在此次会议召开前一个月，9月的央行政策会议上已有两名委员会成员提议加息。知情人士表示，在该 会议上，由9人组成的政策委员会可能会继续讨论加息的合适时机。 此外，日本自民党总裁高市早苗21日在临时国会众议院和参议院首相指名选举中均胜出，当选日本第 104任首相。下周的会议将是其上任后的首次日本央行政策会议。高市早苗以支持宽松货币政策闻名， 她当选首相的可能性上升后，市场对下周会议加息的预期已有所降温。 知情人士透露，日本央行官员表示，央行将继续与政府保持密切合作，同时政策决定将完全取决于 对"物价稳定目标实现进展"的评估。部分官员指出，只需对新政府可能实施的经济与财政政策进行初步 评估，就有可能决定是否加息。 从隔夜互换指数定价来看，交易员认为本月加息的概率约为25%——尽管本周这一概率略有上升，但仍 远低于上月末约70%的水平；12月会议加息的概率则升至约38%。 许多关注日本央行的分析师认为，该央行不愿在高市早苗上任后立即采取行动，以避免重蹈过去因加息 与政府产生冲突的覆辙。高市早苗的经济顾问本田悦朗（Etsuro Honda）表示，10月加息为时过早，但 12月加息基本无问题。 据知情人士透露，尽管日本经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Vietnamese stock market experienced its largest decline since April, with the MSCI Vietnam Index dropping by 5.85% and the Ho Chi Minh Index falling by 5.18% due to investor concerns over bond issuance violations [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The decline in the stock market was triggered by the regulatory body's announcement of inspection results regarding bond market violations [4]. - The government inspection revealed various violations among 67 bond issuers, including five banks, with issues such as fund misappropriation and insufficient information disclosure [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Despite the market downturn, Vietnam's economic fundamentals remain strong, with the Ho Chi Minh Index previously reaching a historical high of 1794.58 points and a year-to-date increase of over 30% [7]. - Vietnam's GDP grew by 8.23% year-on-year from July to September, surpassing analysts' expectations of 7.15% [7]. - Exports and imports saw significant growth, with exports increasing by 24.7% and imports by 24.9% in September [7]. Group 3: Foreign Investment and Monetary Policy - Foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments rose by 15.2% year-on-year, reaching $28.54 billion, while actual FDI inflows increased by 8.5% to $18.8 billion [7]. - The central bank is maintaining a loose monetary policy to stimulate loans and growth, with a projected credit growth of 19%-20% by year-end [8]. - The upcoming upgrade of Vietnam from a "frontier market" to an "emerging market" by FTSE Russell is expected to unlock billions in foreign investment [8][9].

日本股市再创新高！ 今日（10月20日），日本股市高开高走，日经225指数大涨超1600点，史上首次突破49000点，日内涨幅超过3%。 据媒体报道，日本自民党与维新会今日将签署联合执政协议，这意味着高市早苗已基本确定将在21日的首相指名选举中胜出。分析人士指出，政治不确定性的消 退，提振了日本股市。市场预计，高市早苗将推动实施低利率和增加政府支出等市场支持政策。 日本股市暴涨超16 00点 今日，亚太股市集体上涨。其中，日本股市走势强劲，日经225指数上涨超1600点并首次突破49000点关口，再创历史新高。 截至下午收盘，日经225指数报49185.5点，较前一交易日上涨1603点，涨幅达到3.37%。个股方面，软银集团大涨超8%，股价再创历史新高，总市值突破36万亿日 元。 | 日经225 L | | --- | | N225 | | んO1QE EO 今井 48332.71 最高 49185.50 最低 48254.83 | | 金额 振幅 1.96% 337% 160335 芯里 | | 昨收 47582.15 52周高 49185.50 52周低 30792.74 | | 相关基金 日经225ET ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets are experiencing strong upward momentum, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and economic uncertainty in the U.S. [2] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 17, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 999.80 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 3.82% with a trading volume of 640,615 lots and an open interest of 222,192 lots [1] - The Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 997.29 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 2.51 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - International gold prices have stabilized above $4,200 per ounce, with the main contract for gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closing at 966.42 yuan per gram, up 1.84% [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Expectations - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that if China halts strict rare earth export controls, the U.S. may extend the three-month exemption on tariffs against China, suggesting potential diplomatic engagement [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported little change in U.S. economic activity since early September, with weak labor market demand reinforcing expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy [2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have surged, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 94.2% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [2]

