position decreased by 387 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract was 676,826 lots, down 20.03% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the gold ETF position was 947.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,868.74 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 13.16 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 613.51 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 86.94, down 0.22% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 90.06, with a change of - 1.64% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On July 7, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 38,836 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 549,594 kilograms, up 32.24% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,392 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 25,800 kilograms [7]. Investment Suggestions - Gold: It is still recommended to buy on dips for hedging operations, considering Trump may face more obstacles after promoting the "big and beautiful" bill, and such a bill requires a relatively loose monetary policy [8]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver prices are slightly stronger than gold due to occasional rebounds in risk sentiment and the gold - silver ratio deviating from the central level for a long time. It is also recommended to buy on dips [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8]. - Options: Put on hold [8]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% in July, with further cuts expected in August and November, leading to a terminal rate of 3.10% [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point cut in the cash rate to 3.60% during the July meeting, a prediction fully priced in by the market [1] - The expectation is for consecutive rate cuts in August and a final cut in November, resulting in a terminal rate of 3.10% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Weak GDP data and a slowdown in private demand suggest a risk of entering a deeper easing cycle [1] - The tone of private demand is expected to gradually become more moderate, while the labor market remains described as "tight" [1] Group 3: Policy Statement Expectations - The latter part of the policy statement is anticipated to remain largely unchanged, emphasizing inflation targets and a somewhat "restrictive" policy stance [1] - The phrase "severe downside scenario" may be removed due to the lack of updated monetary policy forecast statements [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to implement its first consecutive interest rate cut in six years, lowering the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% during the upcoming monetary policy meeting on July 8 [1] - The cumulative reduction in the current easing cycle will reach 75 basis points, supported by domestic economic data indicating low consumer confidence and weak household spending [1] - The market anticipates further rate cuts later in the year, potentially bringing the cash rate down to 3.1%, with 3.35% seen as a critical point for pausing policy to assess the impact of previous easing measures [4] Group 2 - The upcoming meeting is significant as it marks the first participation of new Treasurer Jenny Wilkinson in interest rate decisions, highlighting female leadership in Australia's core economic institutions [7] - The RBA's dovish stance aligns with recent rate cuts from central banks in Europe, Canada, and the UK, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's plans to maintain its policy until mid-2025 [7] - Market participants will closely monitor RBA Governor Michele Bullock's statements regarding future policy direction to gauge the pace and extent of the easing cycle [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) indicates the need for a more accommodative monetary policy stance due to escalating geopolitical tensions and external policy uncertainties that pose potential risks to inflation [1] Group 1 - The BSP is monitoring inflation risks closely in light of geopolitical tensions [1] - External policy uncertainties are contributing to the need for a more flexible monetary approach [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Japan needs to maintain its current accommodative monetary policy stance to sustain the momentum towards achieving its price target [1]

Core Insights - In June, U.S. private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of a 95,000 job increase, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [1] - Despite the reduction in hiring, wage growth remains stable across various sectors, indicating that the labor market is still resilient [2][3] Employment Situation - The trade/transport/utilities sector added 14,000 jobs, construction added 9,000 jobs, while professional/business services lost 56,000 jobs, manufacturing gained 15,000 jobs, and financial services decreased by 14,000 jobs [1] - The overall wage growth for retained employees remained unchanged at 4.4%, while wage growth for job switchers slightly decreased from 7.0% to 6.8% [2] Economic Implications - The weak ADP employment data may heighten concerns about economic momentum and could lead the Federal Reserve to consider a more accommodative monetary policy stance [2] - The performance of the labor market is crucial for assessing economic health, especially in the context of easing inflation pressures [3] - Market expectations are leaning towards a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, influenced by the recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2][3]

泰国央行副行长：货币政策应保持宽松以支持经济。 ...