（来源：吴说） 来源：市场资讯 吴说获悉，Delphi Digital 在其 2026 年市场前瞻报告中指出，全球宏观环境正由分化走向收敛，主要央 行已转向降息，财政赤字推动流动性需求上升。报告认为，随着美联储量化紧缩接近结束、财政部一般 账户可能回落及中国央行加大支持，全球流动性有望在 2026 年改善。报告还提到，全球 M2 与黄金价 格创出新高、央行持续购金，显示货币贬值趋势延续；在历史上黄金与流动性指标通常领先比特币的情 况下，比特币等资产可能受益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee is expected to continue its gradual depreciation due to export risks, being the weakest currency in Asia this year, primarily influenced by significant outflows of foreign portfolio investments amid high tariffs imposed by the US [1][1]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The Indian Rupee has been identified as the weakest currency in Asia for the current year [1]. - The depreciation of the Rupee is anticipated to persist until a favorable trade agreement is reached with the US, which could help strengthen the currency [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Intervention - The Reserve Bank of India is expected to focus on maintaining currency competitiveness to support exporters, with its interventions playing a crucial role in determining the Rupee's trajectory [1][1]. Group 3: Inflation Impact - Rising inflation starting from the fiscal year 2027 will be critical in assessing the competitiveness of the Rupee [1].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals are experiencing a significant year-end rally, with platinum prices rising sharply following substantial increases in gold and silver prices [1]. Group 1: Price Performance - As of December 17, 2023, silver leads the precious metals sector with a year-to-date increase of 128%, while platinum has risen by 113% [3]. - On December 17, domestic platinum futures opened with a strong upward trend, reaching a peak of 527.55 yuan per gram, marking the second time it hit the limit since its listing [3]. - NYMEX platinum futures prices surpassed $1,933 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 110% year-to-date, significantly outpacing gold's 64% increase [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have surged due to multiple factors, including tightening physical supply, supportive policies in the new energy sector, and geopolitical changes [5]. - The price of NYMEX platinum futures has increased by over 20% since November, with significant rises of 28% and 17% in June and September, respectively [5]. - The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a global platinum market shortage of 26.4 tons in 2025, despite a 4% year-on-year decline in total demand [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current platinum price increase is attributed to three main drivers: limited supply, awakened investment demand, and long-term growth expectations [6]. - In China, retail investment demand for platinum bars and coins has reached historical highs, reflecting investor recognition of platinum's value relative to gold [6]. - The introduction of platinum futures and options in China is expected to bolster demand, while the automotive industry's ongoing adjustments to catalyst technology will continue to support platinum demand [9]. Group 4: Predictions for 2026 - There is a divergence in predictions for platinum and palladium prices in 2026, with some analysts expecting strong price increases despite potential supply surpluses [10]. - The anticipated growth in North American automotive demand could significantly impact platinum and palladium needs, with small changes in vehicle ownership rates leading to substantial demand fluctuations [10]. - Concerns about potential tariffs on platinum group metals in the U.S. could lead to market dynamics similar to those seen in the silver market this year [11].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have experienced a significant rally towards the end of the year, with platinum now joining the surge following substantial increases in gold and silver prices [1][4]. Price Performance Summary - As of December 17, silver leads the precious metals sector with a 128% increase year-to-date, followed by platinum with a 113% rise [4]. - On December 17, domestic platinum futures reached a new high, with prices hitting 527.55 yuan per gram, marking the second instance of a price limit increase since its listing [4]. - NYMEX platinum futures prices surpassed $1933 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 113%, second only to silver's 127% [6]. Factors Driving Platinum Price Increase - The recent surge in platinum prices is attributed to three main factors: tightening supply, awakening investment demand, and long-term growth expectations [7]. - The first phase of platinum's price increase occurred from May to July due to extreme weather, aging mines, and power restrictions in South Africa, leading to a 13% year-on-year decline in platinum group metal production [6]. - The second phase, from late August to mid-October, was driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, which heightened market risk aversion and boosted platinum's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6]. Future Market Outlook - The global platinum market is expected to face a shortage of 26.4 tons by 2025, despite a projected 4% decline in total demand to 244.8 tons [9]. - Factors contributing to this shortage include structural supply constraints and increased demand from the Chinese market for physical platinum [9]. - The introduction of platinum futures and options in China is expected to bolster demand, alongside European regulatory changes that may support automotive demand for platinum [10]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from TD Securities predict that while there may be concerns about reduced demand for automotive catalysts, strong growth in North American automotive demand could lead to significant fluctuations in platinum and palladium demand [11]. - The potential for tariffs on platinum group metals in the U.S. is considered higher than for silver, which could lead to market dynamics similar to the recent silver squeeze [11]. - In contrast, Heraeus Group expresses caution, suggesting that after significant price increases, precious metals may need to undergo a period of consolidation, with industrial demand and recession risks posing downward pressure on platinum prices [12].