今年以来，黄金价格屡创新高，年内涨幅已突破50%。 近日，中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷在观察者网视频播客节目"思路打开"中对这波黄金牛市做出了警 告。但另一方面，从长期角度，李迅雷仍看好黄金。 谈及本轮黄金暴涨的原因，李迅雷表示，他认为这背后没有特别大的主力在推动，但存在一些诱因。 "全球经济进入到一个债务驱动时代，发债发得多，就要求利率要低。利率低了，对于黄金就有利。发 债发得越多，那就意味着，你今后印钞会印得越来越多。再加上特朗普挑起贸易事端，全面加征关税， 俄乌战争继续，特朗普又没有平息俄乌战争的能力。诸多问题对黄金价格起到了推波助澜的作用。"李 迅雷说。 "这样循环往复，也就是水多了加米粉，米粉加多了又加水。这样一来，全球货币体量越来越大。黄金 和白银本身就具有货币属性，所以如果纸币越来越多，那黄金肯定涨，这个逻辑其实很简单。"李迅雷 说。 "思路打开"是一档聚焦财经与科技、国际与社会的深度对话节目，邀请行业专家、企业家、创业者、投 资人等，解码经济现象，解读热点新闻，解析科技认知。在硬核又有趣的畅聊中，让我们一起打开思 路，探索未来。欢迎关注我们在各平台的账号 "思路打开"/"思路打开MindStre ...

贵金属日报 2025-10-17 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 1.96 %，报 981.90 元/克，沪银涨 1.72 %，报 12208.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 1.33 %， 报 4362.30 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.30 %，报 53.46 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 3.99%，美元指数报 98.29 ； 当前海外白银现货紧缺情况有所缓解，截至昨日，伦敦白银现货一月期隐含租赁利率回落至 25.9%，但依旧处于区间高位。而伦敦银及纽约银的价差则回升至 0.88 美元/盎司。同时，COMEX 白银库存持续下降，当前为 15930 吨。这显示白银现货持续从纽约流向伦敦，且并未彻底缓解 伦敦银现货的紧张情况，对其价格形成支撑。 货币政策方面，联储票委表态之间已出现明显冲突，前期表态鸽派的理事沃勒当前货币政策表 态谨慎，且对于美联储当前公布的经济展望报告呈怀疑态度。但特朗普提名的新任理事米兰则 认为美联储需要基于预测进行决定。CME 利率观测器显示，当前市场已经完全定价联储年内进 行两次降息操作，宽松货币政策预期持续支撑金银价格。 【策略观点】 贵金属价格当前已进入趋势 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw a general decline in treasury bond futures prices, with the T2512 contract down 0.04% and a decrease in its open interest. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, with the SHIBOR 7 - day rate down 0.9bp, the DR007 rate down 0.42bp, and the GC007 rate up 0.1bp. Key - term treasury bond yields in China generally rose, with the 10Y treasury bond yield up 1.05bp to 1.84%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread at 34.78bp. In the overseas market, the US 10Y treasury bond yield rose 2bp, the German 10Y treasury bond yield remained unchanged, and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield fell 0.8bp. Considering that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates, narrowing the Sino - US interest rate spread, and the domestic demand side represented by real estate is still weak, the central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with possible RRR and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter and potential treasury bond trading operations. Market liquidity is expected to return to a reasonable and sufficient level, which strongly supports treasury bond futures prices, so a bullish stance is recommended [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous trading day saw a general decline in treasury bond futures prices. For example, the TS2512 contract closed at 102.382 (down 0.002 or 0.00% from the previous day), the TF2512 contract closed at 105.730 (down 0.045 or - 0.04%), the T2512 contract closed at 108.130 (down 0.040 or - 0.04%), and the TL2512 contract closed at 114.58 (down 0.180 or - 0.16%) [2]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of the T2512 contract decreased by 7542, while that of the TF2603 contract increased by 283. The trading volume of the TL2512 contract was 122948, and that of the TS2603 contract was 1366 [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread of the TS2512 - TS2603 contract was 0.100 (previous value 0.092), the TF2512 - TF2603 contract was 0.095 (previous value 0.1100), the T2512 - T2603 contract was 0.315 (previous value 0.3050), and the TL2512 - TL2603 contract was 0.340 (previous value 0.3500) [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with the IRR of the T2512 contract's CTD bond at 1.4876%, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: The SHIBOR 7 - day rate was 1.4140% (down 0.9bp from the previous day), the DR007 rate was 1.4694% (down 0.42bp), and the GC007 rate was 1.4910% (up 0.1bp) [2]. - **Key - term Treasury Bond Yields in China**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally rose. The 10Y treasury bond yield was 1.84% (up 1.05bp), the 2Y treasury bond yield was 1.49% (up 0.31bp), and the 5Y treasury bond yield was 1.59% (up 0.49bp). The long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 34.78bp [2]. 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The US 10Y treasury bond yield was 4.05% (up 2bp), the German 10Y treasury bond yield was 2.660% (unchanged), and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield was 1.662% (down 0.8bp). The Sino - US 10Y treasury bond yield spread was - 221.2bp [2]. 3.4 Macro News and Policy - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted a 435 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on October 15, with a net investment of 435 billion yuan. It also announced a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation, with a cumulative net investment of 400 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases this month, marking a fifth consecutive month of increased roll - overs [3]. - **Financial Data**: At the end of September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 "scissors gap" reached a new low for the year. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3]. - **Economic Data**: In September, China's CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 1% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for the fifth consecutive month and reaching 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months [3]. - **External Situation**: The Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months and are expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month. The US threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China, and the EU tried to force Chinese enterprises to transfer technology to European enterprises [3].

