神译局是36氪旗下编译团队，关注科技、商业、职场、生活等领域，重点介绍国外的新技术、新观点、新风向。 编者按：绝大多数的新年计划注定失败，因为你只是在玩一场虚荣的地位博弈。真正的改变不是靠自律"硬撑"，而是身份的彻底推倒重来。这篇 文章给出了 24 小时内重启人生的暴力拆解方案。文章来自编译。 你很有可能会放弃制定新年计划。 这也没什么。大多数人都会放弃（研究显示失败率高达 80-90%），因为从内心深处来说，大多数人其实并不想改变。也就是说，他们改变生活的 方式完全错误。他们制定新年计划仅仅是因为别人都这么做——人类总是更想给别人留下深刻印象，而不是打动自己……我们从"地位博弈"中制 造出虚浅的意义，却没能满足真正改变所需的条件。而真正的改变，远比说服自己今年要变得更自律、更高效要深刻得多。 我在这里不是想居高临下指责你。我放弃过的目标比我设定过的目标还要多十倍。我想大多数人也是如此。但事实确实是，人们试图改变生活， 却几乎每次都以彻底失败告终。这种现象甚至成了一个"梗"：健身房在 1 月份总是人满为患，到了 2 月份就恢复如常。 然而，尽管我认为新年计划很愚蠢，但反思一下你所厌恶的生活总是明智的。正如我们 ...

为什么我说 “打工，不如投资” 呢？因为二级的红利每个人都有机会吃到。如果你在 AI 或者显卡需求刚火的时候就买了英伟达，那么收益率其实未必比不上 BTC。而你想吃到这波红利，其实只需要一个能买到 $NVDA 的券商账户。如今或许机器人赛道的二级也远没到顶今天看到这条微博，我的第一反应就是 “或许机器人板块还能继续涨到年中”。A 股这边的逻辑，就是老美要有的我们也要有，加上国内股市这轮牛感觉远远还没结束，两会在三月，三月或许会出台一系列相关政策促使机器人板块进一步繁荣吧毕竟，宇树都还没正式 IPO 发行，龙头还没上架，你跟我说机器人见顶？不会吧不会吧现在我们想吃到红利就更简单了，甚至不用开通账户，直接买 onchain stocks 都行，虽然目前还有一些费率问题和流动性的问题，但对于大部分小户来说已经可以满足。我有券商账户，还是会选择券商买费率便宜，但是有时候为了速度 / 加杠杆的需求，还是会用一下 hyperliquid 之类的来开一单。而国内的股票由于政策关系，onchain 的部分很难操作，但中国公民开通 A 股券商也没啥难度，还是挺适合去试试水的币圈肯定还是会有钱赚的，我也还持有一些 BTC 现货， ...

昨晚春晚的机器人方阵，其实给我们也敲响了警钟。这就是我之前提到的焦虑之一，具身智能的爆发正在重塑生产力的底层逻辑有这两个维度的一些思考，算是暂时回应自己之前的焦虑如何解决：- 从生产关系转向生产力协同：Crypto 解决的是生产关系（分钱），AI 解决的是生产力（干活）。AI 究竟需不需要 Crypto，是由人决定的。机会可能出现在生产关系变革的时刻- 打工，可能未必比得上投资：很多人纠结要不要转行去 AI 公司打工，其实大可不必。PVP 老兵真正的优势在于对资本流向和对热钱的敏锐度。昨晚我对马男说，我的钱都是从追热点赚的，甚至能进入币圈也是因为热点，这也是一种路径依赖吧现在很明显热点是 AI 了，利用好现有的资本，去深耕美股 / AH 股二级市场，或许也是一种很好的思路一些阶段性答案Yuyue (@yuyue_chris):分享一些最近的真实焦虑：作为 985 商科背景出身，入行 Crypto 确实让自己对目前的状况比较满意，但也陷入了某种 “路径依赖”。Crypto 的经验像是特化技能，在其他科技领域很难移植面对 AI 和 Robotics ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting dynamics of geopolitical power and military capability, emphasizing that true national strength is determined by production capacity and population rather than mere wealth [6][11][30]. Group 1: Military and National Power - Palmer Luckey's company Anduril has reached a valuation of $30.5 billion, highlighting the growing importance of military technology in the current geopolitical climate [6]. - The article illustrates that despite significant financial support for Ukraine, the actual military production capabilities of Western nations are limited compared to Russia, which has a substantial advantage in artillery and personnel [11][12]. - The production capacity of artillery and tanks is critical in traditional warfare, as evidenced by the comparison of annual production rates between Russia and Western nations [12]. Group 2: Demographic Challenges - South Korea's total fertility rate is currently at 0.67, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1, indicating a looming demographic crisis that could lead to a drastic reduction in military personnel [12][13]. - Projections suggest that by 2070, North Korea could have a 2:1 advantage in eligible military personnel over South Korea, which could escalate to a 4:1 advantage by 2100 [15][16]. - The article argues that a declining population not only affects military capacity but also economic vitality, as fewer young people will be available to drive innovation and production [30]. Group 3: Societal Implications of Low Birth Rates - The article highlights the societal pressures that prevent open discussions about declining birth rates, which are seen as a critical issue for the future of nations like South Korea [22][24]. - It posits that once a society's birth rate falls below replacement levels, reversing this trend becomes exceedingly difficult, leading to a long-term demographic imbalance [25][26]. - The political landscape will shift as older populations gain more voting power, potentially prioritizing their welfare over that of younger generations [24][27]. Group 4: Geopolitical Strategy and Future Outlook - The long-term geopolitical influence of a nation is defined by its productivity, population base, and time, which are crucial in the context of the U.S.