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices continue to rise, with significant increases observed in both domestic and international markets, driven by expectations of monetary policy changes and increased demand for precious metals [4]. Group 1: Domestic Market Performance - As of December 17, the main platinum futures contract (Pt99.99) on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange reached a closing price of 527.55 yuan per gram, marking a 7% increase and the second price limit within 15 trading days since its listing on November 27 [4]. - The platinum futures market in China is experiencing heightened investor interest, reflected in the recent price movements [4]. Group 2: International Market Performance - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the main platinum futures contract hit a record high of 1955.0 USD per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 110% [4]. - The international market is responding positively to the rising prices of platinum, indicating strong demand for the metal [4]. Group 3: Market Influences - Recent U.S. employment data showing an uptick in unemployment rates has led to increased expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, which in turn is expected to accelerate currency depreciation [4]. - The anticipated acceleration in currency depreciation is driving demand for precious metals, as investors seek to hedge against inflation and currency risks [4].

Core Insights - The Indian Rupee has experienced a significant decline, reaching historical lows against multiple Asian currencies, prompting discussions among bankers about potential intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) [1][3] - The Rupee has depreciated approximately 2.5% over the past month, influenced by ongoing dollar liquidity issues and the delay in the US-India trade agreement, which has dampened market sentiment [1][3] - Increased hedging activities by importers and cautious attitudes from foreign investors towards Indian equities have further pressured the Rupee [1][3] Market Dynamics - The dominant flow of funds has weakened the Rupee's sensitivity to daily fluctuations of similar Asian currencies, leading to a cumulative downward trend and heightened expectations for further depreciation and speculative activities [1][3] - Historically, during previous periods of Rupee weakness, the RBI has implemented substantial interventions to curb depreciation, indicating a likelihood of similar actions in the current context [1][3] - Recent interventions by the RBI included significant actions in both the spot and non-deliverable forward (NDF) markets to stabilize the Rupee [1][3] Comparative Performance - On Tuesday, the Rupee fell below the 91 mark against the US dollar, marking a 0.3% decline for the day [4] - In contrast, most Asian currencies have appreciated over the past month, with the Thai Baht rising over 3% and the Chinese Yuan, Malaysian Ringgit, and Singapore Dollar each increasing by at least 1% [5] - This disparity highlights the Rupee's significant weakness relative to its Asian counterparts, as it has reached historical lows against various currencies [5]

贵金属牛市来袭！货币贬值下，2025全球滞胀新格局藏不住了 先说说大家最关心的"滞胀"到底是什么情况。简单说就是经济没怎么涨，但物价还在涨，钱越来越不值钱。根据IMF 2025年10月发布的《世界经济展望》， 全球经济增速从2024年的3.3%降到了2025年的3.2%，2026年还会继续降到3.1%，发达经济体增速更是只有1.5%左右，创下2008年以来除衰退期外的最弱表 现 。而通胀呢？世界银行6月的报告显示，2025年全球通胀率预计为2.9%，虽然比前些年的高点降了，但还是高于疫情前的水平，而且美国、巴西、印度这 些国家的通胀压力特别明显，美国服务业通胀更是高达4.7% 。这种"增长弱、通胀高"的组合，正好是贵金属的"舒适区"，毕竟不管是抗通胀还是避险，贵 金属都是老牌子了。 不过大家可得注意，贵金属价格涨得猛，波动也特别大。就拿白银来说，最近的波动率已经飙升到60，远超历史均值，经常出现单日涨跌幅超5%的情况 。 业内专家也提醒，现在贵金属价格处于高位，投资风险不小，不管是机构还是个人，都得控制好仓位，别盲目追高，尤其是普通投资者，最好结合自己的风 险承受能力来配置，别把所有钱都投进去。 如果你最近关 ...