转自：期货日报 地缘局势方面，中东局势出现缓和信号。10月13日，特朗普和20多国领导人出席沙姆沙伊赫和平峰会， 埃及、美国、土耳其和卡塔尔领导人签署一份文件，为停火协议提供担保。以色列、哈马斯也正在就加 沙计划的第二阶段进行谈判。然而加沙地区的深层次矛盾仍未解决，考虑到俄乌冲突持续、巴基斯坦与 阿富汗边境地区发生交火等其他事件，全球地缘风险仍处于高位。 对贵金属构成支撑的另一核心支柱，来自市场对美联储加速转向宽松的强烈预期。美联储主席鲍威尔10 月14日讲话释放"鸽派"信号，暗示可能在未来几个月停止收缩资产负债表，承认就业下行风险可能已经 上升，保留10月降息的可能性。美联储在10月8日公布9月议息纪要，纪要显示大多数官员认为在今年剩 余时间内进一步放松政策可能是合适的，不过也应关注通胀前景上行的风险。少数官员对降息持保留态 度，新任美联储理事米兰作为激进派代表则主张9月大幅降息50BP。海外市场预计，本年度美联储大概 率在10月、12月各降息1次。目前，据CME"美联储观察"的预测，美联储10月降息25BP的概率为 95.67%，直至12月累计降息50BP的概率为94.64%。这反映了海外市场对美联储将采 ...

即便市场真的出现较大规模的回调，由于美国政府停摆事件的影响，10月份的经济数据与就业数据势必 恶化，这将加剧市场对经济的担忧情绪，进而提升降息预期。值得注意的是，当前仍有多位美联储官员 倾向于降低降息幅度。此外，考虑到明年2026年5月鲍威尔任期届满，预计特朗普政府极有可能提名一 位更为鸽派的人士担任美联储主席一职，在此情形下，美联储可能会重新加快降息步伐。展望未来一 年，美联储走向宽松货币政策已是大势所趋，而宽松交易也将成为全球市场的主旋律。 黄金行情走势分析： 昨日午间在短短1小时内，金价先是下探至4090美元，随后便展开强劲上攻态势，剑指4200美元关口。 此番上涨行情极为迅猛，其间仅出现小幅回调，且调整幅度有限。当下，传统的黄金技术指标似乎已失 去效用，当前所形成的价格形态在历史数据中难觅踪迹，市场走势更多地受到市场共识与投资者情绪的 驱动。今晚黄金上方需重点关注4250-4260美元阻力区域。整体趋势依然看涨，交易重心应聚焦于多空 分界点的争夺情况。 来源：通鉴大师 原油操作建议 1、上方短期关注60.0-61.0一线阻力 从技术层面来看，今日黄金整体走了一个单边多头行情，完全无头绪的多头格局，那么 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The rising risk aversion is expected to support gold prices, driven by the U.S. government shutdown and delayed economic data releases [1] - President Trump announced a 100% tariff on certain commodities in November and key software export controls, further increasing risk aversion [1] - The Federal Reserve shows internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts, but the market remains optimistic about continued accommodative monetary policy [1] - Analyst Chen Yu believes that with the clear continuation of the Fed's accommodative policy and rising risk aversion, strong gold prices are likely [1] - Technically, the recent trading day showed a bullish trend, with support found at the 62-day moving average [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Despite attacks on Russian refineries, Russian oil exports have increased, while OPEC+ plans to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day in October and November [4] - The demand side is pressured by the end of the U.S. demand season and maintenance seasons in Europe, alongside deteriorating trade relations between major economies [4] - The risk of oversupply in the oil market remains high for Q4, suggesting that oil prices will likely remain at relatively low levels [4] - Technically, the recent trading day showed a slight bullish adjustment, but the market remains under pressure with key resistance at $60.62 and support at $57 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - The copper market shows potential for upward movement after testing the 20-day moving average and finding support [6] - The short-term outlook is positive, with a focus on maintaining support above $5.01 [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index is experiencing technical corrections but remains above the 62-day moving average, indicating strong bullish sentiment [7] - Short-term attention is on the support level around 46,985 [7]