-China rivalry [28]. - The article warns that while the U.S. currently has a diverse population, a declining birth rate could undermine its economic and strategic resilience in the future [30][31]. - The decisions made today regarding family support and population growth will significantly impact the geopolitical landscape in the coming decades [32].

#生产力timeline 刷到关键词 rss，发现自己已经很久很久没有看 rss 了，这对我的影响接近于零。我想到大概十几年前，自己沉迷于各种生产力工具的，比如把各种信息流整合分类做笔记、拆解和规划自己的时间和任务。这些尝试里面，绝大部分方法都已经放弃了。最近十年，我几乎只使用印象笔记。最近五年，我几乎只看推特关注的特定列表。最近三年，我几乎只依赖日历。我对信息的焦虑基本完全消失了。或者说，之前那些浪费时间证明了对我来说绝大部分信息都没有价值。看起来，这些浪费似乎不可避免，但其中还是有一些关键变化。因为十几年前，我确实没有什么自己的可以做，看起来最正经的事情就是上班，但班并不属于自己。后来专注于自己的谋生手段，主动探索信息密度和价值是成百倍提升的。如果那个年纪的我，在今天大概率在折腾如何用 AI 收集整理信息，变成日报给我阅读。不过按照此刻的经验，我更推荐百闻不如一见，百见不如一练。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global economic dynamics, emphasizing the duality of asset differentiation driven by productivity breakthroughs and the ongoing restructuring of production relations and world order [6][19]. Group 1: Economic Structure and Asset Differentiation - The global economy has seen a phase of productivity breakthroughs, but the core contradiction lies in the incomplete restructuring of production relations and the rebuilding of world order [6][19]. - Assets are categorized into two types: those anchored in productivity growth, such as AI-related stocks and U.S. equities, and those reflecting the chaos of world order, including war-related assets and precious metals [6][19]. - This asset structure is expected to undergo transmission and recalibration within the next 12 to 18 months, aligning productivity, production relations, and world order [6][19]. Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Dynamics - Monetary and fiscal policies serve as regulatory tools, with their effectiveness contingent upon the stability of world order [6][19]. - The current chaos in world order has concentrated the core contradictions within government sectors, leading to a weakening of monetary policy effectiveness over the past decade, as seen in Japan's case [7][20]. - Fiscal deficits are not inherently problematic; the key issue is whether government spending translates into effective output, with concerns about government credit arising from world order instability [7][20]. Group 3: Effective Spending and Economic Stability - The sustainability of fiscal policy hinges on whether spending is effective, which involves stabilizing core productivity drivers and optimizing debt leverage and distribution relations [8][21]. - Historical examples from Japan and China illustrate that effective fiscal spending can stabilize productivity and economic fundamentals, even amid rising government debt [8][21]. - A balance between effective spending and income generation is crucial; without it, the risk of a "spend without