Core Insights - The futures market for oils has seen a significant increase, with soybean oil's main contract rising above 8000 yuan/ton, reflecting a daily increase of 0.58% [1] - Palm oil's main contract has also experienced a notable rise of nearly 1%, reaching 8378 yuan/ton [1] - The main contract for rapeseed oil has seen its decline narrow to 0.37%, now priced at 9477 yuan/ton [1] - A key development influencing these movements is Brazil's decision to raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats oscillated and declined yesterday. Geopolitical factors caused a significant drop in crude oil prices, and the improved weather in US production areas put downward pressure on the overall oils and fats market [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,326.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 194 yuan or 2.28% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,950.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 176.00 yuan or 2.17%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,572.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 149.00 yuan or 1.53% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,480.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140.00 yuan or 1.62%, with a spot basis of P09 + 154.00, an increase of 54.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,160.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120.00 yuan/ton or 1.45%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 210.00, an increase of 56.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00 yuan or 1.52%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 178.00, a decrease of 1.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: US President Trump called on Israel to stop bombing Iran, stating that it "seriously violated" the fragile cease - fire agreement between the two countries announced a few hours ago. China's central bank and five other departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", which mentioned implementing monetary policies and strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. In the short term, the domestic soybean crushing volume remains at a peak level, with soybean oil production exceeding downstream提货量, and inventory continuing to rise. As of the end of the 25th week of 2025, the domestic soybean oil inventory was 986,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons or 3.06% compared to the previous week. Among them, the coastal inventory was 892,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons or 2.59% compared to the previous week [2] - **Import Prices**: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 613 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) was 603 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (July shipment) was 1,118 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,116 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 22 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of imported rapeseed oil from Canada (July shipment) was 1,050 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1,030 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (July shipment) was 461 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (July shipment) was 456 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (August shipment) was 462 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (July shipment) was 226 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel; US West Coast (July shipment) was 199 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (August shipment) was 200 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] Strategy - The recommended strategy is neutral [4]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 银河期货油脂日报 2025/6/24 | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7950 | (176) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8190 | | | | 8200 | 8150 | | 250 | 10 | 240 | 10 | 200 | 20 | | 棕榈油 | 8326 | (194) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8546 | | | | 8566 | 8646 | | 220 | 0 ...

油脂：市场情绪缓和 油脂震荡偏强 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | 물 | в | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 朗宗 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 8152.00 | 8084.00 | 68.00 | 0.84% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 8538.00 | 8518.00 | 20.00 | 0.23% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 9691.00 | 9703.00 | -12.00 | -0.12% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月18日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1072.75 | 1074.00 | -1.25 | -0.12% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月18日 | 美分/磅 | 54.62 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with significant differences in the oil market, leading to a volatile adjustment in the market [3] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,518 yuan/ton, a change of +72 yuan or +0.85% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2509 contract closed at 8,084 yuan/ton, a change of +112 yuan or +1.40%; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract closed at 9,703 yuan/ton, a change of +120 yuan or +1.25% [1] - **Spot**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,770 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan or +0.46%, with a spot basis of P09 + 252 yuan, a change of -32 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,250 yuan/ton, a change of +60 yuan/ton or +0.73%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 166 yuan, a change of -52 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,900 yuan/ton, a change of +120 yuan or +1.23%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 197 yuan, a change of 0 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information - **Import Prices**: Argentina's July - shipment C&F price of soybean oil was 1,143 US dollars/ton, up 59 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the September - shipment price was 1,138 US dollars/ton, up 66 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotes of imported rapeseed oil from Canada were 1,050 US dollars/ton for the July - shipment and 1,030 US dollars/ton for the September - shipment, both unchanged. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed were 616 US dollars/ton for the July - shipment and 606 US dollars/ton for the August - shipment, both unchanged. The C&F prices of US Gulf soybeans and US West soybeans for the July - shipment were 467 US dollars/ton and 462 US dollars/ton respectively, both unchanged, and the August - shipment C&F price of Brazilian soybeans was 465 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton [2] - **Import Soybean Premiums**: The import soybean premium quotes for the Mexican Gulf (July - shipment) were 229 cents/bushel, unchanged; for the US West Coast (July - shipment) were 202 cents/bushel, unchanged; for Brazilian ports (August - shipment) were 193 cents/bushel, down 1 cent/bushel [2] - **Palm Oil Exports**: According to data from the shipping survey agency ITS, Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 43.3% or 599,000 tons month - on - month to 1.983 million tons, and the exports of crude palm oil in May increased by more than four times month - on - month [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach a record high, but the tense sentiment in the