12月8日，据彭博社报道，印度央行行长桑贾伊·马尔霍特拉（Sanjay Malhotra）正试图在打击投机与避免过度干预之间寻找平衡。 报道称，印度央行的干预决策每天早晨在孟买南部总部做出。交易员在隔音房间接收指令，有时每分钟向市场抛售1亿美元，试图缓解印度卢比贬值 压力。 今年以来，印度卢比汇率遭遇重挫，截至发稿，印度卢比兑美元汇率累计贬值幅度接近4.5%。在31种主要货币中，印度卢比的年内跌幅仅次于土耳 其里拉、阿根廷比索。 印度央行紧急出手。 12月8日，印度卢比再度遭遇抛售，美元兑印度卢比汇率已经升破90心理大关。据最新消息，印度央行正入市干预以缓解印度卢比贬值压力，专职交 易员有时以每分钟抛售1亿美元的力度维稳汇市。 但有分析指出，印度央行进一步干预的空间可能有限，其"救市"行动已经对印度金融系统产生显著影响，自今年6月高点以来，外汇储备中的外币资 产减少约380亿美元（约合人民币2700亿元）。 印度"救市" 值得注意的是，今年以来，美元指数累计跌幅超7%。意味着，印度卢比的贬值幅度更为惨烈。 交易员表示，如果不是印度央行持续入市干预，印度卢比跌幅本会更大。 据彭博社报道，接受采访的银行家、交易员 ...

12月5日，印度央行——印度储备银行（RBI）宣布降息25个基点。这是该央行时隔6个月后再次降息， 也是今年的第4次降息，累计降息125个基点。此外，对于印度卢比的持续贬值，印度央行正在放缓干预 力度。 为何降息？ 根据印度央行发布的声明，由行长桑杰·马霍特拉（Sanjay Malhotra）领导的印度央行货币政策委员会6 名成员一致投票决定将回购利率下调25个基点至5.25%。政策立场维持中性。马霍特拉表示，低通胀和 强劲的经济增长意味着印度正处于一个"罕见的黄金时期"，但一些关键经济指标存在疲软。 路透社4日援引三名知情人士的话报道，印度央行将容忍印度货币卢比贬值，主要缘于印度经济面临多 重风险，包括贸易逆差扩大和资本外流等。 报道说，印度央行至11月一直通过积极抛售美元来支撑卢比，但在过去7个交易日中，印度央行已允许 卢比对美元汇率下跌1.3%。印度卢比对美元汇率11月3日首次跌破90卢比兑换1美元关口，创历史新 低。 消息人士说，印度央行释放容忍卢比走弱的信号表明其干预措施将主要用于抑制汇率剧烈波动或投机性 交易积聚的迹象，而非捍卫卢比的任何特定汇率水平。 其中一名不愿公开姓名的消息人士说："当基本面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee has been depreciating against the US Dollar, reaching a historic low of 89.79 on December 2, following a 0.8% decline in November, with multiple factors contributing to this trend [1][2]. Economic Performance - India's GDP growth rate for Q3 reached 8.2%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 7.3%, marking the fastest growth in six quarters [1]. - Despite strong economic data, market sentiment remains low, indicating a disconnect between economic performance and currency stability [1]. Trade Deficit - India's trade deficit surged to $32.15 billion in October, the highest in 13 months, primarily due to a sharp decline in exports to the US [1]. - Exports to the US dropped by 28.5% from May to October, falling from $8.83 billion to $6.31 billion, highlighting the negative impact of tariff policies on export momentum [1]. Foreign Investment - As of October 31, foreign investors have withdrawn over $17 billion from the Indian stock market, exacerbating downward pressure on the Rupee [2]. - The outlook for foreign capital inflows remains bleak due to growth risks associated with tariff impacts [2]. Central Bank Intervention - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has intervened in the currency market to stabilize the Rupee, particularly when it approached 89.70 against the Dollar, although interventions have been described as cautious and sporadic [2]. - RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das indicated that a 3% to 3.5% annual depreciation of the Rupee is normal, with the central bank focusing on curbing excessive volatility rather than maintaining a specific exchange rate [2]. Long-term Outlook - Some institutions, such as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, suggest that the underlying fundamentals indicate further potential weakness for the Rupee, which may lead the RBI to allow it to breach the 90 level over time [2]. - While short-term interventions may provide some market support, reversing the overall trend remains challenging [2].