revenue" scenario could lead to significant economic turmoil [9][22]. Group 4: Global Economic Challenges - The risks faced are not isolated to single economies but represent a global challenge, with potential widespread implications if major economies fall into similar predicaments [10][23]. - The European context highlights that the core issues are not merely about defense spending but rather about productivity shortfalls and lagging reforms in production relations [10][23]. - The ability of G2 countries to simultaneously adjust productivity and production relations is critical for global order reconstruction, while Europe struggles with internal political and ideological conflicts [11][24]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Once stability is achieved and productivity aligns with production relations, government debt issues are expected to ease as effective spending generates revenue to cover liabilities [12][25]. - The debate surrounding large-scale fiscal investments emphasizes that if these can be transformed into effective income through production relations adjustments, debt will not be a concern [12][25]. - Understanding the interconnectedness of productivity, production relations, world order, and monetary and fiscal policies is essential for grasping current global economic dynamics [12][25].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes the transformation of productivity, production relations, and global order, highlighting the importance of technological advancements and their impact on economic structures [4][12]. Group 1: Productivity and Technological Advancements - The past decade has seen significant shifts in productivity, with a focus on technological revolutions that began around 2015, marking a new industrial and technological era [7][9]. - The emergence of AI and its foundational technologies, such as ChatGPT, represents a critical turning point in productivity enhancement, akin to historical technological milestones [10][11]. - The investment in technological infrastructure is crucial for future productivity gains, paralleling historical discussions on infrastructure's role in economic development [11][12]. Group 2: Production Relations and Economic Structures - The discourse highlights the misalignment of production relations globally, with countries facing challenges in balancing productivity gains with economic realities [13][14]. - The need for a human-centered approach in production relations is emphasized, advocating for increased welfare and compensation to ensure stability in economic systems [14]. - The ongoing tension between productivity advancements and existing production relations suggests that without addressing these discrepancies, economic stability may be at risk [13][14]. Group 3: Global Order and Economic Implications - The current global economic order is under scrutiny, with the potential for significant upheaval if productivity advancements do not align with production relations [12][13]. - The discussion suggests that the future of global economic stability hinges on the successful integration of technological advancements into existing economic frameworks [12][14]. - The potential for a new world order is contingent upon how countries adapt their production relations in response to technological changes [14].

