在8月1日关税最后期限仅剩不到24小时之际，全球贸易谈判进入白热化阶段。美国多个主要贸易伙伴的代表团正云集华盛 顿，与特朗普政府展开最后的激烈磋商。据央视新闻，当地时间7月15日，美国总统特朗普称关税征收将于8月1日开始。 白宫的最新动态加剧了紧迫感。据媒体31日援引一位白宫官员证实，特朗普计划在周四签署新的行政命令，对未能达成协 议的国家征收更高的关税。特朗普30日通过社交媒体平台称： "8月1日的最后期限就是8月1日的最后期限——它立场坚定，不会延长。" 与此同时，据央视新闻报道，特朗普称将从8月1日起对印度输美商品征收25%的关税，高于对亚洲其他几个国家征收的 15%至20%的区间。特朗普还威胁将因印度从俄罗斯购买能源而施加额外惩罚。一系列令人眼花缭乱的操作让局势更加复 杂。 尽管外交斡旋异常紧张，美国市场目前反应平淡，标普500指数触及历史新高。然而，部分华尔街机构警告称，市场可能过 于自满，低估了贸易政策转向对经济和市场的潜在冲击。 媒体援引一位白宫官员已证实，特朗普将在周四午夜前签署新的行政命令，以确定最终的关税税率。此举旨在避免关税自 动恢复到4月份首次宣布的原始水平。目前尚不清楚特朗普是会举行 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：我们将仔细研究贸易政策如何影响企业的定价行为。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the need for a comprehensive assessment of price trends and will carefully evaluate the impact of trade policies [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is focused on understanding the overall price trends in the economy [1] - There is a cautious approach towards evaluating the effects of trade policies on the economy [1]

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the Japan-U.S. trade agreement represents a significant advancement that requires attention to the impact of trade policies on financial markets, foreign exchange markets, the Japanese economy, and prices [1] Group 1 - The Japan-U.S. trade agreement is viewed as a major progress by the Bank of Japan [1] - There is a need to monitor the effects of trade policies on various economic aspects, including financial markets and the economy [1] - The implications of the trade agreement on price levels in Japan are also highlighted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the necessity to monitor the impact of trade policies on the financial and foreign exchange markets, as well as on the Japanese economy and prices [1] Group 1 - The focus on trade policy's influence indicates a proactive approach to managing economic stability in Japan [1] - The statement suggests potential implications for monetary policy adjustments in response to trade dynamics [1] - The emphasis on financial and foreign exchange markets highlights the interconnectedness of global trade and domestic economic conditions [1]

日本央行行长植田和男：由于贸易政策导致海外经济放缓，企业利润下降，日本经济增长可能放缓。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the development of trade policies and their responses to overseas economies and prices are highly uncertain [1]

Group 1 - The market currently reflects less than a 50% chance of a rate cut in September, with expectations of no more than two cuts in the next three meetings [1] - Morgan Asset Management still anticipates a policy easing from the Federal Reserve this year, likely in December, contingent on significant deterioration in the labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting marked the first instance in over 30 years with two dissenters, indicating a desire to be seen as effective rather than overly hawkish or dovish [1] Group 2 - Despite recent increases in inflation rates, the impact of tariffs on consumer prices has been limited, with the Fed viewing tariff-driven price increases as a level change rather than a persistent inflation driver [2] - The bond market's slight increase in yields reflects the pricing effect of policy easing, while the dollar has strengthened, suggesting a more hawkish interpretation of recent Fed meetings [2] - Morgan Asset Management believes that tariffs will drag on economic growth and contribute to rising inflation throughout the year, but fiscal policy's delayed effects will boost growth by 2026 [3] Group 3 - The narrow path to avoid recession and long-term inflation pressures is seen as favorable for risk assets, although it is premature to declare the removal of policy risks [3] - Morgan Asset Management prefers quality in stock and fixed-income portfolios and is looking for relative value opportunities outside the U.S., including Europe, Japan, and emerging markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan highlights uncertainty in trade policies and their progress, which continues to significantly impact the economic and price outlook [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan acknowledges that trade policy uncertainties are prevalent [1] - The impact of these uncertainties on the economy and price outlook remains high [1]

日本央行：如果经济和物价展望实现，将会加息。 2025和2026财年经济面临下行风险。 日本的贸易政策出现积极进展，需要监控贸易政策对财政体系的冲击。 利率决议是一致通过的。 需要留意前景展望出现巨大变化的可能。 通胀预期已经温和上升。 日本实际利率处于极低水平。 物价趋势将与下半年的展望目标相一致。 物价风险大体平衡。 贸易和其他政策如何演变依旧高度不确定。 ...