international energy market and the uncertainty of weather in US soybean - growing areas support soybean prices, leading to a mild increase in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil production declined from June 1 - 15, 2025, while exports improved, reducing the inventory build - up pressure. Driven by the strength of peripheral oils and crude oil prices, Malaysian palm oil futures showed an oscillatingly strong trend [6]. - Domestically, a large number of imported soybeans have arrived at ports, oil mills are operating at a high level, and soybean oil output is relatively abundant. As the consumption of oils enters the off - season, soybean oil will continue to accumulate inventory, but the increase in import costs will strongly support soybean oil prices. The palm oil inventory has rebounded from a low level, with little change in the domestic fundamentals, and its price will continue to follow the external market. The oversupply situation of domestic rapeseed oil persists. The slow progress of China - Canada negotiations and the recent strong rise of ICE rapeseed futures support rapeseed oil prices from the cost side [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) stated on Tuesday that the soybean export volume from Brazil in June 2025 is 14.37 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 14.08 million tons. ANEC expects that the Brazilian soybean export volume in 2025 may reach up to 110 million tons, which, if achieved, will be about 13 million tons more than in 2024 [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture's June global production report shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 19.4 million tons, 4% higher than last month's expected value but 2% lower than in the 2023/24 season [3]. - In the first five months of 2025, the total export volume of Russian vegetable oils is estimated to be 2.72 million tons, a 19% decrease compared to the same period last year. The rapeseed oil export volume during the same period increased to 624,000 tons, a 26% year - on - year increase. More than 88% of it was shipped to China [3]. Futures and Spot Data - On June 18, DCE soybean oil futures closed at 8,084 yuan/ton, up 1.40%; DCE palm oil futures closed at 8,518 yuan/ton, up 0.85%; CZCE rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,703 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. On June 17, CBOT soybean futures closed at 1,074 cents/bushel, up 0.37%; CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 54.69 cents/pound, down 0.76%; MDE palm oil futures closed at 4,064 ringgit/ton, down 0.97% [2]. - On June 18, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,310 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; the spot price of palm oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,840 yuan/ton, up 0.34%; the spot price of rapeseed oil in Nantong was 9,910 yuan/ton, up 1.33% [2]. - On June 18, the soybean oil basis was 226 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the palm oil basis was 322 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the rapeseed oil basis was 207 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The registered contracts of DCE soybean oil were 17,552, unchanged; those of DCE palm oil were 540, unchanged; those of CZCE rapeseed oil were 100, an increase of 100 [2]. - On June 18, the crushing profit of imported soybeans was 77.30 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.90 yuan; that of imported rapeseed was - 11.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of imported palm oil was 32.72 yuan/ton, an increase of 70.78 yuan [2].

2025 年 6 月 17 日 棕榈油：美国生柴政策及地缘风险均有利好 豆油：豆棕价差短期回归受阻 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,436 | 涨跌幅 3.64% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,440 | 涨跌幅 0.05% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,960 | 2.23% | 7,952 | -0.10% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,505 | 2.09% | 9,549 | 0.46% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,103 | 4.48% | 4,077 | -0.42% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 55.68 | 8.77% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 1,374,614 | 449002 | 485,717 | 72,144 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 697,940 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Grease Daily Report - Report Date: June 12, 2025 - Report Author: Liu Qiannan - Research Institute: Commodity Research Institute, Agricultural Product R & D Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, oils and fats are expected to maintain a volatile trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - **Soybean Oil**: The 2509 closing price was 7688, down 6. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 7958, 7948, and 7908 respectively. Basis values were 260, 270, and 220, with Tianjin's basis up 20 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2509 closing price was 8010, up 40. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8360, 8410, and 8480 respectively. Basis values were 350, 400, and 470, with Guangdong's basis down 10 and Tianjin's down 30 [4]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2509 closing price was 9178, up 29. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9358, 9238. Basis values were 180 and 60, with no change [4]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For the 9 - 1 spread, soybean oil was 44, down 6; palm oil was 20, up 4; rapeseed oil was 148, up 7 [4]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was - 322, down 46; the OI - Y spread was 1490, up 35; the OI - P spread was 1168, down 11; the oil - meal ratio was 2.52, down 0.004 [4]. - **Import Profits**: - For 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia with a 7 - month shipment, the CNF price was 970, and the disk profit was - 311. For crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam with a 7 - month shipment, the FOB price was 1068, and the disk profit was - 1429 [4]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories (2025 Week 23)**: - Soybean oil inventory was 81.3 million tons, up from 75.5 million tons last week and down from 93.8 million tons the same period last year. Palm oil inventory was 37.3 million tons, up from 36.4 million tons last week and similar to 36.8 million tons the same period last year. Rapeseed oil inventory was 76.9 million tons, down from 78.2 million tons last week and up from 41.9 million tons the same period last year [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: In May, India's sunflower oil imports were 183,555 tons, up 1.9% month - on - month; soybean oil imports were 398,585 tons, up 10.42% month - on - month; palm oil imports were 592,888 tons, up 84.44% month - on - month. Total vegetable oil imports were 1,187,068 tons, up 33.15% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Palm Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated slightly higher. As of June 6, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 37.26 million tons, up 2.36% week - on - week, still at a relatively low level. The origin's quotes were stable with a slight decline, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight decline. The origin is expected to increase production and accumulate inventory, and palm oil lacks a clear and continuous positive driver, expected to move sideways in the short term [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated slightly lower. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 224,460 tons, and the startup rate was 63.1%, down from the previous week. As of June 6, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 81.27 million tons, up 7.66% week - on - week, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level, and the basis declined. The market is concerned about the implementation of US biodiesel, and the盘面 will be affected. The US soybean sowing is underway, and the good rate is lower than expected, but the impact is limited. The short - term 盘面 will maintain a volatile trend [8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated slightly higher. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 72,000 tons, and the startup rate was 19.19%, down from the previous week. As of May 30, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 78.2 million tons, down 0.3 million tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote was around $1050, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1300. The spot market was weak, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight increase. There are many policy disturbances in the short term, and the single - side will maintain a wide - range volatile trend. Attention should be paid to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side**: It is expected that oils and fats will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [10]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, and various spreads and price differences, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [13][16]

油脂日报 | 2025-06-12 棕榈油产量增加，油脂承压下跌 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约7970.00元/吨，环比变化-146元，幅度-1.80%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7694.00 元/吨，环比变化-64.00元，幅度-0.82%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9149.00元/吨，环比变化-39.00元，幅度-0.42%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8310.00元/吨，环比变化-180.00元，幅度-2.12%，现货基差P09+340.00，环比变化 -34.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7900.00元/吨，环比变化-70.00元/吨，幅度-0.88%，现货基差Y09+206.00， 环比变化-6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9350.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元，幅度-0.43%，现货基差OI09+201.00， 环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：MPOB报告显示，5月底马来西亚棕榈油库存为199万吨，连续第三个月增长，为2024年9月以 来的最高库存，主要因为棕榈油产量持续增长，抵消了出口前景的影响。据外媒报道，阿根廷农牧渔业国秘处公 布的数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The report predicts that short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend. It also suggests a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options trading [10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: For soybean oil, the 2509 closing price was 7758 with a decrease of 8. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8018, 8038, and 7958 respectively, with basis values of 260, 280, and 200. For palm oil, the 2509 closing price was 8116 with a decrease of 66. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8496, 8526, and 8616 respectively, with basis values of 380, 410, and 500. For rapeseed oil, the 2509 closing price was 9188 with an increase of 6. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9368, 9258, etc., with basis values of 180 and 70 [4] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread for soybean oil was 60 with a decrease of 6; for palm oil, it was 36 with a decrease of 18; for rapeseed oil, it was 142 with an increase of 1 [4] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 09 - contract Y - P spread was - 358 with an increase of 58; the OI - Y spread was 1430; the OI - P spread was 1072 with an increase of 72; the oil - meal ratio was 2.56 with a decrease of 0.01 [4] - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil disk profit for Malaysia and Indonesia was - 283, and the CNF price was 977 for the 7 - month shipment. The FOB price of Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil was 1058, and the disk profit was - 1346 [4] - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories**: As of the 23rd week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 36.4 (compared to 81.3 last week and 75.5 last year), palm oil inventory was 37.3 (compared to 36.8 last week), and rapeseed oil inventory was 76.9 (compared to 78.2 last week) [4] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1387236 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%. The inventory was 1990154 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. Imports were 68971 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%. Production was 1771621 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05% [6] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: The MPOB report was slightly bullish, but due to macro - external factors, palm oil futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. As of June 6, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 37.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.86 tons or 2.36%. The inventory was still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes were stable with a slight decline, and the import profit inversion was narrowed. There were 1 - 2 palm oil purchase ships on that day. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight decline. India's reduction of import duties is conducive to increasing palm oil imports, but the origin is expected to increase production and accumulate inventory, so palm oil lacks obvious and continuous bullish drivers and is expected to move sideways in the short term [6] - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 224.46 tons, and the operating rate was 63.1%, a decrease from the previous week. As of June 6, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 81.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.78 tons or 7.66%, at a relatively neutral and slightly lower level in the same period of history, and the basis declined. The market is still concerned about the implementation of US biodiesel, and the sowing of US soybeans is ongoing with a lower - than - expected excellent rate, but the impact is limited. The short - term disk will maintain a volatile trend [8] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly higher. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 7.2 tons, and the operating rate was 19.19%, a decrease from the previous week. As of May 30, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 78.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons, still at a high level in the same period of history. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil was around 1050 US dollars, and the import profit inversion was expanded to around - 1300. The spot market was light in trading, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight increase. There are many policy disturbances in the short term, and the single - side will maintain a large - range volatile trend [8] Part 3: Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that short - term oils will maintain a volatile trend [10] - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides 8 graphs, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, Y 9 - 1 monthly spread, P 5 - 9 monthly spread, OI 5 - 9 monthly spread, Y - P 05 spread, and OI - Y 05 spread [13][16]