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Fu Peng emphasizes the importance of early-stage investment in technology and the necessity of taking risks to support innovation and progress in human civilization [3][4][5]. Group 1: Historical Context and Investment Philosophy - Fu Peng referenced two significant events from 2015 and 2016: Elon Musk's SpaceX failure, symbolizing the courage to challenge norms, and Cathie Wood's influential presentation outlining future technological paths, which attracted substantial investment [3][7]. - He argues that early-stage investments, often perceived as bubbles, are essential for the advancement of industries and technologies, highlighting the historical need for risk-taking capital to support innovation [3][4][7]. Group 2: Industry Lifecycle and Technological Evolution - Fu Peng identified 2022 as a pivotal year in the industry lifecycle, marking a transition from uncertainty to a clearer focus on AI and technological revolution, driven by mismatched production relations and global instability [4][5]. - He cited NVIDIA's 70% stock drop in 2022 as an example of a typical industry lifecycle, where a perceived bubble can lead to a significant transformation, ultimately establishing its value in AI computing [4][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Societal Implications - The emergence of ChatGPT in early 2023 is seen as a sign of progress from foundational AI infrastructure to practical applications, although current AI tools are not viewed as the most critical innovations [4][9]. - Fu Peng stressed the importance of the next 15 to 18 months in determining whether the current technological advancements will genuinely enhance productivity and reshape global production relations, or if they are merely illusory [5][9]. - He highlighted the need for a focus on human-centered production relations, advocating for increased welfare and compensation to prevent societal collapse and ensure a stable world order [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for big tech, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," is being dialed back as competition from artificial intelligence increases, leading to higher spending and potential profit margin compression [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The Magnificent Seven currently represent about 30% of the S&P 500 market cap, suggesting room for reduced exposure in this area [4]. - The overall market is expected to see a 10% gain in 2026, with projections of the S&P 500 rising from approximately 7,000 to 7,700 [9]. - Long-term projections suggest the S&P 500 could reach 10,000 by the end of 2029, based on anticipated earnings of $500 per share in 2030 [10]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - While underweighting the Magnificent Seven, there is still bullish sentiment towards semiconductors and specific stocks in the communication services sector, such as Meta and Netflix [5][6]. - The combination of information technology and communication services accounts for 45% of the S&P 500, raising questions about the sustainability of further overweighting these sectors [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Earnings growth has been strong, with projections of earnings per share increasing from $265 this year to $310 next year, aligning with industry analyst consensus [13]. - The economy has shown resilience, with real GDP growth tracking at nearly 4% in Q2 and about 3.5% in Q3, despite some labor market weaknesses [14][15]. Group 4: Labor Market Dynamics - There are structural issues in the labor market, including a skills mismatch for new graduates and a slowdown in hiring due to companies assessing AI's impact on productivity [17][18]. - The unemployment rate remains low for adults aged 30 and older, but younger job seekers face challenges due to the retirement of skilled baby boomers [18]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The NASDAQ 100 has been a strong performer, averaging a 20% gain over the past decade, suggesting it may be a good long-term investment opportunity [23]. - The strategy involves short-term focus on the S&P 500 while looking for opportunities to buy the Magnificent Seven at lower valuations [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the true measure of asset value lies in productivity, which is essential for improving human life and is the foundation of a nation's strength [2][4]. Group 1: China's Economic Strength - The year 2025 is highlighted as a significant year for reassessing China's strength on a global scale [5]. - China's assets have been severely undervalued in the past, and a mean reversion is expected in the future [6]. - Unlike Japan, which has seen a decline in productivity since the 1990s, China continues to innovate and maintain strong productivity levels [8][14]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics - Despite predictions of a significant decline in exports due to the US-China trade war, China's trade surplus reached a record high, exceeding $1 trillion in the first 11 months of the year [17][20]. - The global market has become increasingly dependent on China, indicating that the US's trade war efforts are likely to fail [21][22]. - The article notes that European countries are becoming more reliant on Chinese products while struggling to sell their goods to China [30][31]. Group 3: Structural Issues and Global Demand - The article argues that deflation and overcapacity are merely structural issues and not indicative of a long-term economic decline [51]. - There is a vast unmet demand within China and globally, suggesting that production capacity is still insufficient [52]. - As China's manufacturing capabilities improve, more people worldwide will be able to afford industrial goods, leading to increased global productivity [47][48]. Group 4: Military Power and Asset Revaluation - China's military strength is presented as a crucial factor supporting the revaluation of its assets, providing a deterrent against external pressures [54][55]. - The article suggests that developed countries will need to adopt peaceful cooperation with China rather than confrontational approaches [55]. Group 5: Changing Perceptions - The year 2025 is identified as a pivotal moment for Western countries to change their perceptions of China, recognizing its advanced productivity and the necessity of engaging with its supply chains [56][57]. - The article concludes that as global perceptions of China shift, the value of Chinese assets will continue to appreciate, driven by strong productivity advancements [59][60].